G_B_ Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 Interesting in Andhra Pradesh as per CNN IBN The Congress is likely to get 24 per cent votes. The YSR Congress Party is expected to get 22 per cent, TDP 21 per cent, TRS 11 per cent, BJP 10 per cent, AAP 2 per cent and others 10 per cent votes respectively. The Congress is doing very well in Telangana region and the YSR Congress Party is doing very well in Seemandhra region. BJP got 4% in 2009. Assume 10% is an over estimate and lets say BJP will actually get about 7% of the vote. Its fair to say that BJP wont get less than 4% of the vote. Usually when they have lower votes in states the Modi factor usually doubling their vote share even if its not enough to win them seats on their own. TDP + BJP can potentially come to about 27%-28% which IMO will give them a real edge in certain seats. The deal between TDP and BJP should be , BJP contests 18 seats in Andhra and TDP contests the rest or 25 seats. For the assembly elections BJP can contest 15% of the seats with TDP the rest. No doubt the congress and TRS will tie up. While the left parties will find a willing ally in YSR Congress. But the BJP should be able to pick up 3-4 seats from the state in this scenario.
Cevno Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 From the analysis i have been told from locals YSR Congress will sweep most of Seemandhra. But then TDP + BJP alliance may have affect.
cндябеяs Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 TDP will not ally with bjp, they will lose seats in andhra and rayalasema may be after polls and bjp may win 1 seat of secunderabad
G_B_ Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 From the analysis i have been told from locals YSR Congress will sweep most of Seemandhra. But then TDP + BJP alliance may have affect. I sort of agree with that analysis. You are probably going to have three fornts TRS+congress in telangana, YRS-Congress seema Andhra and hopefully BJP-TDP. BJP-TDP should do well in Hyderabad metropolitan areas. TDP has no other option than the BJP IMO. If they dont form an alliance with them then they are going to be routed quite badly.
G_B_ Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 TDP will not ally with bjp, they will lose seats in andhra and rayalasema may be after polls and bjp may win 1 seat of secunderabad There is no point IMO if they dont ally. TDP will lose heavily. Both articles i have read are hinting at three major alliances. http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2014-01-01/hyderabad/45762631_1_ysr-congress-telangana-rashtra-samithi-seemandhra-region
Cevno Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 TDP wants to ally with BJP but BJP supports Telangana so there's a problem. Also, if TDP allies with BJP then Muslim vote will all gravitate towards YSR in Seemandhra. But then TDP wants kick by allying with a national front.
Cevno Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 Btw, will be very interesting what BJP does in Haryana.
G_B_ Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 TDP wants to ally with BJP but BJP supports Telangana so there's a problem. Also, if TDP allies with BJP then Muslim vote will all gravitate towards YSR in Seemandhra. But then TDP wants kick by allying with a national front. either way they are ****ed. So might as well ally and there is a good chance that if BJP gets into power centrally they will have 1-2 TDP ministers. SeemaAndra Muslim % is quite low. Its a risk the TDP should be willing to make. I think in seema andra the BJP-TDP should stand at 35% together. Jagan should be at 40% there with the congress and the rest making up the rest. BJP does support Telangana. But with TRS in congress hands i dont see it being a problem at all. BJP votes in urban areas are what TDP want. there are also rumours that Reddy (current cm) might float another seemaandhra party. Most people are expcting it to garner 5-6% from that Congress side of things.
Cevno Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 Chhattisgarh: Auditor raps Raman Singh's govt for paying for coverage http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/auditor-raps-chhattisgarh-for-paying-for-coverage/article1-1176169.aspx Hmm...
cндябеяs Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 There is no point IMO if they dont ally. TDP will lose heavily. Both articles i have read are hinting at three major alliances. http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2014-01-01/hyderabad/45762631_1_ysr-congress-telangana-rashtra-samithi-seemandhra-region there are also assembly elections which are more important for TDP
Sachin=GOD Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 IBNLive Realtime @IBNLiveRealtime CNN-IBN-Lokniti election tracker - NDA is projected to get 211-231. BJP is expected to get 192-210. IBNLive Realtime @IBNLiveRealtime CNN-IBN-Lokniti election tracker - UPA is projected to get 107-127. Congress is expected to get 92-108. IBNLive Realtime @IBNLiveRealtime CNN-IBN-Lokniti election tracker projection-TMC 20-28, Left 15-23, BSP 10-16, AAP 6-12, RJD 6-10, TRS -4-8,JDS - 4-8, SP 8-14, AIADMK 15-23. IBNLive Realtime @IBNLiveRealtime CNN-IBN-Lokniti election tracker - DMK 7-13, YSR Congress 11-19, TDP 9-15, BJD - 10-16.
dial_100 Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 Projections are showing that NDA may exceed 220 in the survey polls. omg USA :hehe: This relation between the two big nations is going to be very interesting this year.
G_B_ Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 IBNLive Realtime @IBNLiveRealtime 4m CNN-IBN-Lokniti election tracker - NDA is projected to get 211-231. BJP is expected to get 192-210. IBNLive Realtime @IBNLiveRealtime 4m CNN-IBN-Lokniti election tracker - UPA is projected to get 107-127. Congress is expected to get 92-108. NDA--- 36% of the Vote ----> BJP 34% UPA ---- 28% of the Vote----> Congress 27% While the BJP prime ministerial candidate has the backing of 34 per cent respondents, only 15 per cent back the Congress leader Rahul Gandhi IBNLive Realtime @IBNLiveRealtime 2m CNN-IBN-Lokniti election tracker projection-TMC 20-28, Left 15-23, BSP 10-16, AAP 6-12, RJD 6-10, TRS -4-8,JDS - 4-8, SP 8-14, AIADMK 15-23. Retweeted by CNN-IBN News
randomGuy Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 Ashutosh was quite correct on CNN IBN when he said tht let AAP declare candidates and let them start election campaign. Vote share will start multiplying then.
G_B_ Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 Projections are showing that NDA may exceed 220 in the survey polls. omg USA :hehe: This relation between the two big nations is going to be very interesting this year. If modi is wise, he will let trade flourish, USA remains a key export market and just like how Modi is attracting the likes of Ford to Guj, he should continue in the same manner. Which is exactly what i expect him to do. USA and Japan are two countries which invest the most in Gujarat. So Modi is above all that and does not have an ego in that regard. Investment is investment.
G_B_ Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 IBNLive Realtime @IBNLiveRealtime 5m CNN-IBN-Lokniti election tracker - DMK 7-13, YSR Congress 11-19, TDP 9-15, BJD - 10-16. Retweeted by CNN-IBN News Expand
G_B_ Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 You really have to admire the BJD, have destroyed BJP and Congress in Orissa. But looking at this, maybe the BJP needs to hold off on forming a coalition in AP. Yes it wont get any seats but at the same time TDP and YSR might be in favour of supporting them. Assuming NDA as per CNN IBN gets 220 seats (average of highest and lowest tallies) YSR+ TDP = 20 seats + AIADMK 20 seats. + smaller parties and independents = 272. I stress its as per this survey.
BeautifulGame Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 Imagine Modi needing Amma and Mamta support to form govt . Will retire from politics within a year :cantstop:
G_B_ Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 Mamata wont support him. Not after nandigram and i would rather have the BJP not forming gov than taking help from Bonner jee He can work with Amma. Probably hitch will be Sri Lankan Tamil issues. But I think that can work for the BJP as well as most SriLankan tamils are hindus.
dial_100 Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 This will influence people lot more to vote for BJP and Modi. Once people realize that there is no third option and people hate Cong to the core, they will support BJP. So as we get closer to the poll, there will be a strong pull from NDA. The numbers will quickly progress towards 250. Yet another big fart of 2013 happened to be JDU. Today, this guy would have been looking at a huge portfolio at the center. "Par bhaiya, humko PM seat chahiye". Biggest loser will be NK in my honest opinion. He was very popular NDA leader and now he gets alienated from big role at the center. Even if he comes back to NDA, it wont be the same respect anymore.
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