Global GDP shifts in last 50 years

[sandeep]

1 hour ago, Global.Baba said:

Regardless it is still  a win.

 

How is it a "win"?  Just like Pakistan "won" all its wars against India?  

 

Indian economy took a major hit to the growth rate, and what was gained in return?  Its not a "win" by any reasonable metric. 

 

@dial_100  Its not about wanting everything to be done in 4 years.  But 4 years is a good enough amount of time to show tangible progress.  A few milestones.  Why hasn't there been a single SEZ properly launched in 1400 days?  You can compete with China or anyone else if you start working towards it.  Not just by cutting ribbons and making tv ads about "make in India".  And you have no choice  but to compete with China and the rest of the world.  India has been sleeping too long.  And yes its the congress not BJP who's responsible for the decades of losing out.  But why is "not congress" enough to give this current government a free pass on just about everything?  I can't stand the thieves in congress either.  But that doesn't mean that I'll just settle for thieves of a different tribe.  

 

India deserves a more efficient government, and the bitter reality is that the Modi govt could and should have done a lot more than it has in 4 years.  

[Global.Baba]

10 minutes ago, sandeep said:

How is it a "win"? 

Ok I will try to explain without the smart ass retorts.

 

banks and financial institutions are the backbone of a developed economy. You are a smart guy so don’t have to go into whole how a banks success and failure is proportional to economic growth and stability or even collapse.

 

In rural India there was  a concept of the local

money lender or keeping money in safes or in spice boxes. 

 

Now Can you imagine how many people were brought into the banking system albeit by force but in turn also discovered a whole new world new outside the old traditional way of managing finances and credit.

 

If you don’t call that a big win then what are you going to call it?

 

This is not going to reap immediate results but this will result in a whole culture shift in how India will deal with its finances in the future that is going strengthen its banking and financial institutions.

 

Obviously the Bhaaji waala and Autowallah using digital payment methods is a great step forward but still has not caught on at a level where you can call that a massive progress but still it is a pretty big step.

 

However getting all this unaccounted money and tens of thousands of not millions of people in to the banking system is a tremendous step forward. You are underestimating this impact .

[sandeep]

10 minutes ago, Global.Baba said:

Ok I will try to explain without the smart ass retorts.

 

banks and financial institutions are the backbone of a developed economy. You are a smart guy so don’t have to go into whole how a banks success and failure is proportional to economic growth and stability or even collapse.

 

In rural India there was  a concept of the local

money lender or keeping money in safes or in spice boxes. 

 

Now Can you imagine how many people were brought into the banking system albeit by force but in turn also discovered a whole new world new outside the old traditional way of managing finances and credit.

 

If you don’t call that a big win then what are you going to call it?

 

This is not going to reap immediate results but this will result in a whole culture shift in how India will deal with its finances in the future that is going strengthen its banking and financial institutions.

 

Obviously the Bhaaji waala and Autowallah using digital payment methods is a great step forward but still has not caught on at a level where you can call that a massive progress but still it is a pretty big step.

 

However getting all this unaccounted money and tens of thousands of not millions of people in to the banking system is a tremendous step forward. You are underestimating this impact .

Not underestimating it.  Just pointing out that its nowhere near enough to offset the negative impact that we had.  

 

And the increase in banking usage, digital payments etc is quite quantifiable.  By any reasonable metric, the data bears out that such an "impact" is being exaggerated.  

 

Spending 100 bucks and bragging about getting 50 cents back, is just as silly as it sounds.  Maybe its not 50 cents, maybe its 2 bucks.  But that's the cost-benefit analogy here.  

 

To reiterate, I'm no fan of congress etc, and even supported the experiment initially, because I expected the benefits to be higher than it were.  

 

And I'm not completely slamming the Modi govt for it either - they tried an ambitious policy measure, and it failed.  **** happens.  Possible to give them a benefit of doubt on good intentions.  Not against giving them a pass on this.   But my problem is that the govt has been a disappointment across the board in terms of economic progress.  Not just demonetization. 

 

But lets call a spade a *ing spade.   Net net, demonetization was an unambiguous failure.  

Edited November 9, 2018 by sandeep

[mishra]

2 hours ago, Global.Baba said:

Ok I will try to explain without the smart ass retorts.

 

banks and financial institutions are the backbone of a developed economy. You are a smart guy so don’t have to go into whole how a banks success and failure is proportional to economic growth and stability or even collapse.

 

In rural India there was  a concept of the local

money lender or keeping money in safes or in spice boxes. 

 

Now Can you imagine how many people were brought into the banking system albeit by force but in turn also discovered a whole new world new outside the old traditional way of managing finances and credit.

 

If you don’t call that a big win then what are you going to call it?

 

This is not going to reap immediate results but this will result in a whole culture shift in how India will deal with its finances in the future that is going strengthen its banking and financial institutions.

 

Obviously the Bhaaji waala and Autowallah using digital payment methods is a great step forward but still has not caught on at a level where you can call that a massive progress but still it is a pretty big step.

 

However getting all this unaccounted money and tens of thousands of not millions of people in to the banking system is a tremendous step forward. You are underestimating this impact .

There is something more than that. Someone has to type pages of literature to make common man understand what banking is and how far behind India is.

So this bit can not be taught on forum. Person has to give some time himself to understand what  demonitization  achieved or what bank account to everyone will achieve.

We may not be too far behind in science and technology vis a vis west but banking and economics, India is atleast 25-50 years behind.

 

Today, China is able to finance BRI because of banking. Else its population would have continued working till death on factory floor.

 

Edited November 9, 2018 by mishra

[dial_100]

4 hours ago, sandeep said:

How is it a "win"?  Just like Pakistan "won" all its wars against India?  

 

Indian economy took a major hit to the growth rate, and what was gained in return?  Its not a "win" by any reasonable metric. 

 

@dial_100  Its not about wanting everything to be done in 4 years.  But 4 years is a good enough amount of time to show tangible progress.  A few milestones.  Why hasn't there been a single SEZ properly launched in 1400 days?  You can compete with China or anyone else if you start working towards it.  Not just by cutting ribbons and making tv ads about "make in India".  And you have no choice  but to compete with China and the rest of the world.  India has been sleeping too long.  And yes its the congress not BJP who's responsible for the decades of losing out.  But why is "not congress" enough to give this current government a free pass on just about everything?  I can't stand the thieves in congress either.  But that doesn't mean that I'll just settle for thieves of a different tribe.  

 

India deserves a more efficient government, and the bitter reality is that the Modi govt could and should have done a lot more than it has in 4 years.  

There is no denying that our current system, all the major civil services, administrative divisions are corrupt and defunct to the core. It is lot easy to sit on the fence or in the comfort of our living rooms and criticize. Oppositions and some arm chair critics are holding entire BJP against few incompetent in the lot. Having said that those who are capable are certainly doing their best to bring about the change we want to see.

 

The kind of SEZ we expect needs significant investment and government is certainly working towards it. Make in India is not mere a PR campaign but there are many initiatives undertaken to promote make in india. Again same issue, we need massive investment and we need some major technologies we currently do not own or possess. 

 

Bullet is not mere status symbol but we will gain lot of expertise in that area. Transportation is very critical and we cannot afford more aviation traffic knowing the kind of volume we have. We have to look for alternate faster transportation. I think they have recently introduced Train-18/20 and they are looking to work towards further enhancing it. There is freight corridor launched by previous governments which is very critical to relieve lot of pressure from our current infrastructure is also expected to be finished in next 2-3 years. 

Lot of space and defense related initiatives are taken and they will show results in next few years. nobody on this forum thinks that BJP is perfect either but they are all we got which is 100x better than the rest.