G_B_ Posted October 9, 2014 Author Share Posted October 9, 2014 The ncp has been basically wiped out. I dont know if people are over adjusting the bjp in the wake of the lok sabha win. Remains to be seen. The NCP number is really surprising. What this means is that the sena and mns have retained their core areas from 2009 assembly. The ncp have collapsed in western maharashtra the congress have collapsed in viderbha and mumbai. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted October 9, 2014 Author Share Posted October 9, 2014 India today survey coming up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted October 9, 2014 Author Share Posted October 9, 2014 Rahul Kanwal @rahulkanwal 18m18 minutes ago BJP poised to emerge as single largest party in #MahaBattle @IndiaToday Cicero predicts median of 133 seats for BJP. Shiv Sena 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted October 9, 2014 Author Share Posted October 9, 2014 thats two surveys in a row claiming that the Bjp will finish top and the sena second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted October 9, 2014 Author Share Posted October 9, 2014 India today poll.... BJP 30% Sena 19% MNS 5% Congress 14% NCP 14% Others 18% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted October 9, 2014 Author Share Posted October 9, 2014 Seats BJP 133 (125-144) Sena 57 (51-63) Congress 30 (25-35) NCP 33 (28-38) MNS 10 (5-15) Others 25 (includes BJP allies) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tridibans_16 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 BJP is all set to be the single largest party in Maharastra. I don't know about south Mumbai as it is a Shiv Sena stronghold now, in central and northern Mumbai, BJP is set to sweep. Many slum dweleers are RPI/ SSP voters are now in the BJP camp whereas the minority (mostly Kurla/ Bandra) will be split between Congress/ NCP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gaurav92 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Thane will se a four way battle between Sena, MNS, Cong and NCP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted October 9, 2014 Author Share Posted October 9, 2014 BJP is all set to be the single largest party in Maharastra. I don't know about south Mumbai as it is a Shiv Sena stronghold now' date=' in central and northern Mumbai, BJP is set to sweep. Many slum dweleers are RPI/ SSP voters are now in the BJP camp whereas the minority (mostly Kurla/ Bandra) will be split between Congress/ NCP.[/quote'] The RPI was a key party for the bjp and the sena. Probably the difference between the two in mumbai. In terms of Thane the thane city areas should see the sena though. The navi mumbai part too i expect the naik family to just about hang on. The trend emerging is that the sena is set to hold onto their pockets from 2009. But they have failed to make any inroads in places like Western maha and marathwada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gaurav92 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 The RPI was a key party for the bjp and the sena. Probably the difference between the two in mumbai. In terms of Thane the thane city areas should see the sena though. The navi mumbai part too i expect the naik family to just about hang on. The trend emerging is that the sena is set to hold onto their pockets from 2009. But they have failed to make any inroads in places like Western maha and marathwada. That still remains a Congis and NCP stronghold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted October 9, 2014 Author Share Posted October 9, 2014 That still remains a Congis and NCP stronghold. not on the evidence of those surveys..... the congress being reduced to 30 seats means they have been decimated in western maharashtra and marathwada Ditto Western maharashtra and the ncp the bjp have clearly made huge gains there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeautifulGame Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Modi's claim that until he is in Delhi, nobody can divide Maharashtra completely contradicts his own party's stand on the statehood for Vidarbha. BJP is the only major party that has supported statehood for Vidarbha and even included it in their election manifesto. I think they were going to hide under the fact that their erstwhile ally Shiv Sena was opposed to dividing Maharashtra and use that as an excuse not to grant Vidarbha statehood. Now, without the Sena, if they are saying that they do not advocate dividing Maharashtra, then it seems it was just a political ploy to garner votes. Dividing states that have strong regional language influence is extremely difficult in terms of opposition encountered for such decisions. Just look at the case of Telangana. It is much easier to divide states that have mostly Hindi speakers because there in not much of a sense of cultural belonging. Thats more to do with the splitting hyderabad than to do with regional language culture. If Patna was part of Jharkand Bihar politicians would have similar problems.Sae with UP or MP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malcolm Merlyn Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I am waiting for todays chankya polls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
game_changerr Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I am waiting for todays chankya polls. when chankya will give their exit poll result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texan Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Thats more to do with the splitting hyderabad than to do with regional language culture. If Patna was part of Jharkand Bihar politicians would have similar problems.Sae with UP or MP Hyderabad was part of the problem - yes. But in general, states that were formed based on linguistic identity like Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, TN or the erstwhile AP will always be extremely difficult to divide. Congress, which the new AP chiefly blames for the division got completely wiped out in the new AP assembly despite having strong support across all of AP for the last 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texan Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 when chankya will give their exit poll result Exit polls take place after elections. Opinion polls take place before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texan Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Mumbai bookies are predicting 110 - 120 seats for BJP according to Economic Times. SS, Cong, NCP to each get 40 - 50 MNS to get 15 - 20 They got it right in the national elections too. They know what they are talking because there is huge amount of money at stake for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gattaca Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Hyderabad was part of the problem - yes. But in general, states that were formed based on linguistic identity like Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, TN or the erstwhile AP will always be extremely difficult to divide. Congress, which the new AP chiefly blames for the division got completely wiped out in the new AP assembly despite having strong support across all of AP for the last 10 years. Actually Ap was part of tamilnadu before it was merged with telangana. Ap division from tamilnadu didn't had problems. It's more with how people assimilated in telangana case Lot of andhra people settled in telangana were against the division and of course Hyderabad was developed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texan Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Actually Ap was part of tamilnadu before That was before states were re-organized on linguistic grounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gaurav92 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 when chankya will give their exit poll result Actually, we may not see Chanakya polls this time cuz from what I have heard and read, Chanakya collects its samples and does the survey on a continuous basis for years. So the initial sample was taken after considering BJP-SS and Cong-NCP alliance which is now broken, and it may not be possible to go for that sample size again and get the voter preference. I don't expect them to be as god or as accurate as they were in LS polls, if they come out with their opinion polls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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