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The Two Horse Race In Bihar

Sir john

By Sir john
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Sir john

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The first phase of polling in Bihar is scheduled for Thursday this week. The Assembly election is crucial for both Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav and will determine if caste is still King. "Nitish Kumar should look for alternative accommodation after the election since he will have to vacate the CM's official residence — Lalu nat3.jpgWEAKNESSES Unable to defend record of 15 years of RJD rule in the state Still facing trial in fodder-scam cases Seen as a politician who is quick to promise anything Notwithstanding wooing by him of Rajputs, upper castes do not trust him Does not have another leader to campaign for the party.

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"Laluji should not worry. I will ensure that he lives close to the CM's bungalow because I believe in keeping critics by my side — Nitish nat4.jpg WEAKNESS Infighting within his own party over tickets Association with BJP a drag Congress may make dents into his base Upper castes wary about his radical policies

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Minority votes still hold the key nat2.jpg Four months ago the results of the Bihar election appeared a foregone conclusion. Nitish Kumar appeared firmly on the saddle as Chief Minister and the opposition was in disarray. The TINA ( There is no alternative) factor seemed to be working in Kumar's favour as Biharis seemed loath to give Lalu Yadav and his wife another chance. Didn't they rule over Bihar for a decade and a half ? The contrast between that period and the relatively peaceful and orderly NDA rule seemed to have left voters with no choice but to give Bihar's 'Vikas Purush' a second term. But with the state gearing up for the first of the six-phase polling this week, the picture appears less clear and far more complicated. Caste and clan factors, which always played a decisive role in Bihar, along with feudal considerations seem to be strong enough to cast a cloud of uncertainty, although everyone agrees that the NDA is the favourite . But it is no longer a one-horse race. There are, in fact, three horses in the fray and the race appears to be a close one. Nitish Kumar, however, is pinning his hopes on 'forward-looking' first-time voters, who have no patience with caste politics, and his record of governance to win the election and get a second term in office as the Chief Minister of one of the most populous and problematic states. It is worth noting that Bihar has almost four times the population of Punjab. He is confidently stomping the state, reminding people of Bihari pride and seeking a second chance to carry forward his agenda. On paper at least, the performance of his government has been impressive. Roads and bridges have been built at a fast clip, law and order has been restored, 50,000 criminals have been convicted, including strongmen and politicians from the Chief Minister's own party, teachers have been appointed and schools and hospitals made functional. The minority Muslims expected little from Nitish , largely because of his alliance with the BJP. But the Chief Minister moved fast to book the culprits of the Bhagalpur riots ( 1989) and secured for the victims of the riot compensation on the lines of the package offered to the Sikhs after the riots in 1984. His firm stand on not allowing Narendra Modi and Varun Gandhi to campaign in Bihar also earned for him the confidence of the community. The government also spent Rs 200 crores in fencing graveyards. It is a measure of the growing acceptability of Nitish Kumar that JD (U) has fielded as many as 16 Muslim candidates in the election this time, as against 8 in the last election in 2005. Nitish Kumar expects the voter turn-out to be larger than last time and that, he believes, will do the trick for him. He is also putting his faith on women, who, he points out, were given 50 per cent reservation in panchayats by his government. The 'empowered' women , he is sure, would like him to continue. The results, expected to be announced on November 24, will surprise everyone, predicts the Chief Minister, almost hinting at a landslide. People are fed up with divisive politics and caste considerations, he believes, and are certainly going to give a thumbs up to the urgency to move forward and catch up with the rest of the country. The key is held by the caste cookie and how it crumbles. In the last election the upper castes in Bihar went all out to support the NDA to get rid of Lalu Yadav. But this time they seem divided, largely because of Nitish Kumar's aggressive wooing of the Extremely Backward Castes. While the state government did shelve land-reforms measures to protect the interests of sharecroppers, the upper castes are suspicious of Kumar's intentions. As Bihar gets ready for the first phase of polling on Thursday, October 21 this week, there are no easy answers though. Will Nitish get a second term in office ? Will Lalu Yadav-Ram Bilas Paswan be able to mobilise their support among their castemen and women ? Finally, will Rahul Gandhi and the Congress be able to revive the national party's fortune in the state ? The Congress, which could win only 9 seats in the 243-member Assembly in 2005 and only 2 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in 2009, is contesting all the 243 seats for the first time in several decades. While it is unlikely to win too many seats-primarily because of a shortage of credible state-level leaders and even candidates---the party is clearly hoping to act as spoilers. Its presence in all the constituencies has the potential of engineering a three-way split of votes, making the outcome far less certain. Another uncertainty dogging the election is the Ayodhya verdict. A large section of Muslims , although not vocal, seem to be in no mood to forgive the Congress for the court's verdict on Babri Masjid. The idol of Ram Lalla, they argue, was placed in the mosque during Congress-rule; the disputed site was opened to devotees during Congress-rule and the mosque was demolished also when a Congress government was at the Centre. And, finally, the verdict upholding the Hindu rights over the mosque has also come when a Congress-led government is at the Centre. That has convinced many among them that Congress did not do enough to ensure a fair judgment. It is not clear whether this is a fringe view or whether the community overwhelmingly holds the party guilty. But there is little doubt that the verdict will have a bearing on the election and could well influence the future course of politics. The first election surveys indicate a skirmish in the offing. While giving the NDA the edge, none of them rules out a strong showing by Lalu Yadav led alliance of the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Lok Janshakti Party. Lalu is still banking on the MY ( Muslim-Yadav) magic that kept him and his wife in the saddle for 15 years. The rainbow coalition is largely intact and given his political skills, his ability to strike a rapport with the masses and his ability to make fancy promises, he can't just be ruled out as a spent-force. Confusion has been confounded by deserters from both sides. A large number of 'leaders' have switched allegiance after feeling sidelined. The BJP state president Dr C.P. Thakur in fact resigned before BJP's national leaders managed to placate him. It's going to be a long-drawn affair with the polling to be held till the third week of November. While crystal gazing is not advisable so early in the election, bravehearts have predicted a landslide in favour of the NDA while more cautious analysts have played it safe and see a fractured mandate or Nitish Kumar pipping his erstwhile friend to the post. But then the people of Bihar are politically savvy and could well prove the pundits wrong.

Mamu Newbie

Mamu

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09:11 AM RJD chief Lalu Prasad heading for a rout: Rabri Devi trails in Raghopur, leads from Sonepur. Lalu losing ground in major bastions. Rediff.com's Rajorshi Sanyal says Nitish's early innings is turning out to be like a Virender Sehwag flyer
Mamu Newbie

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09:14 AM JDU 71, RJD 16, CONG 4, OTHERS 9: RJD chief Lalu Prasad goes into hiding as rout is clearly indicated. A day earlier Lalu said his doors would be thrown open to the press from 8am on Wednesday.
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