Desi Cartman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Media follows fun, when BJP was winning it was fun to ride the wave and criticize Congress. It was fun to do that when AAP was contesting their first elections and then media also turned on AAP as it was fun. Same way 3 weeks ago, BJP and the "hosts" were not letting AAP speak and last week they were not letting BJP speak. Today it'll be 50-50 as they are not sure who will win :) Media in India is there to either take a side or give their bhashaan. There is no one who asks good questions to both sides except Ravish Kumar, I enjoy watching his show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desi Cartman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I hope AAP wins else be prepared for endless :whine: O teri to waise bhi pichle 1 mahine see :whine: chalu hai :cantstop: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desi Cartman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Don't underestimate AAP... You see their arrogance without being in power... When in power, just imagine... I was watching Manoranjan Bharti's programme on NDTV in which he was trying to take an impromptu opinion poll at an eatery... He tried his best but majority of the crowd was going for BJP... The middle class is not going to ditch BJP... It's going to be a tough fight... My prediction: a hung assembly with AAP being forced to take Congress support to form the Govt. I see that BJP has become arrogant, I guess you dont see arrogance of the party that you tend to support. Till 4 months ago I was telling people that AK messed up and he did but then seeing Nalin Kohli terming debating with AAP representative as child molestation or BJP doing what they did to form govt in Maharashtra made me think differently. My prediction is: BJP winning 35-36 seats or 34-34 split between BJP and AAP,2 to Congress :giggle: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I haven't been in India for last 2-3 months, so can't really say but before that media was working like sold-out agents of BJP and decisively against AAP. AAP always maintained their support base in Delhi including last LS polls, but the way media ridiculed AAP and Kejriwal it seemed that whole AAP phenomena is over. Instead of condemning Kejriwal slapping incidents media made fun along with bhakts. When election was announced, everybody thought AAP is finished. How that notion was developed despite AAP winning around 35% votes in Modi wave during parliament elections? It was all managed by Media. Probably strong AAP support forced media to swallow bitter pill and admit AAP is rising which the had no intention to do. That was earlier. Now that the BJP as come to power, they have been treating the media, especially those who opposed them during Lok Sabha, very badly. Media couldn't really effect the polls in states like Maharashtra or Jharkhand etc but in a Urban state like Delhi they felt that they would have maximum impact so almost all of the major media outlets (apart from India TV and Zee News) have become AAP Bhakts to show Modi that they can influence the polls and shouldn't be treated shabbily. Its a pretty big gamble they have taken because if BJP wins (which it will IMO) then they will be a far worse position than before and will be forced to kowtow to BJP's demands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desi Cartman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Better than Con party... I still think there is a chance to BJP , but if Delhi people are ready to get fooled again what we can do? As i said earlier we have BJP in center any over the top adventure from these guys Govt can be thrown easily :winky: Two things: * People have been getting fooled into voting for BJP at MCD for many years and have in the past been fooled into voting for Congress so maybe they will vote for AAP again :icflove: * Either way, its better for Dilli. AK or Kiran bedi, either of them will be better for dilli than what we have had in the past. My worry for AK is not getting full majority and inexperince and for Bedi is lack of support within BJP, lack of experience and how will she change the usual way of doing "corrupt" politics. Lets see :hysterical::hysterical::hysterical::hysterical::hysterical: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texan Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Interesting, this survey is predicting 45 seats for BJP and 25 for AAP. Such a huge gap?! http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/bjp-govt-in-delhi-with-45-seats-aap-to-get-25-seats-survey/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coffee_rules Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 http://www.deccanherald.com/content/457919/bjp-govt-delhi-45-seats.html BJP 45, AAP 25! BJP govt in Delhi with 45 seats, AAP to get 25 seats: Survey New Delhi, Feb 5, 2015, (PTI) BJP is projected to get absolute majority in Delhi and win between 41-45 seats and AAP is likely to secure the second place. PTI File photo BJP is projected to get absolute majority in Delhi and win between 41-45 seats and AAP is likely to secure the second place, according to a survey by Research and Development Initiative (RDI). The survey states that AAP is likely to win between 21-25 seats in the 70-member Delhi Assembly. The vote share projection has given BJP 41 per cent and AAP 36 per cent. Where as, Congress is likely to bag between 0-4 seats with a voteshare of 12 per cent, according to the survey in the last week of January. In the 2013 election, BJP had won 31 seats with a vote share of 33 per cent, while ally SAD had got one seat. AAP had bagged 28 seats with a share of 25 per cent and Congress got 8 seats with a share of 25 per cent votes. According to the survey, BJP's Kiran Bedi is the top choice as a chief ministerial candidate with 46 per cent of people favouring her. The survey projected AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal second in the run with 40 per cent voters supporting him. Congress' Ajay Maken managed to secure the third position in the survey with 12 per cent voters in his favour. The survey was conducted with a sample size of of 21000 registered voters with a representative sample of 300 registered voters from 25 polling booths drawn in each constituency. Delhi will go to polls on February 7 and the results will be declared on February 10 :bhangra::elefant::bhangra::elefant::bhangra::elefant::bhangra::elefant::bhangra::elefant::bhangra::elefant: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoda-esque Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Interesting, this survey is predicting 45 seats for BJP and 25 for AAP. Such a huge gap?! http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/bjp-govt-in-delhi-with-45-seats-aap-to-get-25-seats-survey/ Obviously,more than meets the eye with these stats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desi Cartman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Interesting, this survey is predicting 45 seats for BJP and 25 for AAP. Such a huge gap?! http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/bjp-govt-in-delhi-with-45-seats-aap-to-get-25-seats-survey/ I don't know man. Some of these polls are flawed and people like us can spot it. There were polls that give congress 7 seats and we know that won't happen. There are surveys that say aap will win easily, we know that won't happen so it's either BJP winning easily or AAP being very close to it. I'd be surprised if its 42+ in favor of either party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desi Cartman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Obviously' date='more than meets the eye with these stats[/quote'] Their sample size is better than other surveys so far. Last survey on headlines today was 3000 people, seriously what can you get from that and even that data didnt show that AAP was clear winner. The survey posted today has a good size and might be more closer to reality. I have also seen that middle class people have gone to BJP, last assembly elections they were with AAP.. but then why did they vote for AAP in LS ....eeeh Im confused.:hitler: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desi Cartman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 OH AAj Tak showing 38-46 to AAP and just under that Zee showing 50% + vote for BJP ..:hysterical: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 OH AAj Tak showing 38-46 to AAP and just under that Zee showing 50% + vote for BJP ..:hysterical: LOL...many media houses will have egg on their faces one way or the other :cantstop: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texan Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 And this one predicts a clear win for AAP: https://in.news.yahoo.com/aam-aadmi-party-could-sweep-delhi-elections-022547767.html?noRedirect=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texan Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Some of these psephologists are going to get a big egg on their face. But it doesnt seem to matter to them. They keep coming up with these polls despite repeated failures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desi Cartman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 ^ they dont care as everybody forgets who got it right right or wrong. I personally go by NDTV polls, Dorabji is really good and usually accurate. They got the 2004 elections wrong like everybody else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 yeah some of these polls are fecked up. They are predicting some totally polar opposite things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asterix Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 O teri to waise bhi pichle 1 mahine see :whine: chalu hai :cantstop: :embarrassed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desi Cartman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I think people most "emotional" in this thread are either NRIs or OCIs :cantstop: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_B_ Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 One thing i am keen to see is the prediction of the bookies. Maybe forget the opinion polls. The rates offered by the bookies might be the best poll of them all. That theory needs to be quantified. We need to keep in mind that the types of questions asked by this poll might influence decisions. Secondly turnout does matter. As i have said before. BJP need 65% plus turnout. Not all the people surveyed in these polls turnout to vote. Its on a saturday many middle class voters may not want to give up their day of rest. Similarly an opposite effect might happen maybe the middle classes who dont have work might want to goto the polls and vote, while AAP's support base of the poor may have to work and cannot afford to bear the opportunity cost of voting. One thing i will say, that polls predicting big BJP win has surveyed 21,000 people. If that is true then maybe the weight of that polls might just be a better indicator. As with many statistical polls when sample n increases then it is more indicative of the population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desi Cartman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 BTW topi manufacturing industry owes a lot to Anna. Now its almost compulsory in delhi to wear the topi during elections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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