The Narendra Modi thread

[ravishingravi]

Advani is a tried and tested failure as PM candidate. Do we want another election fought on the Kandahar debacle and Jaswant Singh traveling with the terrorists ? Besides' date=' he is too old now.[/quote'] Not bad scenario because those talking points will make no dents on BJP. Anti congress sentiments are strong enough to get the through subject to the coalition. You can change things once you are in power. There is just no freaking way that Modi be able to get the numbers.

[jairamesh]

The ideal scenario would be Advani. Capitalize on anti congress sentiments. Come into power and then build from there. Make Modi more active in Delhi and build the base for next election.. But Modi is also an attention wh££e. And so is Nitish. He wants the muslim votes in Bihar, one contingent he hasn't won over. Everyone is communal I guess.

Whatever attention seeking wh*re, Modi might be, he is also provided the sanest roadmaps to get the country moving, socially and economically. The elite (Congress and BJP) fear Modi because he is willing to empower all through education, jobs, industries, etc and get millions offf being held hostage to willy nilly government welfare programs. One example of lack of any understanding of development was pappu's views (effectively Congress's view) on China. It was pathetically kindergarten level understanding of China and it's rise. This is rather worrying coming from a party containing chindu, pranab, Ayer, jairam. Though Modi can only be successful if he BJP gets gets an outright majority mandate, which is obviously fantasy stuff.

[seedhi]

And how do you know that?

From media reports, from what credible people sympathetic to the BJP (eg. Ashok Malik) are writing, and from the demands Modi gets from BJP contestants from various states to campaign for them. Obviously, I have not conducted a poll myself but it is pretty clear that Modi is the most popular leader within the BJP.

Anyhow, BJP's past electoral success was based on having strategic pre poll alliances so that the anti Congress vote is not fragmented. With Modi at the helm, the only pre poll alliances of any significance that the BJP will able to muster are Shiv Sena and maybe the Akalis. More than the cadre being enthused it's the electoral arithmetic which is important to win elections. In 1999 due to Vajpayee's image and his ability to make strategic alliances, BJP was able to win seats in places like Tamil Nadu, Orissa, Haryana etc. Not only did it help in gaining support from other parties for the government, but it helped BJP's numbers as well due to seat sharing arrangements.

With Modi the BJP will just lose one pre-poll ally - the JD(U). Most other parties (Jayalalitha, Mamata, TDP) are anyway going to align with BJP (if at all) only post-poll. So it is just a question of one ally - JD(U). I doubt there are any parties other than JD(U) who want a veto on Modi but are ready to support BJP otherwise in a pre-poll alliance. No other party has made such an indication.

With Modi, the BJP might as well throw in the towel right now.

The towel is already thrown, only Modi is the anti-status quoist. Rest of the lot in BJP are comfortably ensconced in the respective roles and are averse to taking risks.

[seedhi]

Not bad scenario because those talking points will make no dents on BJP. Anti congress sentiments are strong enough to get the through subject to the coalition. You can change things once you are in power. There is just no freaking way that Modi be able to get the numbers.

Those same talking points worked the last time and they will work again. With Advani there is nothing positive to project for the BJP. Modi at least has a track record of development and efficient governance using which BJP can run a positive campaign rather than a negative campaign relying on anti-congressism which failed miserably last time.

[The Outsider]

From media reports, from what credible people sympathetic to the BJP (eg. Ashok Malik) are writing, and from the demands Modi gets from BJP contestants from various states to campaign for them. Obviously, I have not conducted a poll myself but it is pretty clear that Modi is the most popular leader within the BJP.

The internet media is strongly biased towards Modi and trusting it beyond a certain point is foolhardy just like the India shining campaign that was sold through the internet in 2004.

With Modi the BJP will just lose one pre-poll ally - the JD(U). Most other parties (Jayalalitha, Mamata, TDP) are anyway going to align with BJP (if at all) only post-poll. So it is just a question of one ally - JD(U). I doubt there are any parties other than JD(U) who want a veto on Modi but are ready to support BJP otherwise in a pre-poll alliance. No other party has made such an indication.

Look at the pre poll allies BJP had in '99 when they won - BJD, TC, DMK, TDP, SS, SAD, JMM, LD, JD-U, JKNC. All of them are potential allies if BJP has a moderate leader of stature like Vajpayee. They might not have given an indication till now but elections are a year away and all those parties are inherently anti Congress parties so can be allies. None of them would touch Modi though except SS and maybe SAD.

[CSK Fan]

Whatever attention seeking wh*re, Modi might be, he is also provided the sanest roadmaps to get the country moving, socially and economically. The elite (Congress and BJP) fear Modi because he is willing to empower all through education, jobs, industries, etc and get millions offf being held hostage to willy nilly government welfare programs. .

I would really want to know what is this outstanding model Modi is trying to project and how is it different from many other states out there. What exactly is his vision to take the country forward economically? So far Gujrat is only a role model industry wise, even Bihar has done better educationaly. Gujrat was already in a pretty decent state when Modi took over, not like it was like Bihar. As Nitish said, gujrat model might not work for the whole country. Why not the Bihar model? After all, Bihar has showed higher growth in women's education, per capita income growth, etc, as compared to Gujrat. On the other hand, Gujrat is still suffering fromm droughts and major water shortage in many areas.

[seedhi]

The internet media is strongly biased towards Modi and trusting it beyond a certain point is foolhardy just like the India shining campaign that was sold through the internet in 2004.

BJP leaders themselves are saying that Modi is the most popular leader within the party. Clearly, people sympathetic to the BJP and the leaders of BJP know what is going on within the party at least.

Look at the pre poll allies BJP had in '99 when they won - BJD, TC, DMK, TDP, SS, SAD, JMM, LD, JD-U, JKNC. All of them are potential allies if BJP has a moderate leader of stature like Vajpayee. They might not have given an indication till now but elections are a year away and all those parties are inherently anti Congress parties so can be allies. None of them would touch Modi though except SS and maybe SAD.

How many of those parties had a pre-poll alliance with BJP in 2009? The BJD, TMC, TDP, DMK, JKNC, all had left BJP by 2009 with Advani at the helm. I dont think JMM or LD would have a problem specifically with Modi. The joker in the pack is JD(U) and BJP should not sacrifice its Ace for the joker.

[jairamesh]

I would really want to know what is this outstanding model Modi is trying to project and how is it different from many other states out there. What exactly is his vision to take the country forward economically? So far Gujrat is only a role model industry wise, even Bihar has done better educationaly. Gujrat was already in a pretty decent state when Modi took over, not like it was like Bihar. As Nitish said, gujrat model might not work for the whole country. Why not the Bihar model? After all, Bihar has showed higher growth in women's education, per capita income growth, etc, as compared to Gujrat. On the other hand, Gujrat is still suffering fromm droughts and major water shortage in many areas.

There has been plenty written in the press and plenty said by Modi about his vision for the country. And let's not forget Gujarat is desert state, it is in a permanent state of drought. If we have Nitesh Kumar's Bihar model for India, then no sooner will India be begging to IMF. Nearly 75% of Bihar's government revenues come from borrowing/funds from Centre, despite not being under special category status. Bihar is one of the most fertile land in the world, it should be lightyears ahead of Gujarat in agriculture yet it lags vs a desert state. Have Gujarat model, TN model,or Kerala model for developing India. But no thanks to Nitish Kumar's borrowing based model.

[The Outsider]

How many of those parties had a pre-poll alliance with BJP in 2009? The BJD, TMC, TDP, DMK, JKNC, all had left BJP by 2009 with Advani at the helm. I dont think JMM or LD would have a problem specifically with Modi. The joker in the pack is JD(U) and BJP should not sacrifice its Ace for the joker.

I am talking about 1999 when the BJP won - that is the model to follow, not 2009 when they got trounced. Even if they had left by 2009 a moderate leader with broad appeal can bring them back in on an anti Congress plan. In 1999 BJP had pre poll alliance with JD-U, DMK, TDP, TC, BJD, SS, LD, SAD. That led to BJP winning unprecedented seats in places like Tamil Nadu and Andhra, not to mention a stronger showing of their allies as well due to consolidation of the anti Congress vote. Nothing makes the party cadre stronger than a realistic chance of getting power. With Modi at the helm, there is no way BJP will cross 150-170 seats and will have zero chance of gaining power.

[seedhi]

I am talking about 1999 when the BJP won - that is the model to follow, not 2009 when they got trounced. Even if they had left by 2009 a moderate leader with broad appeal can bring them back in on an anti Congress plan. In 1999 BJP had pre poll alliance with JD-U, DMK, TDP, TC, BJD, SS, LD, SAD. That led to BJP winning unprecedented seats in places like Tamil Nadu and Andhra, not to mention a stronger showing of their allies as well due to consolidation of the anti Congress vote. Nothing makes the party cadre stronger than a realistic chance of getting power. With Modi at the helm, there is no way BJP will cross 150-170 seats and will have zero chance of gaining power.

None of those parties you mentioned - TMC, TDP, JKNC, DMK, AIADMK - intend to ally with BJP pre-poll no matter who the PM candidate is. Given this reality, BJP's best bet is Modi. If tomorrow TMC, TDP and AIADMK inform the BJP even in secret that they want a pre-poll alliance without Modi as candidate, I am pretty sure even Modi himself will back down. But that is not happening so the best bet for the BJP is to maximize its own seats and then go for post-poll alliances. My guess is that all these parties are themselves planning for post-poll alliance with whoever (Congress or BJP) wins around 170 seats - so maximizing the party performance is the best bet. It is entirely possible that some compromise can be made after the poll.

[saneindian]

The split is iminent now. Nitish Kumar looks to have gone a little too far in his opposition to Modi. His entire speech today was about Modi as if that is the force he is fighting. Hasn't been well received by the BJP as the top leaders met immediately after Nitish's speech today and a message was sent to JDU "to focus on fighting the UPA and not BJP's CMs". Both the sides are preparing the ground for breaking away more so the JDU. In a way the tamasha over special status and Nitish vs Modi fight is also Nitish' way of hiding his own failures in his 2nd term which has been nothing sort of a disaster with huge power problems, rising corruption in his bureaucracy, massive anti govt agitations by the contracted teachersand even decline in health and educational improvements seen in his 1st term. Not too long he had to cancel his Adhikar Yatra in large parts of Bihar due to persistent and sometimes violet agitations.

[The Outsider]

None of those parties you mentioned - TMC, TDP, JKNC, DMK, AIADMK - intend to ally with BJP pre-poll no matter who the PM candidate is. Given this reality, BJP's best bet is Modi. If tomorrow TMC, TDP and AIADMK inform the BJP even in secret that they want a pre-poll alliance without Modi as candidate, I am pretty sure even Modi himself will back down. But that is not happening so the best bet for the BJP is to maximize its own seats and then go for post-poll alliances.

With better leadership and diplomacy parties like DMK, TDP, BJD, and JD-U can be added on to the alliance. If Vajpayee could do it over multiple elections, certainly shows it's a realistic chance. Above parties can result in a difference of 30-40 seats in the number of seats won in pre poll alliance versus a post poll alliance due to vote fragmentation even if we assume that they will offer post poll support. None of them will work with Modi and there is no way Modi's presence can make up for this 30-40 seat deficit going by past election performances. If anything his presence has been detrimental in campaigns to the BJP.

[saneindian]

With better leadership and diplomacy parties like DMK' date=' TDP, BJD, and JD-U can be added on to the alliance. If Vajpayee could do it over multiple elections, certainly shows it's a realistic chance. Above parties can result in a difference of 30-40 seats in the number of seats won in pre poll alliance versus a post poll alliance due to vote fragmentation even if we assume that they will offer post poll support. None of them will work with Modi and there is no way Modi's presence can make up for this 30-40 seat deficit going by past election performances. If anything his presence has been detrimental in campaigns to the BJP.[/quote'] For all of Vajpayee's stature, he did not get anyone's support in 1996 despite having 160+ seats. It was only after the BJP got 180+ seats, did the allies come to it in the name of anti-Congressism. Also, each of those parties you mentioned were with the BJP after the 2002 riots and when Modi won a 2nd term as Gujrat CM, everyone including Nitish Kumar said "propaganda by Congress on riots against Modi failed". Such is the lure of the power. Instead of trying to build a grand alliance, BJP should look at getting 180 seats on its own, rest of the things will get worked out post that. The good thing is Rajnath Singh has read the pulse of his cadre and is backing Modi to the hilt. Like it or not, for the BJP cadre (and it doesn't include just his 'internet fanboys'), Modi is the leader they look upto. FWIW, for destroying the party in Karnataka and by being in a cosy relationship with the present govt., the entire Dilli gang of BJP (popularly called D-4- Jaitley, Sushma, Venkaiah Naydu and Ananth Kumar with Advani as their guru) have lost faith of their own cadre, not that either of them is a mass leader bar Advani who should have retired by now.

[The Outsider]

For all of Vajpayee's stature, he did not get anyone's support in 1996 despite having 160+ seats. It was only after the BJP got 180+ seats, did the allies come to it in the name of anti-Congressism. Also, each of those parties you mentioned were with the BJP after the 2002 riots and when Modi won a 2nd term as Gujrat CM, everyone including Nitish Kumar said "propaganda by Congress on riots against Modi failed". Such is the lure of the power.

The lure of power is there for everyone in politics. That's a given. However, supporting Modi means hacking at their own base for many of these parties and obviously that's a priority.

Instead of trying to build a grand alliance, BJP should look at getting 180 seats on its own, rest of the things will get worked out post that.

I keep hearing this number and that number. Kahan se aayegeen 180 seats? Even getting to 150 will be a struggle without pre poll alliances.

The good thing is Rajnath Singh has read the pulse of his cadre and is backing Modi to the hilt. Like it or not, for the BJP cadre (and it doesn't include just his 'internet fanboys'), Modi is the leader they look upto. FWIW, for destroying the party in Karnataka and by being in a cosy relationship with the present govt., the entire Dilli gang of BJP (popularly called D-4- Jaitley, Sushma, Venkaiah Naydu and Ananth Kumar with Advani as their guru) have lost faith of their own cadre, not that either of them is a mass leader bar Advani who should have retired by now.

Arre what will the cadre do when the electoral arithmetic is not in their favor? Firstly, Modi has shown zero electoral success in the past outside Gujarat. I can say for sure he is completely irrelevant in UP and Bihar and just because the BJP cadre in these two states might feel better with Modi at the helm, does not mean that people will vote for Modi. The others you listed are not mass leaders, but neither is Modi. He is a mass leader in Gujarat and among his internet fanboys. The kind of pasting he has got in every single election campaign he has been associated with outside Gujarat is proof of it. Kahan se laayge 180 seat? Last time 180 seat mein campaign kar ke 30 jeeti thi.

[saneindian]

Last elections ka benchmark banana hai to BJP should give up and ask UPA 3 to take over. If Modi was as irrelevant, why do you think he will be under so much attack? Wouldn't his detractors instead let him take over, fail badly and then be sent into oblivion forever if the outcome was as clear cut as you suggest? Even someone like Mulayam Singh has started singing praise of Advani, kiska dar hai woh? As for 180 seats, it will have to be earned through hard work, voter outreach programs ( for which you need an active and enthused cadre), and presenting a clear cut vision and way ahead unlike the negative campaign run in 2009 by Advani. Nearly every political pundit believes Modi will add 2-3% vote share in BJP's favour in many states, could be the difference between 140 and 175-180.

[seedhi]

With better leadership and diplomacy parties like DMK' date=' TDP, BJD, and JD-U can be added on to the alliance. If Vajpayee could do it over multiple elections, certainly shows it's a realistic chance. Above parties can result in a difference of 30-40 seats in the number of seats won in pre poll alliance versus a post poll alliance due to vote fragmentation even if we assume that they will offer post poll support. None of them will work with Modi and there is no way Modi's presence can make up for this 30-40 seat deficit going by past election performances. If anything his presence has been detrimental in campaigns to the BJP.[/quote']None of those parties I mentioned intend to join BJP in a pre-poll alliance, they have made it clear several times. So instead of chasing a mirage, BJP needs to play to its own strengths. If one analyzes what went wrong in 2009 - BJP lost a lot of seats in urban areas and in north India - Delhi, Rajasthan, Punjab, Himachal, Uttrakhand and in Maharashtra. These are areas where BJP is not going to have allies anyway (except Shiv Sena) and so Modi is the one who can make a difference, more than any other BJP leader. Modi has the ability to attract the urban vote as well as revitalize the party's base - a combination that can lead to major gains for the party.

[someone]

None of those parties I mentioned intend to join BJP in a pre-poll alliance' date=' they have made it clear several times. So instead of chasing a mirage, BJP needs to play to its own strengths. If one analyzes what went wrong in 2009 - BJP lost a lot of seats in urban areas and in north India - Delhi, Rajasthan, Punjab, Himachal, Uttrakhand and in Maharashtra. These are areas where BJP is not going to have allies anyway (except Shiv Sena) and so Modi is the one who can make a difference, more than any other BJP leader. Modi has the ability to attract the urban vote as well as revitalize the party's base - a combination that can lead to major gains for the party.[/quote'] Agreed, that's the strategy it seems this time. And imo, that's their best strategy available. Getting those old and tested Advani as mentioned would already been defeat as seen in 2009 elections. And the opponents very well know about this and thus this time their whole campaign is about Modi instead of focusing on their strengths. That's not the ideal strategy for them as well.

[asterix]

Chalo, another 5 years for BJP in opposition.... God bless...Well done!

[Lurker]

Chalo' date=' another 5 years for BJP in opposition.... God bless...[b']Well done!

Why? You suddenly a Sonia supporter :cantstop: BJP is its worst enemy.

[asterix]

Why? You suddenly a Sonia supporter :cantstop: BJP is its worst enemy.

Not Sonia supporter.. But pretty disappointed by Kachchadharis... They've one the best chance to win the election as a coalition but trust them to have brainfarts to fulfill the Man in hurry's dreams... :mad: