G_B_ Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 ^ its a short term strategy to forget TN. Long term BJP needs to make inroads into every state. At present baring kartanaka they remain a cow belt and western Indian party. East North East and South remain black spots for the party. What the BJP maybe rather than seats need to aim for is getting about 5% of the vote and building their vote share. they need to get to a point whereby they are polling 10% of the vote where they can become kingmakers of sorts. Its the same in states like West Bengal and Orissa and the north east. Aim to build vote share at the moment. For all we know Stalin might have a split with his older brother for the DMK and one of the brothers might end up in the BJP camp. You never know. Its an outside shot for the long term but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I also notice that in 2009 INC won 8 seats in Tamil Nadu. How many do people expect them to win? They have broken the alliance with the DMK. I think of 14 seats congress won in WB and TN in 2009 they IMO (which could be wrong) will be lucky to get 5 seats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asterix Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I also notice that in 2009 INC won 8 seats in Tamil Nadu. How many do people expect them to win? They have broken the alliance with the DMK. I think of 14 seats congress won in WB and TN in 2009 they IMO (which could be wrong) will be lucky to get 5 seats. We are seeing the last of Chidu as an elected MP... Unless he comes in through RS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 its that bad for the congress in TN? surely chidu will get elected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
someone Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 ^ its a short term strategy to forget TN. Long term BJP needs to make inroads into every state. At present baring kartanaka they remain a cow belt and western Indian party. East North East and South remain black spots for the party. BJP does have some core supporters in every state so they will have vote share everywhere. But to get proper results like winning seats, they need local representation. That's been lacking, some local and well-known faces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asterix Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 its that bad for the congress in TN? surely chidu will get elected? No.. He can't.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 so in west bengal, will Pranab da's son get elected atleast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 BJP does have some core supporters in every state so they will have vote share everywhere. But to get proper results like winning seats' date=' they need local representation. That's been lacking, some local and well-known faces.[/quote'] While i dont expect it to be a game changer. I think Subramanium Swamy merged his party with the BJP. I think that should make the BJP make a good fist of reaching the 5% mark. Agree 100% on strong local faces. BJP has none in Andhra and TN. In Andhra Pradesh (or the coastal parts anyways) there is a good chance that the BJP might emerge as a king maker in an alliance with a multi party contest. Already there is congress, TDP, Jagan congress. With these splits the BJP should capitalise and aim to build vote share. Even a 5-6% core vote share might be enough to get them into even government formation one day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
someone Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 While i dont expect it to be a game changer. I think Subramanium Swamy merged his party with the BJP. I think that should make the BJP make a good fist of reaching the 5% mark. Agree 100% on strong local faces. BJP has none in Andhra and TN. In Andhra Pradesh (or the coastal parts anyways) there is a good chance that the BJP might emerge as a king maker in an alliance with a multi party contest. Yes. BJP situation has definitely improved in south particular with Modi's name. Now the question is will the increase in votes translate in winning seats? Kerela is particular interestingly, a lot is happening behind the scenes. As there are churches and regional parties saying good things about BJP and Modi and offering their support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yes. BJP situation has definitely improved in south particular with Modi's name. Now the question is will the increase in votes translate in winning seats? Kerela is particular interestingly, a lot is happening behind the scenes. As there are churches and regional parties saying good things about BJP and Modi and offering their support. I doubt the BJP will win many seats in TN AP and Kerela. At max probably 3-4. Its all about building vote share from a low base in these places at the moment for the BJP. The congress is gong to get hit hard in all three states. I think in total they have some 45-50 seats. I expect that to come down to about 20-25. Regional parties will take those seats. The best case scenario for the BJP is that there is a pro Telegu Dessam wave in Andra Pradesh and the party ends up picking 3-4 seats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeautifulGame Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 ^ its a short term strategy to forget TN. Long term BJP needs to make inroads into every state. At present baring kartanaka they remain a cow belt and western Indian party. East North East and South remain black spots for the party. What the BJP maybe rather than seats need to aim for is getting about 5% of the vote and building their vote share. they need to get to a point whereby they are polling 10% of the vote where they can become kingmakers of sorts. Its the same in states like West Bengal and Orissa and the north east. Aim to build vote share at the moment. For all we know Stalin might have a split with his older brother for the DMK and one of the brothers might end up in the BJP camp. You never know. Its an outside shot for the long term but not impossible. Doubt BJP will ever get a footing in TN. Hindutva agenda usually don't get votes in south and they can't push development agenda here like in UP or Bihar. Their best option would have been corruption as both DMK & ADMK are corrupt to the core but doubt anyone would buy it now after the yediyurappa episode in Karnataka. And National parties like BJP and congress will always struggle in TN because when it comes to core issues like Tamilnadu Fishermen , Cauvery , Mullai periyar dam or sirlankan Tamils they cant take very pro- tamilnadu stand as this will be against other states/ friendly countries (srilanka) and this will be fully exploited by regional parties in TN . And not sure what gave the impression Stalin might split DMK as he has already consolidated 100% his position as next leader of party . Even dissolved the Madurai section of the party the only place where Alagiri actually has some supporter base and appointed his loyalists there last month . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeautifulGame Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I also notice that in 2009 INC won 8 seats in Tamil Nadu. How many do people expect them to win? They have broken the alliance with the DMK. I think of 14 seats congress won in WB and TN in 2009 they IMO (which could be wrong) will be lucky to get 5 seats. If they get in alliance with DMK ( which seems very unlikely as of now) they might win 3-4 seats. If not then won't win any seats . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeautifulGame Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 We are seeing the last of Chidu as an elected MP... Unless he comes in through RS... There are rumors that he will contest from Pondy where congress is strong . So u never know I hope he stands in Karaikudi again won't even get deposit this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Doubt BJP will ever get a footing in TN. Hindutva agenda usually don't get votes in south and they can't push development agenda here like in UP or Bihar. Their best option would have been corruption as both DMK & ADMK are corrupt to the core but doubt anyone would buy it now after the yediyurappa episode in Karnataka. And National parties like BJP and congress will always struggle in TN because when it comes to core issues like Tamilnadu Fishermen , Cauvery , Mullai periyar dam or sirlankan Tamils they cant take very pro- tamilnadu stand as this will be against other states/ friendly countries (srilanka) and this will be fully exploited by regional parties in TN . And not sure what gave the impression Stalin might split DMK as he has already consolidated 100% his position as next leader of party . Even dissolved the Madurai section of the party the only place where Alagiri actually has some supporter base and appointed his loyalists there last month . never say never if you look at things the BJP came out of nothing in 1984. From the remnants of the Janata party. They have to keep on trying. Then its an issue of using areas of TN attached to Bangalore metropolitan area and targeting them first. There has been a lot of non tamil immigrants who have made these areas home as a result of their proximity to TN. I am not saying its easy, but the need to try long term. You cant simply write off a state with 40 odd seats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 TN BJP confident of tie-up with Vijayakant’s DMDK Read more at: http://www.firstpost.com/politics/ls-polls-tn-bjp-confident-of-tie-up-with-vijayakants-dmdk-1351393.html?utm_source=ref_article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 CNN-IBN News @ibnlive RT @IBNLiveRealtime Andhra poll tracker: YSR Congress to get 11-19 seats, TDP 9-15, Congress 5-9, TRS 4-8 If this does happen then it will be a HUGE blow to Cong as they had over 30 MPs from Andhra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 ^ 33 i think Congress are even *****ing a brick in Kerela if reports are too believed. they are probably going to be wiped out in the state elections which happen in 2009 with the general elections as well. Same is the case in Haryana. So thats a loss in two state governments in addition to centre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLICKR392 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Congress has absolute no chance in Kerala after the Solar case involving the CM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 ^ 33 i think Congress are even *****ing a brick in Kerela if reports are too believed. they are probably going to be wiped out in the state elections which happen in 2009 with the general elections as well. Same is the case in Haryana. So thats a loss in two state governments in addition to centre. yeah, its 33. But if they need it then in all probability there will be an option for a post poll alliance with Jagan or TRS (same would be open to BJP also). In Kerela they will lose around 4-5 seats - thats what it looks like right now. They are definitely losing Haryana and Delhi and a loss of at least 15 seats in Rajasthan and a few in Maharashtraand of course, at the very least, a loss of around 12-15 (if not more) in UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeautifulGame Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Just seen this BJP's state unit president Pon Radhakrishnan On the issue of arrest of and attacks on Indian fishermen by Sri Lankan navy, he said that till the time Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse was in office, there "won't be any justice," to Tamil Nadu fishermen Subramanian Swamy @Swamy39 Jan 15 Sri Lanka announces release of 263 more Indian fishermen from SL jail. Thank You Pres Rajapaksha Every party in TN will run scared of BJP because of Swamy alone :cantstop: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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