Guest Gunner Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 Hmmm' date=' interesting. I’d like to you to list the factors based on which on which you predicted the crash in Dubai and why you felt it would happen when it happened. [/quote'] There was a clear asset bubble being created in Dubai from 2004 onwards. If you are familiar with the market you would know how banks due to excess liquidity were handing out huge loans to various people working in Dubai which was beyond their repayment capacity. This was constantly fuelling asset price increases which were not warranted by any fundamentals. If you notice the Dubai real estate prices + rentals during this period you will know what I mean. Secondly, the stock market in the GCC region was so heavily levered at one point in time that it was almost like going to a casino. The result is for all to see in the form of non performing assets on the balance sheet of most of the banks there. All these factors are easily verifiable. I have been around long enough to know the greed-crash cycle and recognize it. Cashed out? You mean you sold all your stocks before the markets tanked? What sector? Do you know how those stocks are performing now? I had shares in banks, telecom, auto and steel. I sold all of them. Some are doing better than the price at which I sold like Bharti etc. But I had picked those shares in 2003 July, so I made a killing anyway. And I don’t get what you mean by the long-dollar? Are you saying you invested in both the $$ and the Gold? In between March - April 2008, I sold euros and took delivery of dollars at average price of approx 1,51 to the Euro. I cashed it in Nov-Dec 2008 netting about 17% gain. I bought gold everytime it dipped to 875 and sold it betwen 925 to 940 several times in 2008. First of all' date=' there was no real-estate ‘crash’ in India. The prices only flat-lined for a while. So, to call it a crash is a gross-exaggeration. [/quote'] Dude the prices in Bangalore in my area dipped by almost Rs. 2000 per sqft in the last 24 months, to me that is a crash. I don't know about you. I don’t trust any economist, which is why I am a bit skeptical on a recovery, even when a big proportion of economists are saying the recession is over. Living through the worst economic crisis since the great depression has made me realize that most economic logic that is being flaunted around these days are not even worth the paper they’re printed on. Btw, since you sound so confident on your economic prediction skills, would it be ok if I seek your ‘predictions’ on upcoming economic cycles? It will be interesting to see your take on things. Anyways, this is about your GMAT. So, don’t want to digress too much. Where did you get that line - "the greatest economic crisis since the great depression", if not from the economists you so seem to loathe. :winky: Dude, I didn't give you any economic gyaan. You started this discussion. They are my hunches and I would keep them to myself. I have my way of operating on my economic belief and you are welcome to yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flamy Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 ^^ :blink: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ludhianvi Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 I thought CA's dont gain much with MBA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gambit Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 GMAT average in ISB India is 790/800. This is 50 points clear of any other B-school in the world. So I am going to pay more and study abroad I guess. :P Umm, no. It's about 710. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Gunner Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 I thought CA's dont gain much with MBA? You gain network and connections. Second, an MBA is a very interesting experience and lastly I am trying to make a career transition so this might help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ram Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 There was a clear asset bubble being created in Dubai from 2004 onwards. If you are familiar with the market you would know how banks due to excess liquidity were handing out huge loans to various people working in Dubai which was beyond their repayment capacity. This was constantly fuelling asset price increases which were not warranted by any fundamentals. If you notice the Dubai real estate prices + rentals during this period you will know what I mean. Secondly, the stock market in the GCC region was so heavily levered at one point in time that it was almost like going to a casino. The result is for all to see in the form of non performing assets on the balance sheet of most of the banks there. All these factors are easily verifiable. I have been around long enough to know the greed-crash cycle and recognize it. Fair enough, that sounds like a reasonable explanation. I had shares in banks, telecom, auto and steel. I sold all of them. Some are doing better than the price at which I sold like Bharti etc. But I had picked those shares in 2003 July, so I made a killing anyway. So the stocks which you sold are still performing well, even after the ‘downturn’. Sure, you made some profits but it looks like they’re independent of the ripple effects of the downturn. In between March - April 2008, I sold euros and took delivery of dollars at average price of approx 1,51 to the Euro. I cashed it in Nov-Dec 2008 netting about 17% gain. I bought gold everytime it dipped to 875 and sold it betwen 925 to 940 several times in 2008. Hmm. O.K. So you seem to have made money by betting both on the dollar and gold, which is interesting because both of them generally have an inversely proportional relationship. We all know that inflation causes rise in gold prices and fall in value of currency. The continued strength of the dollar through the economic crisis of last year and early this year has baffled people. I’d like to know what made you bet for the dollar in mid 2008 and bet against the Euro in the same period. Dude the prices in Bangalore in my area dipped by almost Rs. 2000 per sqft in the last 24 months, to me that is a crash. I don't know about you. A crash is when the entire real-estate market comes crumbling down, not when some isolated over-priced markets show some volatility. I have been following the real-estate market in India right through the downturn and there was no ‘crash’. Just some price correction in certain sectors of the market (commercial space etc.) Almost all the properties bought and sold in the vicinity of the place where I live in Chennai had no significant drops in price value. Where did you get that line - "the greatest economic crisis since the great depression", if not from the economists you so seem to loathe. :winky: Well, there are economists I don’t trust (the mainstream guys) and the ones I do. And both of them say this is the greatest economic crisis since the great depression. So, I am inclined to believe them on this one. Dude, I didn't give you any economic gyaan. You started this discussion. They are my hunches and I would keep them to myself. I have my way of operating on my economic belief and you are welcome to yours. Obviously, I am not going ask to you share your knowledge for free either. Just wondering how someone could sound so confident on an issue that has baffled so many people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Gunner Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 So the stocks which you sold are still performing well, even after the ‘downturn’. Sure, you made some profits but it looks like they’re independent of the ripple effects of the downturn. Not all, I said clearly some stocks. Bharti is a good example of a share which has gone up (MTN news) but I bought it at IPO at 45 Rs, when no one was willing to touch that stock in 2002. So I had a four digit IRR. :haha: Hmm. O.K. So you seem to have made money by betting both on the dollar and gold' date=' which is interesting because both of them generally have an inversely proportional relationship. We all know that inflation causes rise in gold prices and fall in value of currency. The continued strength of the dollar through the economic crisis of last year and early this year has baffled people. I’d like to know what made you bet for the dollar in mid 2008 and bet against the Euro in the same period. [/quote'] Ahh, you want to know the secret behind the long dollar. TBH, not a single economic fundamental supported the long dollar strategy. The dollar simply should not have strengthened. However the Euro had also appreciated from approx 1 €/0,90USD in 2001 to about 1€ / 1,54USD. A gain of 70%. Profit taking had to happen. Secondly the eurozone was beginning to have problems too, there was already problems in southern europe and the baltics (which btw have not gone away). I would say the dollar went up simply since it couldn't fall further. The rise of both gold and dollar simultaneously has only proved that the premier currency of the world is the USD, all the talk of replacing it is mere hogwash. I don't entirely agree that gold rise should affect currencies. It really depends on reallocation between asset classes. If you were to sell real estate to buy gold then the chances of pressure on the currency are lower. Ideally I would say that people supported a two pronged startegy of being overweight in USD and gold. A crash is when the entire real-estate market comes crumbling down, not when some isolated over-priced markets show some volatility. I have been following the real-estate market in India right through the downturn and there was no ‘crash’. Just some price correction in certain sectors of the market (commercial space etc.) Almost all the properties bought and sold in the vicinity of the place where I live in Chennai had no significant drops in price value. Perhaps. I can relate only to the Bangalore market and the prices are definitely significantly lower now than in 2007. Obviously' date=' I am not going ask to you share your knowledge for free either. Just wondering how someone could sound so confident on an issue that has baffled so many people.[/quote'] I have always trusted my natural instincts. My views are almost always contrarian to the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jusarrived Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 IT + Indian , I hear it gets twice difficult Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macj Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 MBA is a waste of money, its nothing but a glorified job search. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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