Janata Parivar II

[G_B_]

The BJP alliance will get 35-40% of the vote IMO. The big questions is can Manjhi, Congress , RJD beat that vote range. Maybe if the BJP was not in alliance there is a good chance this coalition would have been the winning one. But Paswan plus that other party are good enough for 10% of the popular vote.

[G_B_]

Bihar: Laloo in Search of a New Political Pasture

Sunday 22 March 2015 by Arun Srivastava

Laloo Prasad Yadav’s reluctance to allow his RJD legislators to join the Nitish Government has intrigued the political circles and the experts alike. Even his senior RJD colleagues are unable to decode his silence. His reluctance could have been appreciated if the Nitish Government was on a sticky pitch and was not sure of completing its term till the Assembly elections. In the numbers game also Nitish enjoys the support of the required legislators and naturally in this backdrop he is firmly in saddle. Usually the leadership of a political party prefers to stay in power to use its benefits and also the State administration during the elections. But this perspective has also not prevailed upon Laloo. Even the stay in power for a brief period of nearly nine months would have helped the RJD to reach out to the people with administrative largesse. But one development points to the end of the bonhomie between the two leaders. Laloo was supposed to be the most important dignitary at the swearing in of Nitish. He preferred to stay back in Saifai, the home town of Mulayam Singh. He was there to look after the engagement ceremony of his daughter. According to the earlier schedule, he was to be in Patna. But he skipped it. He was angry with Nitish for inducting Lalan Singh and P.K. Shahi as the Cabinet Ministers. In fact Jitanram Manjhi had sacked these two persons from his Cabinet. While finalising the names of the probable Ministers Laloo had in fact objected to their induction and, if the party sources are to be believed, Nitish had consented to do so. But on the day of the swearing-in their names were forwarded to the Governor. Laloo had quipped in Saifai that this move was a “great betrayal”. These two politicians have in fact been responsible for Laloo’s present political plight and being debarred from contesting elections. While Lalan Singh was the petitioner who filed the PIL, Shahi as the advocate had argued his case before the Patna High Court. They were primarily responsible for Laloo’s conviction in the famous fodder scam case. Nevertheless the senior RJD leaders have their own arguments. They point out that irrespective of the fact whether he supports Nitish or does not allow his legislators to join the government, the people of Bihar, especially his support-base, the Yadavs, would not forget and exonerate him of his action of extending support to Nitish. Even if his stand is viewed in the backdrop of the compulsion of realpolitik, his opposing Manjhi has not been appreciated by his own men. It is a fact that almost all the important faces of the RJD were against his decision. Laloo may not prefer to strike back against Nitish at this stage as it would prove to be counter-productive and simply add to the strength of the BJP. With the purpose of assuaging Laloo’s hurt feelings, Nitish has turned quite docile and polite. He intends to send the message across that he was following and acting on the advice of Laloo. But behind the façade of this comraderie both are scheming their future actions. The most unfortunate aspect of this cold war between the two leaders is that the move to revive the united Janata Party seems to have been virtually abandoned. Some references to this are being made but these are simply rituals for public consumption. During the last three months of the Bihar crisis the task of unifying the former socialist elements and leaders has been completely ignored. Till December while Laloo was quite enthusiastic and discussed the future prospect of the revived Janata Party with his old socialist comrades, on his part Nitish had made it his life’s mission to give it a concrete shape no doubt obviously with the goal of using it as the launching pad for entering into the national political arena. But after January 2015 with Nitish busy executing operation oust Jitanram Manjhi, the move to resurrect the Janata Party lost relevance. This has also been a matter of surprise for the political circles. Questions have also surfaced; how could Laloo and Nitish ignore the danger of the saffron juggernaut ravaging Bihar? It was also argued that to protect Bihar the JD(U) and RJD should have launched a joint socialist campaign at the national level. But this does not appear to be happening. What has added a new dimension to the confusion is the suggestion from senior RJD leader and former Union Minister Raghuvansh Prasad Singh to Nitish Kumar to induct Jitan- ram Manjhi in his Cabinet as the Deputy Chief Minister. Singh is known to speak the mind of Laloo. Though his statement was rebutted by the leader of the RLD legislature group, Abdul Bari Siddiqui, interestingly no one on behalf of Laloo officially refuted it. Laloo is not simply depending on political arithmetic. Instead he has been eyeing on the future political restructuring of Bihar politics. While the BJP is not keen to accept Manjhi in its fold for the obvious reason of not displeasing and antagonising its upper-caste support-base, Laloo finds a politically correct ally in Manjhi. His joining hands with Laloo will not alienate the Yadavs from Laloo. In fact the Yadavs have been supporting him in his fight against Nitish. In Bihar the intermediate castes or the OBCs have antagonistic relations with the Dalits and Harijans. The State has been witness to a number of bloody clashes and massacres. Even today some such clashes take place. If they come together the beginning of a new social engineering would be witnessed in Bihar and this eventually would have a major impact on Uttar Pradesh. With the OBCs and Dalits with him Laloo could emerge as the new face of inclusive politics. Notwithstanding the fact that Laloo was with Nitish’s campaign to oust Manjhi from the post of the Chief Minister, he was never too harsh towards him. After Manjhi resigned Laloo had observed: “Manjhiji has ruined his future by getting involved with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). He should have resigned earlier. He has ruined his future by getting involved with the BJP.” On his part Manjhi has not been too critical of Laloo. While announcing the formation of his Hindustani Awami Morcha (HAM) at the “JD(U) Garib Swabhiman Karyakarta Sammelan” at Patna, just a week after the Aam Aadmi Party swept to power in Delhi on a pro-common man agenda, Jitanram Manjhi vowed to follow Arvind Kejriwal’s model in Bihar. While the meet witnessed an all-out attack on Nitish, with leaders calling him “power hungry”, they refrained from targeting Laloo. The core support-base of the Morcha would be the Mahadalits and Muslims. Interestingly while apprehensions were being expressed in political circles of the possible alignment of the HAM with BJP, some even calling it as the B-team of the BJP, Manjhi refuted speculations that he was about to ally with the BJP. The front is an attempt for the political awakening of Dalits as a unified pressure group of 22 per cent, which could transcend caste barriers to emerge as a vital force. The prime mission of the HAM would be to awaken the Dalits in Bihar who are completely unaware of their rights and privileges, They are exploited from all corners, and the administration, politicians and other officials keep mum on this. Even during the phase of liberalisation and reforms, the upper- caste people of Bihar had made it impossible for the people from Dalit and Musahar community to survive. The upper-caste people wanted these Dalits and Musahars to leave the village; they did not allow them to avail the basic amenities of life. If someone dared to raise his voice and protest he would be beaten by the goons of the upper-caste people. The BJP leadership is yet not clear about its future strategic approach to the Manjhi factor. Manjhi too is not too keen to identify himself with the saffron brigade. While he has been under pressure from some of his OBC and upper-caste leaders to align with the BJP, some of the senior leaders of the Manjhi group are in favour of adopting a watch-and-wait policy. The BJP is divided about what kind of role it would expect Manjhi and his associates to play ahead of the Assembly polls due in November. Some senior OBC leaders are holding the opinion that the party would not benefit if Manjhi and his colleagues align with the BJP. Instead the BJP would gain if he contested the elections as a separate political group. This would cut into the vote-base of the ruling JD-U-led alliance. The fact of the matter is: these leaders and also the upper-caste leaders are scared of Manjhi’s sudden outbursts against the rich and upper-caste people. This would create an embarrassment. Nevertheless after launching the Morcha, Manjhi is going slow on the formation of a political party. Narendra Singh, the former Minister in the Nitish Cabinet, has been the new Chanakya of the Manjhi group. Incidentally he has been known as the protégé of Laloo. Even with Nitish, he owed his personal loyalty to Laloo. He is in favour of bringing the OBCs and Dalits on a common platform. Interestingly the comrades of Manjhi refused to comment on the speculations regarding the HAM being backed by the saffron party. The leaders of the Manjhi camp, when asked about this, refused to comment on the issue saying it was too early to decide though some BJP leaders were seen taking keen interest in Manjhi’s HAM. Manjhi knows his real political strength: that he, riding on the support of about 22 per cent Dalit votes, can tilt the Assembly result either way.

The author is a senior journalist and can be contacted at sriv52@gmail.com http://www.mainstreamweekly.net/article5549.html Very good analysis....dare i say that Manjahi and Laloo and Congress might fight the elections in coalition. If Lalu does go with Nitish and it alienates the Yadav voters into the hands of the BJP. Even if Jd(u)-RJD win it makes Lalu Prasad Yadav politically weak even within the RJD. It might actually be better for Lalu to bite the bullet and sit as the leader of opposition than be permanently weakened within a governing Jd(u) RJD alliance with Nitish calling the shots. Manjhi has emerged as the joker in the pack.... has changed the face of bihar politics.

[Sachin=GOD]

In the end Lalu-Nitsh will go to polls together because they know that it is the only alliance which can challange BJP. As for sitting in opposition - Lalu wouldn't want that because at this point, with he himself being banned from contesting, his biggest aim would be make sure that his family's political future is secured with his children becoming Ministers etc and that can only happen if RJD is in power.

[Sachin=GOD]

I agree that Manjhi is the joker in the pack - nobody knows which way he will go. Funny days ahead..

[G_B_]

In the end Lalu-Nitsh will go to polls together because they know that it is the only alliance which can challange BJP. As for sitting in opposition - Lalu wouldn't want that because at this point' date=' with he himself being banned from contesting, his biggest aim would be make sure that his family's political future is secured with his children becoming Ministers etc and that can only happen if RJD is in power.[/quote'] as a much junior partner in a winning Jd(u) RJD alliance? While i expect RJD-Jd(u) to happen as the most likely outcome i dont dismiss the possibility of that alliance not happening. If the Yadav voters desert him for somebody else (most likely the BJP) then he will be politically finished despite winning. Will be interesting to see if HAM does manage to make it to the polls. They are going to concentrate on 125 seats. A wise move deploying resources to regions where they can win. Even if they poll 5-10% it will be a concentrated vote on many regions.

[Sachin=GOD]

as a much junior partner in a winning Jd(u) RJD alliance? While i expect RJD-Jd(u) to happen as the most likely outcome i dont dismiss the possibility of that alliance not happening. If the Yadav voters desert him for somebody else (most likely the BJP) then he will be politically finished despite winning. Will be interesting to see if HAM does manage to make it to the polls. They are going to concentrate on 125 seats. A wise move deploying resources to regions where they can win. Even if they poll 5-10% it will be a concentrated vote on many regions.

See, it is quite clear that his children (tej pratap, tejaswi and Misa) are not good at politics - in such a scenario if the party has to sit in opposition for 5 years then it will be all but finished with in fighting, camps etc. Your point amonths adav voters deserting him is valid so I guess a post poll alliance with JDU might be done instead of going as Janata Parivar. The thing with Manjhi is that whether he can sustain his momentum for another 7-8 months (from now till elections) - I doubt whether he can do that, especially since all this while there will be overtures to him from all parties so some of his supporters may go to other parties.

[G_B_]

]See, it is quite clear that his children (tej pratap, tejaswi and Misa) are not good at politics - in such a scenario if the party has to sit in opposition for 5 years then it will be all but finished with in fighting, camps etc. Your point amonths adav voters deserting him is valid so I guess a post poll alliance with JDU might be done instead of going as Janata Parivar. The thing with Manjhi is that whether he can sustain his momentum for another 7-8 months (from now till elections) - I doubt whether he can do that, especially since all this while there will be overtures to him from all parties so some of his supporters may go to other parties.

but he is still 67... He has time on his side... Lets assume that he makes them ministers. Then for whatever reason he passes away. You think Nitish Kumar is going to keep them ministers? Either way they are cooked. Nitish kumar is going to finish off all resistance to him within the RJD alliance. If his yadav base is going to split then IMO best he establish himself as the only other opposition to the BJP. With the Congress by his side he is going to poll overall more than the Jd(u) in any case. If the Jd(u) fail to win this elections there is a good chance half the party will goto Lalu and the other half will goto BJP. As much as we debate it the BJP is always going to be part of the Bihar political spectrum in the next 10 years with upper caste support base of about 20%. There are question marks over the futures of RJD and Jd(u). One of these two will die out and the other will get a lot stronger at the dead ones expense.

[Khalpat]

Bihar is one state which votes on the basis of caste and only caste. The reason why JDU and BJP combination did well in last election was the combined population of Upper Caste, Bhumihars, Muslims all voted for Nitish. BJP after this break up know that Muslims are not going to vote for them so they can do few key things: 1. Use Manjhi and RamVilas Paswan to get all the lower caste votes. 2. Cut the vote of Yadav's by fielding stong Yadav candidates in North Eastern Bihar. Lalu and Nitish know that MY (Muslim Yadav combination) is a big combination so BJP will have to target the Yadav votes. The drawback for Nitish is their votebank of Bhumihars are not going to vote for them so he totally depends on traditional Lalu Yadav voters.

[G_B_]

Bihar is one state which votes on the basis of caste and only caste. The reason why JDU and BJP combination did well in last election was the combined population of Upper Caste, Bhumihars, Muslims all voted for Nitish. BJP after this break up know that Muslims are not going to vote for them so they can do few key things: 1. Use Manjhi and RamVilas Paswan to get all the lower caste votes. 2. Cut the vote of Yadav's by fielding stong Yadav candidates in North Eastern Bihar. Lalu and Nitish know that MY (Muslim Yadav combination) is a big combination so BJP will have to target the Yadav votes. The drawback for Nitish is their votebank of Bhumihars are not going to vote for them so he totally depends on traditional Lalu Yadav voters.

they have appointed a Bhupendra Yadav as state secretary in charge of Bihar and plus Nandkishore Yadav is being elevated. Thats exactly what they are going to do. If BJP split the Yadav vote they have won.... I dont think they want to allign directly with Manjhi. It will upset their upper caste vote. However they will not attack him during elections. So long as Manjhi is sucking votes out of the Jd(u)-RJD its fine for the BJP. In general Rudy will direct BJP strategy....BJP alliance need 40% of the vote to win this IMO if Manjhi contests alone with a separate party.

[G_B_]

Addressing party workers on the birth anniversary of socialist ideologue Ram Mahohar Lohia here, the former Union Minister said, "You have let me down in the Lok Sabha polls. Had we won 40-45 seats, SP would have formed the government at the Centre and Congress would have supported us." "You have ruined me," Yadav told the SP workers after inaugurating a conference hall in the name of Lohia at party headquarters here.

http://english.manoramaonline.com/news/politics/you-have-ruined-me-mulayam-to-party-workers.html delusions... I realsie this guy was addressing a rally and needed to appear to be strong but BJP got 282 - 40 seats would be 242, they would have still formed government, I am pretty sure even the SP cadre will know this in their hearts.

[diga]

Is AAP joining JDU led alliance in Bihar? Now officially in company of Lalu

[G_B_]

NEW DELHI: JD(U) and RJD are likely to contest assembly elections in Bihar scheduled later this year under one symbol and as one party, with the reins of leadership in the hands of state chief minister Nitish Kumar, according to JD(U) sources. It was learnt that the agreement was reached on the basis on discussions between Kumar, JD (U) president Sharad Yadav, RJD chief Lalu Prasad, Samajawdi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav and JD (U) general secretary K C Tyagi. The decision was taken at the meeting of top leaders of Janata Parivar who are trying to bring together the Janata formations as a counterweight to BJP in the aftermath of their debacle in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The fresh thrust on JD(U)-RJD alliance in Bihar shows that the two parties, along with other Janata Parivar outfits, are not ready to leave anything to chance in the politically crucial state after the saffron outfit's impressive show in 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/JDU-RJD-may-contest-Bihar-polls-under-one-symbol/articleshow/46731858.cms

[Texan]

‘Janata parties merger done’ RJD chief Lalu Prasad on Sunday said the merger of Janata Parivar had already taken place and its announcement would be a mere formality. He added that six parties—SP, RJD, JD(U), JD(S), INLD and SJP— had come together to “drive out†the BJP from Bihar and the Centre. Speaking at a high-level party meeting here, Lalu Prasad said: “Six parties have merged. Mulayam Singh Yadav will make a formal announcement about it soon. Ek jhanda, ek nishan, BJP ko bhagane ke liye maang raha Hindustanâ€. SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav has been holding final round of talks on the merger. The new party may be called Samajwadi Janata Dal with Chakra (wheel) as its symbol. Lalu Prasad has faced resistance to the merger from within his party because of the traditional rivalry between his Yadav support base and the Koeri-Kurmis, who are loyal to JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar. Senior leaders like Jagdanand Singh, Raghuvansh Prasad Singh and Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav had not been in favour of the merger. Pappu Yadav, who attended Sunday’s function, looked uncomfortable on the dais. Lalu Prasad also used the opportunity to indirectly answer Pappu Yadav’s recurrent claims of being the RJD’s chief’s successor. “It is the son who becomes the successor,†he said. The JD(U) welcomed Lalu’s statement on the merger. The party’s national spokesperson K C Tyagi said: “Lalu Prasad is the champion of social justice. We are enthused with his merger nod talks. Nitish Kumar had been a prime mover of merger talksâ€. Asked if the new party would declare Nitish as the CM candidate in the next Bihar elections, Tyagi said it was a question for the future and senior leaders alone could take a call on it. Meanwhile, Rashtriya Lok Samata Party chief and minister in the Modi Cabinet Upendra Kushwaha said in a public meeting here that the merger would result in Nitish “losing his existenceâ€. http://indianexpress.com/article/india/politics/janata-parivar-merges-lalu-dares-bjp-with-ek-jhanda-ek-nishan-slogan/

Just take a look at their agenda. BJP ko harana...... That's all that ties these Ayaram Gayarams together. No agenda. :two_thumbs_up:

[Malcolm Merlyn]

Someone tell me How many votes will INLD/SP/JDS garner in Bihar?How many votes will JDS SP RJD get in Hariyana or Karnataka? The only place this merger will make sense is in Bihar where RJD and JDU are combining.But this will mean Yadavs leaving RJD to go towards BJP.Already dalits have abandoned JDU.

[Malcolm Merlyn]

Pappu Yadav surely looking to quit RJD.About time that RJD is split.

[Texan]

Someone tell me How many votes will INLD/SP/JDS garner in Bihar?How many votes will JDS SP RJD get in Hariyana or Karnataka? The only place this merger will make sense is in Bihar where RJD and JDU are combining.But this will mean Yadavs leaving RJD to go towards BJP.Already dalits have abandoned JDU.

Yes, Bihar is the only common ground. I think they just want to project a united opposition to BJP, nothing more.

[G_B_]

There are perks to being a national party. I think their aim will be to get about 70 seats and then hope the congress manage to get about 150 seats in 2019. They can leverage their support to get some key posts in the central government. The advantages (A) harder for members to defect from a national party. Jd(u) MP's can easily defect to the BJP and break the party. Ditto with RJD. Harder to defect from the congress or the BJP considering you need a lot of people to defect with you. Re elections only way to switch (B) As a national party you can get central government protection or sorts and bungalows in prime areas of Delhi. Lalu recently lost his bungalow. Sharad Pawar's NCP rolls on the same model of being a national party. © Its not just about direct influence. SP is in power in UP, they can channel their funds and lend their cadre to Jd(s) to power them in Karnataka. Money and manpower does play its part. The aim will be for Atleast UP or Bihar to be under Janta control. Bihar seems to be the most likely considering that UP has not returned a party to power for a while and i dont think Mulayam has ever been voted back to power. The SP seem to always gain power only to give it back after their term. Compare that to Bihar where Nitish and Lalu have had extended spells as leaders over many terms. These guys lose Bihar then if UP falls the Janata party may collpase considering they wont be in power anywhere. Its a dangerous game though. The Indian electorate and the Bihari electorate are not the most informed bunch. Many times they vote based simply on the symbol. It may cost them votes if they change their symbol so close to the election. Needless to say the the BJP strategists will float a Janata Party symbol to suck out votes (even if 2-3%) and create confusion. Even in Bihar there are a lot of district level Jd(u) and RJD commanders who will be fearing the outcome of this merger. Clearly there can only be one person who gets the ticket for the seat. Like every surgery if done well the outcomes and dividends are evident. However do a botch job and somebody is going to be permanently eliminated from politics in Bihar. Ego is the big issue. Ego of the main leaders. Ego of the district leaders etc. A district leader who feels he has been wronged or overlooked for an opponent he has been battling for 20 years etc might just decide to contest as an independent or even contest on a Bjp alliance ticket. Remains to be seen how Nitish and co handle it. Cause i feel Jd(u) will have to give way in terms of equitable seat sharing with the RJD.

[Malcolm Merlyn]

There are perks to being a national party. I think their aim will be to get about 70 seats and then hope the congress manage to get about 150 seats in 2019. They can leverage their support to get some key posts in the central government. The advantages (A) harder for members to defect from a national party. Jd(u) MP's can easily defect to the BJP and break the party. Ditto with RJD. Harder to defect from the congress or the BJP considering you need a lot of people to defect with you. Re elections only way to switch (B) As a national party you can get central government protection or sorts and bungalows in prime areas of Delhi. Lalu recently lost his bungalow. Sharad Pawar's NCP rolls on the same model of being a national party. © Its not just about direct influence. SP is in power in UP, they can channel their funds and lend their cadre to Jd(s) to power them in Karnataka. Money and manpower does play its part. The aim will be for Atleast UP or Bihar to be under Janta control. Bihar seems to be the most likely considering that UP has not returned a party to power for a while and i dont think Mulayam has ever been voted back to power. The SP seem to always gain power only to give it back after their term. Compare that to Bihar where Nitish and Lalu have had extended spells as leaders over many terms. These guys lose Bihar then if UP falls the Janata party may collpase considering they wont be in power anywhere. Its a dangerous game though. The Indian electorate and the Bihari electorate are not the most informed bunch. Many times they vote based simply on the symbol. It may cost them votes if they change their symbol so close to the election. Needless to say the the BJP strategists will float a Janata Party symbol to suck out votes (even if 2-3%) and create confusion. Even in Bihar there are a lot of district level Jd(u) and RJD commanders who will be fearing the outcome of this merger. Clearly there can only be one person who gets the ticket for the seat. Like every surgery if done well the outcomes and dividends are evident. However do a botch job and somebody is going to be permanently eliminated from politics in Bihar. Ego is the big issue. Ego of the main leaders. Ego of the district leaders etc. A district leader who feels he has been wronged or overlooked for an opponent he has been battling for 20 years etc might just decide to contest as an independent or even contest on a Bjp alliance ticket. Remains to be seen how Nitish and co handle it. Cause i feel Jd(u) will have to give way in terms of equitable seat sharing with the RJD.

UP is not electing SP back to power.BSP Congress and MIM will eat into the SP votes and JD U or JD S or RJD or INLD wont get them a new vote bank. Chautala and co. are in jail and politically in dire straits.Same with RJD and JD S.Except SP and JD U none of the parties have much of clout. Secondly once these parties merge and the old party ceases to exist people can defect as the old party is non existent. The problem with these parties is that they are all vying for similar vote banks in UP and Bihar.No new votebank.Infact Yadavs and Kurmis may not support the combine as much as they supported RJD and JDU separately. This merger can only help one person.Nitish Kumar.But that is going to be very difficult.

[Texan]

So how does this work..... Chautala's INLD joins the Janata Party union, which is staunchly opposed to BJP. At the same time, Chautala has an alliance with SAD, BJP's most loyal ally. Isn't that going to create some kind of conflict within these Janata segments? Chautala would, I think, gladly join hands with BJP again if he had a chance.

[someone]

BJP is certainly cautions and going for alliances this Bihar elections. And that's the right thing, they need the support of new people or new parties. Just because, it didn't work in Delhi doesn't make it a bad move. After all, BJP won LS with such strategy of getting new alliances and other party members. It just needs to make sure it doesn't give the leadership or the key positions to such new members. Pappu Yadav and HAM party are very much in talks with BJP and on the right time, they might declare their alliance openly.