G_B_ Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 well amit shah has been vindicated in this battle.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
someone Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Well, i have to admit I was wrong as well, though SS-BJP break-up was incorrect. But if those exit polls are to the results, Amit Shah is one smart strategist. BJP gains in short and long term. Breaks myths about BJP and a lesson for SS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 we need to see and wait how this pans out long term. specially the % breakdown if the sena mns and ncp combine for the next election both the congress and bjp might be done. But as of now credit to shah. lets see if they offer the sena a olive branch in terms of ministers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
someone Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Why worry about 5 years later now? If anything, NCP/MNS/SS would face plenty of infighting within and have to deal with that firstly. After all, there is the lure of power while the defeat will start the blame game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adi B Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Chankya for MH BJP: 151 SS: 71 INC: 27 NC: 28 MNS: 11 the chanakya numbers makes sense I am hearing the BJP might win 55 out of 62 seats in Viderbha and have made heavy inroads in Western maha. Nitin Waghale is of that opinion. The sena numbers of 71 reflect they have done well in mumbai looks like it.the ground reports from viderbha states that bjp will cross 50+.sena will do well in mumbai and looks like they'll get 25-27 seats,bjp second with 15-18. its good that the voter turnout was relatively high at 64%,increases bjp's chances to sweep high number of seats in their stronghold. still believe cong will get more or less around 30 seats,same with ncp,maybe even 25.SS will be a big gainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surajmal Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 we need to see and wait how this pans out long term. specially the % breakdown if the sena mns and ncp combine for the next election both the congress and bjp might be done. But as of now credit to shah. lets see if they offer the sena a olive branch in terms of ministers. In 2009, many in haryana voted for congress because they feared if INLD came to power, it would suspend all (however little in number) the infra projects that had been initiated. The Joke was that Chautala won't even fill up the ditches that have been dug. BJP can ensure its reelection by starting work on the Jaitapur nuclear plant. 10000 MW - will cost in the neighbourhood of 10-15 billion USD. Just that alone will be sufficient, if we are talking about purely politics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malcolm Merlyn Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Chanakya overestimating BJP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 we need to see and wait how this pans out long term. specially the % breakdown if the sena mns and ncp combine for the next election both the congress and bjp might be done. But as of now credit to shah. lets see if they offer the sena a olive branch in terms of ministers. Doesn't seem likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sticky wicket Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 So we could have scenario BJP with majority and the rest totally dominated by Sena, Maha has too been saffronised! Congress turning into a joke party now. Also what implications will this have on Rajya Sabha seats if BJP get majorities in Maha / Har ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 Why worry about 5 years later now? If anything' date=' NCP/MNS/SS would face plenty of infighting within and have to deal with that firstly. After all, there is the lure of power while the defeat will start the blame game.[/quote'] i doubt it. NCP is run on the money generated from Pune metro area + sugar co ops Sena rely on the BMC and they are in power in places such as Aurangabad Thane etc. + they have the unions. MSN Nashik + Unions This is probably set Maharashtra regional parties aside from other states. They have mechanisms whereby they can sustain themselves regardless of who is in the state. The shiv sena for example earns about $200 million a year from the BMC + unions + real estate deals. Modi wave aside the sena can outspent the BJP in the state. I say this again, the true strength of the sena power is the BMC. It is a goldmine. Lets not beat about the bush. Modi has lifted BJP maha to power. Take out one man and the sena would be at the top. Maharashtra remains a well governed state by Indian standards. There is not much improvement which can be done in terms of governance in 5 years. Thats the entire point of an alliance. It has ups and it has downs. The BJP need to play their cards correctly. The sena combine with the NCP and even in this election they are both together getting more votes thanthe BJP. As a BJP supporter its better to ensure that one of the regional parties is on your side. The BJP cannot ally with the Congress. The others can ally with anybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vayuu1 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 If bjp wins both states then bjp will have rule over 11 states as compared to 10 congress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackMamba Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 ReZult kab aane wala hai ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gattaca Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 If bjp wins both states then bjp will have rule over 12 states as compared to 10 congress. lol Rahul baba made a statement regarding BJp that it was not a national party as it was ruling only two or three states time for pay back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 In 2009, many in haryana voted for congress because they feared if INLD came to power, it would suspend all (however little in number) the infra projects that had been initiated. The Joke was that Chautala won't even fill up the ditches that have been dug. BJP can ensure its reelection by starting work on the Jaitapur nuclear plant. 10000 MW - will cost in the neighbourhood of 10-15 billion USD. Just that alone will be sufficient, if we are talking about purely politics. and there in lay the rub. That project is going to take a long time to complete. Nuclear power stations especially are time consuming and need a large fixed cost upfront. No doubt the BJP should start infra projects. But it wont be complete come next election. Lets not forget the BJP with the Modi wave are just over the line in Maha. With about 30-35% of the vote. ITs going to be hard to sustain that. Make peace with the sena. Otherwise you open yourself up tie ups. The sena are not going to simply sit up. It may not have to be the CM chair or major positions. But you can give them for eg 3-4 govornerships and some junior ministers in cabinet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 If bjp wins both states then bjp will have rule over 12 states as compared to 10 congress. The number of states is a moot point as well. Akilesh Yadav rules over more people than and entire congress controlled states combined. Half of the congress run states are really small north east states. I can say hand on heart, municipal elections in delhi mumbai etc are way more important Also after the SAD campaigned for the INLD in Haryana i feel BJP will snap ties in Punjab Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cowboysfan Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 These elections is more about the dire straits of the present congress party than about Modi, as long as they hang onto the toxic Gandhis then the will suffer similar fates is other congress controlled states,i wont be surprised if they lose karnataka too even though the congress govt there has not done badly at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
someone Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Lets not beat about the bush. Modi has lifted BJP maha to power. Take out one man and the sena would be at the top. Maharashtra remains a well governed state by Indian standards. There is not much improvement which can be done in terms of governance in 5 years. Thats the entire point of an alliance. It has ups and it has downs. The BJP need to play their cards correctly. The sena combine with the NCP and even in this election they are both together getting more votes thanthe BJP. As a BJP supporter its better to ensure that one of the regional parties is on your side. The BJP cannot ally with the Congress. The others can ally with anybody. Firstly,the take out one man logic applies to other parties. Take away Gandhi family, Congress would be left with nothing. Take away the Thackeray name, Shiv Sena would suffer. But the difference is BJP is dependent on a worker, Modi, somebody who raised from the grassroots whereas the other parties are dependent on a family. Thus, BJP will have new leaders as there is a internal democracy within the party. Next, please remember BJP is still in an alliance in Maharashtra elections. They went in the elections with 4 other parties. They still want to form the government with that existing alliance. So BJP does want alliances and is committed to it while SS greed made them break the alliance. With SS/BJP running independently, it has offered a good reality check for all parties. But seeing SS indecent targeting of Modi, there is definitely some anger among workers of BJP. So how will SS correct the damage and hatred they caused/created? That's gonna be one factor to consider on should SS be back together in MH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
someone Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Also after the SAD campaigned for the INLD in Haryana i feel BJP will snap ties in Punjab Unlike, SS which made it into a anti-Modi campaign, SAD were focused on defeating Congress. There isn't much tension between BJP/SAD parties workers whereas already large tension between SS/BJP workers. So I doubt that's gonna be the case of snapping ties there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raghav_12 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I hope NCP and Congress would be regretting their height of stupidity. I can't understand, in fact no sane person can, that despite knowing their is zero chance of their winning election if they go independently, they still decided to part ways after knowing SS and BJP broke up. I mean after break-up between SS-BJP there was sniff of a chance, they should have captured that. They had a template of such successful strategy from by-elections. That's where Congress is failing country again and again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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