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2014 Lok Sabha Elections thread |Exit poll results


ganeshran

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Congress is a goner for sure. It's just a matter of damage control for them at this point, which they are not doing very well either. It's obvious that they have only two vote garnering personalities - Sonia and Priyanka. Due to ill health or to give Rahul space, Sonia has gone in the background and for some reason Priyanka is restricting herself to Amethi and Rae Bareily. Even they will not be able to get them over the 150 mark, but can prevent them from going below 100 which is a very real possibility.

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I might have mentioned UP in particular here and there mostly because the rest of the country is forced to depend on it for a stable govt and its a real shame considering the absolute laggard it is compared to so many other states.
You've got the causality wrong. It's because the rest of the country has to depend on UP's 80 seats that it is a laggard. All political parties see that number of 80, used to be 85 and try to win as much through emotive issues, rather than doing anything substantial for the state. BJP is no exception, right from Ayodhya to Muzaffarnagar.
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Beleive me dude, even if they would have provided 24 ghante bijli and sadak, you would have still been giving Maa Bahen ki gaaliyan to them. But there is something with BJP led government in few of the states like Goa, MP, Chattisgarh, Gujarat etc. have done which are appreciable. Of course exceptions are everywhere like Karnataka and previous governments of Rajasthan and UP. But overall they have been much better than others.
No my grouse is not with the BJP in general. They are the same as other parties in general, it's with their association with right wing loonies and the high profile presence of such loonies in the party like Modi, Kalyan Singh, and Rajnath Singh. They were the best of a bad bunch when Vajpayee was at the helm. They are the worst of a bad bunch now with Rajnath and Modi at the helm. I have praised the work done by Shivraj Chouhan and Raman Singh on many occasions, but similar work has been done by Nitish Kumar and Naveen Patnaik as well. Has little to with the party, but the individual in charge.
Kalyan Singh and his team were elected by the people of UP on communal issues. Mulayam and Mayawati have been elected due to caste based politics. The day non jahils of UP start voting for development and good governance(of course Mayawati provided that to some extent) Kalyan singh and Mulayam Singh's baap will also have to provide the law and order, bijli and sadak, things which are least expected from a government. Problem is not only the politicians, problem is also the mentallity of people where Mr. Jha votes for some party just on the basis that the candidate is a Brahmin.
So, who are the good governance options that the people of UP should vote for, if we exclude AAP?
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Is priyanka really that much of a vote gathering personality? Not saying she is not. But untested surely. I think before Rahul became active in campaigns people were speaking about him in the same way. Which brings us to an interesting point about the long term future of the congress. Rahul has no heir. Atleast none we know of. Priyanka has two. I wonder if the dynamics between brother and sister is Rahul Gandhi----> Priyanka's kids. You look at the BJP and if Modi fails there is Chauhan waiting in the wings. Plenty of sartaps.

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^ Yeah, untested and it might not work either. But at least she is a fresh face who could break the association of voters with the past 5 years of disastrous governance that one comes to associate with whenever you see the face of a Congress leader. Her ability to connect with the masses has always been greater than Rahul's and now Rahul is closely associated with the poor governance over the past 5 years, no matter how much he tries to play the rebel. There is also this perception of associating her with Indira Gandhi, which can work in her favor. I am surprised Congress is not taking a punt on this given that the writing of defeat is on the wall.

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^ Yeah, untested and it might not work either. But at least she is a fresh face who could break the association of voters with the past 5 years of disastrous governance that one comes to associate with whenever you see the face of a Congress leader. Her ability to connect with the masses has always been greater than Rahul's and now Rahul is closely associated with the poor governance over the past 5 years, no matter how much he tries to play the rebel. There is also this perception of associating her with Indira Gandhi, which can work in her favor. I am surprised Congress is not taking a punt on this given that the writing of defeat is on the wall.
hmm maybe Priyanka gandhi might not want to make an attempt at such a late stage? We are assuming she will do what Sonia wants. Maybe she wants Rahul to fail and then rebuild when she has proper time. Its a risk not worth taking for her personally.
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So, who are the good governance options that the people of UP should vote for, if we exclude AAP?
None for Assembly but SP should be finished in similar way as RJD has been in Bihar. AAP can be tested but they will have to comeup with some really good leaders or else I will vote for Mayawati atleast Law and Order situation was much better during her tenure. Both BJP and Congress need leadership changed from the likes of Pramod Tiwari and Laljee Tandon. It would be interesting if BJP gives Varun Gandhi the leadership of the state.
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My assumption is AAP will be more harmful for Congress then BJP. They had recently shifted their ideology towards left and the voters of that thinking never will vote for BJP.
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My assumption is AAP will be more harmful for Congress then BJP. They had recently shifted their ideology towards left and the voters of that thinking never will vote for BJP.
many people are saying the same thing AAP to gobble up Cong votes in Delhi, Mumbai: ABP-Nielsen survey
From its tally of 17 in the 2009 elections, the Congress’ tally is predicted to come down to 3 in these constituencies, while the AAP is likely to win 8 seats. The BJP’s tally is predicted to go up significantly from 2 in 2009 to 10 seats this time. Narendra Modi scores over Kejriwal as the most preferred PM candidate, with overall votes of 48%. Congress scion Rahul Gandhi stands third in the race with an overall 16% votes. According to the snap poll, in Mumbai and Thane, the Congress-NCP combine will get 3 seats in 2014 general elections, down from 8 seats in 2009. BJP-Shiv Sena alliance is predicted to get 6 as compared to the single seat in 2009, while AAP likely to bag only one seat.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/specials/coverage/myindia-myvote/chunk-ht-ui-myindiamyvote-countdownto2014/aap-to-gobble-up-cong-votes-in-delhi-mumbai-abp-nielsen-survey/sp-article10-1172608.aspx
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I think this survey is over estimating the reach of AAP in mumbai especially. The fact is AAP has no strong marathi leaders to wrest control from the sena especially in its strongholds. The alliance with RPI is going to tip things in favour of the sena against the congress and the mns. If Hazare comes out in favour of Modi , coupled with the death of Vilasrao Deshmukh then Gopinath munde is probably going to sweep marathwada. So the BJP needs to get team Anna onside for rural maharashtra.

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so rahul is most likely to be announced congress's PM candidate by 17th this month :hmmm: AAP is going to provide the list of candidates who will fight the LS election by 20 jan.. meanwhile EC says its gonna be a 5 phase GE just like the last time in 2009,gonna announce dates in feb

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^ Yeah, untested and it might not work either. But at least she is a fresh face who could break the association of voters with the past 5 years of disastrous governance that one comes to associate with whenever you see the face of a Congress leader. Her ability to connect with the masses has always been greater than Rahul's and now Rahul is closely associated with the poor governance over the past 5 years, no matter how much he tries to play the rebel. There is also this perception of associating her with Indira Gandhi, which can work in her favor. I am surprised Congress is not taking a punt on this given that the writing of defeat is on the wall.
I saw a video of her campaigning in Amethi and surrounding areas and it was the worst election rally/speech ever. She was insulting to aam janta and was scolding them for not trusting Gandhi and voting for others, which in her daant was the primary cause of durdasha of those poor people. If I am not mistaken, her campaigning in the previous elections have had similar affect as her bhai ie either negative or 0.
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@desicartman while i have not seen her campaign (Priyanka Gandhi) I have seen Rahul Gandhi (on TV) on one of his speeches in UP. He too was scolding the people there for being poor and not voting the congress. Maybe it was a ploy. A poor ploy.

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If BJP asks me, I can think of becoming party's PM candidate, Manohar Parrikar says
PANAJI: Goa chief minister Manohar Parrikar said on Wednesday that AAP had no business proposing his name as BJP's prime ministerial nominee, but he can consider the prospect if his party asked him. :haha: "Who is Aam Admi Party to decide whether I should be the prime ministerial candidate? It is for my party to decide. I can think if party asks me to," he said. :hysterical: He was responding to a question about the statement of an AAP leader that BJP should nominate Parrikar and not Narendra Modi for the top job. On Monday, AAP national executive member Dinesh Vaghela told reporters in Panaji, "If BJP wants to correct its mistake (of projecting Modi) then it should project Parrikar in place of Modi as its prime ministerial candidate." He said Modi during his rally in Goa had praised Parrikar for his simplicity and performance. Reacting to the assurances doled out by Modi during the rally, Vaghela said the BJP leader was making fake promises of prosperity. The BJP and Congress are two sides of the same coin and both the parties don't want corruption to be weeded out, he said. There are several BJP leaders who are indicted for corruption but still continue to lead the party, Vaghela pointed out.
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