Haarkarjeetgaye Posted April 5, 2014 Posted April 5, 2014 Congis are never out until they are out. Especially' date=' with their agents in BJP working relentlessly against Namo...[/quote'] congis have AAP, who will cut votes to make congi win seats
bulbul Posted April 5, 2014 Posted April 5, 2014 Congis are never out until they are out. Especially' date=' with their agents in BJP working relentlessly against Namo...[/quote'] :agree: Now with Secular Imam,Secular Masood leading the charge , i guess Con party will easily end up with 160+ seats :((
Crookbond Posted April 5, 2014 Posted April 5, 2014 Opinion polls are not one bucket - some people who do it the hard way get it right more often than not. During the previous Vidhan Sabha elections, one organisation got it right in all 5 states!
bulbul Posted April 5, 2014 Posted April 5, 2014 Guys no need to worry too much..no one told opinion polls are accurate..i liked graphics so i posted here..i didnt thought people get worried seeing it :((
Precambrian Posted April 5, 2014 Posted April 5, 2014 Opinion polls are not one bucket - some people who do it the hard way get it right more often than not. During the previous Vidhan Sabha elections' date=' one organisation got it right in all 5 states![/quote'] Yes, they all but paint more or less the same picture. Unless all of them have got it wrong.
bulbul Posted April 5, 2014 Posted April 5, 2014 Yes' date=' they all but paint more or less the same picture. Unless all of them have got it wrong.[/quote'] UP tally s bit high..also latest Imam comment will consolidate some votebank's so these polls may ultimately fail.
Crookbond Posted April 5, 2014 Posted April 5, 2014 Yes' date=' they all but paint more or less the same picture. Unless all of them have got it wrong.[/quote'] Nope - there is a variation too. And not all of them have got it wrong. In 2012 as well, there was one organisation who got it spot on in all states. The objective of an opinion poll is to capture trends and not predict seat ratios.
The Outsider Posted April 5, 2014 Posted April 5, 2014 What! An informed discussion on opinion polls is construed as taking solace and worry? The irony! FWIW, Modi being the next PM is pretty certain.
ravishingravi Posted April 5, 2014 Posted April 5, 2014 AAP workers fighting hard to win seats through ICF. I hope channels capture this also on their polls. Impact of keyboard warriors.
Sachin=GOD Posted April 5, 2014 Posted April 5, 2014 What! An informed discussion on opinion polls is construed as taking solace and worry? The irony! FWIW, Modi being the next PM is pretty certain. as they say in cricket, the match is not over until the last ball is bowled.
bulbul Posted April 5, 2014 Posted April 5, 2014 as they say in cricket' date=' the match is not over until the last ball is bowled.[/quote'] Sadly for you, this is not cricket :((
Sachin=GOD Posted April 5, 2014 Posted April 5, 2014 Sadly for you' date=' this is not cricket :(([/quote'] I'm just looking at the potential result rationally. Lets say the opinion polls are within the ballpark and BJP really is winning around 190 seats on its own - in such a situation all it would take is a shift of around 10-15 seats away from the BJP (it doesn't matter as to which party these seats go to because no other party will come close to BJP) and Modi will suddenly start looking unacceptable as PM. And believe me, a shift of 10-15 seats in the last few days is not a big matter at all in National Elections, especially when the likes of Amit Shah give such speeches as he gave 2 days ago.
bulbul Posted April 5, 2014 Posted April 5, 2014 I'm just looking at the potential result rationally. Lets say the opinion polls are within the ballpark and BJP really is winning around 190 seats on its own - in such a situation all it would take is a shift of around 10-15 seats away from the BJP (it doesn't matter as to which party these seats go to because no other party will come close to BJP) and Modi will suddenly start looking unacceptable as PM. And believe me, a shift of 10-15 seats in the last few days is not a big matter at all in National Elections, especially when the likes of Amit Shah give such speeches as he gave 2 days ago. Do you think Amma won't support Modi? Getting 10/15 is really not big deal. What matters is how Much BJP will get.
Sachin=GOD Posted April 5, 2014 Posted April 5, 2014 Do you think Amma won't support Modi? Getting 10/15 is really not big deal. What matters is how Much BJP will get. IMO Amma will support ONLY if BJP gets atleast 180-185. And even then BJP will need one of Maya and Mamta to have a comfortable majority. Getting 10-15 is no big deal - its losing 10-15 in the last few days (which is very much possible) which can be a very big deal for Modi.
bulbul Posted April 5, 2014 Posted April 5, 2014 IMO Amma will support ONLY if BJP gets atleast 180-185. And even then BJP will need one of Maya and Mamta to have a comfortable majority. Getting 10-15 is no big deal - its losing 10-15 in the last few days (which is very much possible) which can be a very big deal for Modi. 10/15 Will not matter...but for stability BJP must cross 200. ps : BJP can take AAP support for 10/15 seats :winky:
Sachin=GOD Posted April 5, 2014 Posted April 5, 2014 10/15 Will not matter...but for stability BJP must cross 200. ps : BJP can take AAP support for 10/15 seats :winky: Of course they must cross 200 for stability - thats why I'm saying that the election is not by any means a done deal because a few seats here and there and Modi's candidature will become unacceptable. Modi bhakts are behaving as if he has already become the PM and its only a matter of the oath taking ceremony after May 16th :cantstop: you think AAP is winning that many :giggle: I would be very surprised if they cross 5 (at best).
bulbul Posted April 5, 2014 Posted April 5, 2014 Of course they must cross 200 for stability - thats why I'm saying that the election is not by any means a done deal because a few seats here and there and Modi's candidature will become unacceptable. Modi bhakts are behaving as if he has already become the PM and its only a matter of the oath taking ceremony after May 16th :cantstop: you think AAP is winning that many :giggle: I would be very surprised if they cross 5 (at best). For the sake of its supporters in ground, I don't have problem if they win 10/15 ps : supporters I mean ground supporters. Not ICF warriors :winky:
bulbul Posted April 5, 2014 Posted April 5, 2014 S!=G, I still feel con party will sneak in more seats than what opinion polls showing.
Sachin=GOD Posted April 5, 2014 Posted April 5, 2014 S!=G' date=' I still feel con party will sneak in more seats than what opinion polls showing.[/quote'] same here.
randomGuy Posted April 5, 2014 Posted April 5, 2014 AAP workers fighting hard to win seats through ICF. I hope channels capture this also on their polls. Impact of keyboard warriors. I get your point. ..padhe likhe ghodu modi bhakt on the internet are too dheeth and hard to influence.
Recommended Posts