The Narendra Modi thread

[Sachin=GOD]

Doing the Modi math Ashutosh Varshney : Thu Jun 27 2013, 07:02 hrs

The numbers don't add up, without a pooling of anti-Congress votes Now that Nitish Kumar has left the NDA, the scenarios for the next general elections are acquiring greater clarity. The key question is: Can a Narendra Modi-led BJP win power without broad-based political alliances? During 1998-2004, Nitish Kumar (JD-U), Mamata Banerjee (TMC), Naveen Patnaik (BJD) and Chandrababu Naidu (TDP) used to be part of the NDA. Kumar left recently, the other three some years back. Can Banerjee, Patnaik or Naidu somehow return to the NDA? As I argue later, something like that may well be necessary. Banerjee is trying to create an enduring social bloc in West Bengal against the CPM. Without Muslims, constituting nearly a quarter of the total state electorate, a long-lasting base against the left is virtually inconceivable. An alliance with Modi, it follows, is improbable. Patnaik's objections to Modi have already been strongly articulated. The TDP's situation is somewhat unclear, but its decision may not matter all that much if its share of seats does not significantly rise. The TDP won 29 seats in 1999, but it shrank to 5-6 seats in 2004 and 2009. Beyond the Akali Dal, Shiv Sena and the AGP — all small, even miniscule — the AIADMK is perhaps the only substantial regional party likely to support the BJP. At the time of the 1998 and 1999 elections, the NDA was a coalition of 13 to 17 parties (rising to over 20 after the elections). The pooling of anti-Congress votes was so effective that it allowed the NDA to come to power. That capacious network has all but collapsed. Advani's critique of Modi is, in part, about the pooling effect. A Vajpayee-like coalition building, he believes, is necessary to defeat the UPA, and Modi's unacceptability beyond a few parties makes such pooling impossible. Against Advani's view, a new trope has started emerging in BJP politics. Many believe that even if a broad-based political alliance cannot be constructed before the elections, a post-election alliance is perfectly within the realm of possibility, assuming a Modi-led BJP repeats its 1998 or 1999 performance, winning 180-plus seats instead of its current 117. Modi, they think, can make that happen. The regional parties, then, will ally with the BJP, for the BJP will have the best chance of coming to power. Can Modi's leadership make it possible for the BJP to win 180-plus seats, or something close to that, in 2014? What are the odds? When the BJP won 182 seats in 1998 and 1999, it captured 25.6 and 23.7 per cent of the national vote respectively. In 2009, it won a mere 18.8 per cent (and 116 seats). Though, under certain exceptional circumstances, one can show that a party can win 180 seats in India's Parliament with only 18-20 per cent of the national vote, a more reasonable assumption is that 24-25 per cent of the national vote will, in all probability, be required for 180-plus seats. In short, Modi needs to raise the BJP's vote by 5-6 percentage points. In 2014, the size of the electorate is expected to be a little over 800 million. Assuming a 60-62 per cent turnout, we will have roughly 500 million voters. A 5-6 per cent increase in the BJP's vote essentially means that Modi will have to deliver an additional 25-30 million votes . A shift of roughly similar percentages, if not absolute magnitudes, has taken place in India's electoral history four times: twice in favour of the Congress — from 1977 to 1980, and from 1980 to 1984; and twice for the BJP — from 1989 to 1991, and from 1996 to 1998. In principle, therefore, the possibilities of a huge Modi uplift cannot be ruled out. However, some complications are worthy of note. In three out of these four instances, the circumstances were exceptional, meaning not easily replicable. The vast 1977 dip in Congress vote was due to the Emergency; and in 1984, the Congress was an immense beneficiary of Indira Gandhi's assassination. The 1989 to 1991 jump in the BJP's vote was mostly due to the Ayodhya movement. A return of the Ayodhya fervour is unlikely today. The most relevant comparison is with the great increase in the BJP's vote from 1996 to 1998. What was that on account of? The Ayodhya movement was past its peak, and the vote share of the BJP had barely risen between the two previous elections, 1991 and 1996. There is no escape from the conclusion that the vast increase in the BJP's 1998 vote was in large part due to alliances. A lot of the anti-Congress vote that would have gone to other parties landed in the BJP's basket because those parties had entered an alliance with the BJP. This is the basis for Advani's view of the political possibilities today. Modi, to him, is not a maker of broad alliances a la Vajpayee; he breaks them. But no ambitious leader has ever believed that history is fully constraining. Trailblazers make history. They are not its prisoners. It is clear that Modi feels he belongs to the history-defying category of leaders. But 25-30 million additional votes? Can a defiance of history produce that? Modi's base beyond Gujarat is the urban middle class. His record on Hindu-Muslim relations might have repelled allies, but for many urban Indians, that is not the main issue. They are drawn to his Gujarat economic model, which has delivered a nearly 10 per cent annual growth rate for a decade, an achievement of Chinese proportions. The fact that Gujarat's health and education indicators are mediocre does not dampen their enthusiasm. And to a large extent, they are right. A 10 per cent growth rate maintained for so long is almost certain to lift social indicators before long, and also attack poverty systematically, as it did in China. The problems, however, are three fold. First, beyond Gujarat, the rural folk, who still determine India's election results, have not heard of the Gujarat model. And it is virtually impossible to turn rural constituencies around in a matter of months. It is a longer political project. Second, it is also not clear that, beyond Gujarat, the urban poor share the urban middle class passion for Modi. And the numbers of the urban poor are substantial. Third, in southern and eastern India, even in cities, the BJP's presence is minimal. In Bangalore, where I am currently based, Modi's popularity appears to be confined primarily to the IT sector, the institutions of higher education and the malls. In Chennai, Trivandrum, Cochin, Hyderabad — to name a few other southern cities — the story is worse. On the whole, southern and eastern India account for roughly 40 per cent of India's parliamentary seats. With the partial exception of Karnataka, the BJP's presence in these two parts of India is slender, and Modi's charisma unfelt. Of the 500 million likely voters in 2014, only 150 million will be urban, and of these, only 90 million are in the west and north. The BJP has already won a lot of these votes in the previous elections. Can Modi really mobilise an additional 20-25 million votes from this northern and western pool, assuming he can get 5 million more elsewhere? The order is monumentally tall. Advani may well have the last laugh next year unless a broad anti-Congress alliance can be constructed. With urban India rising, Modi's power to pull votes could be greater in the 2019 or 2024 elections, but might fall well short in 2014. The writer is Sol Goldman Professor of International Studies and the Social Sciences at Brown University, where he also directs the India Initiative at the Watson Institute. He is a contributing editor for 'The Indian Express'

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/doing-the-modi-math/1134243/0 brilliant analysis :hatsoff:

[seedhi]

BJP loses in 2009 = People reject Advani; BJP loses in state elections 2013 = People reject Advani + Modi + Sushma + Jaitley. Waah re waah!

It was you who brought in Modi into Karnataka state elections as if that was a referendum on him. It is actually quite simple - the BJP fought the 2009 elections with Advani as their face, the people were promised Advani as PM and they rejected. In the Karanataka state elections the people were promised Jagdish Shettar as the CM, people rejected. They were not promised Modi or Advani in Karnataka elections. All the elections that the BJP has fought with Modi as the declared leader, it has won.

The success signs we're looking for is election records at the national level. The "at least state elections" are state elections after all - and has little or no bearing considering the pretext we're talking about. Advani has served as Home Minister and Deputy Prime Minister too.

Yes, and Advani fought the 2009 elections based on his performance and people rejected him.

The governance you mention is also under credibility threat - details are emerging and soon we would know how much of it is governance and how much of it is not. Like a wise man once said , BS can take you to the top but won't let you stay there.

Sure you can have any opinion about his governance record. At the state level it has been enough to secure nearly 2/3 majority in three consecutive elections. It has yet to be tested at the national level. On the other hand Advani's governance record has been tested at the national level and rejected by the electorate.

[Crookbond]

Read the Human Development Report: http://www.pratirodh.com/pdf/human_development_report2011.pdf Gujarat is a middle of the road state in all respects and has shown little or no improvement under Modi on practically all parameters considered in the report. All this super development under Modi raag is a big dhakosala.

I have read most parts of this report and the numbers simply do not add up for the "Vibrant Gujarat" model in some places. Modi for me is just another run of the mill politician with slightly better skills and a power hungry mind. Of course, he sells some brand of communal policies which favor a certain section and we will have such people rooting for him.

[Crookbond]

It was you who brought in Modi into Karnataka state elections as if that was a referendum on him. It is actually quite simple - the BJP fought the 2009 elections with Advani as their face, the people were promised Advani as PM and they rejected. In the Karanataka state elections the people were promised Jagdish Shettar as the CM, people rejected. They were not promised Modi or Advani in Karnataka elections. All the elections that the BJP has fought with Modi as the declared leader, it has won. Yes, and Advani fought the 2009 elections based on his performance and people rejected him. Sure you can have any opinion about his governance record. At the state level it has been enough to secure nearly 2/3 majority in three consecutive elections. It has yet to be tested at the national level. On the other hand Advani's governance record has been tested at the national level and rejected by the electorate.

I see where you are coming on from the state election part and I see some merit in your argument. However, I would still disagree that Modi is better than X as Modi has no national record.

[Crookbond]

Doing the Modi math Ashutosh Varshney : Thu Jun 27 2013, 07:02 hrs http://www.indianexpress.com/news/doing-the-modi-math/1134243/0 brilliant analysis :hatsoff:

The writer is Sol Goldman Professor of International Studies and the Social Sciences at Brown University, where he also directs the India Initiative at the Watson Institute. 'pshecular' writer :headshake:

[Sachin=GOD]

Why voters are poles apart on Narendra Modi Gurcharan Das 12 May 2013, 05:33 AM IST

The sudden ascent of stocky, 62-year-old Narendra Modi as a serious contender for the nation’s leadership has taken people by surprise. The general election is still a year away but the average, open-minded, middle-of-the-road Indian wonders how to think about the polarizing chief minister of Gujarat. Either you love him or hate him, which is precisely why one must not react with a kneejerk but try and go beyond the shallow surface of a flawed but remarkable human being. India today is discontented and troubled as a result of corruption scandals, high inflation, declining growth and a government in denial. Sick of the drift and paralysis, people desperately seek a strong leader, and insistently ask if Narendra Modi might be the one. Clearly, he has proven the ability to build a vibrant economy and usher in corrupt-free governance. Could he be India’s best chance to ungum the bureaucracy, tackle corrup tion and restore the economy to health? But Modi also has a clear downside: he is dictatorial with communal tendencies. Should one risk India’s precious secular and collaborative traditions for the sake of good governance and prosperity? It is a dreadful moral dilemma between equally impor tant values — a classic dharma-sankat. No Indian leader in recent times has spoken with such passion about ‘governance’ and ‘development’. His talk of ‘less government and more governance’ resonates with the aspiring young middle-class. He has changed the language of politics with words like outcomes, accountability and unbureaucratic service delivery. Visit a municipal office, he says, and you will only see clerks; but an urbanizing nation needs technical people to solve sanitation, transport and infrastructure problems; so, he hired engineer interns and gave them an opportunity to solve municipal problems in Gujarat. Implementation is his obsession and he compares two canals of equal size — the Sujalam Sufalam Yojana, which he completed in two years while the old Sardar Sarovar canal from Nehru’s days is still incomplete. Every country must protect its environment he argues, but no one stops 750 industrial projects and delays them for years. By covering Gujarat’ canals with solar panels, he is conserving water and has made Gujarat a model of solar power. In dia’s schools face a serious problem of quality, and the Right to Education Act refuses to measure outcomes; so, he plans to make Gujarat’s schools accountable through continuous, quality testing He inspires young people, saying ‘IT + IT = IT (Indian Talent + Information Technology = India’ Tomorrow.) Not since Jawaharlal Nehru has politician given people such a sense of possibilities. They see in Modi an underdog, a David challenging the Goliath of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. But every temptation has a price. Modi is considered anti-Muslim and many cannot forgive him for the events in Gujarat in 2002. He may not have actively connived in the violence, they say, but why doesn’t he show remorse? After all, it happened under his watch, and he is responsible. By polarizing the country, people fear he might alienate India’ Muslims and this might enhance the risk of domes tic terror. The temptation to vote for prosperity and good governance must be tempered by the imperative to keep the nation united and secular. Those who dismiss the middle-class’s impact on elections forget that a new generation of voters has joined the middle-class after 1991, and it is in a rage over violence against women and children and longs for a leader who is tough against crime. But it also does not want an Indira Gandhi who will subvert the institutions of democracy. Modi is not likeable — Rahul Gandhi is far more affable — but people today seek an effective, not a friendly leader. India’s dilemma is that Modi is the most likely candidate to provide corruption-free governance and restore the economy to high growth, create masses of jobs and lift millions into the middle-class. But his communal past is a threat. In the end, each voter will have to choose in 2014 between several imperfect candidates and make a trade-off. Those who think corrupt free governance and prosperity are more important will vote for Modi. Those who worry about communal harmony and domestic security will not vote for him. It is an unhappy but unambiguous choice.

http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/men-and-ideas/entry/why-voters-are-poles-apart-on-narendra-modi

[Sachin=GOD]

The paucity of hope Pritish Nandy 07 July 2013, 11:31 AM IST

Over the past weeks I have read many informed and a few silly panegyrics on how Narendra Modi is all set to sweep the coming polls. Most of them are blogs and posts on the net, where Modi clearly has his largest constituency. If social media is any indication, Modi has already won the polls; we are wasting our time discussing his chances. In fact, my last post spoke of precisely this phenomenon: Modi and his visceral hold on the nation’s young. I went to college briefly, at the height of the Naxalbari movement. One of its first iconic leaders was a batch mate. He was a batch mate of my predecessors too because Kaku kept failing just to stay on in college and play student politics. There were others in my batch too. One is a Trinamool leader today. Another, a brilliant actress, a film maker. A third, India’s finest gallerist. Two are in the US, a nuclear physicist and an IBMer. Another, an exceptional lawyer has been arguing my case in a 12 year old arbitration with Prasar Bharati. But the interesting thing is none of us, including Kaku, remains a Naxalite sympathiser. Modern India has moved on, in the opposite direction. That’s the funny thing about politics. What seems so well entrenched, so popular is never really that well entrenched or that popular. What appears to be unbeatable is never unbeatable. The absolute exists only in our heart and minds, and our heart and minds (like most things) swiftly change as things around us change. There was such a huge and popular uprising in Egypt a year ago that the Government changed. A year later, Tahrir Square was full again, with the same agitators now demanding yet another change. Change from the change they had wrought upon themselves barely twelve months ago. Politics has never been so fickle. Heroes become villains overnight. Achievers become failures before you know it. Does anyone remember Govinda beat Ram Naik to become a MP barely 8 years ago? Ram Jethmalani made Rajiv quaver with his ten questions on Bofors every morning. The party that once adored him for his guts has now sacked him. Advani was once the star of the BJP and led the party from two MPs to an incredible win. Who has time for him today, even in his own party? Or for Jaswant Singh, once seen as a successor to Vajpayee? We switch political opinions today as easily as we switch our toothpaste and aftershave. No wonder every party now stands in the middle. It’s easiest that way; allows them to swing right or left whenever convenient. Modi will also eventually move to the centre. Just as today’s bleeding heart Congress will. Already Modi talks of economic reforms. In fact, everyone is talking reforms because that’s the only way to woo big business to fund their election campaigns. The great political alternatives you and I fight over are only figments of our imagination. Exactly like toothpaste. They are branded differently, make unique claims but, at the end of the day, you know there’s no difference except in packaging and possibly the aftertaste. Like consumers, we are a disenchanted electorate. That’s why Modi’s followers are not all enamoured of the BJP. They are hoping BJP will follow Modi to define a new identity for itself. The Congress, on the other hand, has nothing to sell except a tired record of ineptitude, failure and breathless corruption. But yes, it has a history. It has a history where the BJP has none. And perhaps that’s why Modi’s history has become the centrepiece in the current political debate. Modi is undoubtedly a strong claimant for the throne of Delhi. But the question is: Does that mean he has already beaten Rahul and the Congress, as his followers would have us believe? Or does it mean he has peaked early and played out all his cards? All the Congress has to now do is run the last lap faster, better, on course and not (as is its habit) try to beat the rules of the game. I suggest: Keep an eye on the media. It’s often prejudiced and always wrong; but it provides the best insight into where things are likely to go.

http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/extraordinaryissue/entry/the-paucity-of-hope

[bulbul]

in the time period between the news 1st coming out and TOI clarifying that it was a hoax' date=' [b']Modi fans were jumping up and down shouting things like "Modi did what even the Army couldn't'" without applying even the slightest amount of common sense. I'm just giving a few examples of how any positive thing claimed about Modi is blindly accepted by his fans irrespective of how absurd the claim is.

Did you forgot 'that' thread & Modi haters opinions in 'that' thread. There are fanatics in either side , you cannot generalize :headshake:

[littlemaster1982]

No mate - I want the Facebook page link of this photograph. This is some cool kaanspiracy.

Here and here. At least in the second page, few guys have called out the bluff in comments section.

[FischerTal]

if you want a photo of Ahmedabad BRTS, here you go :two_thumbs_up:

[FischerTal]

No personal attacks please

[FischerTal]

On the contrary, this shows the dishonesty and hypocrisy of Modi supporters once again. People hear have directly attacked Modi's statements and refuted them. He was the one who used China FDI argument. His supporters are the ones who are using false image and rumors to hype him . If you see some of the posts by Outy and Dexter, you will see how much effort they have made to think and type those things. Contrast with Modi supporters like Bulbul who just post one liners and nothing to do with the other poster's post One of the things you guys ask is why is Modi hated or scrutinized so much. But it began with the over-hype of Modi and so called Gujarat development. He was made larger than life by his PR group when he is nothing like that. So if you hype up someone so big, then the people who dont like him will also hate on that scale. It's obvious

i think the hate for some people would be there whether he is "projected" as a development messiah or not :dontmentionit:

[ravishingravi]

I am pretty sure Advani has to be a PM candidate now, if BJP are to have any chance. I don't see any realistic coalition partners with Modi.

[Sachin=GOD]

I am pretty sure Advani has to be a PM candidate now' date=' if BJP are to have any chance. I don't see any realistic coalition partners with Modi.[/quote'] not the PM candidate because a substantial number of workers do want Modi and suddenly making Advani as the PM candidate might discourage them. But right now the BJP desperately needs to give the current/potential allies a strong hint that Advani is by no means out of the race and that in case BJP is in a position to form the Govt, the PM will be chosen by consensus of the allies. If they don't do this then I see UPA 3 coming up because the BJP on its own is in no position to get 160-170 (which will be required to attract big allies).

[asterix]

I want all other leaders like Jaitley, Sushma, Shivraj etc. start giving out statements... Too much focus on Modi and his speeches... BJP should project a united front and not just Modi front...

[1983-2011]

[Sachin=GOD]

Narendra Modi is like Batman

Anyone who is an avid fan of the Batman Universe will understand how the modern day adaptations of the character are grounded in human complexity. The current Batman of the DC animated world is unlike the ones a decade ago. His character has evolved from a man completely trusted with protecting the interests of society and defending its police machinery, to one cutting through a flawed law and order system by his own means to serve society. He is someone loathed by the 'civilised' of Gotham city and chased by the police for working against the status quo, but celebrated by the same for delivering results as the system upholding that status quo fails. In the current political narrative of India, Narendra Modi fits that profile. He is the perceived anti-hero, branded as being against a notion of 'secular and democratic' India, chased by the CBI and SITs, but he delivers governance with an iron fist while those who profess to uphold the 'ethos' of India, fail in the face of corruption scandals and poor administration. Moreover, like Batman, while the world curses Modi, accusing him of all sorts of crimes and immorality, he remains silent carrying on his mission to serve the people, unperturbed by the mudslinging by his detractors. The people of India are like the people of Gotham city. We are divided over the idea of Modi as a capable and just leader for India, where a major camp says he is dictatorial and dangerously ideological. Yet we whisper his name with admiration in drawing rooms across the country as we measure the past to see how he can shake the system to deliver strong governance. Graphic Novelist Frank Miller, one of the many famous artists of the Batman Universe once said in an interview that the character of Batman is grounded in a realistic world where "everybody's crazy". He said, "Batman and Bruce Wayne are both characters who believe in a sane world, but they believe that it only makes sense when you force it to. So there's a touch of the fascist in them." Democracy is a strong system of governance but in our heart of hearts we all know that the bureaucracy that functions with it needs an authoritarian hand to guide it and make it deliver. Batman is nothing more than a citizen who has embraced the authority every citizen possesses to deliver justice to his fellow man. Similarly, Modi has embraced his authority as a Chief Minister to not let the administrative bureaucracy be an impediment to good governance. Fictional and real citizens have faith in both characters because they apply their authority where it is required. That is why the people of Gotham feel safe at night when the bat signal is on, and that is why Modi has been elected Chief Minister of Gujarat three times in a row. We live in complex times and every famous figure brings pros and cons. Only by weighing them can people make the right choice, even if it is hard to swallow at first. But this approach is even more prudent now that the political weight of names and history has significantly reduced in comparison to administrative results. While the fictional Batman may never run for mayor of Gotham city or the Chief of police because he wants the system to prevail, this Batman from Gujarat has entered and consolidated his position in the system. Looking at the past eight years, the people of India will have to make an enlightened choice.

http://ibnlive.in.com/blogs/ayushmanjamwal/3248/64698/narendra-modi-is-like-batman.html :rofl: :rofl: :hysterical::hysterical::hysterical::hysterical: :rofl: :rofl: funniest piece of writing I've read in a long, long time.

[Sachin=GOD]

the first comment in that article: sorry for lack of art... :hysterical::hysterical::hysterical::hysterical::hysterical::hysterical::hysterical::hysterical:

[adi B]

Of course, we know that BRTS at Ahmedabad named Janmarg. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmedabad_BRTS

the BRTs here in south delhi have further congested the roads with very small space of other vehiculars..BRT corridor is a flop in delhi

[Crookbond]

the BRTs here in south delhi have further congested the roads with very small space of other vehiculars..BRT corridor is a flop in delhi

BRT in Delhi is a joke.