The Narendra Modi thread

[someone]

Maybe the hundreds of thousands of displaced Muslims in Gujarat can answer that question.

They do answer by voting for Modi. And don't always bring the religion card everytime. Gujarat people understand that well enough

[The Outsider]

They do answer by voting for Modi. And don't always bring the religion card everytime. Gujarat people understand that well enough

So, do Indian people who p!ss on Modi election after election. Managed to win 30 seats out of 180 in which he campaigned. :hysterical:

[seedhi]

Maybe the hundreds of thousands of displaced Muslims in Gujarat can answer that question.

But Nitish et al. dont have a problem with Vajpayee who was PM or Advani who was HM. That is the hypocrisy. Furthermore, he (Nitish Kumar) remained in the cabinet during Godhra and the subsequent riots ... which means his current position is not based on principle but opportunism. In any case, there is no one else in BJP who has even a whiff of a chance at leading the party to victory other than Modi. So JD(U) and BJP will split sooner or later. This could lead to RJD being back in power which would be a huge disaster for Bihar.

[The Outsider]

But Nitish et al. dont have a problem with Vajpayee who was PM or Advani who was HM. That is the hypocrisy. Furthermore, he (Nitish Kumar) remained in the cabinet during Godhra and the subsequent riots ... which means his current position is not based on principle but opportunism. In any case, there is no one else in BJP who has even a whiff of a chance at leading the party to victory other than Modi. So JD(U) and BJP will split sooner or later. This could lead to RJD being back in power which would be a huge disaster for Bihar.

Vajpayee himself has/had a problem with Modi and wanted to throw him out, but was overruled by RSS and other loony elements in the BJP so why would Nitish have a problem with Vajpayee or with working in his cabinet due to some loony CM who has no presence outside his state? It's clear to see who is the nutcase in all this - first Naveen Patnaik and now Nitish Kumar, both with extremely good governing records have given the finger to a Modi influenced BJP. And if JD-U is not going to retain power in Bihar, BJP will be wiped out like it was in Orissa. With ghanta seats from UP and Bihar I would be interested to see how BJP can get to 172 forget about 272.

[seedhi]

Vajpayee himself has/had a problem with Modi and wanted to throw him out' date=' but was overruled by RSS and other loony elements in the BJP so why would Nitish have a problem with Vajpayee or with working in his cabinet due to some loony CM who has no presence outside his state?[/quote']The same sources that make this claim also say that it was in fact Advani who saved Modi from being sacked. So how does NK justify his support for Advani on one hand and loathing of Modi ? If administrative failure is a reason then Advani would also share the blame. Naveen Patnaik did not leave the BJP because of Modi etc. He had problems with the BJP state unit which wanted to contest more seats than before. Also, the Congress -- out of spite for Naveen Patnaik -- has basically stalled all industrial projects in Orissa and so BJD is a potential ally for the BJP: Secondly, Nitish Kumar himself is feeling the heat. That is the reason he has not broken up with BJP already and purportedly given it time till December to decide the candidate, so he is playing for time as he is not confident of his approach.

[The Outsider]

The same sources that make this claim also say that it was in fact Advani who saved Modi from being sacked. So how does NK justify his support for Advani on one hand and loathing of Modi ? If administrative failure is a reason then Advani would also share the blame.

Advani is too old and not even in serious contention to be the PM. He even gave up his position as the leader of the opposition.

Naveen Patnaik did not leave the BJP because of Modi etc. He had problems with the BJP state unit which wanted to contest more seats than before. Also, the Congress -- out of spite for Naveen Patnaik -- has basically stalled all industrial projects in Orissa and so BJD is a potential ally for the BJP:

Utter crap. It's a well known fact that Naveen Patnaik snapped ties with the BJP because BJP did not dissociate itself with Bajrang Dal, who were responsible for the Kandhamal riots. And anyways, the BJP was asking for too many seats and Naveen was proven right in the elections when BJP was wiped out. http://ibnlive.in.com/news/kandhamal-riots-forced-bjd-to-snap-ties-with-bjp/88069-37.html Modi represents the right wing of the BJP.

Secondly, Nitish Kumar himself is feeling the heat. That is the reason he has not broken up with BJP already and purportedly given it time till December to decide the candidate, so he is playing for time as he is not confident of his approach.

Quite obviously, Nitish would want to make his position safe first. That's how politics works everywhere so not sure what your point is here?

[jairamesh]

Congi and BJP are the same dogs with different colour fur. Both full of filth and hypocrisy. Nitish Kumar is turning into one big joke, following in the path of retards like Pappu and Mamata.

[ravishingravi]

Congi and BJP are the same dogs with different colour fur. Both full of filth and hypocrisy. Nitish Kumar is turning into one big joke' date=' following in the path of retards like Pappu and Mamata.[/quote'] So kejriwal it is then.

[jairamesh]

So kejriwal it is then.

Still sticking with modi, but the rest of BJP gives little hope.

[seedhi]

Advani is too old and not even in serious contention to be the PM. He even gave up his position as the leader of the opposition.

But JD(U) is supporting him for the PM candidacy. Also, JD(U) supported him in 2009 as well. Clear hypocrisy.

Utter crap. It's a well known fact that Naveen Patnaik snapped ties with the BJP because BJP did not dissociate itself with Bajrang Dal, who were responsible for the Kandhamal riots.

I dont think this is the case, the Kandhamal issue was raised only after BJD and BJP had split as part of usual blame game. It was all about seats and not ideology. Can you post any link which states that BJD had demanded BJP dissociate with Bajrang Dal before the split ? In any case, it seems that BJD is prepared to support Modi as part of post-poll alliance, which is understandable given their horrendous experience with UPA's policy of stalling industrial expansion in Orissa.

Modi represents the right wing of the BJP.

So does Advani or Jaitley or Sushma Swaraj - they all are right wing and are ideologically similar to each other.

Quite obviously, Nitish would want to make his position safe first. That's how politics works everywhere so not sure what your point is here?

Point is that in case of a break-up it is quite possible that RJD gains and JD(U) loses, it is not a situation like Orissa where there was no alternative to Naveen Patnaik.

[The Outsider]

But JD(U) is supporting him for the PM candidacy. Also, JD(U) supported him in 2009 as well. Clear hypocrisy.

It's not ideal, but Modi is even a worse scum than Advani. Perhaps JD-U draw their line at Advani, if it were me I would draw it earlier.

I dont think this is the case, the Kandhamal issue was raised only after BJD and BJP had split as part of usual blame game. It was all about seats and not ideology. Can you post any link which states that BJD had demanded BJP dissociate with Bajrang Dal before the split ? In any case, it seems that BJD is prepared to support Modi as part of post-poll alliance, which is understandable given their horrendous experience with UPA's policy of stalling industrial expansion in Orissa.

They've ruled out any pre poll alliance because they have nothing to gain from the BJP from an electoral perspective. They have not said they will support Modi. All they have said is that they are not ruling out the possibility. Doesn't mean anything.

So does Advani or Jaitley or Sushma Swaraj - they all are right wing and are ideologically similar to each other.

Modi is a nutcase on a different level.

Point is that in case of a break-up it is quite possible that RJD gains and JD(U) loses, it is not a situation like Orissa where there was no alternative to Naveen Patnaik.

But it's also clear that BJP has much more to lose than JD-U. There is a good chance that JD-U can come to power in Bihar even without BJP support, but there is no chance for BJP to form a government at the center without carrying significant seats from UP and Bihar. In case of snapping of ties with JD-U, BJP will definitely be wiped out from Bihar like it was in Orissa. Anyways, assembly elections in Bihar are in end of 2015 so the more immediate impact will be for the BJP at the center. JD-U will still have a year and a half to repair the damage from breaking of the alliance.

[seedhi]

They've ruled out any pre poll alliance because they have nothing to gain from the BJP from an electoral perspective. They have not said they will support Modi. All they have said is that they are not ruling out the possibility. Doesn't mean anything.

All I am saying is that BJD is a potential post-poll partner supporting Modi, which is true.

But it's also clear that BJP has much more to lose than JD-U. There is a good chance that JD-U can come to power in Bihar even without BJP support, but there is no chance for BJP to form a government at the center without carrying significant seats from UP and Bihar. In case of snapping of ties with JD-U, BJP will definitely be wiped out from Bihar like it was in Orissa.

I dont see BJP being wiped out in Bihar, it has a traditional support base there unlike in Orissa. As far as forming a government at the center, the first priority for the BJP is to win enough seats on its own. Without Modi, BJP has almost no chance of crossing 120-130. With Modi it may get 30-40 seats more especially in urban areas which BJP pretty much lost in 2009. It could do better in UP as well tapping into the recent riot related and general disenchantment with SP.

Anyways, assembly elections in Bihar are in end of 2015 so the more immediate impact will be for the BJP at the center. JD-U will still have a year and a half to repair the damage from breaking of the alliance.

I am thinking more in terms of what damage RJD could do to the state of Bihar. I would not want even a 1% possibility of it coming back, considering what it did from 1990-2005.

[The Outsider]

All I am saying is that BJD is a potential post-poll partner supporting Modi, which is true.

I don't see them supporting a Modi led government. They are likely to support a BJP government led by someone else. Anyhow, it's speculation at this point.

I dont see BJP being wiped out in Bihar, it has a traditional support base there unlike in Orissa.

BJP/Jan Sangh has never had much of a base in Bihar. It has traditionally been Congress, Janta Party, Janta Dal who have had influence over Bihar politics. They have been able to build some base over the last few years based on Nitish's performance but how that will hold if ties with Nitish are snapped is a big unknown. There is a very real chance for them going down the Orissa way.

As far as forming a government at the center, the first priority for the BJP is to win enough seats on its own. Without Modi, BJP has almost no chance of crossing 120-130. With Modi it may get 30-40 seats more especially in urban areas which BJP pretty much lost in 2009.

That's a myth. Modi has done jack outside Gujarat. No one gives a feck about him beyond Gujarat and the internet as was shown by his terrible performance in the last elections.

It could do better in UP as well tapping into the recent riot related and general disenchantment with SP. I am thinking more in terms of what damage RJD could do to the state of Bihar. I would not want even a 1% possibility of it coming back, considering what it did from 1990-2005.

Bihar's electoral alliance will have to be on JD-U's terms. They have a popular and performing CM and traditional base in the state. It would be stupid for BJP to lay down the demands in Bihar. I don't see any transformation in BJP's UP fortunes till they can do a proper revamp in the party and get rid of people like Rajnath Singh.

[asterix]

Modi will and should never be the PM. There's even doubt of NDA even coming to power... I foresee a split in BJP in near future...

[seedhi]

BJP/Jan Sangh has never had much of a base in Bihar. It has traditionally been Congress' date=' Janta Party, Janta Dal who have had influence over Bihar politics. They have been able to build some base over the last few years based on Nitish's performance but how that will hold if ties with Nitish are snapped is a big unknown. There is a very real chance for them going down the Orissa way.[/quote']BJP in fact had a higher hit-rate (seats won vs contested) compared to JD(U) and has a strong organizational structure in Bihar. It will hold its own IMO, and will probably consolidate the base in the Lok Sabha polls which if they are fought on Modi's candidacy. Vajpayee had nothing much to show electorally before he was projected as PM. Today, the BJP has no other alternative to Modi, who has the same experience and acumen and support within the party cadre as him. It is as simple as that. It took the combined base of BJP and JD(U) to beat RJD and if they split my guess is that RJD+LJP have a decent chance of coming back. Kalyan Singh is back, perhaps he can do something, and the BJPs best bet is to tap into the riots related anger and pathetic performance of SP.

[The Outsider]

BJP in fact had a higher hit-rate (seats won vs contested) compared to JD(U) and has a strong organizational structure in Bihar. It will hold its own IMO, and will probably consolidate the base in the Lok Sabha polls which if they are fought on Modi's candidacy.

That doesn't mean anything. The elections were contested as a referendum on Nitish's performance. That was the only talking point of the elections. BJP has 12 seats from Bihar. It will be cut in half if they choose to go on their own. Modi in Bihar? No one gives a feck about Modi in UP and Bihar. He had zero influence last time and will have zero influence this time.

Vajpayee had nothing much to show electorally before he was projected as PM. Today, the BJP has no other alternative to Modi, who has the same experience and acumen and support within the party cadre as him. It is as simple as that.

What? Vajpayee was a nationally recognized name and a very acceptable choice for a lot of allies. Many NDA allies would never have come on board if Advani was at the helm. BJP needed a moderate person like Vajpayee to win elections. To win again they'll need a similar moderate at the helm. Whether it's support of allies or the public, Modi won't win anything. Sometimes it looks to me that his internet fanboys live in an alternate universe.

It took the combined base of BJP and JD(U) to beat RJD and if they split my guess is that RJD+LJP have a decent chance of coming back.

You are overestimating the role of BJP in Bihar. Even if JD-U fights alone they will likely get a majority or be at least close enough to form the government. Anyhow, the Bihar elections are in 2015. If BJP pick Modi as their candidate without JD-U support they will struggle to win even 5 seats in Bihar, which is pretty much what they used to win before joining hands with JD-U

Kalyan Singh is back, perhaps he can do something, and the BJPs best bet is to tap into the riots related anger and pathetic performance of SP.

Kalyan Singh is part of the problem. He is despised in UP for his performance as CM.

[ravishingravi]

Still sticking with modi' date=' but the rest of BJP gives little hope.[/quote'] The ideal scenario would be Advani. Capitalize on anti congress sentiments. Come into power and then build from there. Make Modi more active in Delhi and build the base for next election.. But Modi is also an attention wh££e. And so is Nitish. He wants the muslim votes in Bihar, one contingent he hasn't won over. Everyone is communal I guess.

[seedhi]

Sometimes it looks to me that his internet fanboys live in an alternate universe.

All I can say is that the cadre of the BJP seems to be solidly behind Modi. Whether public is behind Modi or Advani or Jaitley or Sushma in the rest of India is anybody's guess and only time will tell. But the rank and file of the BJP are behind Modi and this makes him the obvious choice. Without the party cadre enthused the BJP will remain where it is for sure. At least Modi gives BJP a fighting chance. I dont agree with your analysis of Bihar .. let us see what happens.

[seedhi]

The ideal scenario would be Advani. Capitalize on anti congress sentiments. Come into power and then build from there. Make Modi more active in Delhi and build the base for next election.. But Modi is also an attention wh££e. And so is Nitish. He wants the muslim votes in Bihar, one contingent he hasn't won over. Everyone is communal I guess.

Advani is a tried and tested failure as PM candidate. Do we want another election fought on the Kandahar debacle and Jaswant Singh traveling with the terrorists ? Besides, he is too old now.

[The Outsider]

All I can say is that the cadre of the BJP seems to be solidly behind Modi. Whether public is behind Modi or Advani or Jaitley or Sushma in the rest of India is anybody's guess and only time will tell. But the rank and file of the BJP are behind Modi and this makes him the obvious choice. Without the party cadre enthused the BJP will remain where it is for sure. At least Modi gives BJP a fighting chance. I dont agree with your analysis of Bihar .. let us see what happens.

And how do you know that? Anyhow, BJP's past electoral success was based on having strategic pre poll alliances so that the anti Congress vote is not fragmented. With Modi at the helm, the only pre poll alliances of any significance that the BJP will able to muster are Shiv Sena and maybe the Akalis. More than the cadre being enthused it's the electoral arithmetic which is important to win elections. In 1999 due to Vajpayee's image and his ability to make strategic alliances, BJP was able to win seats in places like Tamil Nadu, Orissa, Haryana etc. Not only did it help in gaining support from other parties for the government, but it helped BJP's numbers as well due to seat sharing arrangements. With Modi, the BJP might as well throw in the towel right now.