The BJP thread

[G_B_]

Prashant kishore being solicited by Assam CM - Tarun Gogoi and Punjab CM - Amarinder Singh... Looks like BJP is in for hard times

this is why i say make peace with the guy. You cant fight everybody. 

I dont think the BJP has that much invested in Punjab. Punjab should happen alongside Uttar Pradesh so as along as Kishor is directed there its ok. Keeps him away from Uttar Pradesh.  The bihar results will mean BJP will stick with SAD and its going to be a Badal v Amrinder battle. I dont think there is going to be an issue of projection for NDA in Punjab.

As far as Assam goes, I think this is where the BJP need to be wise and offer Kishor the role. The BJP have a real chance in Assam. At the very least they need to ensure Congress does not form government in that state.

Congress atm is Karnataka Kerala and Assam + small states. You take away Kerala and Assam and the Congress will be reeling. Its important more than the BJP winning they stop the Congress from retaining Assam

 

[G_B_]

Whats also becoming clear is Indian politics is becoming personality centric. 2014 The Modi wave was strong enough to get away with flaws.

For Uttar Pradesh BJP have to project somebody. I think Rajnath Singh might just suit that bill. While he is the one who wrecked the BJP in that state over the last decade. He is the only pan UP local face the BJP have.

Similarly in Assam BJP need to project somebody. Be in Mr Sarma, State president Bhattachaya or somebody from the Sonewal faction. In WB they should project Rupa Ganguly and in Kerala they need to project Rajagopal. 

Edited November 11, 2015 by G_B_

[bulbul]

Rajgopal is too old.

[G_B_]

LDF is bound to field Athutacharan who is older....Chandy himself is 72 and Mani is 82. In that context I think Rajagopals age is not an issue

[bulbul]

LDF is bound to field Athutacharan who is older....Chandy himself is 72 and Mani is 82. In that context I think Rajagopals age is not an issue

They are proven leaders.leaders. Rajgopal never won anything.

[G_B_]

They are proven leaders.leaders. Rajgopal never won anything.

BJP wants to increase vote share. He is good enough for that. He campaigned heavily in local polls and party vote share increased from 10 to 18%.

 

 

[bulbul]

BJP wants to increase vote share. He is good enough for that. He campaigned heavily in local polls and party vote share increased from 10 to 18%.

 

 

Corporation votes will not translate to Assembly always..any way as of now there is not other option, still not convinced with him though. May be getting Tharoor will be a good idea [Not sure about Sunanda issue though]

[bulbul]

the BBMP was a poisoned chalice. I am glad the BJP did not go with the Jd(s). They proved their electoral mettle by winning the BBMP with 40% of the vote. But the BBMP is a poorly funded body.Come 2018 the Congress and Jd(s) wont have anybody to blame. Otherwise poor state of Bangaluru roads would have been an agitation against the BJP in Bangalore. Considering the BJP are strong in northern Karnataka with the SDPI making inroads at the congress expense they need to sweep Bangaluru. I am talking close to 25-30 seats the BJP should gain to make up for their weaker areas in the southern region. 

Yes i know the Jd(s) in particular have stronger leaders from that community. Which is why you need to make a cut into the said community.

Things are not so simple..CM Siddu have a movement ,AHINDA [ minorities/backward catses etc] so have a good vote bank. Tippu issue also one ploy to consolidate minority votes. Ashoka doesn't have mass appeal as he is mostly limited to Bangalore. Yeddy is the best bet as of now.

[RedFever]

Things are not so simple..CM Siddu have a movement ,AHINDA [ minorities/backward catses etc] so have a good vote bank. Tippu issue also one ploy to consolidate minority votes. Ashoka doesn't have mass appeal as he is mostly limited to Bangalore. Yeddy is the best bet as of now.

You can also add "Intellectuals/ Rationalists" like some of our fellow posters to that vote-bank.

[bulbul]

You can also add "Intellectuals/ Rationalists" like some of our fellow posters to that vote-bank.

They can support from outside, Siddu doesn't care much about them though 

.There is one possibility though, if Con party doesn't make him CM candidate again he will walk away.

[G_B_]

Things are not so simple..CM Siddu have a movement ,AHINDA [ minorities/backward catses etc] so have a good vote bank. Tippu issue also one ploy to consolidate minority votes. Ashoka doesn't have mass appeal as he is mostly limited to Bangalore. Yeddy is the best bet as of now.

SDPI has made enough inroads into congress votes in Bangalore and north. They should get about 4-5% of the vote in the assembly.

[diga]

^ nice opportunity for BJP to attract some votes / leaders from the vokkaliga-gowda community after tipu-kempegowda controversy...

[amiret]

"The Party has been emasculated in the last one year ":

 

 

[G_B_]

I think its fair one this point whereby a review needs to be conducted by an independent person. Specifically to these points I have thought of. This however should have been said in private. Its not as if Advani himself was really victorious. Airing laundry is public they do come across as being bitter.

(a) Why are BJP allies in these big states failing so badly? In maharashtra allies won 1 on 30 seats in bihar 7 on 86. In both cases I feel BJP would have done better had they simply contested alone. Is there a case whereby BJP voters dont want to vote for these smaller outfits?  Does it make sense for the BJP to simply contest all in upcoming elections.

(b) Sidelining local leaders. IMO when it comes to state elections there needs to be a local face or faces which Modi can complement. I dont think for eg many people knew Shah in rural Bihar.  You dont have to project a CM candidate but people need to know who your local leaders are.

With regards to a consensus character hmm i am not sure about that. Modi has earned his spot at the top. Till 2019 he has the right to make the calls he sees fit. I personally think Shah needs to go. BJP's local leaders especially need space. I do hope BJP go it alone in Assam and UP two states in which they have a chance. I dont think seat sharing is the forte of BJP under Modi. Assam especially BJP need to establish presence everywhere even if they lose. It will build the party for the future. 

Edited November 12, 2015 by G_B_

[G_B_]

^ nice opportunity for BJP to attract some votes / leaders from the vokkaliga-gowda community after tipu-kempegowda controversy...

it should die down by 2018.

But if siddu continues along the same path i think congress high command might be forced to remove him. On the flip side they know he commands loyalty of 20 mla. So their government will fall. If the congress end up being shunted out of kerala and assam then IMO siddu will stay as congress wont want to rock the boat. But if congress retain both states they might just rock the boat in karnataka.

[diga]

Seems Arun Shourie met Prashant kishor too..whats cooking either way?

 

[diga]

Most probably Prashant Kishore to sign up with Cong for UP elections... is it simply accepting a new challenge or good old fashioned revenge ?

[G_B_]

I told you before... its better to have kishor within the tent than outside the tent.

Edited November 19, 2015 by G_B_

[Singh bling]

By-polls results: Congress triumphs in MP, BJP debuts in Manipur

The BJP, reeling from the Bihar debacle, lost a high-stakes poll battle in Madhya Pradesh but debuted in the Manipur assembly on Tuesday as results were declared for by-elections on about half a dozen Lok Sabha and assembly seats across four states.

The defeat at the Jhabua-Ratlam parliamentary seat is being seen as a major embarrassment for the ruling party and personal loss for chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan who toured the constituency for a week and addressed more than 40 rallies while a dozen state ministers camped there for days.

Former union minister Kantilal Bhuria from the Congress buried the BJP’s Nirmala Bhuria under a landslide win, upsetting the saffron party’s calculations pinned on a sympathy wave for its candidate whose father and sitting MP, Dileep Singh Bhuria, died recently.

The victory came as a shot in the arm for the Congress that has been out of power in the state for over a decade but was buoyed by a spectacular win in the Bihar polls this month in alliance with the JD(U) and RJD.

The Lok Sabha seat, which the BJP won for the first time in 2014. includes the Petlawad region where a devastating blast triggered by mining explosives killed over 100 people two months ago.

Analysts said the defeat is likely to bruise the image of three-term CM Chouhan, who is already battling the fallout of the multi-crore Vyapam test-rigging scandal.

Several witnesses and people connected to the scam have died under mysterious circumstances in recent months, triggering charges that powerful politicians with links to the government were pulling the strings.

The BJP, however, retained the Dewas assembly constituency where its candidate Gayatri Raje Puar won by over 30,000 votes after the seat fell vacant on the death of its legislator, Tukojirao Pawar.

The party also made a stunning debut in the Manipur assembly, defeating the ruling Congress on two seats that underscored its growing clout in the northeastern state which will go to the polls in 2017.

In neighbouring Mizoram, former health minister Lal Thanzara of the Congress won the bypoll to the Aizawl North-III assembly constituency with a thumping margin after having to vacate the seat over allegations of conflict of interest.

The party, however, suffered a defeat in Meghalaya as the opposition Hill State Democratic Party (HSPDP) held on to the Nongstoin assembly seat.

Down south, the ruling TRS retained the Warangal (SC) Lok Sabha seat in Telangana as its candidate, Pasunoori Dayakar, won by a massive margin of nearly 460,000 votes, defeating the candidates of the Congress and a BJP-TDP combine.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/by-poll-results-congress-triumphs-in-mp-bjp-debuts-in-manipur/story-Twe51EDpEXssSWAM0Tc2KO.html

The situation is looking bad  for BJP 

[kabbirann]

So Ramdev has been gifted an island by bjp.