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randomGuy

The world will look like a vastly different place and with vastly different priorities and spending patterns

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Demographics govern everything.

 

TFR of the developed world and increasingly the developing world has plummeted. Let me take the example of South Korea

Total births in 2021 = 2,60,000

Total births in 2012 = 4,84,000

https://www.statista.com/statistics/641595/south-korea-birth-number/

 

Total population after 80 years = all the babies born in next 80 years (as all the people alive today will be dead, considering life expectancy of 80 years)

 

All the babies born in next 80 years

= Sum of the geometric progression , a(1-r^n)/(1-r)

a is babies born in 2021, r is rate of de-growth , let's say optimistic 2% annual) (although de-growth has been much Higher than 2% annual from 2009-2021), n is simply 80 years.

Plugging the values in the formula we get 260000*40 = 1.04 crore as the population of South Korea in year 2101.

 

Current population = 5.2 crore , so the population becomes 1/5th

 

Basically, economies will plunge, dependency ratio (old people as percentage of total) will explode, country will have zero resources for anything except healthcare(no defence expenditure, no manpower for wars etc)

 

The same is going to be the case in Russia, china(it has been mentioned that china will have less population than Pakistan), Japan and Europe.

 

 

 

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22 hours ago, randomGuy said:

Demographics govern everything.

 

TFR of the developed world and increasingly the developing world has plummeted. Let me take the example of South Korea

Total births in 2021 = 2,60,000

Total births in 2012 = 4,84,000

https://www.statista.com/statistics/641595/south-korea-birth-number/

 

Total population after 80 years = all the babies born in next 80 years (as all the people alive today will be dead, considering life expectancy of 80 years)

 

All the babies born in next 80 years

= Sum of the geometric progression , a(1-r^n)/(1-r)

a is babies born in 2021, r is rate of de-growth , let's say optimistic 2% annual) (although de-growth has been much Higher than 2% annual from 2009-2021), n is simply 80 years.

Plugging the values in the formula we get 260000*40 = 1.04 crore as the population of South Korea in year 2101.

 

Current population = 5.2 crore , so the population becomes 1/5th

 

Basically, economies will plunge, dependency ratio (old people as percentage of total) will explode, country will have zero resources for anything except healthcare(no defence expenditure, no manpower for wars etc)

 

The same is going to be the case in Russia, china(it has been mentioned that china will have less population than Pakistan), Japan and Europe.

 

 

 

the analysis is accurate enough, but it supposes a continuous exponential decline. if govt incentivizes babies enough, the trend may reverse.

 

besides, some parts of africa are procreating enough to fill the world and they may travel to other countries as cheap labor

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@straighttalk @Vijy

Valid points on resource abundance, government incentives and immigration. Europe has been maintaining stable population primarily due to immigration because the annual deaths greatly exceed annual births... Russia, Japan, Korea do not have such large scale immigration policy yet...Korea infact has TFR of below 1. Hence the births fell from 484000 to 260000 in 9 years, annual compounded decline of 6.7%....(from (260/484)^1/9)

 

But can't be this pessimistic for 80 years period, I took 2% decline as that will roughly correspond to 1.5 TFR (total fertility rate) , could share the calculation if you say. 1.5 could be the long term steady state TFR that countries could settle at even after govt incentives in some cases.

 

 

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Muslims keep breeding heavily. Here in the UK each Muslim woman has a minimum of 3 children, it's the same number in India. 

 

Anyway robots are going to take over this century, so having a lesser population may be fine. All manual labour will be done by them. 

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