TheBoyPlunger Posted January 7, 2009 Posted January 7, 2009 One of the few guys who got this economic downtrun spot on! 2I0QN-FYkpw&feature=related
TheBoyPlunger Posted January 7, 2009 Author Posted January 7, 2009 wow this guy is good what does he predict now?? He is predicting a recession that should last longer than most people expect. We should see massive inflation(think over 20%) over the new few years once the bailout and the coming Obama-stimulus steam runs out. He says the Dow-Gold ratio should go to atleast to 2-3 by the time this recession is over(happened in 1932 depression and again in 1974 recession). He believes Gold will hit atleast 2000 over the new few years.
TheBoyPlunger Posted January 7, 2009 Author Posted January 7, 2009 Wow! Does Goose post here these days?
fineleg Posted January 7, 2009 Posted January 7, 2009 goose - where are you? give us some more updates.
The Outsider Posted January 7, 2009 Posted January 7, 2009 Read www.rgemonitor.com .......the main guy at the blog is Nouriel Roubini who was one of the first guys to predict all this. I've been following that blog for quite a long time and goose is a big fan of his 12 steps to a financial meltdown hypothesis. It's slightly technical at times, though.
goose Posted January 7, 2009 Posted January 7, 2009 hello! yeh almost 4 years on since posting that thread on the old board. i just bumped it if you want to take a look. essentially, i recommended selling your houses and investing the proceeds in gold. if you did this in 2005/06 you'd have made rough 300% return now depending on where you are in the world. compare that to 50% falls in most stockmarket indices. real estate is down 20-60% depending on where you look. nobody has escaped. India, Sydney, Spain, UK, US have all been decimated and we're not even near done. Meanwhile gold has at least doubled priced in most currencies. where do we go from here? if you have resisted buying real estate i suggest you hold off further and continue to rent, especially in those parts where the price collapse has only just begun like the UK. rent the best place you can afford. one or even two years rent in this market will be easily recouped via capital depreciation of the house you didn't buy. the world is going through tectonic shifts and you have to look out for yourself because nobody else will. how much wealth are you sat on? what currency is it held in? if it's dollars or pounds should you convert some into a currency you may need in 10yrs time if not now? what is your personal rate of inflation? forget the official statistics. think not about how to make spectacular returns on your investments instead think in terms of maintaining your purchasing power over the next decade. what's your work life/balance? are you flat out earning a salary denominted in a currency losing it's value? if all this sounds too technical or too risky remember the greatest risk right now could be doing nothing at all. what am i doing? i'm waiting for a bounce in the battered British Pound. then i shall convert some of of my pounds into a mix of other currencies, and of course gold. diversification is the key. gold will probably spend most of this year consolidating in a $650 - $950 range before breaking higher. so don't fire all your bullets yet. stay away from stockmarkets and real estate. and remember to enjoy yourself - it outperforms everytime! normally the above recommendations are the preserve of hedge funds. we are all hedge fund managers now.
Ram Posted January 7, 2009 Posted January 7, 2009 the world is going through tectonic shifts and you have to look out for yourself because nobody else will. how much wealth are you sat on? what currency is it held in? if it's dollars or pounds should you convert some into a currency you may need in 10yrs time if not now? what is your personal rate of inflation? forget the official statistics. think not about how to make spectacular returns on your investments instead think in terms of maintaining your purchasing power over the next decade. what's your work life/balance? are you flat out earning a salary denominted in a currency losing it's value? if all this sounds too technical or too risky remember the greatest risk right now could be doing nothing at all. Man, thats just brilliant.
Ram Posted January 7, 2009 Posted January 7, 2009 I have a question; When you do you think the real-estate market will start to recover. For arguments sake, if the the US economy registers net postive growth by the last quarter of this year, is it fair to assume that the real-estate will start recovering 2 quarters later? That is, during mid 2010?
Brainfade Posted January 7, 2009 Posted January 7, 2009 I have a question; When you do you think the real-estate market will start to recover. For arguments sake, if the the US economy registers net postive growth by the last quarter of this year, is it fair to assume that the real-estate will start recovering 2 quarters later? That is, during mid 2010? Knowing nothing about this topic, let me try to add something here. Are you asking about investments in real estate instruments or real estate properties per se? If it is the latter, you really have to consider the situation in the specific location you are planning to buy. There are many parts of the country where real estate property values did not shoot up to ridiculously overpriced levels as they did in CA, FL etc. Those places are now seeing smaller jolts, if any. Check out the URL below; click on "Stats and Trends," enter a zipcode and get home-price trends over the last year/ 5 years etc. http://www.trulia.com/
suraj Posted January 7, 2009 Posted January 7, 2009 so bottomline how do I get rich ? Get rich real Fast?
Guest dada_rocks Posted January 7, 2009 Posted January 7, 2009 Where I live property prices are still appreciating albeit at very slow rate...... Gold stocks or pure gold which one wud be better?
Guest dada_rocks Posted January 7, 2009 Posted January 7, 2009 How stupid that other optimist guy looks now :haha:
goose Posted January 7, 2009 Posted January 7, 2009 i'm no expert on the specifics of US real estate markets since i live in London. stock-market recovery, as you say, does tend to lead house price recovery. i think stocks will make new lows. i understand the US mkt is very dislocated and many parts eg Florida have already halved. others like Manhattan are still overpriced. if you've been waiting to snap up that luxury holiday home and you intend to make good use of it ie not a pure investment play, is it really worth waiting another two years for the very bottom? i have US colleagues that believe there is good value now in some parts of the US. other parts of the world eg UK are an entirely different proposition. Post your real estate questions on www.greenenergyinvestors.com. Lots of expertise there.
goose Posted January 7, 2009 Posted January 7, 2009 Where I live property prices are still appreciating albeit at very slow rate...... Gold stocks or pure gold which one wud be better? pure gold. unless you have expertise and time to assess stock picks. i do not. keep it simple.
Guest dada_rocks Posted January 7, 2009 Posted January 7, 2009 Meanwhile guys I have unknowingly committed a crime.. Sold my company's share in black-out period yesterday .I have reported it to corporate manager let us see what happens now. Hope I am not handcuffed and thrown behind bars.
Guest dada_rocks Posted January 7, 2009 Posted January 7, 2009 pure gold. unless you have expertise and time to assess stock picks. i do not. keep it simple. That sounds nice wife will be happier too:winky:
suraj Posted January 7, 2009 Posted January 7, 2009 Meanwhile guys I have unknowingly committed a crime.. Sold my company's share in black-out period yesterday .I have reported it to corporate manager let us see what happens now. Hope I am not handcuffed and thrown behind bars. abe aisa kyun kiya??? Were you not aware of the blackout period?? this means jail for 3 years :nervous::nervous: Just kidding!- hope you survive
Guest dada_rocks Posted January 7, 2009 Posted January 7, 2009 Nahin yaar main faaltu ka email parhta bhi nahin hun...aur in logon ne koi mail kara tha sala har quarter mein ak mahina aisa hi hota hai
retterimp Posted January 8, 2009 Posted January 8, 2009 gold will probably spend most of this year consolidating in a $650 - $950 range before breaking higher. so don't fire all your bullets yet. why do you say that? with interest rates near zero, and a commodities/metals bear rally developing, and stock market thought to make new lows, and with yields in treasuries super low, don't you think people pile into gold this year itself? it would be interesting to hear your argument since many are waiting for GLD to breakout above 87 and buy it aggressively.....
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