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surajmal

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Mission Kashmir: Amit Shah wants to install BJP CM SHAH'S FOUR-PRONGED MISSION KASHMIR Consolidate gains registered in Lok Sabha elections in Jammu and Ladakh regions. Massive enrolment campaign of all eligible Kashmiri Pandits. Break away popular leaders who're disgruntled with other parties. Tactical understanding with regional players. CONSOLIDATING LOK SABHA GAINS In the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections, the BJP led in 30 of the 37 Assembly segments in Jammu and three of the four seats in Ladakh. Shah's first aim is to ensure that the BJP wins as many as possible of the 41 seats of the Jammu and Ladakh region. In the last Assembly elections held in 2008, the BJP had won only 11 of the 37 seats in the Jammu region, and none of the 46 seats in the Kashmir Valley or the 4 seats of Ladakh. But the recent Lok Sabha results have given reason for cheer. If the BJP is able to replicate it's Lok Sabha performance in the Assembly Elections, the party will end up with a substantial 33 seats in the 88 seat Assembly and most likely emerge as the single largest party in the case of a fractured mandate. But the BJP is not relying only on Jammu and Ladakh. Shah's aspires to make dent in the Kashmir Valley as well. ENROLLMENT CAMPAIGN OF KASHMIRI PANDITS Before they were hounded out of the valley in the early nineties, there were 2.5 lakh registered Kashmiri Pandit voters who were numerically significant in at least 8 of the 46 seats of the Kashmir Valley. BJP leaders and RSS workers have embarked on a massive enrolment campaign to get Kashmiri Pandits to vote from no matter where they are settled in the country. Door to door enrolment is being currently carried out in Jammu, Delhi, Noida, Ghaziabad, and pockets of Punjab that have heavy concentration of the Pandit community. Moti Kaul explains the rationale behind the strategy to enrol Pandits. "We estimate that there are currently roughly 4 lakh eligible Kashmiri Pandit voters settled across the country. But out of these only one lakh twenty six thousand are registered voters. We are going all out to enrol the remaining and have made significant progress despite the state government creating all sorts of obstacles. We hope to get at least 30,000 new voters registered in time for the Assembly elections." BREAKING AWAY DISGRUNTLED LEADERS The BJP leadership is in touch with several prominent leaders who have a strong support base and are unhappy in their present parties. In the past few weeks many senior state level leaders have been already been inducted into the party. These include PDP leader Taj Mohammad Khan; PDP Youth Wing State General Secretary Showkat Javed Daing; former NC Senior leader from Rajouri, Choudhary Talib Hussain; Dr. Hina Bhat, daughter of former NC leader Muhammad, Shafi Bhat; former Jammu and Kashmir Inspector General of Police (IGP) Farooq Khan and Satinder Singh Bijral and also two time MLA of the Jammu State Morcha (JSM) Ashwani Sharma. The strategy of giving tickets to prominent rebels worked well for the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections and now Amit Shah is hoping that these new recruits can deliver a seat each in their pocket of influence. TYING UP WITH REGIONAL PLAYERS To boost its post poll position the BJP is also looking at forging different kinds of tactical understanding with some of the smaller regional players in the state. Seat sharing talks are on with the Panther's Party of Dr Bhim Singh. BJP leaders are also in touch with the Imam Khomeini Memorial Trust, which has pockets of influence in Ladakh. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Khomeini Trust performed exceedingly well in Kargil and Zanskar. The trust's candidate lost to BJP's Thupstan Chhewang on the Leh seat by a paltry margin of 36 votes. The BJP also hopes to strengthen and indirectly benefit from the performance of the Awami Ittehad Party of Engineer Sheikh Abdur Rashid and Sajjad Lone's Jammu and Kashmir People's Conference. Set up in June 2013, the Awami Ittehad Party won more than 20,000 votes in the Lok Sabha elections in the Baramulla and Anantnag seats. Former separatist Sajjad Lone's party is emerging as a force to reckon with and is slated to do well on at least five seats in the Valley. The better the Ittehad and People's Conference do, the more they are likely to damage the prospects of Mehbooba Mufti's PDP and Omar Abdullah's National Conference. While the BJP is yet to officially kick off its campaign in J&K, alarm bells are already ringing in other political parties who fear that the BJP's tactics will end up further polarising the electorate in the state. Devendar Rana of the National Conference, who is also the Political Advisor to Jammu and Kashmir CM Omar Abdullah, told the India Today Group, 'In a democracy the will of the people shall prevail. Jammu and Kashmir is not Uttar Pradesh. I just hope that politics of polarisation is not played in Jammu and Kashmir because that could lead to a catastrophe. Devendar's colleague and National Conference Spokesperson Tanvir Sadiq added, 'Abrogation of Article 370 is the lightning rod with which the BJP is trying to polarize the Jammu region. The BJP is trying to drive a wedge in the state for mere electoral gains. The danger here is that the state's various fault lines may come out in the open and the many regions that comprise the state be at cross purposes.' While PDP Spokesperson Dr Sameer Kaul said, 'Electorally what the BJP is trying to is impossible to achieve. J&K is a Muslim majority state. This attempt is polarising and divisive. It will only lead to disruption and disorder.' Even independent experts are concerned about the impact of BJP's Mission Kashmir will have on the social fabric of the state. Renowned Kashmiri academic and political historian Siddiq Wahid said, 'A lot will depend on the kind of campaign that the BJP will run. J&K politics is a lot more complex than the BJP thinks. If the BJP campaign ends up polarising communities in the state it can be very damaging for the social fabric of the state.'
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/amit-shah-mission-kashmir-bjp-president-bjp-cm-jammu-kashmir/1/378073.html Imagine the possibilities with a BJP govt. in the state... Article 370 is the least of it.
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G_B_ Community Regular

G_B_

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I doubt BJP will form government outright over there. But i think will be part of a coalition government. Omar Abdullah is a slippery mothertrucker. He will be first in hand to form government with the BJP if that keeps him in power.

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G_B_ Community Regular

G_B_

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Big bypoll in bihar today if the bjp win most of the seats then i can see major defections from nitish and lalu worry for the BJP is will people turn out in large numbers? Yadav voters especially have a record of voting in every elections.

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Sachin=GOD Newbie

Sachin=GOD

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Big bypoll in bihar today if the bjp win most of the seats then i can see major defections from nitish and lalu worry for the BJP is will people turn out in large numbers? Yadav voters especially have a record of voting in every elections.
Yup. BJP does look set to win around 7-8 of these.
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G_B_ Community Regular

G_B_

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are people in the rally going mood? I personally dont trust these twitter accounts. I think the person you are referring too Mr Patil does have a good record. But i am still not sure. BJP should be happy with 6. Jd(u)-Lalu-Congress did have more % votes combined in the lok sabha. While there is a good chance that not all votes are transferrable, its still a big block.

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someone Community Regular

someone

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Big bypoll in bihar today
Disagree, this bypolls hype is very much media creation. It simply doesn't matter, any results from these bypoll won't change the government firstly. And given the low turnout, even the public don't necessary care about it or have shown no importance to this bypolls. It would be stupid to judge too many things based on such small and inaccurate sample.
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G_B_ Community Regular

G_B_

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Disagree' date=' this bypolls hype is very much media creation. It simply doesn't matter, any results from these bypoll won't change the government firstly. And given the low turnout, even the public don't necessary care about it or have shown no importance to this bypolls. It would be stupid to judge too many things based on such small and inaccurate sample.[/quote'] disagree in a place like bihar if BJP sweep the bypolls it make cause enough defections in the ranks of Jd(U) especially. Enough to topple the government. rest of the places its pretty useless to be honest.
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someone

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disagree in a place like bihar if BJP sweep the bypolls it make cause enough defections in the ranks of Jd(U) especially. Enough to topple the government. rest of the places its pretty useless to be honest.
I don't agree. Even if this unholy alliance does well, it's all short lived and none of it would matter long term. Similar, if this alliance does poorly, they will still all be together just to be in power at state level. All of those 3 parties are fundamentally selfish and really a alliance of the corrupt and Jungle Raj II. They will all stay together as survival is their only objective till the next elections.
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Sachin=GOD Newbie

Sachin=GOD

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Disagree' date=' this bypolls hype is very much media creation. It simply doesn't matter, any results from these bypoll won't change the government firstly. And given the low turnout, even the public don't necessary care about it or have shown no importance to this bypolls. It would be stupid to judge too many things based on such small and inaccurate sample.[/quote'] Disagree. These are very important - more so for the BJP. As G_B said, if BJP wins big here then there would be many defections from RJD/JDU in the next few weeks/months. On the other hand if RJD/JDU do well then they would get a much needed confidence boost and an indication that their alliance, however desperate it may be, is working.
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G_B_ Community Regular

G_B_

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by my estimate close to 40 JD(u) MLAs are sitting on the fence at the moment. BJP sweeps these seats then its the end of them there will be a lot of jumping happening. I wonder if the elections will be called along with maha etc.

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Sachin=GOD Newbie

Sachin=GOD

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by my estimate close to 40 JD(u) MLAs are sitting on the fence at the moment. BJP sweeps these seats then its the end of them there will be a lot of jumping happening. I wonder if the elections will be called along with maha etc.
Bypolls 12 seats in UP are also happening next month. If, as expected, BJP wins big then I think quite a few SP MLAs are also ready to defect or at least they will do so ahead of the next elections in 2017.
Honestly there isn't a better time for BJP to push for polls in Delhi' date= Kejri is close to down and out, Congress is destroyed more or less.
Agreed. In fact they should have called for polls in Delhi immediately after forming the Govt and they also shouldn't have made Dr. Harshvardhan a Minister, instead they should have made him the CM candidate.
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