G_B_ Posted May 18, 2014 Posted May 18, 2014 Let's take the most optimistic scenario for the BJP(counting only the BJP not allies since their support will be contingent on Modi) in 2014: 1. UP - 30/80 2. Bihar - 10/40 3. Maharashtra - 30/48 (including Shiv Sena since they will gladly support Modi) 4. MP - 20/29 5. Rajasthan - 20/25 6. Karnataka - 15/28 7. Gujarat - 20/26 Throw in another 50 from AP, Assam, Chhatisgarh, Harayana, Delhi, Punjab, Orissa and they still don't cross 200 forget about 271. None of their allies except Shiv Sena is going to support a government with Modi at the helm. It will be political suicide if BJP makes Modi their PM candidate and despite what the internet residing middle class thinks the ground reality is that BJP has got it's ass handed to them on a platter wherever Modi has campaigned outside Gujarat. :hatsoff:
bulbul Posted May 18, 2014 Posted May 18, 2014 That doesn't mean anything. The elections were contested as a referendum on Nitish's performance. That was the only talking point of the elections. BJP has 12 seats from Bihar. It will be cut in half if they choose to go on their own. Modi in Bihar? No one gives a feck about Modi in UP and Bihar. He had zero influence last time and will have zero influence this time. You are overestimating the role of BJP in Bihar. Even if JD-U fights alone they will likely get a majority or be at least close enough to form the government. Anyhow, the Bihar elections are in 2015. If BJP pick Modi as their candidate without JD-U support they will struggle to win even 5 seats in Bihar, which is pretty much what they used to win before joining hands with JD-U In case of snapping of ties with JD-U, BJP will definitely be wiped out from Bihar like it was in Orissa.
tothepoint Posted May 18, 2014 Posted May 18, 2014 Looking at the predictions, makes me wonder how far some of these guys were from ground realities. Almost all of them overestimated Congress, BSP, SP, JDU etc. The lesser said about the AAP and its supporters, the better. :cantstop:
G_B_ Posted May 18, 2014 Posted May 18, 2014 to be fair. Even being a bjp supporter i thought 190-210 BJP and NDA 240-250. Nobody could have predicted 73 seats for the nda in UP. Incredible. Still can believe it. I live in the UK and got up at 4am counting day and turned on my chromebook. Saw NDA leading in 340 odd seats. Smiled and went back to sleep. My first reaction to that was BJP have made major inroads i odisha, tn, kerela, ap and west bengal. Was expecting 50 seats from these places. When i got up at about 7:30 and sat down to see the whole picture was astonished with the UP count. UP has effectively won it for the BJP with honorable mentions to Maharashtra and Bihar.
JaiRamesh2 Posted May 18, 2014 Posted May 18, 2014 Lalu and Nitish. Nitish and Sonia. Mulayam and mayawati. TMC and left. AAP and Congress. BJP has managed to unite India. +1, Deluded naysayers were busy pointing out Modi will struggle to pull in allies. And now, the 'secular' parties are scurrying around looking for alliances to form opposition :cantstop:
bulbul Posted May 18, 2014 Posted May 18, 2014 How migrant labourers worked in Modi’s favour I disagree. The biggest, most credible explanation I found in a pre-election tour of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar was the message carried home by migrant workers in Gujarat. Why did they think Modi would change their lives, and how had they heard about the Gujarat model? None of them said they had met, let alone been swayed, by RSS cadres. None had been won over by the BJP’s advertisement-packed campaign through TV and other media. Indeed, none of the villagers I met watched the cable channels that were full of BJP advertisements. They had no cable TV, and watched only Doordarshan, the government channel, which was obviously slanted in favour of the ruling Congress Party. This is where the answers got interesting. Many villagers said they had heard tales of good governance from migrant workers who had returned from Gujarat to nearby villages. This word of mouth had a credibility that would never be matched by expensive media campaigns or cadre blitzes. Nobody trusted the promises of politicians, but they readily believed tales carried by migrant workers. These tales were not very detailed or specific, but sufficed to be a beacon of hope for disillusioned villagers who despaired of getting anything from their local politicians. We asked villagers, what about the riots in Gujarat in 2002? Are you not afraid that Modi will unleash similar violence if he is voted to power in New Delhi? The villagers replied that maybe there was some violence in Gujarat in 2002, but today all migrant workers said it was a peaceful place where there was public order and nobody lived in fear. One villager in UP said that there was constant violence and gangsterism in his state, no matter who ruled, so why worry about what happened in Gujarat a long time ago? The election campaigns of the Congress, SP and BSP tried to paint Modi’s Gujarat as a land of sectarian carnage, but migrant labourers told a very different story, one that was widely believed. Muslim villagers in the two states told us they were not going to vote for Modi. But most other communities were sold on Modi. Older dalits in UP said they would definitely vote for Mayawati, but young dalits said they would vote for Modi, as they believed he would bring them jobs. This may help explain why Mayawati got wiped out in the state: her once impregnable dalit vote-bank has been seriously eroded. Gujarat gets migrants mainly from the Hindi heartland, but also eastern states like Assam, Odisha and West Bengal. The numbers are not massive. But the stories of even a few migrants seem to carry credibility, and seem to spread over large areas in poor, backward areas. Modi can be happy that migrants have acted as independent evaluators and given him good marks. But he needs to stand warned that the process has raised impossibly high expectations that he will not be able to meet. He has a tough job ahead. http://liveblogs.indiatimes.com/Swaminomics/how-migrant-labourers-worked-in-modis-favour/
Crookbond Posted May 18, 2014 Posted May 18, 2014 Pangariya is a good choice. The only problem he faces is his loose canon mouth and typical behavior of not ready to listen to an alternate opinion.
Number Posted May 18, 2014 Posted May 18, 2014 hahaha. not tough to guess who said all this. Somebody was having pipe dreams of his feudal lord taking over India.
Texan Posted May 18, 2014 Posted May 18, 2014 Before elections, they all said - "There is no Modi wave. It is a media creation". Now, they're afraid they'll get wiped out if elections are held. * Nitish Kumar resigns but doesn't recommend dissolution of the assembly * AAP MLAs in Delhi do not want elections now.
someone Posted May 18, 2014 Posted May 18, 2014 Well, I posted in the LS thread as well, the new voters seems to be the main reason for this a big victory. The vote count and shares of various opposition parties did not suffer relative to 2009, but the new votes certainly messed up their calculations and caused a big dent to their vote-bank politics.
Alchemist Posted May 18, 2014 Posted May 18, 2014 Modi is a Vegetarian. Definitely a communal person. He is not considering the sentiments of minorities. He needs to start eating lamb and mutton and cows. How come congress didn't think of this point ?
adi B Posted May 18, 2014 Posted May 18, 2014 Looking at the predictions' date=' makes me wonder how far some of these guys were from ground realities. Almost all of them overestimated Congress, BSP, SP, JDU etc. The lesser said about the AAP and its supporters, the better. :cantstop:[/quote'] forget ground realities,they dont even live in india to understand the wave/surge that was pro modi/bjp.i and even bulbul kept on insisting that for bjp to come back to power,their own performance was of prime importance and making modi the pm candidate was a huge risk but was worth taking and it actually paid off well. desi predicted this in 2012 and he was right
adi B Posted May 18, 2014 Posted May 18, 2014 hahaha. not tough to guess who said all this. Somebody was having pipe dreams of his feudal lord taking over India. mostly outsider but some posts were written by our ever pessimistic asterix dada
bulbul Posted May 18, 2014 Posted May 18, 2014 mostly outsider but some posts were written by our ever pessimistic asterix dada Included his posts not to differentiate :giggle: Few are from another BJP supporter. I posted these just because i fascinated how much things changes in a year. We can find some more gems if dig deeper....:winky:
Haarkarjeetgaye Posted May 19, 2014 Posted May 19, 2014 Congratulations BJP supporters. Hard luck chaddi haters and AAP supporters and Congress sympathizers
someone Posted May 19, 2014 Posted May 19, 2014 Modi is a Vegetarian. Definitely a communal person. He is not considering the sentiments of minorities. He needs to start eating lamb and mutton and cows. How come congress didn't think of this point ? That's very good, somebody sent it to Sagarika Ghose. #YoSagarikaSoSecular
Crookbond Posted May 19, 2014 Posted May 19, 2014 Good idea and hope the implementation is good too. Modi to have separate chief ministers' cabinet http://www.business-standard.com/article/politics/modi-to-have-separate-chief-ministers-cabinet-114051900974_1.html#.U3oOL_gvBCQ.twitter
Sachin=GOD Posted May 19, 2014 Posted May 19, 2014 Good idea and hope the implementation is good too. Modi to have separate chief ministers' cabinet http://www.business-standard.com/article/politics/modi-to-have-separate-chief-ministers-cabinet-114051900974_1.html#.U3oOL_gvBCQ.twitter Good initiative but isn't this like the Chief Ministers' conferences we already have? One more thing we need is some sort of coordination between Central Cabinet Ministers and State Level Cabinet Ministers of the same department.
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