Predictions for the 2014 General Elections in India

[The Outsider]

Here are mine - for most of the smaller states(1-2 seats) I've just filled in the numbers based on previous results as I don't know enough about the local politics in those states. Two major states where I had a tough time coming up with predictions were Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal - alliance will completely change the game here. Anyhow, just for fun put yours in and we can keep updating them after any minor/major development.

1. Andhra Pradesh - 42 Congress: 16 YRS + TRS: 16 TDP: 10 2. Arunachal Pradesh - 2 Congress: 2 3. Assam - 14 Congress: 8 BJP: 1 Others: 5 4. Bihar - 40 JDU: 15 RJD: 13 BJP: 7 Congress: 4 Others: 1 5. Chhattisgarh - 11 BJP: 8 Congress: 3 6. Goa - 2 BJP: 1 Congress: 1 7. Gujarat - 26 BJP: 18 Congress: 8 8. Haryana - 10 Congress: 6 BJP: 1 Others: 3 9. Himachal Pradesh - 4 BJP: 2 Congress: 2 10. Jammu and Kashmir - 6 Congress: 3 Others: 3 11. Jharkhand - 14 BJP: 7 Congress: 3 Others: 4 12. Karnataka - 28 Congress: 16 JDS: 6 BJP: 6 13. Kerela - 20 Congress: 12 Left: 8 14. Madhya Pradesh - 29 BJP: 22 Congress: 7 15. Maharashtra - 48 Congress + NCP: 20 BJP + SS: 28 16. Manipur - 2 Congress: 2 17. Meghalaya - 2 Congress: 2 18. Mizoram - 1 Congress: 1 19. Nagaland - 1 Congress: 1 20. Orissa - 21 BJD: 12 Congress: 9 21. Punjab - 13 Congress: 7 BJP + SAD: 6 22. Rajasthan - 25 BJP: 15 Congress: 10 23. Sikkim - 1 Congress: 1 24. Tamil Nadu - 39 AIADMK: 18 Congress: 14 DMK: 7 25. Tripura - 2 Congress: 2 26. Uttar Pradesh - 80 SP: 28 BSP: 20 BJP: 15 Congress: 15 Others: 2 27. Uttarakhand - 5 BJP: 3 Congress: 2 28. West Bengal - 42 TNC: 17 Left: 15 Congress: 10 29. Andaman and Nicobar Islands - 1 BJP: 1 30. Chandigarh - 1 BJP: 1 31. Dadra and Nagar Haveli - 1 BJP: 1 32. Daman and Diu - 1 BJP: 1 33. Delhi - 7 BJP: 4 Congress: 3 34. Lakshadweep - 1 Congress: 1 35. Pondicherry - 1 Congress: 1 Congress + NCP = 192 BJP + SS + SAD = 148 SP: 28 Left: 23 BSP: 20 AIADMK: 18 TNC: 17 YRS + TRS: 16 JDU: 15 RJD: 13 TDP: 10 DMK: 7 JDS: 6 Others: 18

[Khalpat]

4. Bihar - 40 JDU: 15 RJD: 13 BJP: 7 Congress: 4 Others: 1 Well you would be surprised after the results. JDU and RJD popularity is at all time low and Congress do not even exist here. UP, Bihar, Haryana and Karnataka will give more seat to BJP than your prediction rest all looks good.

[The Outsider]

^ Let's leave the Congress-BJP fights for other threads, and there are plenty. How about trying to keep this thread for predictions and why you think someone's prediction is wrong and someone's is right? In that spirit, can you elaborate why I have underestimated BJP numbers in those states - it's quite possible I have, but my reasons for the predictions were: 1. UP - Haven't seen any significant tilt towards Modi or Hindutva. 2. Bihar - BJP's historical and grass-root presence is very low. 3. Haryana - BJP has hardly had any presence, ever except in aliance. 4. Karnataka - Here I think they can go up from my prediction of 6, but not by much maybe up to 8-9, depends on how long their poor governance memory remains and how the new Congress government does.

[Khalpat]

^ Let's leave the Congress-BJP fights for other threads, and there are plenty. How about trying to keep this thread for predictions and why you think someone's prediction is wrong and someone's is right? In that spirit, can you elaborate why I have underestimated BJP numbers in those states - it's quite possible I have, but my reasons for the predictions were: 1. UP - Haven't seen any significant tilt towards Modi or Hindutva. 2. Bihar - BJP's historical and grass-root presence is very low. 3. Haryana - BJP has hardly had any presence, ever except in aliance. 4. Karnataka - Here I think they can go up from my prediction of 6, but not by much maybe up to 8-9, depends on how long their poor governance memory remains and how the new Congress government does.

UP: The team of Shah and Modi have prepared the strategy of targeting each and every 3 hundred thousand poll booth by placing one karyakarta per booth and strictly ordering them not to go outside the area of their poll booth and they all have to target each and every house/family concentration will be a t grasroot not district level. I think this is interesting strategy and this might work. Plus SP has been very poor in administration respect and they will certainly face the anti incumbency factor. Mayawati has stil not been able to strentghen her after recent loss in Assembly. Congress has nothing except Rahul/Sonia roadshow which I am afraid would be not helpful in even gettin g Raibareli seat. Bihar: Bihar has always been more on caste based side when voting happens. JDU has become extremely unpopular amoung Bhumihar and Forward caste who are a big vote bank for BJP. The OBC vote will be divided into RJD, JDU and BJP. Muslim vote will split into Congress, RJD and JDU which will profit BJP. My assumption is BJP will get most number of seats here. Leaders like Rudy, RaviShankar Prasad, Shehnawaz, Yashwant Si nha all belong to Bihar and will be fighting from here only which provides the star power.

[Sachin=GOD]

UP: The team of Shah and Modi have prepared the strategy of targeting each and every 3 hundred thousand poll booth by placing one karyakarta per booth and strictly ordering them not to go outside the area of their poll booth and they all have to target each and every house/family concentration will be a t grasroot not district level. I think this is interesting strategy and this might work. Plus SP has been very poor in administration respect and they will certainly face the anti incumbency factor. Mayawati has stil not been able to strentghen her after recent loss in Assembly. Congress has nothing except Rahul/Sonia roadshow which I am afraid would be not helpful in even gettin g Raibareli seat. Bihar: Bihar has always been more on caste based side when voting happens. JDU has become extremely unpopular amoung Bhumihar and Forward caste who are a big vote bank for BJP. The OBC vote will be divided into RJD, JDU and BJP. Muslim vote will split into Congress, RJD and JDU which will profit BJP. My assumption is BJP will get most number of seats here. Leaders like Rudy, RaviShankar Prasad, Shehnawaz, Yashwant Si nha all belong to Bihar and will be fighting from here only which provides the star power.

Do you remember why SP didn't win enough seats in 2009 Lok Sabha elections? Or why Cong ended up doing a stunning upset to win 22? The reason was that Mulayam Singh had joined hands with Kalyan Singh and Muslims were so angry at him for this move that they voted for Congress instead of SP. Now here we have the case of BJP, a party they anyways don't vote for and then comes Modi/Shah - do you honestly think Muslims in UP will be happy with this or that SP/Cong will not gain anything form this? I can't say what will happen in the next few months but right now the situation is such that there is no way for the BJP to win more than 15 (in fact I would be quite surprised if they end up winning even that many) in UP. In Bihar RJD is making a strong comeback and most seats lost by JDU will be gained by them. BJP is at 12 currently - I expect it to end up between 10-15 (i.e. nearly the same as last time).

[Sachin=GOD]

As for predictions, I think its too early and a LOT will change in the coming months. Right now it looks like Congress will be coming back because the BJP (or rather Modi) is giving away the election to it. For the BJP, right now I think BJP at its best would struggle to win more than 145 on its own because they are extremely weak/no existent in many states and yet they cannot have any pre poll alliances.

[randomGuy]

My guesses:

1. Andhra Pradesh - 42 Congress: 5 YRS : 14 TRS : 13 TDP: 10 2. Arunachal Pradesh - 2 Congress: 2 3. Assam - 14 Congress: 8 BJP: 1 Others: 5 4. Bihar - 40 JDU: 8 RJD: 2 BJP: 30 Congress: 0 Others: 0 5. Chhattisgarh - 11 BJP: 9 Congress: 2 6. Goa - 2 BJP: 2 Congress: 0 7. Gujarat - 26 BJP: 25 Congress: 1 8. Haryana - 10 Congress: 5 BJP: 4 Others: 1 9. Himachal Pradesh - 4 BJP: 2 Congress: 2 10. Jammu and Kashmir - 6 Congress(NC): 3 BJP: 1 Others: 2 11. Jharkhand - 14 BJP: 7 Congress: 3 Others: 4 12. Karnataka - 28 Congress: 10 JDS: 6 BJP: 12 13. Kerela - 20 Congress: 8 Left: 12 14. Madhya Pradesh - 29 BJP: 24 Congress: 5 15. Maharashtra - 48 Congress + NCP: 16 BJP + SS: 32 16. Manipur - 2 Congress: 2 17. Meghalaya - 2 Congress: 2 18. Mizoram - 1 Congress: 1 19. Nagaland - 1 Congress: 1 20. Orissa - 21 BJD: 17 BJP: 2 Congress: 2 21. Punjab - 13 Congress: 3 BJP + SAD: 10 22. Rajasthan - 25 BJP: 18 Congress: 7 23. Sikkim - 1 Congress: 1 24. Tamil Nadu - 39 AIADMK: 28 BJP(Janata party): 1 Congress: 5 DMK: 5 25. Tripura - 2 Congress: 2 26. Uttar Pradesh - 80 SP: 25 BSP: 25 BJP: 23 Congress: 5 Others: 2 27. Uttarakhand - 5 BJP: 4 Congress: 1 28. West Bengal - 42 TNC: 17 Left: 20 Congress: 5 29. Andaman and Nicobar Islands - 1 BJP: 1 30. Chandigarh - 1 BJP: 1 31. Dadra and Nagar Haveli - 1 BJP: 1 32. Daman and Diu - 1 BJP: 1 33. Delhi - 7 BJP: 6 Congress: 1 34. Lakshadweep - 1 Congress: 1 35. Pondicherry - 1 Congress: 1

Congress + NCP + NC: 99 BJP + SS + Akali + Janata Party: 217 SP: 25 Left: 32 BSP: 25 AIADMK: 28 TNC: 17 YRS: 14 TRS: 13 JDU: 8 RJD: 2 TDP: 10 DMK: 5 JDS: 6 BJD: 17

[randomGuy]

anti incumbency (of 10 years), corruption, price rise, lack of jobs, weak n sometimes non-existent leadership, anna hazare, ramdev factors - all these will result in massive defeat for congress.

[Sachin=GOD]

My guesses: Congress + NCP + NC: 99 BJP + SS + Akali + Janata Party: 217 SP: 25 Left: 32 BSP: 25 AIADMK: 28 TNC: 17 YRS: 14 TRS: 13 JDU: 8 RJD: 2 TDP: 10 DMK: 5 JDS: 6 BJD: 17

All I can say is that aaj ki date mein agar Bhagwaan bhi aajaye BJP ki campaign chalaane toh bhi BJP/NDA ko 217 seats nahi milengi.

[randomGuy]

All I can say is that aaj ki date mein agar Bhagwaan bhi aajaye BJP ki campaign chalaane toh bhi BJP/NDA ko 217 seats nahi milengi.

Its seems you really want it but saying so coz you dont wanna jinx it.:winky:

[Sachin=GOD]

Its seems you really want it but saying so coz you dont wanna jinx it.:winky:

I am a BJP supporter so yes, I do want BJP to win (as long as Modi doesn't become the PM). But I don't believe in fantasies - BJP, at its highest point, with AtalJi as the leader and with many big pre poll allies, could win only 182 on its own and here you saying 217 for NDA, out of which BJP alone would account for about 200 seats. IMHO that is just fantasy without any basis for how the BJP/NDA could actually get such high numbers (like 25 in Gujrat, 30 in Bihar, 32 in Maharashtra, 23 in UP).

[randomGuy]

I am a BJP supporter so yes, I do want BJP to win (as long as Modi doesn't become the PM). But I don't believe in fantasies - BJP, at its highest point, with AtalJi as the leader and with many big pre poll allies, could win only 182 on its own and here you saying 217 for NDA, out of which BJP alone would account for about 200 seats. IMHO that is just fantasy without any basis for how the BJP/NDA could actually get such high numbers (like 25 in Gujrat, 30 in Bihar, 32 in Maharashtra, 23 in UP).

So it will be abt Modi only in Gujarat n to some extent UP. hence 25 out of 26 in guj. 23 out of 80 in UP is not hard to get , the margins of win are also small. 30 in Bihar coz in 2009 BJP faught on 15 seats, won on 12 seats. 32\48 in Maha though optimistic, is not unrealistic. not like i am giving TN, WB, Assam, Andhra or Orissa to the BJP.

[FischerTal]

I am a BJP supporter so yes' date=' I do want BJP to win ([b']as long as Modi doesn't become the PM). But I don't believe in fantasies - BJP, at its highest point, with AtalJi as the leader and with many big pre poll allies, could win only 182 on its own and here you saying 217 for NDA, out of which BJP alone would account for about 200 seats. IMHO that is just fantasy without any basis for how the BJP/NDA could actually get such high numbers (like 25 in Gujrat, 30 in Bihar, 32 in Maharashtra, 23 in UP).

:giggle:

[Sachin=GOD]

So it will be abt Modi only in Gujarat n to some extent UP. hence 25 out of 26 in guj. 23 out of 80 in UP is not hard to get , the margins of win are also small. 30 in Bihar coz in 2009 BJP faught on 15 seats, won on 12 seats. 3248 in Maha though optimistic, is not unrealistic. not like i am giving TN, WB, Assam, Andhra or Orissa to the BJP.

25 out 26 in Gujarat is something that has never ever happened IIRC and I don't see any reason as to why it will suddenly happen now. In 2004, BJP & Cong won 14 & 12 respectively while in 2009 they won 15 & 11 respectively in Gujrat - how do you see BJP going from 14/15 to 25? Or Cong suddenly going from 11/12 to just 1? Its just unrealistic to expect this. In UP BJP has been winning 10 seats since 2004 and now with Modi as the BJP's face and Amit Shah as the state in charge of UP, I seriously doubt if BJP can cross 15. In 2009 it wasn't BJP that fought the election - it was the BJP/JDU coalition. Also, RJD was probably at its weakest point in 2009 but has now regained a lot of lost ground. This time around its a bit unpredictable in Bihar but still I don't expect BJP to win/lose more than 3-4 more/less than last time. In Maharashtra you seem to have forgotten Raj Thakrey - he may also win a few seats. 32 is optimistic but maybe, just maybe there is a chance that BJP/SS may get close to this number. All these predictions are of course according to the current political scenario. I expect a lot to change in the coming months.

[Khalpat]

Do you remember why SP didn't win enough seats in 2009 Lok Sabha elections? Or why Cong ended up doing a stunning upset to win 22? The reason was that Mulayam Singh had joined hands with Kalyan Singh and Muslims were so angry at him for this move that they voted for Congress instead of SP. Now here we have the case of BJP, a party they anyways don't vote for and then comes Modi/Shah - do you honestly think Muslims in UP will be happy with this or that SP/Cong will not gain anything form this? I can't say what will happen in the next few months but right now the situation is such that there is no way for the BJP to win more than 15 (in fact I would be quite surprised if they end up winning even that many) in UP. In Bihar RJD is making a strong comeback and most seats lost by JDU will be gained by them. BJP is at 12 currently - I expect it to end up between 10-15 (i.e. nearly the same as last time).

Muslims and that too of UP will anyhow are not going to vote for BJP so Modi or no Modi will have no effect on them. BJP has been always winning the urban Lok Sabha seats in UP, the 10-12 seat which we see are the main seats of Lucknow, Varanasi, Allahabad, Gorakhpur etc. This time Shah, who is also hailed as a good strategist is targetting the rural areas. I have met the karyakarta of BJP, beleive me with Modi they are very excited and confident of the prospect. And the strategy of one person allocated to one booth is a brilliant concept they have been told to ask people to vote for BJP on the name of development in urban areas and to rural hardcore religious people ask them to vote for hindutva. Lets see how things unfold in coming days but UP is the key that is for sure.

[Sachin=GOD]

Muslims and that too of UP will anyhow are not going to vote for BJP so Modi or no Modi will have no effect on them. BJP has been always winning the urban Lok Sabha seats in UP' date= the 10-12 seat which we see are the main seats of Lucknow, Varanasi, Allahabad, Gorakhpur etc. This time Shah, who is also hailed as a good strategist is targetting the rural areas. I have met the karyakarta of BJP, beleive me with Modi they are very excited and confident of the prospect. And the strategy of one person allocated to one booth is a brilliant concept they have been told to ask people to vote for BJP on the name of development in urban areas and to rural hardcore religious people ask them to vote for hindutva. Lets see how things unfold in coming days but UP is the key that is for sure.

Muslims obviously were not going to vote for the BJP but this time they will vote in larger numbers than usual so as to prevent BJP from winning a large number of seats in UP. Karyakartas are very happy with the prospect of Modi as the leader but common people aren't. Amit Shah will do more damage than good because he just doesn't know the ground realities of UP politics - last month was the first time he came to Lucknow in his entire life :facepalm: and then of course there's the Ram Mandir issue and the Hindutva agenda that he is trying to raise once again - that can backfire massively IMO. Only time will tell what will actually happen but from what I have seen, BJP's prospects do not look so bright in UP as to win such large numbers as predicted by RandomGuy.

[randomGuy]

25 out 26 in Gujarat is something that has never ever happened IIRC and I don't see any reason as to why it will suddenly happen now. In 2004' date=' BJP & Cong won 14 & 12 respectively while in 2009 they won 15 & 11 respectively in Gujrat - how do you see BJP going from 14/15 to 25? Or Cong suddenly going from 11/12 to just 1? Its just unrealistic to expect this.[/quote'] Bjp will be going to election under Modi who is CM of gujrat for over a decade, people will want their man to be the PM hence will give him all the seats Hindutva politics works in UP. Modi n Amit shah will help here. Muslim votes will be divided bet. SP, BSP n Cong. and BJP will benefit from this division. Maybe Lalu has lost his credibility forever n will do only marginally better frm 2009. BJP will contest from all 40 seats this time(won 12 out of 15 in 2009). Anti-incumbency(frm state level) will also work against Nitish. The BJP itself is quite strong there n people may see it(n not nitish) as the only alternative to Congress Raj will support NDA eventually if there's choice between nda n upa.

[randomGuy]

like i said - anti incumbency, corruption, price rise, lack of jobs, weak Cong. leadership, n bjp being the only option available for the people. whichever state bjp has presence in, it will do well

[randomGuy]

this headlines today prediction from may this yr says cong. will get 95, I agree with tht, i do not agree with their BJP tally.

[adi B]

disagree with op regarding states like UP,punjab,TN,rajasthan(bit different),bihar,delhi