Predictions for the 2014 General Elections in India

[saneindian]

Headlines Today walon ne to apne opinion poll mein Modi ki poori hawa nikal di. BJP 130 seats, Congress 121 seats. Mulayam 34, Jaya 30, left 30, Maya 27, Mamta 23, Shivsena 15, RJD 14, BJD 13, Jagan 13, TRS 12, JDU 10, TDP 9, SAD 7, NCP 6, DMK 5, JVM 4, JMM 3, JDS 3, IUML 3, MNS 3, NC 2, AGP 2, PDP 1 The only problem they show the NDA gaining 6% voteshare (32% compared to 26 in 2009) and yet losing 4 seats! UPA losing 8% share and losing 122 seats. Whereas others gaining 2% and adding a staggering 126 seats! If at all the BJP reaches 28-29% voteshare, minimum tally would be 160 and not less

[BeautifulGame]

Headlines Today walon ne to apne opinion poll mein Modi ki poori hawa nikal di. BJP 130 seats, Congress 121 seats. Mulayam 34, Jaya 30, left 30, Maya 27, Mamta 23, Shivsena 15, RJD 14, BJD 13, Jagan 13, TRS 12, JDU 10, TDP 9, SAD 7, NCP 6, DMK 5, JVM 4, JMM 3, JDS 3, IUML 3, MNS 3, NC 2, AGP 2, PDP 1 The only problem they show the NDA gaining 6% voteshare (32% compared to 26 in 2009) and yet losing 4 seats! UPA losing 8% share and losing 122 seats. Whereas others gaining 2% and adding a staggering 126 seats! If at all the BJP reaches 28-29% voteshare, minimum tally would be 160 and not less

What predictions :hysterical: Seriously do theye people who conduct opinion polls have ever got anything right

[The Outsider]

Headlines Today walon ne to apne opinion poll mein Modi ki poori hawa nikal di. BJP 130 seats, Congress 121 seats. Mulayam 34, Jaya 30, left 30, Maya 27, Mamta 23, Shivsena 15, RJD 14, BJD 13, Jagan 13, TRS 12, JDU 10, TDP 9, SAD 7, NCP 6, DMK 5, JVM 4, JMM 3, JDS 3, IUML 3, MNS 3, NC 2, AGP 2, PDP 1 The only problem they show the NDA gaining 6% voteshare (32% compared to 26 in 2009) and yet losing 4 seats! UPA losing 8% share and losing 122 seats. Whereas others gaining 2% and adding a staggering 126 seats! If at all the BJP reaches 28-29% voteshare, minimum tally would be 160 and not less

Not saying that the poll is accurate, but such scenarios are certainly plausible in the context of Indian elections. For example, in Bihar the vote share of both JD-U and BJP will rise because they fought the last elections in coalition, but their seats will decrease or at the best stay around the same. Or in states like Tamil Nadu and Andhra where the BJP has very little vote share, even a 5-10% increase in votes will not win them any seats. Also, in a state like Gujarat or MP where they already have a large number of seats, even a huge increase in vote share can only give them marginal benefit in terms of seats. Drawing an equivalency between vote share and number of seats is a very tough job in the context of Indian elections, which is why Pranoy Roy calls it a psephologist's nightmare. BTW, wouldn't the prediction thread be a better place for these posts?

[saneindian]

Not saying that the poll is accurate, but such scenarios are certainly plausible in the context of Indian elections. For example, in Bihar the vote share of both JD-U and BJP will rise because they fought the last elections in coalition, but their seats will decrease or at the best stay around the same. Or in states like Tamil Nadu and Andhra where the BJP has very little vote share, even a 5-10% increase in votes will not win them any seats. Also, in a state like Gujarat or MP where they already have a large number of seats, even a huge increase in vote share can only give them marginal benefit in terms of seats. Drawing an equivalency between vote share and number of seats is a very tough job in the context of Indian elections, which is why Pranoy Roy calls it a psephologist's nightmare. BTW, wouldn't the prediction thread be a better place for these posts?

Will continue the discussion to that thread. Intiaally just wanted to post the first line of what I wrote but ended up adding the other details as well.

[saneindian]

Not saying that the poll is accurate, but such scenarios are certainly plausible in the context of Indian elections. For example, in Bihar the vote share of both JD-U and BJP will rise because they fought the last elections in coalition, but their seats will decrease or at the best stay around the same. Or in states like Tamil Nadu and Andhra where the BJP has very little vote share, even a 5-10% increase in votes will not win them any seats. Also, in a state like Gujarat or MP where they already have a large number of seats, even a huge increase in vote share can only give them marginal benefit in terms of seats. Drawing an equivalency between vote share and number of seats is a very tough job in the context of Indian elections, which is why Pranoy Roy calls it a psephologist's nightmare. BTW, wouldn't the prediction thread be a better place for these posts?

The converse is also true. BJP's has its limited areas of influence and any subtantial increase in vote share improves its chances of winning those seats. Had it been 1-2% increase, would have been understandable but a 6% vote swing in Indian context translating to loss of seats looks inexplicable. Looking at the poll they show the BJP going down in Karnataka (-12), Jharkhand (-6), Chattosgarh (-4), Assam (-3) and gaining in Rajasthan (+10), Gujrat (+6), Delhi (+5), Mah(+3), UP (+2) Somehow in my calculations the numbers do not add up. My guess is they have underestimated the BJP in UP and Bihar. Mulayam and Lalu winning shows muslim polarization in their favour, counter polarization will help BJP which perhaps is showing up in vote share but isn't getting reflected in seats ( +2 in UP and +1 in Bihar). I am punting 30 in UP (+20) and 15 in Bihar (+3). Unfortunately they have not exactly released statewise vote share, else could have looked at those numbers in detail to have a much more meaning correlation. Typically the multiplier effect in LS polls for BJP and Congress is gain of 7-8 seats for 1% of vote share increase and loss of 9-10 seats for a 1% vote share lost. Congress is shown to be losing 8% votes, roughly 80 seats (were at 206 earlier now projected at 121). Similarly, a 6% jump would mean at least 35-40 additional seats for BJP whereas they are shown to be gaining just 14 seats. Of course the caveat being this is more of a mathematical analysis and may not be very accurate on the ground. Am still sticking to my earlier prediction of 170+ for BJP.

[Sachin=GOD]

Aaj Tak was also showing its own poll - NDA at 155 and UPA at 137. This means a humongous 251 seats for the remaining parties. BTW I think these surveys are all useless because elections are so far away right now.

[saneindian]

Aaj Tak was also showing its own poll - NDA at 155 and UPA at 137. This means a humongous 251 seats for the remaining parties. BTW I think these surveys are all useless because elections are so far away right now.

Same as the HT-C-Voter poll. Their guests (Yogendra Yadav, representatives of SP, TMC, BJD a HT editor, some sociologis etc) Tried their best to create a scneario where 3rd front govt could be formed without two major parties, failed miserably!

[Sachin=GOD]

Headlines Today walon ne to apne opinion poll mein Modi ki poori hawa nikal di. BJP 130 seats, Congress 121 seats. Mulayam 34, Jaya 30, left 30, Maya 27, Mamta 23, Shivsena 15, RJD 14, BJD 13, Jagan 13, TRS 12, JDU 10, TDP 9, SAD 7, NCP 6, DMK 5, JVM 4, JMM 3, JDS 3, IUML 3, MNS 3, NC 2, AGP 2, PDP 1 The only problem they show the NDA gaining 6% voteshare (32% compared to 26 in 2009) and yet losing 4 seats! UPA losing 8% share and losing 122 seats. Whereas others gaining 2% and adding a staggering 126 seats! If at all the BJP reaches 28-29% voteshare, minimum tally would be 160 and not less

this looks highly unlikely. Its a national election so if Cong loses so many seats then the BJP, by vitue of being the biggest opposition party, will almost certainly gain a lot of seats instead of these seats going to the regional parties but honestly speaking, right now it doesn't look like Cong will lose so many.

[The Outsider]

The converse is also true. BJP's has its limited areas of influence and any subtantial increase in vote share improves its chances of winning those seats. Had it been 1-2% increase, would have been understandable but a 6% vote swing in Indian context translating to loss of seats looks inexplicable. Looking at the poll they show the BJP going down in Karnataka (-12), Jharkhand (-6), Chattosgarh (-4), Assam (-3) and gaining in Rajasthan (+10), Gujrat (+6), Delhi (+5), Mah(+3), UP (+2) Somehow in my calculations the numbers do not add up. My guess is they have underestimated the BJP in UP and Bihar. Mulayam and Lalu winning shows muslim polarization in their favour, counter polarization will help BJP which perhaps is showing up in vote share but isn't getting reflected in seats ( +2 in UP and +1 in Bihar). I am punting 30 in UP (+20) and 15 in Bihar (+3). Unfortunately they have not exactly released statewise vote share, else could have looked at those numbers in detail to have a much more meaning correlation. Typically the multiplier effect in LS polls for BJP and Congress is gain of 7-8 seats for 1% of vote share increase and loss of 9-10 seats for a 1% vote share lost. Congress is shown to be losing 8% votes, roughly 80 seats (were at 206 earlier now projected at 121). Similarly, a 6% jump would mean at least 35-40 additional seats for BJP whereas they are shown to be gaining just 14 seats. Of course the caveat being this is more of a mathematical analysis and may not be very accurate on the ground. Am still sticking to my earlier prediction of 170+ for BJP.

Yeah, in places like Rajasthan where the BJP is in direct confrontation with Congress and does not already have a high number of seats, even moderate swings will lead to major gains in seats. Think they have 4 seats in Rajasthan right now, even a 5% swing will take them around the 15-17 kind of range. The problem is there aren't too many states like that - Chhatisgarh is already completely saturated. Gujarat, Jharkhand, and MP while not completely saturated already have BJP winning a comfortable majority of the seats. That just leaves Maharashtra in addition to Rajasthan where the swing can be translated into a substantial increase in seats. On the flip side, the Muslim vote consolidation in UP will ensure that BJP will not benefit greatly with a vote share increase, due to the Amit Shah-Modi combination. The split with JD-U means that an increase in vote will not lead to any increase in seats in Bihar. At the same time, Modi's presence will lead to a major increase in the vote share in urban centers, even in South India like Chennai, Hyderabad, Coimbatore, Trivandarum etc. But the current baseline for the BJP is so low in those states that getting even 2-4 seats would be virtually impossible. IMO, this is a major and different factor in these elections which makes the traditional multiplier effect not as applicable this time round.

[Sachin=GOD]

Same as the HT-C-Voter poll. Their guests (Yogendra Yadav' date= representatives of SP, TMC, BJD a HT editor, some sociologis etc) Tried their best to create a scneario where 3rd front govt could be formed without two major parties, failed miserably!

Oh yeah...just realized, its Aaj Tak and Headlines Today so they obviously have the same polls.

[Sachin=GOD]

The converse is also true. BJP's has its limited areas of influence and any subtantial increase in vote share improves its chances of winning those seats. Had it been 1-2% increase, would have been understandable but a 6% vote swing in Indian context translating to loss of seats looks inexplicable. Looking at the poll they show the BJP going down in Karnataka (-12), Jharkhand (-6), Chattosgarh (-4), Assam (-3) and gaining in Rajasthan (+10), Gujrat (+6), Delhi (+5), Mah(+3), UP (+2) Somehow in my calculations the numbers do not add up. My guess is they have underestimated the BJP in UP and Bihar. Mulayam and Lalu winning shows muslim polarization in their favour, counter polarization will help BJP which perhaps is showing up in vote share but isn't getting reflected in seats ( +2 in UP and +1 in Bihar). I am punting 30 in UP (+20) and 15 in Bihar (+3). Unfortunately they have not exactly released statewise vote share, else could have looked at those numbers in detail to have a much more meaning correlation. Typically the multiplier effect in LS polls for BJP and Congress is gain of 7-8 seats for 1% of vote share increase and loss of 9-10 seats for a 1% vote share lost. Congress is shown to be losing 8% votes, roughly 80 seats (were at 206 earlier now projected at 121). Similarly, a 6% jump would mean at least 35-40 additional seats for BJP whereas they are shown to be gaining just 14 seats. Of course the caveat being this is more of a mathematical analysis and may not be very accurate on the ground. Am still sticking to my earlier prediction of 170+ for BJP.

I would be absolutely stunned if there is counter polarization of Hindu votes in favor of the BJP and even more stunned if BJP gets 30 in UP. Whatever polarization will happen in UP will benefit the Congress because its a National Election OR if the voters do decide that they've had enough of Cong then BSP, and not BJP, would look like the natural alternative in UP because the Modi-Shah combo would be enough to put off a lot of voters.

[saneindian]

I would be absolutely stunned if there is counter polarization of Hindu votes in favor of the BJP and even more stunned if BJP gets 30 in UP. Whatever polarization will happen in UP will benefit the Congress because its a National Election OR if the voters do decide that they've had enough of Cong then BSP' date=' and not BJP, would look like the natural alternative in UP because the Modi-Shah combo would be enough to put off a lot of voters.[/quote'] Three factors - Hindutva, Modi's OBC card and Kalyan Singh impact (Lodhs 5% of population and majorly influence at least 10-11 seats in the Agra, Aligarh, Ferozabad, Farrukhabad belt). A major reason of BJP's decline in UP has been the disenchantment of the non-yadav OBCs and MBCs. Kalyan coming back and Modi's OBC card could help bridge that gap. Lets see how it goes

[The Outsider]

Three factors - Hindutva' date=' [b']Modi's OBC card and Kalyan Singh impact (Lodhs 5% of population and majorly influence at least 10-11 seats in the Agra, Aligarh, Ferozabad, Farrukhabad belt). A major reason of BJP's decline in UP has been the disenchantment of the non-yadav OBCs and MBCs. Kalyan coming back and Modi's OBC card could help bridge that gap. Lets see how it goes

Modi's OBC card will have no impact. People are pro or anti Modi for different reasons and are very firm on their stance on Modi either way, for his caste to be a factor. Kalyan Singh's comeback can certainly benefit the BJP, though he is a bit of a spent force.

[cowboysfan]

I talked to my dad(who really hates BJP) and he has projections similar to Shwetabh.

[Khalpat]

Well, from last few surveys one thing I have noticed is the seats of Congress is always more in actual terms then what is predicted across any surveys, be it the survey of 2004 or 2009. The final count of Congress is much more so be ready for a Rahul baba as PM. The major reason can be that most of the Congress voters are villagers so either these surveywallahs ignore them or do not go their or they are like what we see here in ICF. Never admit due to guilty conscience that they are actually Congress supporters, 80% of the Congresswallahs like to discuss more on the negativity of Modi or Sangh rather then positivity of Congress/Gandhis or even some will go to the extent to say I am BJP supporter just the case is that I would have preffered a different PM nominee.

[saneindian]

Well, from last few surveys one thing I have noticed is the seats of Congress is always more in actual terms then what is predicted across any surveys, be it the survey of 2004 or 2009. The final count of Congress is much more so be ready for a Rahul baba as PM. The major reason can be that most of the Congress voters are villagers so either these surveywallahs ignore them or do not go their or they are like what we see here in ICF. Never admit due to guilty conscience that they are actually Congress supporters, 80% of the Congresswallahs like to discuss more on the negativity of Modi or Sangh rather then positivity of Congress/Gandhis or even some will go to the extent to say I am BJP supporter just the case is that I would have preffered a different PM nominee.

Not always the case. 2009 was won because Congress did so well in the urban pockets - all 7 seats in Delhi, swept Mumbai, a couple of seats in Bangalore, Hyderabad and lots of seats from other urban centers like Ludhiana, Chandigarh, Gurgaon, Jaipur, Vizag, Panjim etc.

[Sachin=GOD]

Three factors - Hindutva' date= Modi's OBC card and Kalyan Singh impact (Lodhs 5% of population and majorly influence at least 10-11 seats in the Agra, Aligarh, Ferozabad, Farrukhabad belt). A major reason of BJP's decline in UP has been the disenchantment of the non-yadav OBCs and MBCs. Kalyan coming back and Modi's OBC card could help bridge that gap. Lets see how it goes

Hindutva - Modi is not so strong an "issue" as the Ram Mandir so as to make the core Hindu voters go out and vote in large numbers. OBC card - ain't working because till date BJP never really used his OBC card and now suddenly just because he has come into National politics they are starting to use it. People will not vote for/against modi because of him being an OBC. Kalyan Singh's impact - he no longer has any impact. Believe me on this one. The only way for BJP to win big in UP is make the state leaders united and make them run the campaign instead of bringing in polarizing figures from Gujarat. If BJP even tries to play the Hindutva card in UP then they will cause a massive polarization of Muslim voters.

[BeautifulGame]

Headlines Today walon ne to apne opinion poll mein Modi ki poori hawa nikal di. BJP 130 seats, Congress 121 seats. Mulayam 34, Jaya 30, left 30, Maya 27, Mamta 23, Shivsena 15, RJD 14, BJD 13, Jagan 13, TRS 12, JDU 10, TDP 9, SAD 7, NCP 6, DMK 5, JVM 4, JMM 3, JDS 3, IUML 3, MNS 3, NC 2, AGP 2, PDP 1

The no of Lok sabha seats Jayalalitha won in her career as CM = 0.Both times she faced parliment elections as CM ADMK lost all 39 seats (Wonder any other CM that has similar record) She may not face similar fate as then but the prediction of her winning as many as 30 seats that too with no coalitions seems very weird.

[zubinpepsi]

another 5 years of secular congress... . im so excited... :yay::yay: power of internet mullahs :hatsoff:

[bulbul]

BJP may trounce Congress in four direct contest states even in LS polls: Survey Cong projected to lose 28 of 40 LS seats it won in MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi in 2009: Survey BJP projected to add 27 LS seats to 30 it won in MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi in 2009: Survey BJP may win 57 of 72 LS seats in MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi: Survey Congress may win only 12 of 72 LS seats in MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi: Survey NDA tally projected to rise between 187 and 195 Lok Sabha seats just by gains in 4 poll-bound states: Survey UPA tally projected to slip to between 134 & 142 Lok Sabha seats just by losses in four poll-bound states: Survey 35 per cent in the 4 poll-bound states say Rahul should be the PM if Congress comes to power in the 2014 polls: Survey 30 per cent in the 4 poll-bound states say Rahul insulted PM in the way he opposed ordinance on convicted legislators: Survey 37 per cent in the 4 poll-bound states say Rahul opposed ordinance on convicted MPs only after public outrage: Survey

Of the 72 Parliamentary constituencies in these four states, the BJP is likely to bag as many as 57 seats. That's 27 seats more than it won in the 2009 elections, and 15 more than it was projected to win in July 2013, when the same opinion poll was conducted the previous time

src : IBNlive Hail Modi :hatsoff: