G_B_ Posted January 23, 2014 Posted January 23, 2014 what these surveys are telling right now is the best case scenario for BJP and the worst case scenario for Cong.... I doubt if its a worst or best case. they simply have reported what the people in their survey have told them. If anything probably BJP will gain further as congress are dithering from appointing Ra Ga. Plus the AAP agitation in Delhi. Modi is already on a huge rally trail all around the country. As election time approaches we are going to see a high pitch Modi speeches 24/7
cowboysfan Posted January 23, 2014 Posted January 23, 2014 Even dumbo rahul can read the tea leaves,he did the right thing in sitting this one out.
ganeshran Posted January 23, 2014 Author Posted January 23, 2014 We need a meta poll which aggregates the multiple surveys and gives them weightages as per past accuracy. something like the 538 blog in the US elections.
Sachin=GOD Posted January 23, 2014 Posted January 23, 2014 We need a meta poll which aggregates the multiple surveys and gives them weightages as per past accuracy. something like the 538 blog in the US elections. most of the polls would be out of contention if past accuracy is used.... Outlook gave NDA 320 seats in 2004 - they got half that
G_B_ Posted January 23, 2014 Posted January 23, 2014 ^ to be fair opinion polls were rudimentary in India at that time. slowly but surely they are getting more accurate. Its not fair use the example of a decade ago. As far as aggregate goes, both CNN-IBN and India today have reached the same verdict on the BJP numbers in early Jan 2014. 190. They obviously differ on different states but the net effect is 190. You cant tell me that both surveys arrive at the same conclusion at the same time. IMO you dont need an opinion poll to tell you that the congress is going to be smashed. The question is who will replace the congress in those seats. BJP or third parties. Take Maharashtra, both CNN_IBN and India Today sort of came out with numbers most in the marathi media and even me were expecting. Sena-BJP more than 25 seats and NCP-Congress less than 20. So if you take a big state Maharashtra as an example its along expected lines.
Cevno Posted January 23, 2014 Posted January 23, 2014 AAP getting decent number of seats will be huge for Indian democracy. Will force others to up their standards and then they will raise questions which no one raises in the cosy club of the establishment. If AAP fails then quite possible that established parties get more arrogant and unresponsive.
cowboysfan Posted January 23, 2014 Posted January 23, 2014 I have only been to agra but i have always wondered how 200 million are crammed into a place which is little bigger than karnataka but has more than 3 times the population.
ganeshran Posted January 23, 2014 Author Posted January 23, 2014 ^ to be fair opinion polls were rudimentary in India at that time. slowly but surely they are getting more accurate. Its not fair use the example of a decade ago. It was more probably a case of cooking the numbers for Pramod Mahajan in an already flawed poll.
yoda Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 So does it look like NDA will get a majority or not?
someone Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 AAP getting decent number of seats will be huge for Indian democracy. Will force others to up their standards and then they will raise questions which no one raises in the cosy club of the establishment. If AAP fails then quite possible that established parties get more arrogant and unresponsive. Seems like the other way around, the newly developed party AAP has already become arrogant and unresponsive. Taking laws into its own hands and defending wrong actions.
randomGuy Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 Seems like the other way around, the newly developed party AAP has already become arrogant and unresponsive. Taking laws into its own hands and defending wrong actions. your pm candidate uses state machinery meant for counter-terrorism etc to spy on a woman for personal reasons. What abt that?
someone Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 your pm candidate uses state machinery meant for counter-terrorism etc to spy on a woman for personal reasons. What abt that? You take allegations as facts. And next, if you haven't checked on the latest update on it, that so called incident has backfired instead.
randomGuy Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 You take allegations as facts. And next, if you haven't checked on the latest update on it, that so called incident has backfired instead. your post also has an allegation and hence deserves that response.
Sachin=GOD Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 your pm candidate uses state machinery meant for counter-terrorism etc to spy on a woman for personal reasons. What abt that? so you are taking Modi as a benchmark while talking about taking law into his hands
someone Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 your post also has an allegation and hence deserves that response. Unfortunately that's not true. Your own Delhi government has admitted that but only that he sees nothing wrong in doing such unlawful actions. Thus, this defending their pathetic minister. In that incident, it's the police who have come out stronger and got praised from many critics, not that government.
randomGuy Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 Unfortunately that's not true. Your own Delhi government has admitted that but only that he sees nothing wrong in doing such unlawful actions. Thus, this defending their pathetic minister. In that incident, it's the police who have come out stronger and got praised from many critics, not that government. we believe the allegations are hollow and a lie. Modi your PM candidate has much more serious allegations. He never resigned, did he?
randomGuy Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 so you are taking Modi as a benchmark while talking about taking law into his hands its bjp vs aap and modi vs Kejriwal, no?
Sachin=GOD Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 its bjp vs aap and modi vs Kejriwal' date=' no?[/quote'] only in your mind. In reality, despite Congress being in such bad shape, its still BJP vs Cong Nationally.
randomGuy Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 only in your mind. In reality, despite Congress being in such bad shape, its still BJP vs Cong Nationally. you can say so. But i have my reasons to believe tht Aap would get Arnd 60 seats. And Congress will get arnd abt the same number
someone Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 you can say so. But i have my reasons to believe tht Aap would get Arnd 60 seats. And Congress will get arnd abt the same number Lol, 60 seats is a very delusional dream. Especially after this week's action, you should first just focus on handling Delhi, not national aspirations. And AAP itself is hardly a proper party or group, since many of their members have absurd views and at times totally opposite views with each other about some of national, security policies. This infighting is only going to grow.
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