G_B_ Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 That still leaves a deficit of about about 43 seats. If Lalu wins 80/100. (we have to assume that Pappu Yadav will not eat into his vote). Congress is bound to contest 30. Paswan is bound to probably contest about 40. A lot of seats will see an overlap as the Congress support of about 7-8% is the strongest in Bihar among sections of the SC community. So reserved seats they will contest in many places in direct competition with Paswan.. Where they both contest the same seat. I am pretty confident that Pappu if he stays on his own is going to contest a lot of seats in direct competition with the RJD in the Kosi belt. Funnier things have happened in politics but the odds of it are happening are low IMO. From what i am reading there are about 60-70 seats in which the BJP and the JD(u) will be in direct contest against each other. Ie both coalitions will have two candidates and independents wont matter in terms of winning, they can only be a spoiler. So effectively for the said combo of RJD + to come to power your talking about winning 123/185-190 odd. It would be fair to assume only the BJP have a even a theoretical chance of forming government on their own. See if the BJP get something like 100 plus seats on their own they will probably end up breaking the smaller parties not in their alliance to reach 123 on their own. Its happened in Jharkhand. But realistically I feel as things stand RJD+BJP >123 Jd(u) +BJP > 123. Potentially Jd(u)+RJD >123. So the RJD needs either the BJP or Jd(u) to form government. Theoretically. Ignoring ideology etc. For the RJD plus to potentially come to power, the Janata + alliance would have to totally sweep the elections whereby the BJP is wiped out. It means that The Janata alliance gets something like 200 seats. In such a scenario potentially it is possible for RJD to go it alone with the smaller parties of the Congress etc. Its exactly what happened in 2010 when the JD(u) and BJP together swept the election whereby potentially both were in a position to form government (theoretically) on their own. But the BJP would have to collapse in a big way for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 Left rules out joining anti-BJP alliance in Bihar http://www.deccanherald.com/content/482578/left-rules-joining-anti-bjp.html they were worth about 1-2%... seems Yechury wants to build above everything else. Would have looked odd if they were with congress in bihar but up against them in Kerala Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 10, 2015 Share Posted June 10, 2015 CPI(M) general secretary Sitaram Yechury told reporters after a meeting of his party’s central committee here on Monday that an alliance of the CPI, CPI(M) and the CPI (ML) is on the cards in the State. He added that a final decision has not been taken and the party is keenly watching the situation in the State. “What we have decided is that strengthening of the Left is only strengthening a force against communal forces. Left has been the most consistent and will remain the most consistent and strong anti-communal force in the country. So, this is our decision taken along with other Left parties some time ago,” he said. Yechury added that the CPI(M) will hold discussions with other Left parties, note the developments and take decisions accordingly. He welcomed the alliance between the RJD and JD(U) and said the coming together of the two parties will be good for the fight against communal forces. A source in the CPI(M) said that in constituencies where the Left parties are not contesting, they will support the non-Congress secular parties. Yechury has been holding the Congress responsible for the growth of communal politics and the subsequent victory of the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. “The only door we have kept open is for Left unity. Let the journey begin from this door first. Our target is communist forces should contest the polls together,” he said. He also announced the CPI(M)’s decision to hold nationwide protests on rural and agrarian issues from August 1 to 14. “This campaign fortnight, apart from struggles on the burning local issues, will highlight the drastic cuts in MNREGA allocation, and the undermining of the food security commitments by the Centre,” he said. http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/politics/congress-factor-keeps-cpim-off-janata-alliance-in-bihar/article7295254.ece Seems the commies aim to put up candidates in about 60-70 seats. Especially where Congress is contesting. They are aiming for about 2-3% of the total vote. The NCP has demanded by the looks of it 15 seats. They will probably settle for 8/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Reason: while Prasad is insisting on 100 seats for his party, top JD(U) sources told TOI that Nitish Kumar, as the leader of the alliance, would not part with more than 60 for his alliance partner. "Alliance with RJD is still in discussion. It might still fall through if Lalu insists on contesting on more than 50-60 seats because Nitish has to accommodate the Congress and other possible allies in the Left. Since Lalu has announced Nitish as the CM face, he must either accept the leader's command or quit," a top JD(U) official privy to the party's electoral strategy told TOI on Wednesday. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Sparring-over-seats-may-hurt-JDU-RJD-alliance/articleshow/47622417.cms Nitish is not leaving much on the table for Lalu. No deputy CM post. Declaring Nitish CM candidate. Now 60 seats for Lalu.....If lalu accepts then well played Nitish kumar. Has used Congress to corner lalu in a big way. We must give Nitish Kumar credit for that. We must also say kudos to RaGa. He has leveraged the situation and the Congress IMO whatever the outcome are going to come out of it with more than 4 seats. If lalu accepts i feel this is the beginning of the end of the RJD and lalu in bihar politics. Honestly if i was him i would accept losing and go with Manjhi. He will probably come third but atleast his party would be intact and he would live to fight another day. He has a concentrated vote base so maybe he would be able to salvage something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 seat sharing i am getting is 120 Jd(u) 60 RJD 50 Congress 13 others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asterix Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 seat sharing i am getting is 120 Jd(u) 60 RJD 50 Congress 13 others. 50 Congress? That's way above Congress's aukaat in Bihar... Laaloo, if he agrees, is a goner.., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 See what happens is the lalu vote base is based on the yadav-muslim combo, worth about 30% of the total electorate. (he does not get all of it but major chunks) concentrated in certain districts. In the lok sabha muslims did go with lalu and the congress and combined they polled about 30%. I think 70% bihar muslims supported this combo. Now once the congress put their faith in nitish even without muslims that combo is worth like 20-25% which is much more than Lalu+Manjhi or any other available combo. So they are going to dump lalu. Their objective is to keep the BJP out , be it lalu or nitish they will vote for the stronger faction. Had RaGa backed the RJD Nitish would be the in the same boat as Lalu today. The problem the RJD faces is if they even contest 80 seats after hard negotiation the impression the masses get is Lalu has bent the knee to Nitish kumar. With Pappu Yadav and the BJP waiting in the wings to grab the Yadav vote or make inroads Lalu will lose hold over his remaining Yadav vote bank. Literally no ghar ka na ghat ka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 NDTV - Former Bihar Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi meets Amit Shah, says will contest Assembly polls with BJP THAT is going to be interesting. What does he mean 'contest with BJP' - will his party join NDA or merge with BJP or just get into an alliance.....lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Sirf aur sirf yeh baat hui ki hum apas main milkar chunaav ladenge...: Jitan Ram Manjhi on meeting with Amit Shah - ANI So how many seats he should get? I say not more than 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 I am not 100% sure how this is going to work out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malcolm Merlyn Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Heard Pappu yadav too will join NDA.It will be a very interesting coalition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dial_100 Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Wow Nitish managed to curtail Laloo. G_B, the reason I asked about that combo possibly getting the power because there was a credible input. This is bad news for BJP for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted June 11, 2015 Share Posted June 11, 2015 Heard Pappu yadav too will join NDA.It will be a very interesting coalition. not 100% sure a coalition of 5 parties BJP + smaller ones (assuming Pappu does join). Paswan especially is not going to be happy. The BJP will need to make his brother a minister at the centre or something to placate him. Of the parties 2 are unknowns Manjhi and Pappu. Nobody knows how much they are worth. You could have a situation of rebellion from aspiring BJP candidates. I think many were expecting BJP to contest 180-200 seats. Bare minimum IMO the BJP should contest is 150. Could be many of the BJP allies could end up against BJP aspirants who missed out. So you could have a repeat of maahrashtra where bjp won 123 seats but allies won 1 seat. Now clearly the BJP can have surplus capacity in Bihar because it last time contested 101 seats. Plus some 22 seats in the lok sabha means big hitters like a Rudy etc are already elected. But its a factor. The central government will have to placate those who miss out who are relative big hitters with something. Promise them RS seats or promise them places in local committees etc. Rebellion need to be handled. It could be this is a case of bluff and counter bluff from Shah. Notice nobody on either alliance is talking about final numbers. By simply maybe having Manjhi in this camp the BJP is sending a message to smaller allies. It also sends a message to Pappu. Join us on our terms or be washed away. He was looking to join manjhi. It also takes away Lalu's bluff of pulling out and going with manjhi. This is rapidly becoming The alliance that wins will be the one which manages to (A) Manage seat distribution. (B) Quell internal rebellion arising from seat distribution. © Work well together, cadres of the party not contesting that seat will need to turn out for their alliance partner (D) Turnout. Lower turnout favours the Janata pariwar. Higher (60% and above) favours the BJP. Having Pappu and Manjhi do give the BJP alliance an edge on paper. But does it compromise them in terms of organisation of rebellion? Remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 'Insulted' Samajwadi Party pulls out of Bihar alliance, to fight polls alone “We were not consulted about seat sharing and felt insulted by Lalu and Nitish Kumar's tactics.” The SP leader, however, refused to take blame for the spilt in the grand alliance of six parties announced by their top leaders to counter BJP in Bihar, and said, “You people (media) decide who is at fault, who am I to comment on that.” Upset over the allocation of five seats in Bihar by RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar, Samajwadi Party’s Mulayam Singh Yadav skipped a Mahagathbandan (grand alliance) rally on August 30 in Patna. http://zeenews.india.com/news/bihar/insulted-samajwadi-party-pulls-out-of-bihar-alliance-to-fight-polls-alone_1666655.html Bihar Elections: Samajwadi Party Walks Out Of Janata Parivar, To Contest Polls Alone http://focusnews.com/india/bihar-elections-samajwadi-party-walks-out-of-janata-parivar-to-contest-polls-alone/119950/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detonator Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 ^ I think this just means a few more seats to congress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 ^ i dont see the bjp complaining if congress gets more seats in bihar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texan Posted September 3, 2015 Author Share Posted September 3, 2015 :giggle: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detonator Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 ^ i dont see the bjp complaining if congress gets more seats in bihar SP is contesting alone, so might split few votes. Won't be decisive though. :giggle: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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