Sachin's centuries and India's defeats.

[vaibhav_delhi]

I have already replied to post#46 ( which again has flawed stats ) ... but What is the point of your stats then if you are now telling me that SRT is not to blame for the losses ?

Nopes...Stats are NOT flawed and I had told in the beginning itself if you read my post 27, 33, 51 etc that I am not pointing fingers...

[Guest BossBhai]

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[vaibhav_delhi]

If you insist that the stats are not flawed then I suppose you dont find anything wrong in that D/L calc that was the main culprit for one of the losses ... Right ? And if you are not pointing fingers what are you exactly doing ? Could you please elaborate because I cant figure out what you are trying to do here.

Just copy-pasting stuff frm previous posts again for you: It is normal for a fan to expect team win 80-85% of the times when someone scores a ton coz a Ton is a big thing. This is not happening certainly in sachin's case. That stat was a mere reflection of that fact. Seeing that Stat, a fan cant feel confident about team's chances when Sachin scores a ton.

[Asim]

I sincerely hope that your wish comes true and Sachin hits a 100 against Pak in this world cup if the two meet :smiley:

Sachins bigg 100 with 9/29 would be ideal :two_thumbs_up:0

[Guest BossBhai]

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[Sachin=GOD]

Just copy-pasting stuff frm previous posts again for you: It is normal for a fan to expect team win 80-85% of the times when someone scores a ton coz a Ton is a big thing. This is not happening certainly in sachin's case. That stat was a mere reflection of that fact. Seeing that Stat, a fan cant feel confident about team's chances when Sachin scores a ton. Sachin scoring a ton DOES NOT increase Indias chances of winning by much.

Answer these questions - how is it the fault of a batsman if the bowlers don't bowl well after the batsman has scored a 100? or how is it the fault of batsman if after he scores a 100, provides a solid opening to the team and then gets out and the rest of the batting follows him in a space of 29 runs?? or how is it the fault of a 37 year old man who, after scoring a 100, is throwing himself all around the field in order to save each possible run but others like Munaf/Nehra etc are fielding as if a few extra runs given in the field don't matter at all??? or how is it the fault of a batsman if the bowlers give away 350 against Aus (Hydesrabad ODI) but still that man goes out and makes 175 runs, gets out with 18 runs needed for victory and the rest of the batsmen cannot make those runs????

[asterix]

This is what happens when you argue with kids.. He ij inspired by a Paki blog too..Just because his beloved Dhoni was criticised..

[Sachin=GOD]

Just copy-pasting stuff frm previous posts again for you: It is normal for a fan to expect team win 80-85% of the times when someone scores a ton coz a Ton is a big thing. This is not happening certainly in sachin's case. That stat was a mere reflection of that fact. Seeing that Stat, a fan cant feel confident about team's chances when Sachin scores a ton.

One more thing - if, after all that Goody has done for Indian cricket over the past 21 years, a "fan" cannot feel confident of India's victory when he scores 100 then that person does not deserve to be called a "fan".

[vaibhav_delhi]

If you insist that the stats are not flawed then I suppose you dont find anything wrong in that D/L calc that was the main culprit for one of the losses ... Right ?

No, I dont find anything particularly wrong in D/L method. Further confirmation of my observation, pls have a look: http://www.cricbeat.com/2011/03/sachin-tendulkars-century-jinx-why-does.html

[vaibhav_delhi]

He ij inspired by a Paki blog too..Just because his beloved Dhoni was criticised..

Nopes, Its my own observation. If you are talking abt following article, I happened to read it only just now (10 minutes back and thats when I posted it): http://www.cricbeat.com/2011/03/sachin-tendulkars-century-jinx-why-does.html

[Laaloo]

Take Kenya and BD out, india wins only 63% of the matches when sachin scores a Ton against top teams. It should be arnd 85% for a hundred to be really useful.... Total hundreds against top teams(38): http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/player/35320.html?class=2;filter=advanced;opposition=1;opposition=2;opposition=3;opposition=4;opposition=5;opposition=7;opposition=8;orderby=start;runsmin1=100;runsval1=runs;template=results;type=batting;view=match Hundreds in a winning cause(24): http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/player/35320.html?class=2;filter=advanced;opposition=1;opposition=2;opposition=3;opposition=4;opposition=5;opposition=7;opposition=8;orderby=start;result=1;runsmin1=100;runsval1=runs;template=results;type=batting;view=match Indias Win percentage against top 7 team in last 5 years in 56%. http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?class=2;filter=advanced;opposition=1;opposition=2;opposition=3;opposition=4;opposition=5;opposition=7;opposition=8;orderby=won;result=1;result=2;result=3;spanmin1=05+Jan+2006;spanval1=span;team=6;template=results;type=team Hence, Sachin scoring a ton DOES NOT increase Indias chances of winning by much.

When you say a fan can't feel confident when about India's victory when Sachin scores a century, I'll accept that. But what do you mean when you say "ence, Sachin scoring a ton DOES NOT increase Indias chances of winning by much.". How does that even make sense? You're acting as if he's scoring hundreds at a SR of 70 or something. When one of your openers is making hundreds at a strike rate of more than a 100, than that should increase the winning chances of the team.

[ganeshran]

No, I dont find anything particularly wrong in D/L method. Further confirmation of my observation, pls have a look: http://www.cricbeat.com/2011/03/sachin-tendulkars-century-jinx-why-does.html

LOL seriously, has the author of that blog post ever studied statistics in school? He is comparing Sachin's record with players who have scored 1/4th the number of centuries. As the number of the centuries increase (and they were never able to) , the more the chances of their winning percentage coming closer to the overall winning percentage of the team. No one, not even Sachin can single handledly improve the statistical record of 10 others in the team over a period of 21 years.

[Guest BossBhai]

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[vaibhav_delhi]

Lol ... that explains a lot ... if you see no problem in D/L reducing a target of 310 to 113 of 20 overs and most importantly somehow factoring it into the SRT scores 100 we lose argument ... and then you wonder why people are giving you a hard time.

That hundred WAS in a losing cause. And like rest of the 100s, it wasnt sachins fault....

but that article is a finger pointing exercise at SRT ... but you said you arent pointing any fingers.

Nopes, its not finger pointing , just presenting facts, nothing wrong in that.

"This article and stats are not meant to degrade Sachin Tendulkar in any way, these are just stats showing one bitter-reality of Tendulkar’s career."

And its merely digging up whats already there in the record books.

[Guest BossBhai]

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[vaibhav_delhi]

LOL seriously, has the author of that blog post ever studied statistics in school? He is comparing Sachin's record with players who have scored 1/4th the number of centuries. As the number of the centuries increase (and they were never able to) , the more the chances of their winning percentage coming closer to the overall winning percentage of the team. No one, not even Sachin can single handledly improve the statistical record of 10 others in the team over a period of 21 years.

Do you mean that as the number of Tons grow, the percentage of Tons scored in Victories decreases??

[Sachin=GOD]

That hundred WAS in a losing cause. And like rest of the 100s' date= it wasnt sachins fault.... .

Hence, Sachin scoring a ton DOES NOT increase Indias chances of winning by much.

you keep on contradicting yourself throughout this thread :hysterical:

[The Outsider]

Do you mean that as the number of Tons grow' date=' the percentage of Tons scored in Victories decreases??[/quote'] Isn't it obvious to you that as the number of centuries a player scores increases the percentage in wins will asymptote to the overall winning percentage of his team? If a hypothetical batsman scores a hundred in every match, his percentage of hundreds in wins is going to be exactly the same as his team's overall percentage. Jason Gillespie is not a bigger match winner or greater batsman than Ponting because 100% of his centuries have been match winning.

[Sachin=GOD]

Nopes, you are getting it wrong. (Sehwag+Ganguly) 12 Tons less than Sachins. It means that Sehwag n Ganguly are scoring 80's n 90's (which we dont know tht how many of them result in indian wins or not). Sachin is going on from those 80's, 90's to score Tons, which are resulting surely in indian losses more than they should in an average case (for other batsmen).

what about the countless 80s and 90s that Goddy has scored (which, again, we dont know tht how many of them result in indian wins or not) :hmmm: Sehwag and Ganguly score 80s and 90s and they are to be included in this analysis/comparison by you but in Goddy's case its only the 100s that are to be counted. Dhnaya ho bhai tum :adore: :adore:

[Mariyam]

Wonderful thread. And some good well thought out points from both the sides. Here are my 2 cents: Centuries can't be tied in with a player being a match winner or not. Centuries are just a number. Sachin may score a match winning 70 in 30 balls while chasing a target of 120. And so on. A matchwinner's greatness should be measured in his moments of magic on the field. No stat can capture that essence. But if we have to rely on stats, here is a suggestion: 1. Set a time period. Last 5 years, last 10 years or from the time Sachin started playing. 2. In this period, note down the team total and Sachin's score in every ODI played in which he got to bat. 3. For each match, compute % of team runs that Sachin scores. 4. Take an average of all these % of team runs scored by Sachin. 4 Do the same for the matches that India wins. Now, if we find that Sachin's % contribution to the team total is more when India has won, then we can say that when Sachin contributes better than his average relative to the team, the team has a better chance of winning. For example, if in the last 5 years Sachins average is 25% of team runs scored, but in the games India won it is 35%, then maybe we can conclude that he is a match winner. Right? How much more that % of team runs should be between the overall matches and the games India won is up for debate. How is this for an idea? PS: Don't bring your knives out at me. I'm pretty poor at maths and all this stuff. If you don't think it makes sense, just ignore it. :P

Anyone wants to do this exercise for me? Thanks :icflove: