head coach Posted January 25, 2008 Posted January 25, 2008 Australia cannot win from here. India have have effectively taken two whole days to amass a 1st innings score of 463 with Australia commencing their reply on Day 3. Only India can win from here given the time remaining. Bet on India at the bookmakers and you lose only if India get beat. A draw and you'll lose tiny. A win and you'll clean up. The odds are incorrect. You might think a draw to be the most likely but the actual odds should be skewed a lot more in India's favor ! Are you ready to give away your dollars if India lose?
coverpoint Posted January 25, 2008 Posted January 25, 2008 Adelaide : 2003 Adelaide : 2006 Its not the same ... Its going to be a draw here .... we have played out too much time (Aus in 2003 did not) and we dont have the bowling like Aussies of 2006 to win
talksport Posted January 25, 2008 Author Posted January 25, 2008 ^ I know, Just scaring goose before he mortgages his house...
goose Posted January 25, 2008 Posted January 25, 2008 I've just purchased India at 12 pts. The result is 25 pts for a win, 10pts for a draw, and 0 pts for a loss. So... I lose 12 pts times my stake if India lose. I lose 2 pts if India draw. I make 13 pts if India wins. No-brainer !
fineleg Posted January 25, 2008 Posted January 25, 2008 ^^ Goose wont mortgage his house. You cannot rule out what will happen if Aus scores 575-600, and then the match will be wide open even if there is only 1.5 days left.
goose Posted January 25, 2008 Posted January 25, 2008 Australia would need approx 575 at a run rate of no less than 3.75 and India would need to fall for less than 200 2nd time round. All possible I agree. But consider this - should Australia get 575 odd, the odds will still point heavily towards a draw at which point I can choose to close the bet.
fineleg Posted January 25, 2008 Posted January 25, 2008 Yes goose. Agree. Most likely this is a draw.
talksport Posted January 25, 2008 Author Posted January 25, 2008 I am selling Australia @ 9.5 , goose. Will I be OK
goose Posted January 25, 2008 Posted January 25, 2008 The essence of successful betting is to limit the downside risk to something approaching zero while maintaining exposure to the upside no matter how unlikely the upside may seem. It's a wonderful bet.
goose Posted January 25, 2008 Posted January 25, 2008 I am selling Australia @ 9.5 ' date=' goose. Will I be OK[/quote'] Yes that's an almost identical trade, just a tad more aggressive. You're risking a slightly bigger loss should Australia win (15.5) in return for a smaller loss should Australia draw (0.5).
Sachinism Posted January 25, 2008 Posted January 25, 2008 guys remember the adelaide pitch changes after a few days so a win is a big chance for india
coffee_rules Posted January 26, 2008 Posted January 26, 2008 In 2004, Aus had scored 400 on D1 and end of D2, India were 170 odd for 4. That's the reason why India had a lot of time on D4. In 2006, it turned out to be just like this match. On D2, Aus were 28/1. End of D4, Eng were 59/1. On D5 morning they collapsed in 50 overs. Aus just had to score at over 5 an over but just aboyt 160 runs. So, India still have to ensure they play well on D5 if Aus reaches 500+ in I1. If India collapses in I2 like 2004 or 2006, it can still lose. But going by the last 3 or 4 innings, India is not likely to collpase. So, the chances of a Draw or a Indian win is more than a Aussie win.
DesiChap Posted January 26, 2008 Posted January 26, 2008 Pitch has variable bounce on Day 3. No way in hell any team chases 200 on 5th day pitch
Bumper Posted January 26, 2008 Posted January 26, 2008 There is an easier way to lose money. Just go long on any stock in the US & come back to visit your portfolio 6 months later.
Grim Reaper Posted January 26, 2008 Posted January 26, 2008 I won't count India out yet. Aussies have to bat last on the pitch and that may just be the key for us if our bowlers can come through.
Guest Hiten. Posted January 27, 2008 Posted January 27, 2008 BB's Betting Portal (Ind - Aus 4th test) Australia have virtually shut off India in this game. If Australia manages to score another 100-150 runs, there are ONLY two possibilities: draw or aus win. Indian batsmen will come under HEAVY scrutiny to bat out this test match. And we all only what kind of mindset our batsmen carry when they come out to bat for the 2nd time. ODDS from Bet365 Australia 3.75 India 34.00 Draw 1.25 I bet for Draw. ICF 5000. First 5 members who will place their bet (other than draw) are ON.
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