Sachin=GOD Posted July 4, 2013 Posted July 4, 2013 who gave the go-ahead for Modi to become CM of Gujarat? Did Vajpayee stop that? NO because his political influence was waning when his health started to deteriorate. As far as acceptability is concerned, Advani is not even acceptable to his party cadre. A general without troops is going to lose easily. Vajpayee was in perfect health when Modi became CM :dontknow: you are missing the point - I am not saying that Advani should be the leader before the elections, I am saying that post poll a consensus can be built around his name because allies now find him to be more acceptable. You (and other fans of Modi) may think that the entire party is behind him and everyone in the BJP loves him but thats not even close to the situation at the ground level. There are a LOT of influential leaders who are in Advani's favor and are waiting for the right moment to come out in the open and show their support for him.
The Outsider Posted July 4, 2013 Posted July 4, 2013 That was a matter internal to the BJP. But once a party goes to the people with a PM candidate and gets votes in his name' date=' then it would be a betrayal of the mandate of the voters to dump him. Not to mention the humiliation suffered. There was no humiliation of Advani by projecting Vajpayee. Vajpayee always had a high stature and was more senior than Advani and popular amongst the cadre as well.[/quote'] I might be wrong but I don't think BJP will be declaring an official PM candidate this time. They'll project Modi as the face in the elections but if they get enough seats will choose someone acceptable to the allies as PM.
The Outsider Posted July 4, 2013 Posted July 4, 2013 Who shunted him out ? He himself stepped out of the race in favor of Vajpayee. I think he resigned from the Lok Sabha in the wake of the Hawala scandal and thus Vajpayee become the de facto face of the party before 1996 elections' date=' which the BJP then fought under Vajpayee's leadership.[/quote'] That's why shunted in the quotes. He realized either on his own or through influence that BJP won't be able to form a government with him as the face even though he was the single largest factor in their rise till that point.
FischerTal Posted July 4, 2013 Posted July 4, 2013 Vajpayee was in perfect health when Modi became CM :dontknow: you are missing the point - I am not saying that Advani should be the leader before the elections, I am saying that post poll a consensus can be built around his name because allies now find him to be more acceptable. You (and other fans of Modi) may think that the entire party is behind him and everyone in the BJP loves him but thats not even close to the situation at the ground level. There are a LOT of influential leaders who are in Advani's favor and are waiting for the right moment to come out in the open and show their support for him. Modi was made CM by Advani. i think thats pretty well known. Those leaders know that if Modi is projected, he's not going to accept anything less than the top job, so its quite hard to believe that they would support Advani because the government wont be formed like that. Plus, can you tell me which BJP leader with a mass base will go for Advani? the D4 are there due to seniority and the fact that they have RSS ka aashirwad.
Sachin=GOD Posted July 4, 2013 Posted July 4, 2013 Modi was made CM by Advani. i think thats pretty well known. Those leaders know that if Modi is projected, he's not going to accept anything less than the top job, so its quite hard to believe that they would support Advani because the government wont be formed like that. Plus, can you tell me which BJP leader with a mass base will go for Advani? the D4 are there due to seniority and the fact that they have RSS ka aashirwad. if he really has that attitude then it shows how naive he is and how little he knows about Indian Politics. The number of leaders who have succeeded on a National Level with such a rigid stance and obstinate behaviour is almost negligible. when the allies come out and say that Modi is not acceptable and Advani is acceptable then thats reason enough for many BJP leader to support Advani over Modi. As I said earlier, right now they won't come out in the open because there's no point - they are experienced and know when to show their support for Advani.
FischerTal Posted July 4, 2013 Posted July 4, 2013 if he really has that attitude then it shows how naive he is and how little he knows about Indian Politics. The number of leaders who have succeeded on a National Level with such a rigid stance and obstinate behaviour is almost negligible. when the allies come out and say that Modi is not acceptable and Advani is acceptable then thats reason enough for many BJP leader to support Advani over Modi. As I said earlier, right now they won't come out in the open because there's no point - they are experienced and know when to show their support for Advani. lol, its naive to not accept that one puts in the hard work and a dadaji goes home with the mithai? as i have already stated, this acceptability theory is the only thing swaraj and jaitley types are clinging on to in the hope of becoming PM. If you have the numbers, parties will come to you like a moth to a flame. As for the leaders, I believe that most of these leaders you talk about have already made the assessment that without Modi, BJP wont even get to its tally in the last LS elections when secular Advani and other BJP leaders (especially Jaitley) were at the helm with not even a whiff of Modi at the national level. I agree with you in your assessment that these BJP leaders are very smart and thats why most of them are coming to terms with the fact that its Modi or no one. Ill give you an example. Look at Manohar Parrikar in Goa. He came to power with a substantial number of Rom-Cats voting for him, and still he was one of the first to support Modi coming at the national stage.
seedhi Posted July 4, 2013 Posted July 4, 2013 I might be wrong but I don't think BJP will be declaring an official PM candidate this time. They'll project Modi as the face in the elections but if they get enough seats will choose someone acceptable to the allies as PM.That will be strange, very strange.
surajmal Posted July 4, 2013 Posted July 4, 2013 Are people actually this naive to think that Modi is unacceptable to his fellow politicians because he is a right wing nutjob? :hysterical: Even his own party hates him because he is pretty much the only major politician in the country that represents an "anti socialism" post. If he gets that PM kursi, it would, for all intent and purposes, bring an end to the gravy train for rest of the leeches. That is why he is unacceptable. Come on people, get your heads out of your asses.
FischerTal Posted July 4, 2013 Posted July 4, 2013 Are people actually this naive to think that Modi is unacceptable to his fellow politicians because he is a right wing nutjob? :hysterical: Even his own party hates him because he is pretty much the only major politician in the country that represents an "anti socialism" post. If he gets that PM kursi, it would, for all intent and purposes, bring an end to the gravy train for rest of the leeches. That is why he is unacceptable. Come on people, get your heads out of your asses. Well Modi is not completely anti-socialist. Many of the schemes he launched in Gujarat like Garib Kalyan Mela were based on state government giving resources straight to the poor by cutting out middlemen, but yes for major policies, he is ideologically a capitalist
The Outsider Posted July 4, 2013 Posted July 4, 2013 That will be strange' date=' very strange.[/quote'] The BJP cadre and leaders are as desperate to come to power as any of the potential allies. Being out of power is a huge loss of earning for them.
Sachin=GOD Posted July 4, 2013 Posted July 4, 2013 On the topic of Advani & Modi: आज फिर आडवाणी बनने की तमन्ना है लाल कृष्ण आडवाणी कई कारणों से आजकल फिर खबरों में हैं। मोदी से उनकी अदावत के किस्से अभी खत्म भी नहीं हुए थे कि जम्मू-कश्मीर के मुख्यमंत्री उमर अब्दुल्ला से झड़प की खबर आ गई। झगड़े का कारण बना धारा 370 को हटाने का आडवाणी का नया शिगूफा। आडवाणी को जानने वाले चौंके। दो कारणों से। एक, अचानक धारा 370 का जिक्र क्यों? कहीं बीजेपी कश्मीर के बहाने किसी नई रणनीति पर तो नहीं काम कर रही? दो, आडवाणी के बारे में मशहूर है कि वो कभी कोई चीज बिना कारण नहीं करते। कहीं ऐसा तो नहीं कि बीजेपी से इतर आडवाणी कोई नया बखेड़ा खड़ा करने की कोशिश में हैं? मुझे नहीं लगता कि बीजेपी इस वक्त धारा 370 का जिक्र कर नया बवाल मोल लेना चाहेगी। ये अकेले आडवाणी के दिमाग की उपज है। 1998 के बाद पहली बार आडवाणी के मुंह से धारा 370 का जिक्र सुनायी पड़ा। उस वक्त केंद्र में सरकार बनाने के लिये बीजेपी ने अपने तीन मुद्दों को किनारे रख दिया था। एक, अयोध्या में मंदिर निर्माण का मुद्दा। दो, कॉमन सिविल कोड। तीन, संविधान से धारा 370 के तहत कश्मीर को मिला विशेष दर्जा हटाने का मसला। तब सहयोगियों को साथ लेकर चलने के लिये 'नेशनल-एजेंडा-फार-गवर्नेंस' बना था। और सरकार बनाने के लिये ये तीनों विवादास्पद मुद्दे इस एजेंडे का हिस्सा नहीं थे। 2004 में सरकार से हटने के बाद भी बीजेपी ने इन तीनों मुद्दों को ज्यादा प्रमुखता नहीं दी। कश्मीर इस वक्त अपेक्षाकृत शांत है। इक्का दुक्का घटनाओं को छोड़ दें तो आतंकवाद कमजोर पड़ता दिख रहा है। एक बार फिर सैलानियों का हुजूम कश्मीर में दिखने लगा है। उमर अब्दुल्ला की सरकार मजे में चल रही है। पाकिस्तान से संबंध भी बेहतर लग रहे हैं। ऐसे में अकारण कश्मीर पर आडवाणी का बयान? आडवाणी के हर कदम के पीछे गहरे मायने होते हैं। एक सोच, एक रणनीति। याद करिये 2009 के समय काले धन पर दिया गया आडवाणी का बयान। तब उस पर किसी ने ध्यान नहीं दिया। और बाद में यही काला धन मनमोहन सिंह की सरकार के लिये जी का जंजाल बन गया। बाबा रामदेव हों या फिर अरविंद केजरीवाल सभी ने इस मुद्दे को भुनाने की कोशिश की। सरकार को जवाब देते नहीं बना। 2009 में वो बीजेपी के सबसे बड़े नेता थे। चुनाव में प्रधानमंत्री पद के उम्मीदवार थे। केंद्र सरकार को घेरना उनका मकसद था। अब उनके निशाने पर कौन हैं? आज हालात बदले हुए हैं। आडवाणी बीजेपी में ही किनारे पर पड़े हैं। नरेंद्र मोदी का डंका चारों तरफ बज रहा है। पार्टी में उनकी राय ज्यादा अहम नहीं रह गयी है। मोदी के मसले पर इस्तीफा देने के बाद भी उनको मनमाफिक समर्थन नहीं मिला। आज आडवाणी की सबसे बड़ी कोशिश है एक बार फिर बीजेपी में अपनी पुरानी हैसियत पाना ताकि वो लोकसभा चुनाव तक केंद्रीय राजनीति में महत्वपूर्ण बने रहें। और इसके लिये जरूरत है एक ऐसे मुद्दे की जो उनको सुर्खियों में तो रखे ही साथ ही बीजेपी के कैडर को भी संदेश दे कि आडवाणी आज भी पार्टी की विचारधारा से विमुख नहीं हुए हैं। बीजेपी के विस्तार और गठबंधन के दौर में केंद्र में सरकार बनाने के लिये सहयोगियों की तलाश के लिये वो पार्टी की रणनीति में कुछ लचीलापन चाहते हैं। इसका मतलब ये कतई नहीं कि वो आरएसएस या फिर हिंदुत्व के एजेंडे से भटक गये हैं या फिर मूल विचारधारा से किसी तरह के बुनियादी समझौते के पक्ष में हैं। आडवाणी बीजेपी में पिछले दिनों इसलिए कमजोर नहीं पड़े कि मोदी उनसे ज्यादा लोकप्रिय नेता हैं। बल्कि इसलिए कि आडवाणी पाकिस्तान में जिन्ना प्रकरण के बाद से मूल विचारधारा से दूर हटते दिखे। जो आडवाणी कभी आरएसएस के हिंदुत्व के सबसे बड़े प्रतीक पुरुष थे, अयोध्या आंदोलन के सबसे बड़े नायक थे वो अचानक सेक्युलर बातें करने लगे। मुस्लिम तुष्टीकरण के धुर विरोधी आडवाणी मुस्लिम समुदाय के साथ बीजेपी की दूरी को पाटने की वकालत करने लगे। उधर गुजरात दंगों के बाद मोदी हिंदुत्व के सबसे बड़े पैरोकार बन के उभरे। जो मुस्लिम तबके से किसी भी तरह के समझौते को तैयार नहीं। आडवाणी धीरे-धीरे पिछड़ते गये और मोदी आगे बढ़ते गये। हालात ये हो गये कि आज मोदी में बीजेपी अपना भविष्य देख रही है और उसके कैडर को लग रहा है कि मोदी हिंदुत्व को नयी ऊंचाई पर ले जा सकते हैं। लेकिन इधर केंद्रीय राजनीति की मजबूरी ने मोदी के माथे पर बल डाल दिया है। इमेज की चिंता सताने लगी है। जिस मोदी ने सद्भावना मिशन के दौरान मुस्लिम टोपी पहनने से इंकार कर दिय़ा था वही मोदी अब अहमदाबाद में मुस्लिम नेताओं का सम्मेलन कर रहे हैं और विश्व हिंदू परिषद के अयोध्या कार्यक्रम में जाने से बचते हैं। मोदी अब खुलकर हिंदुत्व की बात नहीं करते। अयोध्या में राम मंदिर निर्माण पर बयान नहीं देते। कॉमन सिविल कोड पर भी नहीं बोलते। धारा 370 को खत्म करने पर उनकी राय क्या है, नहीं पता। अब वो सिर्फ विकास की बात करते हैं। ग्रोथ रेट, जीडीपी, इन्वेस्टमेंट, गवर्नेंस, सोशल मीडिया, युवा और स्त्री सशक्तीकरण पर ही भाषण देते हैं। कहीं ऐसा तो नहीं आडवाणी को ये बात समझ में आ गयी है। और कश्मीर पर उनका बयान इस ओर इशारा है। मैं ये नहीं मान सकता कि आडवाणी हकीकत से वाकिफ नहीं है और हवा का रुख नहीं जानते। आडवाणी ने हवा का रुख तब पढ़ा था जब किसी को अंदाजा भी नहीं था। नब्बे के दशक में वाजपेयी हाशिये पर थे और आडवाणी सबसे बड़े नेता। तब आडवाणी ने आगे बढ़कर ऐलान किया कि वाजपेयी प्रधानमंत्री पद के उम्मीदवार होंगे। आडवाणी को पता था कि गठबंधन राजनीति में उनके नाम पर सहमति नहीं बनेगी। वाजपेयी ही गठबंधन के नेता हो सकते हैं। आज भी गठबंधन का समय है। आज मोदी उस वक्त के आडवाणी की तरह सबसे लोकप्रिय नेता और आडवाणी वाजपेयी की तरह हाशिये पर। पर आज आडवाणी के नाम पर सहमति आसानी से बन जायेगी। मोदी के नाम पर नहीं। नीतीश कुमार की तरह कइयों को आडवाणी से दिक्कत नहीं है लेकिन मोदी से है। आडवाणी की परेशानी ये है कि बीजेपी में ही उनका नाम लेने वाला कोई नहीं है। ऐसे में कश्मीर पर उनका बयान बीजेपी के अंदर अपने को फिर से स्थापित करने और वैचारिक रूप से खुद को नये सिरे से प्रासंगिक बनाने की कोशिश का प्रयास लगता है। पर क्या बीजेपी में आज कोई नब्बे के दशक का आडवाणी है और क्या ये आडवाणी उनको वाजपेयी का विकल्प मानने को तैयार होगा? http://khabar.ibnlive.in.com/blogs/16/899.html
seedhi Posted July 4, 2013 Posted July 4, 2013 The BJP cadre and leaders are as desperate to come to power as any of the potential allies. Being out of power is a huge loss of earning for them.Even assuming this, how will naming no one as PM candidate help? The BJP is not going to get any substantial allies whether Modi is the PM candidate or not.
The Outsider Posted July 4, 2013 Posted July 4, 2013 Even assuming this, how will naming no one as PM candidate help? Because they won't have to do a volte-face if they get substantial numbers to lure allies adamant on not having Modi as the PM candidate. BJP have always declared a PM candidate '96 onward, so it's possible they might still declare one this time, but there is a realistic chance that they won't. The BJP is not going to get any substantial allies whether Modi is the PM candidate or not. That's not true at all. JD-U, BJD, TDP, TC, JMM all are viable parties to get support from if Modi is not going to become the PM.
seedhi Posted July 4, 2013 Posted July 4, 2013 Because they won't have to do a volte-face if they get substantial numbers to lure allies adamant on not having Modi as the PM candidate. BJP have always declared a PM candidate '96 onward' date= so it's possible they might still declare one this time, but there is a realistic chance that they won't.That is the whole issue. Without Modi at the helm, they cannot get substantial numbers - heck there may even be a grassroots revolt in the party. The cadre is solidly behind him.
asterix Posted July 4, 2013 Posted July 4, 2013 Sala Modi had to come now only... The whole country is begging to get rid of UPA rule and here come the man in hurry... He could win some more sets for BJP but I'm pretty sure NDA won't be able to make govt. I'm pretty sure about it and am eagerly waiting for BJP to again sit in the opposition... So what will happen then? Modi will lose lots of credibility for not helping NDA to make the Govt. when everything was against UPA...public will come to know the hype about Modi and there will be fissures in BJP and tea party group NDA... Modi goes back to Gujjuland awaiting further repercussions from centre... The next 5 years out of power for BJP will end it's adventure in Indian politics.... Already lost so many states now, will reduce to ruling in 1 or 2 states...
FischerTal Posted July 4, 2013 Posted July 4, 2013 Sala Modi had to come now only... The whole country is begging to get rid of UPA rule and here come the man in hurry... He could win some more sets for BJP but I'm pretty sure NDA won't be able to make govt. I'm pretty sure about it and am eagerly waiting for BJP to again sit in the opposition... So what will happen then? Modi will lose lots of credibility for not helping NDA to make the Govt. when everything was against UPA...public will come to know the hype about Modi and there will be fissures in BJP and tea party group NDA... Modi goes back to Gujjuland awaiting further repercussions from centre... The next 5 years out of power for BJP will end it's adventure in Indian politics.... Already lost so many states now, will reduce to ruling in 1 or 2 states... :wizard:
The Outsider Posted July 4, 2013 Posted July 4, 2013 That is the whole issue. Without Modi at the helm, they cannot get substantial numbers And an equally important issue is that even with Modi at the helm if BJP is able to substantially able to increase their strength to the 160-180 mark, they will never be able to form a government if Modi is at the helm. Even if Congress numbers dwindle to 120 and BJP gets 180 seats, the numbers don't add up for Modi. - heck there may even be a grassroots revolt in the party. The cadre is solidly behind him. You are making a big assumption about the party cadre being behind him. Party cadres of all parties are behind people who will get them into positions from which they can exert influence and earn rishwat and ghoos. Today, the party cadre might get the delusional feeling that Modi can get BJP across 230 seats but tomorrow if the BJP is stuck at 170 and needs allies to form the government, the party cadre will show a huge finger to Modi.
seedhi Posted July 4, 2013 Posted July 4, 2013 And an equally important issue is that even with Modi at the helm if BJP is able to substantially able to increase their strength to the 160-180 mark, they will never be able to form a government if Modi is at the helm. Even if Congress numbers dwindle to 120 and BJP gets 180 seats, the numbers don't add up for Modi. You are making a big assumption about the party cadre being behind him. Party cadres of all parties are behind people who will get them into positions from which they can exert influence and earn rishwat and ghoos. Today, the party cadre might get the delusional feeling that Modi can get BJP across 230 seats but tomorrow if the BJP is stuck at 170 and needs allies to form the government, the party cadre will show a huge finger to Modi.Not necessarily. Consider the case of Bihar where the BJP party cadre were completely behind the decision to project Modi, even if it has cost the BJP a share of power in the Bihar government. In any case, this is a long way off. Currently, the best bet for the BJP is to project Modi as PM candidate to even create the possibility of being in a position to influence the formation of a govt.
The Outsider Posted July 4, 2013 Posted July 4, 2013 Not necessarily. Consider the case of Bihar where the BJP party cadre were completely behind the decision to project Modi' date= even if it has cost the BJP a share of power in the Bihar government. In any case, this is a long way off. Currently, the best bet for the BJP is to project Modi as PM candidate to even create the possibility of being in a position to influence the formation of a govt. Huh? How can you compare the two scenarios? It was JD-U that dissociated with BJP and the BJP cadre had no strength or say in it, because JD-U already had close to a majority. Moreover, the decision to elevate Modi was a national level decision which triggered the entire thing and the Bihar BJP cadre had no or little say in it. We are talking about a scenario where letting go of Modi means 5 years of jeb bharaai for the cadre and leaders - they'll happily oblige. As you said it's a long way off, but from my reading that seems to be the most likely outcome of the next elections - BJP at 170, Congress at 150 both desperate for allies to form a government.
bulbul Posted July 5, 2013 Author Posted July 5, 2013 If,a BIG if, BJP gets 180+ seats allies come running even with Modi at helm.All these Pshecular BS is till election once result announced this doesnt matter.
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