G_B_ Posted February 1, 2015 Posted February 1, 2015 NDA already has requisite nos in case of a JS.Isnt it? yes they do. With the TDP. Without the TDP and their 22 they dont. If they ditch the TDP for the TRS (who have 12) there is a deficit of 10. which is why these TRS rumours dont make any sense. Unless the BJP wants to partner the TRS in Telangana and the TDP in other part. That would be a big tightrope to walk. Both the TRS and the TDP want the centre to infuse big funds into their states which allows them populist measures such as writing off farmer debts etc. TDP especially want to build a capital to rival Hyderabad in Vizag/Vijaywada. Politically neither the TRS not the TDP need the BJP atm in terms of numbers in parliament. Chandrababu Naudu especially knows how hard it was for him to come back when the Congress rolled out populist schemes for the farmers 2004-2014. It came close to finishing him off politically.
G_B_ Posted February 2, 2015 Posted February 2, 2015 Expelled BSP leader Dara Singh Chauhan joins BJP http://zeenews.india.com/news/delhi/expelled-bsp-leader-dara-singh-chauhan-joins-bjp_1540479.html BSP is in freefall in UP to an outsider. Most of them are joining the BJP. S=G can shed more light but will inducting BSP leaders help the BJP? UP BJP banks on SC and OBC leaders imported from other parties http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/bjp-uttar-pradesh-assembly-polls-2017-amit-shah-jugul-kishore-dara-singh-chauhan-ramshankar-rajbhar/1/416445.html Looks like Shah is widening UP BJP's social base before 2017.
Sachin=GOD Posted February 2, 2015 Posted February 2, 2015 Expelled BSP leader Dara Singh Chauhan joins BJP http://zeenews.india.com/news/delhi/expelled-bsp-leader-dara-singh-chauhan-joins-bjp_1540479.html BSP is in freefall in UP to an outsider. Most of them are joining the BJP. S=G can shed more light but will inducting BSP leaders help the BJP? UP BJP banks on SC and OBC leaders imported from other parties http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/bjp-uttar-pradesh-assembly-polls-2017-amit-shah-jugul-kishore-dara-singh-chauhan-ramshankar-rajbhar/1/416445.html Looks like Shah is widening UP BJP's social base before 2017. BJP used 2-3 big SC/OBC leaders from UP - Kalyan Singh, who is now Governor of Rajasthan, Vinay Katiyar, who has now been marginalized and Uma Bharti, who was from MP so she was never really effective in UP. Thus they did need some SC/OBC leaders having some base and IMO these ones from BSP will do the job well because they are quite experienced and have a good hold on their community's votes. If all the names in this article join BJP then it will be a boost to the party in UP BUT they will have to take the state unit into confidence (putting in outsiders without talking to the state leadership can have negative efects as seen in Delhi with Kiran bedi). Also, in UP BJP there has been a leadership void since the senior leaders (ones who were behind the party's success in the 90s) had become too old so right now a LOT of the younger leaders have been given various responsibilities - this I guess is being done to test potential CM candidates for 2017.
G_B_ Posted February 2, 2015 Posted February 2, 2015 ^ what are the odds of the Congress forming an alliance with either the SP or the BSP. It seems the RLD is going to break from the congress and side with the BSP based on recent MLC elections.
Sachin=GOD Posted February 2, 2015 Posted February 2, 2015 ^ what are the odds of the Congress forming an alliance with either the SP or the BSP. It seems the RLD is going to break from the congress and side with the BSP based on recent MLC elections. Congress is almost zero in UP right now. Their leadership is completely ineffective, Rahul Gandhi has failed in UP multiple times and with the party out of power at the center, the state leaders dont even have any incentive to work now. Right now SP is riding high on winning 8 out of 11 seats in by-elections last year so they might not want to share seats with such a weak party like Cong. Also, they have gone for the Janata Parivar experiment - it'll be clear by the end of Bihar elections as to how that goes. BSP on the other hand is really imploding - Mayawati's tactics to just make as much money as possible when in power is finally ruining her party as leaders who have given lots and lots of money can no longer get any reward since not only is she not in power but she also isn't exactly in the good graces of BJP (unlike the last UPA Govt which still wasn't so opposed to BSP). RLD is finished. There is literally no big leader left apart from father-son who own the party. Their influence among Jats also suffered massively after the riots last year. And since Ajit Singh has no loyalties he can join ANYBODY - though the effect will be marginal at best.
G_B_ Posted February 2, 2015 Posted February 2, 2015 the way i see it, based on your comments 35% of the vote for the BJP+Anpa Dal will be enough to get an outright majority of the BJP in 2017.
G_B_ Posted February 3, 2015 Posted February 3, 2015 BJP Bihar needs to prepare for early polls. Reports are out that Jd(u) will call for early polls if AAP win in Delhi. Nitish does not get on with Manjhi and Jd(u) will fight with RJD rather than a merger. BJP Bihar needs to be in full swing for early elections as odds are AAP will win.
bulbul Posted February 3, 2015 Posted February 3, 2015 BJP Bihar needs to prepare for early polls. Reports are out that Jd(u) will call for early polls if AAP win in Delhi. Nitish does not get on with Manjhi and Jd(u) will fight with RJD rather than a merger. BJP Bihar needs to be in full swing for early elections as odds are AAP will win. Uma Bharthi praised Manjhi. No attack from Amith shah against him while attacking Nithish.
jalebi_bhai Posted February 3, 2015 Posted February 3, 2015 Is the vision document out in English? I can read Hindi, but right now I'm in a bit of a hurry.
G_B_ Posted February 3, 2015 Posted February 3, 2015 Uma Bharthi praised Manjhi. No attack from Amith shah against him while attacking Nithish. You look at how Kejriwal has made the campaign all about him (its good strategy). Maybe the BJP needs to project a candidate like SuMo. Make the election about him. S=G Sunny someone (the posters) whats your opinion? Last time we chatted i do believe all three of you favoured the joint leadership strategy.
Sachin=GOD Posted February 3, 2015 Posted February 3, 2015 You look at how Kejriwal has made the campaign all about him (its good strategy). Maybe the BJP needs to project a candidate like SuMo. Make the election about him. S=G Sunny someone (the posters) whats your opinion? Last time we chatted i do believe all three of you favoured the joint leadership strategy. Sushil Modi will probably be the candidate. He was the Deputy CM and IIRC he is still the leader of the legislative party. Also, if they did not have plans for him in Bihar he would have been a central minister by now - he is quite capable. Though I won't be surprised if they go without a leader but unofficially announce Sushil Modi. Other than him the Bihar leaders are Shanawaz Hussain, Rudy, Shatrughan Sinha etc - none of them seem to be CM materiel right now or even capable of being joint leaders.
Sachin=GOD Posted February 3, 2015 Posted February 3, 2015 BTW here's an interesting (and worrying for the BJP) article: In this term, Narendra Modi govt will never have the numbers in Rajya Sabha Between now and 2019, when the Modi government’s term ends, the NDA will just about cross the 100-seat mark in the House — and that’s in the best-case scenario. That will leave it well short of the halfway point in the Rajya Sabha, which has an optimum strength of 250. The Congress may lose at least 20-odd seats by 2019 and its fellow travellers such as the JD(U), Left parties and others another half-a-dozen. But the Opposition is likely to still be neck-and-neck with the NDA in the House in May 2019, when the Modi government’s tenure ends. http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/in-this-term-modi-govt-will-never-have-the-numbers-in-rajya-sabha/99/
jalebi_bhai Posted February 3, 2015 Posted February 3, 2015 BTW here's an interesting (and worrying for the BJP) article: In this term, Narendra Modi govt will never have the numbers in Rajya Sabha http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/in-this-term-modi-govt-will-never-have-the-numbers-in-rajya-sabha/99/ So constitutional amendments like UCC and removal of Article 370 won't be easy to carry out. :((
Desi Cartman Posted February 3, 2015 Posted February 3, 2015 So constitutional amendments like UCC and removal of Article 370 won't be easy to carry out. :(( I thought after (or just before) the last J&K election, this was not even on the agenda.
G_B_ Posted February 4, 2015 Posted February 4, 2015 BTW here's an interesting (and worrying for the BJP) article: In this term, Narendra Modi govt will never have the numbers in Rajya Sabha http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/in-this-term-modi-govt-will-never-have-the-numbers-in-rajya-sabha/99/ Thats a very simplistic article. It does not account for multiple factors, (a) Some nominated members in the RS are just not going to vote for stuff and be absent aka Sachin Tendulkar and Rekha. You think if the BJP calls a joint session on say coal allocation etc Tendulkar is going to turn upto vote? A lot of nominated members just dont want the heat. (b) People in Rajya Sabha can defect. Birender Singh defected from the Congress to the BJP and contested on a BJP ticket and is now a minister in the government. Result was the BJP picked up a seat out of no where. The entire Andhra Pradesh Rajya sabha contingent of the Congress is unsafe. There are already rumours Chiranjeevi is looking to join the BJP or quit politics all together. He has not been seen at Congress functions for a while now. If i am a congress Rajya sabha member from say Maharashtra i am looking over my shoulder. If and i stress the if looking at the BJP in Delhi now, the BJP has a strong showing in Bihar. I will not rule out people on Jd(u) rajya sabha seats resigning to be part of the Bihar government. © People die. Murali Deora died and the BJP is set to pick up his seat in Mahashtra. The congress has a lot of people who are really old. Motilal Vora comes to mind. Any deaths of Rajya sabha members in the BJP rules states will be picked up by the BJP (d) NDA itself might expand. Looks like the PDP and the BJP might join hands. Potentially depending on how the election goes in Kashmir thats 3 seats in the bag for NDA a 4th might need some management. PDP i feel will vote with the NDA or at the very least abstain on economic issues. The point is things can change rapidly. I expect NDA (excluding PDP) to reach about 85-90 by the time the general election comes by. They can play ball with 14 AIADMK and 7 BJD + 12 nominated + independents and neutral parties. (TRS etc) On social issues the BJP does not have the numbers till Modi's term ends. On economic issues they might just have the numbers. The BJD for example has said they will support the insurance bill. The BJP should call a joint session soon. They have the numbers and insurance (can do a deal with Pawar for the BCCI gig (they will abstain getting 12 seats TRS 12 and Jagan 9). It will flush out a lot of people who abstain or want to rebel. As i said before the entire Congress Andhra PRadesh contingent i expect a few defections ditto Jd(u) and people like Dinesh Tivedi from the TMC etc. In a joint session getting people to abstain might just be the way forward for the BJP.
G_B_ Posted February 4, 2015 Posted February 4, 2015 and i do hope the BJP does call a joint session. A lot of skeletons are going to come out of the congress closet in the rajya sabha and even lok sabha members. A series of congress people abstaining, not turning up for some lame reason (unwell) if not voting outright for the NDA will send a very public message to those on the fence about quitting or staying with the party. Its worth a try, if 5-6 members of the parliamentary congress abstain it will send a strong message to the congress. Dont oppose the BJP's economic agenda. A joint session will only show how weak you are to everybody. If i was the congress high command i would do everything to avoid a joint session. From a political POV the land acquisition bill i would block. But i would have allowed the insurance bill to go through. Similarly i would be more than happy to play ball on the GST. It will highlight to the middle classes that the Congress are serious on the economy. If you oppose all of the BJP economic reforms i am afraid you will be blown away in a joint session. On social issues ofcourse i would block a POTA type act. I would play ball on women reservation. Not that it matters in the lok sabha. BJP can pass it single handed. But i would play ball in the legislatures of the states i control (9)
The Outsider Posted February 4, 2015 Posted February 4, 2015 Constitutional amendments cannot be passed through a joint session.
jalebi_bhai Posted February 4, 2015 Posted February 4, 2015 I thought after (or just before) the last J&K election' date=' this was not even on the agenda.[/quote'] Momentarily kept aside.
Precambrian Posted February 4, 2015 Posted February 4, 2015 ain't it a fantastic thing? RS acting as a checkpoint to absolute majority in LS? I love the Indian system for this.
asterix Posted February 4, 2015 Posted February 4, 2015 ain't it a fantastic thing? RS acting as a checkpoint to absolute majority in LS? I love the Indian system for this. RS is actually the last post standing against the barbaric invaders of Middle Earth...
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