New Zealand, the Final (?) Frontier

[neeran]

Cross-posting from my blog (Cricket Stalker): India embarks upon a rare tour of New Zealand this month, and the team has just been announced. In the old days, whenever India toured Australia, they would also tour New Zealand. Of course travel was much tougher, so if you'd already travelled all the way to Australia, might as well hop over to New Zealand and play a few games there. These days, the cricket calendar is so crazy, and driven by marketability, that we don't travel often enough to that lovely country. Truth be told, New Zealand might be seen as the final frontier for this Indian team. They have proved themselves capable of winning Tests (and even series, in some cases) in Australia, South Africa, England, West Indies, Pakistan, and now Sri Lanka as well. But New Zealand has always been a tough tour. Even before this tour, no less a person than Sachin Tendulkar has gone on record saying that, perhaps to manage expectations. This is despite the fact that New Zealand is a pretty weak team overall. Their top-order batting has been struggling for ages now, although their lower order (with the likes of Oram and Vettori) has bailed them out regularly. Their pace bowling doesn't appear threatening, in the tragic absence of Shane Bond. Their spin attack of Vettori and Jeetan Patel is competent but hardly one to run through an Indian batting lineup. And yet, we quiver at the thought of a Test series in New Zealand. The reason is simple -- the Indian batting is simply untested in the conditions that prevail in New Zealand, conducive as they are to seam and swing bowling. Knowing their strength, and our weakness, it's clear that the pitches will be grassy and moist, like they were on the last Indian tour. These days, batsmen don't get to play on such pitches at all. Pitches in India were never seam-friendly of course. But even in the West Indies, England or Australia, pitches are increasingly batsman-friendly, due in no small part to the demands of one-day and T20 cricket. So I'd suspect it's not just Indian batsmen who would struggle on New Zealand pitches. So, does this Indian team have it in them to conquer this final frontier? I think so. The bowling is not a concern really, with the likes of Zaheer, Ishant and Munaf Patel perfectly capable of exploiting the seaming conditions. But that's never been a problem in New Zealand really. In helpful conditions, even "ordinary" bowlers can produce the wickets. Back in the 1980s for example, Chetan Sharma and Roger Binny had done well in England. Venky Prasad did superbly in South Africa in helpful conditions, as did Sreesanth more recently. No, it's really the batting that's going to be tested. Now my prediction is that Rahul Dravid will reclaim that sobriquet of "The Wall" -- he's perfectly equipped technically to succeed in seaming conditions. Laxman is a bit less certain of his off stump, but he's still likely to dominate the bowling. I think he will enjoy the relatively gentle pace of the current New Zealand bowling. Sehwag is likely to struggle -- he does not enjoy playing the moving ball at all, and generally succeeds because his sheer talent at hard-eye coordination bails him out. In seaming / swinging conditions, he will be sorely tested. Much the same can be said of Yuvraj Singh. If Yuvraj is lucky, he'll come into bat at #6 with a decent score on the board and the ball having lost its shine. But I don't expect him to particularly shine on this tour. That leaves Gambhir and Tendulkar among the top-order batsmen. Gambhir is untested in these conditions. In his early days, he was clearly susceptible outside the off stump, and often got out nicking the ball to the slip cordon. However he seems to have tightened up his technique considerably, so he stands a good chance of surviving the new ball. And given his current streak of form, if he does so, he will cash in nicely. Certainly, he looks a better bet in these conditions than Wasim Jaffer, whose natural movements leave him susceptible to the moving ball. And finally, Tendulkar. The man has proved his ability again and again, over the years. He made those two 150s in Australia not too long ago, to shut up a lot of the critics. How long ago was that "Endulkar" headline now? And yet, and yet... despite being a big big fan of Sachin, I have to admit to nervousness over his chances in New Zealand. These days, his mindset is so completely different from those glory years. He doesn't look to dominate the bowling, and plays the survival game at least for the first 50 runs. And he doesn't survive often enough, for his talent. Look at how Brian Lara played right till his retirement. Or for that matter, Sanath Jayasuriya still does, at the age of 39. They simply trusted their ability and their bodies more than Sachin seems to. Survival isn't a great strategy on pitches where the ball seams both ways, and even innocuous bowlers like Nathan Astle or Gavin Larsen pick up wickets. I think Sachin really ought to try and dominate the bowling, but I'm almost certain that he won't attempt to. Make no mistake, in a 3 Test series, he will still succeed a couple of times using his strategy. And that might be good enough for the team to pull off a win or two, especially if a couple of the other batsmen have good series. But somehow it's less than satisfactory for old fans of Sachin like myself, who have been watching him from age 15 (I saw his Duleep debut at Wankhede, where he scored, no surprise, a century). Having said that, I do believe that India this time around have the bowling firepower, adequate batting, and thanks to Dhoni, the belief, to win in New Zealand. It may not be generally seen as a great achievement, but I do think it will be fabulous if we can pull it off. Notice that I've said nothing about the one-dayers or T20s. Now those formats just don't test the batsmen enough, so we might have a relatively easier time there - although New Zealand do have a decent team now, having just proved that against Australia. But ODIs are just not interesting enough these days, and T20s are starting to seem all-too-familiar, so I can't bring myself to be excited about those games. It's enough to read up a match report in the newspaper, or follow the game on CricInfo. But the Tests will be really interesting, and watchable ball-by-ball on TV. Here's looking forward to alarm clocks going off at unearthly hours in the next month!

[cowboysfan]

gambhir might still have some problems.he tries to work a lot of ball outside the off stump towards 3rd man-this could be dangerous in new zealand and it remains to be seen whether his walking across his stumps will work there.excellent post neeran.the matches start in the evenings for people in the us.so good watching for me.

[neeran]

gambhir might still have some problems.he tries to work a lot of ball outside the off stump towards 3rd man-this could be dangerous in new zealand and it remains to be seen whether his walking across his stumps will work there.

He does that often in the limited overs stuff, but I thought he was holding himself back quite admirably in the Tests against Australia and Lanka. He's got a smouldering sort of aggression to his batting (not the Yusuf Pathan type), which works well as an opener in the limited overs game. Hopefully he'll be able to switch onto Test match mode when the time comes.

excellent post neeran.the matches start in the evenings for people in the us.so good watching for me.

Thanks, and lucky you.

[Fontaine]

He does that often in the limited overs stuff' date=' but I thought he was holding himself back quite admirably in the Tests against Australia and Lanka. He's got a smouldering sort of aggression to his batting (not the Yusuf Pathan type), which works well as an opener in the limited overs game. Hopefully he'll be able to switch onto Test match mode when the time comes.[/quote'] I think Gambhir will do well in NZ because his footwork is much improved along with his confidence. For me, the best way to play in those swinging conditions is to get on the front foot early in line of the ball to try to negate as much swing as possible. And we all know that Gambhir is very good at batting outside his crease and taking a strong step forward even against good pace bowling against the new ball. If the ball swings a lot in the air before pitching then this might not work, but then again there's very little you can do if the ball is swinging that way.

[Lord]

Having said that, I do believe that India this time around have the bowling firepower, adequate batting, and thanks to Dhoni, the belief, to win in New Zealand.

we beat aus in aus,SA in SA,ENG in ENG,WI in WI,PAK in PAK in SRL in SRL before Dhoni took over,so its wrong to credit the 'belief to do well' to Dhoni alone

[The Outsider]

Good write up and I agree with some of the stuff but not with a lot of others : 1. The pitches this time are not going to be anything like last time. 2002-03 tour pitches were an exception because they were drop in pitches which had not dried up. This year is not going to be anything like that - specially Napier which has traditionally been a batting paradise. A bigger challenge this year will be the cold and wet weather given we are touring so late in the year than the pitches. 2. I don't really agree with the notion that our bowling has been fine in the previous tours. For example 150 should have been more than enough to defend on our last tour there when Zaheer lost it completely in the second innings and leaked runs at 5 RPO. You cannot win low scoring tests if your premier strike bowler is being carted around - there are no second chances in low scoring matches. Or the tour in '98 when we could not defend 230 odd runs despite having half the side out for 120. Or for that matter the Auckland match in '90 where Azhar made 192 - we had NZ 120 odd for 7 I think before Ian Smith made 170 runs. Our bowling has been as much if not more to blame than our batting. 3. Dravid has been very vulnerable outside the off stump lately - Flintoff and Johnson have troubled him on relatively flat pitches. I don't see how he can be backed to succeed in conditions where there is bound to be some movement at the very least.

[bunny]

Good write up and I agree with some of the stuff but not with a lot of others : 1. The pitches this time are not going to be anything like last time. 2002-03 tour pitches were an exception because they were drop in pitches which had not dried up. This year is not going to be anything like that - specially Napier which has traditionally been a batting paradise. A bigger challenge this year will be the cold and wet weather given we are touring so late in the year than the pitches. 2. I don't really agree with the notion that our bowling has been fine in the previous tours. For example 150 should have been more than enough to defend on our last tour there when Zaheer lost it completely in the second innings and leaked runs at 5 RPO. You cannot win low scoring tests if your premier strike bowler is being carted around - there are no second chances in low scoring matches. Or the tour in '98 when we could not defend 230 odd runs despite having half the side out for 120. Or for that matter the Auckland match in '90 where Azhar made 192 - we had NZ 120 odd for 7 I think before Ian Smith made 170 runs. Our bowling has been as much if not more to blame than our batting. 3. Dravid has been very vulnerable outside the off stump lately - Flintoff and Johnson have troubled him on relatively flat pitches. I don't see how he can be backed to succeed in conditions where there is bound to be some movement at the very least.

One of the best posts I've seen...breaking all myths !!

[Show_stopper]

Getting back to the title..i believe this isn't the fianl frontier. At this stage..it is the first hurdle for us to progress further.Aus and SA will come next..if they accomplish this ofcourse.

[matma]

Very good write up. But with any, there are a few holes there. 1. Overconfidence. Dhoni alluded to that with Gary Kirsten. Any great team will never go into a tour overconfident, it can end up biting you in the ass, and if you happen to lose a match, the media will rip into you. This puts undue pressure on players to perform. When players are under immense pressure, they will normally do things they shouldn't. I like what Dhoni said in the interview - he is a very class captain. While deep down inside the Indians know they should win the Tests comfortably, not many will come forth and say this, except maybe Bhajji :winky: 2. NZ bowling attack. The same attack that ripped through the Australians on a batsmens belter at the WACA. The NZers know their limitations, what they can do, and they do it. Pace means nothing when you can swing the ball - ask Zaheer. Vettori will be our key bowler in the middle stages of games. Mills, Southee, O'Brien will have to bowl their hearts out. What better way to do it than bowling against the best 6 in the world with the Indians. 3. NZ Batsmen. For the past 10 years I have always been under the belief that playing well against Australia is the benchmark for an international player. Our batsmen, all raw, young with a handful of matches behind them, played well against the Australians. India is a test for them. 4. While India may see this as the Final Frontier - NZ see this as a testing ground for our young team. This will seperate the boys from the men for the Kiwis. Lets hope this is not a walkover for crickets sake.

[fineleg]

Or the tour in '98 when we could not defend 230 odd runs despite having half the side out for 120. Or for that matter the Auckland match in '90 where Azhar made 192 - we had NZ 120 odd for 7 I think before Ian Smith made 170 runs. Our bowling has been as much if not more to blame than our batting. .

What the hell! 120 for 7 and then Ian Smith thrashed us! :hmpf: Hope this tour we can erase some of such pain we seem to have experienced in NZ!

[neeran]

Getting back to the title..i believe this isn't the fianl frontier. At this stage..it is the first hurdle for us to progress further.Aus and SA will come next..if they accomplish this ofcourse.

I meant "Final frontier" in the sense that Steve Waugh used it to refer to India. The Aussies hadn't been able to win a series in India for a long time... Similarly, India hasn't won a Test in NZ for 33 years, let alone a Test series. On the other hand, in recent years we seem to have at least won a Test or two in all other cricketing countries.

[neeran]

Very good write up. But with any, there are a few holes there. 1. Overconfidence. Dhoni alluded to that with Gary Kirsten. Any great team will never go into a tour overconfident, it can end up biting you in the ass, and if you happen to lose a match, the media will rip into you. This puts undue pressure on players to perform. When players are under immense pressure, they will normally do things they shouldn't. I like what Dhoni said in the interview - he is a very class captain. While deep down inside the Indians know they should win the Tests comfortably, not many will come forth and say this, except maybe Bhajji :winky:

I really don't think this Indian team is overconfident. Both Dhoni and Kirsten play a role in ensuring that, as did Sachin in warning about the tough conditions, for example. A Dravid or a Laxman would never take any opposition for granted, it's just not in their genes. It's only the likes of Harbhajan or Yuvraj who might go overboard.

2. NZ bowling attack. The same attack that ripped through the Australians on a batsmens belter at the WACA. The NZers know their limitations, what they can do, and they do it. Pace means nothing when you can swing the ball - ask Zaheer. Vettori will be our key bowler in the middle stages of games. Mills, Southee, O'Brien will have to bowl their hearts out. What better way to do it than bowling against the best 6 in the world with the Indians.

The Aussies are in a big funk right now... those sorts of collapses can happen against ordinary bowling as well. And you seem to be talking about the ODIs, in which case yes Vettori is a challenge. But in the Tests? Not so much.

3. NZ Batsmen. For the past 10 years I have always been under the belief that playing well against Australia is the benchmark for an international player. Our batsmen, all raw, young with a handful of matches behind them, played well against the Australians. India is a test for them.

What held true for10 years isn't necessarily true any more. Johnson, Hilfenhaus, Siddle and co. are really not a patch on McGrath, Lee, Gillespie, Warne.

4. While India may see this as the Final Frontier - NZ see this as a testing ground for our young team. This will seperate the boys from the men for the Kiwis. Lets hope this is not a walkover for crickets sake.

A walkover? Not likely, in either direction! I think the Indians will struggle, as usual, at the beginning of the tour. Luckily, the Tests come later - otherwise we'd succumb to the usual first-Test loss by default.

[neeran]

Good write up and I agree with some of the stuff but not with a lot of others : 1. The pitches this time are not going to be anything like last time. 2002-03 tour pitches were an exception because they were drop in pitches which had not dried up. This year is not going to be anything like that - specially Napier which has traditionally been a batting paradise. A bigger challenge this year will be the cold and wet weather given we are touring so late in the year than the pitches.

True, the pitches were abominable the last time around. They might be better now. But the conditions will be a big challenge for the Indians. And on past tours too, even with less-than-terrifying pitches, we've never managed to win.

2. I don't really agree with the notion that our bowling has been fine in the previous tours. For example 150 should have been more than enough to defend on our last tour there when Zaheer lost it completely in the second innings and leaked runs at 5 RPO. You cannot win low scoring tests if your premier strike bowler is being carted around - there are no second chances in low scoring matches.

Agreed. The examples I gave were from tours to other countries, we've not really bowled well in NZ.

3. Dravid has been very vulnerable outside the off stump lately - Flintoff and Johnson have troubled him on relatively flat pitches. I don't see how he can be backed to succeed in conditions where there is bound to be some movement at the very least.

Ah, but that's just form not ability. I'm backing him (or hoping, really) to come back to form. In which case, he's our best bet at negating the swing and seam.