Sachin=GOD Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 Press Trust of India @PTI_News BJP announces candidates for seven Rajya Sabha seats from Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Bihar. Press Trust of India @PTI_News BJP to nominate Delhi party chief Vjay Goel for Rajya Sabha biennial election from Rajasthan.
G_B_ Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 One thing to also note is that if BJP is in striking distance to form government, there will be defections from the congress, bsp sp and ncp. Already in maharashtra, the NCP is worried a lot of their MP's who might get elected will defect to the BJP after elections.
Sachin=GOD Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 One thing to also note is that if BJP is in striking distance to form government, there will be defections from the congress, bsp sp and ncp. Already in maharashtra, the NCP is worried a lot of their MP's who might get elected will defect to the BJP after elections. defections can only work if at least 1/3rd members of a particular party defect.
The Outsider Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 Imagine Modi needing Amma and Mamta support to form govt . Will retire from politics within a year :cantstop: I kind of want Modi to become the PM now. It'll be hilarious to see him deal with Amma, Behen, and Didi. defections can only work if at least 1/3rd members of a particular party defect. Two-thirds now. Pretty much impossible to have defections now.
Sachin=GOD Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 Two-thirds now. Pretty much impossible to have defections now. IIRC its still 1/3rd to break a party. Here's a link - http://164.100.47.132/LssNew/abstract/disqualification_on_ground_of_de.htm 3. The Tenth Schedule as added to the Constitution by the Constitution (Fifty-second Amendment) Act, 1985 contained a provision (paragraph 3 of the Tenth Schedule) to the effect that no member will be disqualified from the membership of the House where he makes a claim that he and any other members of his legislature party constitute a group representing a faction which has arisen as a result of a split in his original political party and such group consists of not less than one third members of the legislature party concerned.
G_B_ Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 defections can only work if at least 1/3rd members of a particular party defect. well take the NCP they are on course to win about 6 seats. 2/3 of that about 4 MPs. Easily done... especially from regions like navi mumbai fine maybe the congress wont have defections. But parties like SP, and NCP JD(u) IMO will have defections IMO. Especially if its 1/3 then thats easily done. If the SP win 15 then 5 MP's can and probably will easily defect.
BeautifulGame Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 Mamata wont support him. Not after nandigram and i would rather have the BJP not forming gov than taking help from Bonner jee The big hitch will be the massive ego of Amma. She is already pissed of at the popularity of Modi even ignored Cho recently because he is singing praises of Modi :cantstop: Remember Vajpayee nightmare quotes on Jaya He can work with Amma. Probably hitch will be Sri Lankan Tamil issues. But I think that can work for the BJP as well as most SriLankan tamils are hindus. Religion never came into the Lankan issue its mainly about ethinicity.But that wont dither Amma she isnt that pro when it comes to Lankan tamil issues. Even angered majority of Lankan tamil supporters (including Vaiko) by demolishing the war memorial built for war victims of Lanka in Thanjavur last month because it was few centi meters :cantstop: into govt highway
The Outsider Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 IIRC its still 1/3rd to break a party. Here's a link - http://164.100.47.132/LssNew/abstract/disqualification_on_ground_of_de.htm That's the 1985 amendment. There was a further one in 2003: As per the 1985 Act, a 'defection' by one-third of the elected members of a political party was considered a 'merger'. Such defections were not actionable against. The Dinesh Goswami Committee on Electoral Reforms, the Law Commission in its report on "Reform of Electoral Laws" and the National Commission to Review the Working of the Constitution (NCRWC) all recommended the deletion of the Tenth Schedule provision regarding exemption from disqualification in case of a split. Finally the 91st Constitutional Amendment Act, 2003, changed this. So now at least two-thirds of the members of a party have to be in favour of a "merger" for it to have validity in the eyes of the law. "The merger of the original political party or a member of a House shall be deemed to have taken place if, and only if, not less than two-thirds of the members of the legislature party concerned have agreed to such merger," states the Tenth Schedule. http://archive.indianexpress.com/news/antidefection-law/339606/
Sachin=GOD Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 That's the 1985 amendment. There was a further one in 2003: http://archive.indianexpress.com/news/antidefection-law/339606/ Ok. Then there's really no question of a defection from any party having more than 10-12 seats because it would need a pretty large number of MPs to defect.
G_B_ Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 Ok. Then there's really no question of a defection from any party having more than 10-12 seats because it would need a pretty large number of MPs to defect. but there are plenty of Indian parties with about 5-6 seats. Parties like JMM and even INLD. Easy pickings. and that still does not stop elected MPs from parties abstaining from voting. Its happened before. A lot of congress mp's elected say from maharashtra might just do that with elections coming up and seek to contest the same lok sabha seat on a bjp ticket in re elections or are looking at spots in maharashtra's future state government. Abstaining works for the bjp as well.
G_B_ Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 The big hitch will be the massive ego of Amma. She is already pissed of at the popularity of Modi even ignored Cho recently because he is singing praises of Modi :cantstop: Remember Vajpayee nightmare quotes on Jaya Religion never came into the Lankan issue its mainly about ethinicity.But that wont dither Amma she isnt that pro when it comes to Lankan tamil issues. Even angered majority of Lankan tamil supporters (including Vaiko) by demolishing the war memorial built for war victims of Lanka in Thanjavur last month because it was few centi meters :cantstop: into govt highway the bjp at that time decided to govern with 181 seats. If the bjp gets 200 seats, the dynamics are going to be very different. If bjp+sena+akali+smaller parties get 220 seats, then they will replace Amma with DMK+ other smaller tamil parties. As things stand Amma is on course for 20 seats. She herself needs 30 to ensure the BJP dont have a viable option in TN if she starts acting up. Secondly Atal Bihari was quite an old and ailing man (knee) when he was PM. Modi is going to be about 62. Nearly the same age of Amma. Religion may not matter to amma, but religion does matter to the core BJP heartlands. I said it will be spun as such to BJP followers (sri lanka issue)
BeautifulGame Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 the bjp at that time decided to govern with 181 seats. If the bjp gets 200 seats, the dynamics are going to be very different. If bjp+sena+akali+smaller parties get 220 seats, then they will replace Amma with DMK+ other smaller tamil parties. As things stand Amma is on course for 20 seats. She herself needs 30 to ensure the BJP dont have a viable option in TN if she starts acting up. Secondly Atal Bihari was quite an old and ailing man (knee) when he was PM. Modi is going to be about 62. Nearly the same age of Amma. Religion may not matter to amma, but religion does matter to the core BJP heartlands. I said it will be spun as such to BJP followers (sri lanka issue) It doesnt matter whether BJP has 200 or 220 if it comes to that they definitely need ADMK support to form govt then Modi has to dance to whims of Jayalalitha. Sometimes dont think most outside TN actually understand ego maniac nature of Amma. I seriously wont be surprised if she asks for Duputy PM as reward for supporting BJP.:cantstop:
G_B_ Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 It doesnt matter whether BJP has 200 or 220 if it comes to that they definitely need ADMK support to form govt then Modi has to dance to whims of Jayalalitha. Sometimes dont think most outside TN actually understand ego maniac nature of Amma. I seriously wont be surprised if she asks for Duputy PM as reward for supporting BJP.:cantstop: then give her that. Its a powerless position. Its not like the USA where if the president dies then vice president becomes president (aka Ford or even Johnson) :cantstop: LOL i will be very happy if she asks for that. Better keep the productive ministries like Finance for capable men/women. Well lets see, Tamil nadu + Pondycherry as per my knowledge is about 40 seats. The BJP probably are going to need 40 seats to form government in the centre in addition to independents (probably 10) + smaller parties + NDA core members Sena+ Akali. So realistically they are looking at Andhra and Tamil nadu for 40 seats. The way i see it, there is a good chance they will get the 20 from Andhra via a mixture of Jagan and TDP (depends how they play it). In TN they will have an option of DMK+ DMDK+ PMK to form 20 or AIADMK to form 20 if current poll results are to be believed. I think there is a big chance DMDK PMK MDMK who were part of the ruling coalition in 1999 (the last two) will be part once again of a BJP government post election no matter what happens. Which leaves a realistic option for the BJP between DMK and AIADMK if AIADMK gets only 20 seats. If the AIADMK gets 30 seats. Then that means the BJP are stuck with them as its going to be hard to get the numbers to form 272.
adi B Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 we believe the allegations are hollow and a lie. Modi your PM candidate has much more serious allegations. He never resigned, did he? have u joined the AAP party?ur posts were in a different tone iirc last july-august
adi B Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 This will influence people lot more to vote for BJP and Modi. Once people realize that there is no third option and people hate Cong to the core, they will support BJP. So as we get closer to the poll, there will be a strong pull from NDA. The numbers will quickly progress towards 250. Yet another big fart of 2013 happened to be JDU. Today, this guy would have been looking at a huge portfolio at the center. "Par bhaiya, humko PM seat chahiye". Biggest loser will be NK in my honest opinion. He was very popular NDA leader and now he gets alienated from big role at the center. Even if he comes back to NDA, it wont be the same respect anymore. absolutely but 250 is a bit far stretched tbh.i think no of seats projected towards bjp is slightly inflated i some states like UP,maharashtra..i think the mood is totally anti congress so it will help bjp alone get minimum 180 seats but dont think it'll be more than 200.. AAP will get some valuable seats from the north,maybe close to 15-20 LS seats.would be interesting to see if needed will they help NDA form the govn? regarding congress,i have no doubt their total tally will go down to double digits.people are intelligent enough not to waste thier votes on congress
cowboysfan Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 how accurate is this CSD poll,were the the ones who predicted a NDA sweep in 2004.
G_B_ Posted January 24, 2014 Posted January 24, 2014 Its not just one poll. Even the ABP-Neilsen and India Today mood of the nation poll are saying the BJP will emerge as things stand and every poll is predicting a 180 plus score for the BJP In the case of headlines today its 188 to the BJP NDA 210
randomGuy Posted January 25, 2014 Posted January 25, 2014 have u joined the AAP party?ur posts were in a different tone iirc last july-august became a member. i like them better than bjp and think tht they acted fine on the dharna issue.
Cevno Posted January 25, 2014 Posted January 25, 2014 Fund Modi rally or land in jail, BJP MP tells mill owner http://www.deccanherald.com/content/362225/fund-modi-rally-land-jail.html BJP running short of funds from big barons ?
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