BREXIT:Yes or No?

[velu]

3 minutes ago, mishra said:

Where is that retard Juncker with EU expansion project. I would like to listen to his views on this. Turkey is doing complete crackdown post Erogan's orchestrated failed coup .French PM Valls booed after 74 killed in NIce. Germany attacked by crazy Axeman after that mass Rape incident. If only French be given a option they will definitely quit EU overwhelmingly. EU is one CIA type project.

i really dont think Turkey will be included in EU..

 

[mishra]

2 hours ago, velu said:

i really dont think Turkey will be included in EU..

 

Agree! Erdogan has shown the true colours of Turkey and its inherent fundamentalist attitude. There is more chance of them getting chucked out of NATO than making into EU.

[Malcolm Merlyn]

Turkey will not be in EU.No chance.

[Yoda-esque]

BOJO is the Foreign Secretary:hysterical:

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk

[G_B_]

 brexit for me....

[G_B_]

This free market access is also bit of a red herring....

 

These are the facts

 

(a) If UK does not get access to the single market, WTO rules apply. Its not as if EU can just randomly stamp anything they want. I read these rates range from 4% for manufactured goods to 32% for wine (which is not really produced in the UK). In the items the UK exports to the European Union the median tariff is about 7%. The drop in the pound has more than taken care of that. Even with the tariffs its actually cheaper to manufacture in the UK now and export to Europe with the tariffs. So long as the pound is in the 1.1-1.2 zone v the Euro tarrifs are not a problem at all.

 

(b) UK imports more than exports to the EU. Once again the fall in the pound is a natural barrier.

 

(c) With regards to the pound. The UK's current account deficit was close to 5% of GDP before the brexit. Infact the imbalance between exports and imports means the pound falling is a good thing. It would have happened anyways. Countries seldom maintain their currency after running years and years of deficits.

 

(d) If the UK can sign free trade agreements with Japan, India, Canada, China and Australia for example. As a block these countries have a bigger GDP than the remaining EU. For example the biggest gainers in an EU-India FTA would be British financial and insurance firms. However the FTA negotiations between EU and India were stalled due to German automakers and pharmaceutical firms. Breaking away from the EU allows the UK to negotiate easily with countries with which there is comparative advantage.

 

Its ridiculous that people are looking at short term gains. It was 40 years since we had the last referendum to enter the single market. The UK has wisely voted to take 2-3 years of pain and detach from the EU and look towards its future. There are more than 37 years to make up for it.

 

 

Edited July 19, 2016 by G_B_

[G_B_]

On 6/30/2016 at 5:10 PM, beautifulgame said:

* me this UK politics is far more thrilling than House of cards :lmao:

If Gove becomes PM they really should write a House of Cards based on him .

Trump and his theatrics look like a sideshow lol

The reason why House of Cards (originally a British series) works because its done behind the scenes in the shadows. Plotting and politicking by very nature is secretive. This dumbo Gove thought he could leak news via his dumb Daily Mail wife and people would trust him. Once he came out in the open and did things in a public manner he was finished. The grassroots who vote for new Conservative leader would never have trusted him.

 

He lost his position in the cabinet and his career is finished....

Edited July 19, 2016 by G_B_

[velu]

7 hours ago, G_B_ said:

This free market access is also bit of a red herring....

 

These are the facts

 

(a) If UK does not get access to the single market, WTO rules apply. Its not as if EU can just randomly stamp anything they want. I read these rates range from 4% for manufactured goods to 32% for wine (which is not really produced in the UK). In the items the UK exports to the European Union the median tariff is about 7%. The drop in the pound has more than taken care of that. Even with the tariffs its actually cheaper to manufacture in the UK now and export to Europe with the tariffs. So long as the pound is in the 1.1-1.2 zone v the Euro tarrifs are not a problem at all.

 

(b) UK imports more than exports to the EU. Once again the fall in the pound is a natural barrier.

 

(c) With regards to the pound. The UK's current account deficit was close to 5% of GDP before the brexit. Infact the imbalance between exports and imports means the pound falling is a good thing. It would have happened anyways. Countries seldom maintain their currency after running years and years of deficits.

 

(d) If the UK can sign free trade agreements with Japan, India, Canada, China and Australia for example. As a block these countries have a bigger GDP than the remaining EU. For example the biggest gainers in an EU-India FTA would be British financial and insurance firms. However the FTA negotiations between EU and India were stalled due to German automakers and pharmaceutical firms. Breaking away from the EU allows the UK to negotiate easily with countries with which there is comparative advantage.

 

Its ridiculous that people are looking at short term gains. It was 40 years since we had the last referendum to enter the single market. The UK has wisely voted to take 2-3 years of pain and detach from the EU and look towards its future. There are more than 37 years to make up for it.

 

 

 

we cant just jump into conclusions and its futile to guess the effects of Brexit .. 

but overwhelmingly majority of the economists are in a view that Britain shot itself 

 

and my opinion about asking people to decide the fate of the country through referendum is really really a stupid move..

guess vast majority of the people wont understand the economic implication

[G_B_]

3 hours ago, velu said:

 

we cant just jump into conclusions and its futile to guess the effects of Brexit .. 

but overwhelmingly majority of the economists are in a view that Britain shot itself 

 

and my opinion about asking people to decide the fate of the country through referendum is really really a stupid move..

guess vast majority of the people wont understand the economic implication

In 1991 most economists had written off India and said the country would collapse under its own weight...so its not as if we need to pay them too much importance. Its fair to say that UK will have weak economic growth in the coming 2-3 years. But so long as free trade links are made with major asian economies IMO UK can swiftly position itself in the world.

 

On issue of referendum, its happens once every 40 years. Last time around it was should UK join free trade area. It was voted in. The elephant in the room is the free movement of people...hard for workers at the lower end of the wage scale to see benefits when they lose out on jobs to eastern European workers and their wages are depressed. 

 

Its ironic that politicians in the UK on the left mostly, talk about reducing inequalities etc. Ultimately even labour markets are affected by supply and demand.

 

The EU was a great concept till 2004. Mostly western european nations all with about similar standards and qualities of life. the problems started happening when the likes of Poland Romania etc were given entry. These nations (a) had a weak currency which meant in nominal terms they could earn 3-4 times in western europe (b) Their quality of life in their home countries was just to low.

 

Problems were further compounded when the 2008 crisis hit. Nations like Greece Portugal Spain Italy  who till that point were generating jobs to keep their local populace from moving in large numbers stopped doing so....that meant you had another wave into places like France UK Germany Netherlands Belgium etc.

 

I think the 2008 crisis to be fair the EU could sustain. But it cannot sustain both aspects. Poor eastern European countries and weak economies in the club med. Added to both are now the wave of people from  Africa and the middle east.

 

I am glad UK pulled out... hope that the referendum vote is taken to its logical conclusion.  UK should fully pull out by 2017.

 

 

 

Edited July 20, 2016 by G_B_

[G_B_]

And i would like to talk about an example,

 

It was about 2006, was in Southampton at that time, a middle class town in southern England. We lived on a street with relatively large houses.

 

A few houses from mine, was rented by a polish family. During the summer months 30 people crammed into this house. The people were paying something like £10 a week in rent. These people worked below minimum wage doing jobs like painting houses, plumbing and small electrical work etc. I think they charged £3 per hour when minimum wage was like £5. Pure cash transactions. 

 

As a result a lot of local painters etc just could not find any work. What was happening above was illegal because you cant pay below minimum wage. But by the time the courts got orders to the renter (who naturally appealed) the summer months were over and a big chunk of the work for the year was finished. I talked to a few of these summer polish workers. They said they earned 80% of their income in these 3 months. They went back to Poland to work on their normal jobs during winter etc. 

 

So how exactly are local people in relatively unskilled jobs meant to compete with this? Its the same with a whole host of self employed professions. Ladies salons are another area where I found a lot of resentment. Once again cheaper eastern European labour undercutting a self employed craftsman. These people understand economics fine. Its just that its a difference between macro and micro economics.

[velu]

38 minutes ago, G_B_ said:

In 1991 most economists had written off India and said the country would collapse under its own weight...

 

On issue of referendum, its happened once every 40 years. Last time around it was should UK join free trade area. It was voted in. The elephant in the room is the free movement of people...

 

 

 

 

there are many instances when economists predicted miserably like sub prime mortgage scenario.. 

i am not betting that Brexit is a bad news , but most probably i am sure that its bad for UK politically ( if scot moves put of UK ) and economically..

 

and for countries with trade deficits currency devaluation is not good ..  for ex:- whenever yen gains nikkei tanks and vice versa ..

though it will make UKs exports become cheaper and competitive , UK should export something which takes advantage of lower pound..

 

i agree that people voted for Brexit for free movemnt of people and if england dont allow free movement people , UK will slowly lose its financial sector , and it will have cascading effect on their economy ..

and it is already obvious that Londons real estate/ housing sector is going to tank ..

 

only obvious  beneficiary is tourism ..anyway lets wait and watch how UK is going to be without scotland  ..