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Trinamool Congress withdraws from UPA govt.

Stuge

By Stuge
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Sachin=GOD Newbie

Sachin=GOD

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I thought it was quite expected.
she has threatened to withdraw support over many issues many, many times but hasn't actually gone ahead and done it so I didn't expect it to happen this time as well. Maybe its a case of Rats getting off a sinking ship...
1983-2011 Newbie

1983-2011

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UPA NUMBERS IN LOK SABHA UPA + Allies (Mamata, Mulayam, Karunanidhi) = 329 seats UPA + Allies - Mamata = 310 seats UPA + Allies - Mamata and Mulayam = 288 seats Majority Mark: 272

Sachin=GOD Newbie

Sachin=GOD

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DMK is not going anywhere. Karunanidhi is too shrewd to do that. He will try to position himself away from the decision
they won't leave (at least not now) but now DMK (and other coalition partners, including MSY and Mayawati) know that the Govt is dependent upon them more than ever and cannot really afford to lose any of them so they will try to take more advantage. Congress is in a tough spot now - the reforms they would like to implement would most probably be unpopular but necessary (like the recent increase in Diesel prices or limit on LPG). If they don't implement the reforms then there is a pretty good chance that come 2014 they will face the consequences BUT if they do implement the reforms then the allies will create trouble and some more allies may even withdraw support at a later stage.
ganeshran Collaborator

ganeshran

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they won't leave (at least not now) but now DMK (and other coalition partners, including MSY and Mayawati) know that the Govt is dependent upon them more than ever and cannot really afford to lose any of them so they will try to take more advantage. Congress is in a tough spot now - the reforms they would like to implement would most probably be unpopular but necessary (like the recent increase in Diesel prices or limit on LPG). If they don't implement the reforms then there is a pretty good chance that come 2014 they will face the consequences BUT if they do implement the reforms then the allies will create trouble and some more allies may even withdraw support at a later stage.
DMK wont leave till 2014 where it will ally itself deciding on the anti incumbency factor. The party is in a very poor situation in Tamilandu and has internal succession pangs to handle not to mention tackle DMDK which is on an upward swing. My guess is Congress might increase the LPG limit from 6 to 8 to allow some allies to take some credit for the rollback. Mamata going away is for the better because just like the Left, she is a politican perpetually in the opposition mould. She is best confined to the state government. One of BSP or SP will stay with the government always as both cant move to the BJP fold for the fear of upsetting their large muslim base
Sachin=GOD Newbie

Sachin=GOD

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DMK wont leave till 2014 where it will ally itself deciding on the anti incumbency factor. The party is in a very poor situation in Tamilandu and has internal succession pangs to handle not to mention tackle DMDK which is on an upward swing. My guess is Congress might increase the LPG limit from 6 to 8 to allow some allies to take some credit for the rollback. Mamata going away is for the better because just like the Left, she is a politican perpetually in the opposition mould. She is best confined to the state government. One of BSP or SP will stay with the government always as both cant move to the BJP fold for the fear of upsetting their large muslim base
from what little I know of Tamil Nadu politics, the image of Congress/UPA is not very good in the state so maybe DMK might think of distancing itself from the Govt at some point of time before the 2014 elections. A small rollback may happen but it will only happen if the other allies also create a lot of trouble - this time the Congress looks determined to pursue its agenda so the TMC withdrawing support may not be enough to cause a rollback. Right now the only incentive for MSY/Mayawati to support the Govt is that the Congress has the CBI card. If not for that I am very sure that neither of them would even come near this Govt - as we have seen over the past few months, both the parties (initially) oppose almost all the policies of the Govt but in the end they meekly support the Govt. Also, this Govt is quite unpopular in UP right now and the Congress is the weakest among all 4 major parties in UP so BSP/SP wouldn't gain much by supporting it. But, their not supporting Cong doesn't mean they will support BJP - in case of MSY he can never support a BJP Govt while Mayawati is like Mamta - she will join any coalition, be it BJP-led or Cong-led, and then create trouble for the Govt. Also, this time it looks like MSY has been seriously thinking about the third front in case BJP/Cong don't get enough seats in 2014.
ganeshran Collaborator

ganeshran

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from what little I know of Tamil Nadu politics, the image of Congress/UPA is not very good in the state so maybe DMK might think of distancing itself from the Govt at some point of time before the 2014 elections. A small rollback may happen but it will only happen if the other allies also create a lot of trouble - this time the Congress looks determined to pursue its agenda so the TMC withdrawing support may not be enough to cause a rollback. Right now the only incentive for MSY/Mayawati to support the Govt is that the Congress has the CBI card. If not for that I am very sure that neither of them would even come near this Govt - as we have seen over the past few months, both the parties (initially) oppose almost all the policies of the Govt but in the end they meekly support the Govt. Also, this Govt is quite unpopular in UP right now and the Congress is the weakest among all 4 major parties in UP so BSP/SP wouldn't gain much by supporting it. But, their not supporting Cong doesn't mean they will support BJP - in case of MSY he can never support a BJP Govt while Mayawati is like Mamta - she will join any coalition, be it BJP-led or Cong-led, and then create trouble for the Govt. Also, this time it looks like MSY has been seriously thinking about the third front in case BJP/Cong don't get enough seats in 2014.
Even the worst case scenario - no confidence motion doesnt look all that bleak for congress. They might be short of 10-15 seats max and it would be possible to sway atleast 20-30 candidates from the opposition by giving bribes. The ruling MPs have every motivation to make the government last its term while the opposition MPs, atleast the ones not sure of getting a ticket again have the incentive to avoid early elections and make a ton of money in the process. As far as the third front goes, it is DOA for a long time now. The leaders part of the front cant give a stable government for 5 weeks , let alone 5 years.
jf1gp_1 Grand Master

jf1gp_1

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The only thing she knows is to oppose even when she is CM and was a power player at center. Person with no plan and absolutely clueless on what to do with this opportunity she had to fix her state. Has she done anything positive or constructive while in power ? Glad she is gone next she should exit from state

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