Texan Posted March 9, 2014 Posted March 9, 2014 Third Front is falling apart even before it started. AIADMK is already out. BJD has not shown any interest, AGP is in talks with BJP. Third Front is a motley of people who have no appeal beyond their state but think they are best suited to be prime ministers.
sachin34357 Posted March 9, 2014 Author Posted March 9, 2014 Third Front is falling apart even before it started. AIADMK is already out. BJD has not shown any interest, AGP is in talks with BJP. Third Front is a motley of people who have no appeal beyond their state but think they are best suited to be prime ministers. but if there is a hint of power then they could all unite depending on the results
sachin34357 Posted March 9, 2014 Author Posted March 9, 2014 what do you think voter turnout would be if we have re-election due to no party willing to form government
ravishingravi Posted March 9, 2014 Posted March 9, 2014 Hopefully we ll get great speeches like this http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=r1bUnC4-65g
Sachin=GOD Posted March 9, 2014 Posted March 9, 2014 Hopefully we ll get great speeches like this http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=r1bUnC4-65g if only he was alive :(
ravishingravi Posted March 9, 2014 Posted March 9, 2014 if only he was alive :( Yeah. That whole speech was right up there with the best I have seen.
sachin34357 Posted March 9, 2014 Author Posted March 9, 2014 Hopefully we ll get great speeches like this http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=r1bUnC4-65g rofl:hysterical:
Sachin=GOD Posted March 9, 2014 Posted March 9, 2014 Yeah. That whole speech was right up there with the best I have seen. yeah. But not only his speeches but more importantly his strategic acumen is being missed by BJP here, especially in dealing with nuisance like AAP.
ravishingravi Posted March 9, 2014 Posted March 9, 2014 yeah. But not only his speeches but more importantly his strategic acumen is being missed by BJP here' date=' especially in dealing with nuisance like AAP.[/quote'] Yes. Although, tbh, he was deep into depression after India Shining campaign failed. He wouldn't have been the same.
ravishingravi Posted March 9, 2014 Posted March 9, 2014 http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xsZrV_9hZJk Whole speech for those interested. OP, that scenario looks unlikely. If it happens, we ll go for re election and BJP will have complete majority if that happens. Not because they are acceptable, but people will want a stable govt.
Sachin=GOD Posted March 9, 2014 Posted March 9, 2014 Yes. Although' date=' tbh, he was deep into depression after India Shining campaign failed. He wouldn't have been the same.[/quote'] At that time the whole party was in depression but most of them recovered well enough. He could have been useful here.
ravishingravi Posted March 9, 2014 Posted March 9, 2014 At that time the whole party was in depression but most of them recovered well enough. He could have been useful here. Well iirc, he had been almost solely blamed for the campaign choices. I thought that was unfair. Actually, at the time I thought I have not seen a campaign is powerful. Till it failed.
Sachin=GOD Posted March 9, 2014 Posted March 9, 2014 Well iirc' date=' he had been almost solely blamed for the campaign choices. I thought that was unfair. Actually, at the time I thought I have not seen a campaign is powerful. Till it failed.[/quote'] IIRC after his death Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley etc did say that the campaign was certainly not his idea alone and was a collective decision but at the time of the elections somehow everybody got the impression that only Mahajan was responsible for India Shining. And yes, I also think that it was a brilliant campaign but sadly the people of India disagreed.
adi B Posted March 9, 2014 Posted March 9, 2014 it'll only form if cong get 130-140 seats and give them outside support..hopefully this never happens
Texan Posted March 9, 2014 Posted March 9, 2014 In light of what happened in the next 10 years, people of India sure realized in retrospect that India was indeed shining in 2004.
gs Posted March 10, 2014 Posted March 10, 2014 India was absolutely shining in 2004, and would have progressed further with 10 more years of NDA. Instead we had the UPA imbeciles in power who undid all the good work.
RedFever Posted March 10, 2014 Posted March 10, 2014 India was absolutely shining in 2004' date=' and would have progressed further with 10 more years of NDA. Instead we had the UPA imbeciles in power who undid all the good work.[/quote'] paid media worked overtime to ensure NDA was defeated. If only we had social media that time..
scorpio90 Posted March 10, 2014 Posted March 10, 2014 A random source: If you recall, around march of 2009, many thought if emergency will be declared becos they thought congress wil lose and will just go to the bins of history. This party has an uncanny nack of pulling victory from the jaws of defeat. In this election, if BJP dips to 170 and congress manages 120, I will call that a congress victory. Becos at 170, BJP cant form govt, cong will prop up kejri as PM with support of other parties. Now, are we all sure BJP will cross 170, I am not even 50% sure about that. Roughly speaking Divide BJP's prospects into 3 regions, West + Union Territories (MP, CH, RJ, GJ, MH, Goa and UT's); UP & Bihar, Rest of India(JK, HP, UTT, Haryana, DEL, JH, Assam, KA, other states where BJP is a zero). To hit 200 seats, BJP desperately needs to hit at least 95 in the 1st segment, 55 in UP and Bihar and 50 in the rest of India. If you see carefully, Congress has a card in each of the regions to dent BJP by 5-10 seats at a minimum. In the western area, Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh are their targets. If they can cut BJP to size in MH (which is their weakest state in that entire region) using MNS (they guy has announced that he will contest and smartly supported Modi to ensure that his voters are even more confused whether to vote BJP/SS or MNS). I am sure congress is capable of pulling BJP down from 17-18 projected in MH to 14. Gadkari and Munde are fighting down to the micro level on whether Pune seat should go to Anil Shirole or Girish Bapat. Chhattisgarh as much as we all love to fancy, is not in the Modi wave zone at all. It is a remote state with its own dynamics. Last time BJP swept it. This time in the assembly polls, they just barely scraped through. They will find it extremely hard to retain that number. So there you go, in the western zone, if you factor in these 2 states, to hit 95, BJP needs land slides in RJ, GJ, MP to propel them to the 95 number. 50 in the rest of India is a big ask too. If you look carefully, the biggest contributors to the ROI (rest of India) for BJP are JH and KA. The damage in KA has been done 2 years ago itself. Anyway BJP has somehow crawled back into the scene. But still can they go beyond 12-13 in KA or will they go down to 10 based on local factors remains to be seen. See JH also, the state is reeling under a Modi wave, but JVM has put up a smart cand in Ranchi and now BJP is struggling. 2 more seats like that, the projected 11/14 becomes 8/14. One state they can count on is UTT (they will win worst case 4/5). If you look at Himachal, its not that easy, BJP did well last time and the candidates this time may have a hard time pulling it off. I wont be surprised if only Anurag Thakur pulls it off. The only reason BJP is projected to do well in Haryana is the AAP factor which is splitting the congress vote down the center. But I am sure, cong goons will force AAP to backoff in the last minute. This ROI is BJP's weakest region overall. If congress plays it well, BJP may not even scrape through with 30 seats in this entire region. Delhi will still vote AAP even if some of its voters may back Namo. The game is that all the Muslim voters of congress will vote AAP in Delhi and that is enough for them to produce an awesome result. So with these 2 regions if congress can cut BJP to size at 90+30 = 120 seats. BJP needs a whopping 80 seats in UP & Bihar to hit 200 and 60 seats even to hit 180. Of the 30 they will contest in Bihar, they may pull off 20-22. So they need a minimum of 38 seats in UP to even hit 180. I am not expecting a single seat in WB, Orissa, TN, AP, Kerala. It is very easy to get excited by seeing crowds at Namo rally and predict 4 seats in Orissa. But that is just unwarranted optimism. I see congress being able to stop BJP at 160 seats itself. BJP is banking on UP to a big extent to pull themselves out of this hole.
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