Texan Posted March 29, 2015 Posted March 29, 2015 Hindus are like 40%... Further CPIM has a lot of hindu support. Things are changing slowly. Rule out minority votes completely. According to 2001 census, Hindus were 56% of population. I don't remeber what the religion wise break-up was for 2011, but it has surely not gone down to 40%.
Malcolm Merlyn Posted March 29, 2015 Posted March 29, 2015 Hindus are like 40%... Further CPIM has a lot of hindu support. Things are changing slowly. Rule out minority votes completely. Nopes Hindus are still majority more like 54%.
G_B_ Posted March 29, 2015 Posted March 29, 2015 look the point is that the BJP even if they dont win states have a good presence in all major/medium size states (population more than 20 million). You look at JnK and the BJP won 3 out of 6 seats. The BJP for example have never had a CM in Bihar but have a good presence in the state. They only recently won 1 assembly seat in WB i believe breaking their duck. This is why i am not a big fan of Advani, the BJP barring gains in Karnataka 2008 and Bihar (with aid of Nitish) did not expand and went backwards in places like Orissa and crucially Uttar Pradesh. From 2005 to 2013 the BJP was mostly in decline with the occasional gain. In places like WB TN Kerala there were no gains. They remained irrelevant. Clearly those 8 years are costing BJP a lot now in terms of seats in rajya sabha etc.
G_B_ Posted March 29, 2015 Posted March 29, 2015 Also like to add the BJP under Rajnath and Gadkari as president were really ineffective. I remember when the BJP lost Rajasthan in 2008. It was a self inflicted wound due to factionalism.
Texan Posted March 29, 2015 Posted March 29, 2015 look the point is that the BJP even if they dont win states have a good presence in all major/medium size states (population more than 20 million). You look at JnK and the BJP won 3 out of 6 seats. The BJP for example have never had a CM in Bihar but have a good presence in the state. They only recently won 1 assembly seat in WB i believe breaking their duck. This is why i am not a big fan of Advani, the BJP barring gains in Karnataka 2008 and Bihar (with aid of Nitish) did not expand and went backwards in places like Orissa and crucially Uttar Pradesh. From 2005 to 2013 the BJP was mostly in decline with the occasional gain. In places like WB TN Kerala there were no gains. They remained irrelevant. Clearly those 8 years are costing BJP a lot now in terms of seats in rajya sabha etc. Agreed completely. Now, at least efforts are being made to break into the states where they had no presence. Earlier, they would just try to bank on allies or worse still just give up and not even bother to campaign or have any membership drives. I think the hardest part though is breaking into South India. Despite BJP having leaders like Venkaiah Naidu, Nirmala Setharaman, with South Indian origins, they are not really mass leaders and BJP is still largely perceived as a North Indian party. So, Kerala, TN, AP, Telangana still look like targets they won't be able to hit even by 2019.
Yoda-esque Posted March 29, 2015 Posted March 29, 2015 BJP becomes largest political party in the world
G_B_ Posted March 30, 2015 Posted March 30, 2015 Agreed completely. Now, at least efforts are being made to break into the states where they had no presence. Earlier, they would just try to bank on allies or worse still just give up and not even bother to campaign or have any membership drives. I think the hardest part though is breaking into South India. Despite BJP having leaders like Venkaiah Naidu, Nirmala Setharaman, with South Indian origins, they are not really mass leaders and BJP is still largely perceived as a North Indian party. So, Kerala, TN, AP, Telangana still look like targets they won't be able to hit even by 2019. Telagana is wide open. There are many political outfits in a new state, an environment in which the BJP can establish gains. Even in Andhra Pradesh BJP can become a kingmaker. The situation is highly dynamic in both these states. YSR congress at the moment is bleeding leaders to the TDP and the BJP. The rumours of Jagan Reddy quitting politics and handing over his party to the BJP in return for immunity is constantly doing the rounds. Its barely been a year and the Naidu is effectively bleeding him of his district leaders. The problem for the BJP is Kerala and TN. In TN the AIADMK are so ahead of everybody that even if the BJP doubles its vote share from last assembly to say 5-6% it wont matter. Similarly in kerela, the UDF and LDF constantly poll 40% or more as alliances. Shutting the door on any party not part of this coalition to make serious gains. What you need in kerala is Indian muslim league congress cpm and cpi contesting independently of each other. Thats where the BJP has its chance. The BJP polled 10% in the lok sabha so if it maintains its performance there (as the bjp will be focusing on WB and Assam) then IMO its a good performance and should net them 1-2 seats breaking their duck. This is assuming elections happen in batches as planned.
G_B_ Posted March 30, 2015 Posted March 30, 2015 BJP becomes largest political party in the world i somehow doubt those figures. will wait for the number if at all to touch 10 crore.
G_B_ Posted April 8, 2015 Posted April 8, 2015 Charkhari bypoll: Ex-Maya MoS canvassing for ex-BSP MP’s son http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/lucknow/charkhari-bypoll-ex-maya-mos-canvassing-for-ex-bsp-mps-son/ sums up the bjp in UP at the moment. They should change name from BJP in UP to Bahujan Janata Party. deeply unhealthy. by my estimates (and S=G can correct me) some 30-40% of current BJP members in UP have defected to the party in the last 2 years. I dont mind defections but there needs to be some control so as to retain your core character.
Sachin=GOD Posted April 8, 2015 Posted April 8, 2015 Charkhari bypoll: Ex-Maya MoS canvassing for ex-BSP MP’s son http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/lucknow/charkhari-bypoll-ex-maya-mos-canvassing-for-ex-bsp-mps-son/ sums up the bjp in UP at the moment. They should change name from BJP in UP to Bahujan Janata Party. deeply unhealthy. by my estimates (and S=G can correct me) some 30-40% of current BJP members in UP have defected to the party in the last 2 years. I dont mind defections but there needs to be some control so as to retain your core character. Yup. Maybe not workers but certainly a very unhealthy percentage of leaders in UP BJP are now from other parties. And they all have only one aim - getting a ticket. If they think BJP won't win in 2017 most of them will again jump ship to another party. They command neither respect nor loyalty of BJP workers who have been disillusioned by having their own leaders being ignored.
G_B_ Posted April 9, 2015 Posted April 9, 2015 based on reports coming out the BJP is losing ground in Bihar. Party organisation is getting ragged and lacks direction. If the Janata pariwar can retain its shape they have won. The BJP in Bihar needs a strong grip from central command right now. Shah needs to drop everything and start micro managing for there to be any change.
Sachin=GOD Posted April 10, 2015 Posted April 10, 2015 based on reports coming out the BJP is losing ground in Bihar. Party organisation is getting ragged and lacks direction. If the Janata pariwar can retain its shape they have won. The BJP in Bihar needs a strong grip from central command right now. Shah needs to drop everything and start micro managing for there to be any change. What BJP needs is to give command to the people on the ground instead of parachuting managers from all over India. Just make Sushil Modi the campaign chair (if they don't want to make him CM candidate) and he can do the job IMO. Its going to be tough but can be done.
G_B_ Posted April 10, 2015 Posted April 10, 2015 that is the problem in bihar there are too many leaders. They are not united under one banner.
Sachin=GOD Posted April 10, 2015 Posted April 10, 2015 ^There are many leaders but very few 'big' leaders so it shouldn't be too much of a problem. Also, I would think that Sushil Modi, by virtue of being Deputy CM for so long, would be an automatic and acceptable choice if BJP wants to unite the party under one person in Bihar.
Sachin=GOD Posted April 10, 2015 Posted April 10, 2015 Smriti, A fading memory? http://www.outlookindia.com/article/Smriti-A-Fading-Memory/293990 Raises many points that a lot of BJP leaders have been saying since she became a minister. She has become too arrogant and is not good enough to run such a big department right now. Should be sent to a smaller ministry which she can manage or should be dropped till she improves her attitude. BTW also check out the other stories on her in this issue of Outlook.
Sachin=GOD Posted April 10, 2015 Posted April 10, 2015 [http://pgresize] TRIBHUVAN TIWARI SMRITI IRANI No Jottings, The Babu Has Left The Building It’s not even been a year but it’s almost a bloodbath at the HRD ministry as officials, fed up with Ms Irani’s brazen antics, rush for the exits http://www.outlookindia.com/article/No-Jottings-The-Babu-Has-Left-The-Building/293991 Wow!!!
RedFever Posted April 10, 2015 Posted April 10, 2015 ^^ Do you really expect unbiased articles from Outlook :giggle:
Sachin=GOD Posted April 10, 2015 Posted April 10, 2015 ^^ Do you really expect unbiased articles from Outlook :giggle: Its been said for a long time that she has become very arrogant and despite not knowing much about HRD, she has been forcing her views on experts from IIT/IIM and other institutes which has caused conflicts with directors/board of directors of various institues. Just because she had backing of Modi she has become too full of herself. So this story is not really biased. She definitely has LOTS of potential and can have a long future in politics but right now she needs to be taught a lesson in humility. Should be removed as HRD minister.
velu Posted April 10, 2015 Posted April 10, 2015 whenever amit shah visit chennai , one or two celebrates are joining BJP , who are as corrupt as anyone else :giggle:
G_B_ Posted April 15, 2015 Posted April 15, 2015 Charkhari bypoll: Ex-Maya MoS canvassing for ex-BSP MP’s son http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/lucknow/charkhari-bypoll-ex-maya-mos-canvassing-for-ex-bsp-mps-son/ sums up the bjp in UP at the moment. They should change name from BJP in UP to Bahujan Janata Party. deeply unhealthy. by my estimates (and S=G can correct me) some 30-40% of current BJP members in UP have defected to the party in the last 2 years. I dont mind defections but there needs to be some control so as to retain your core character. and they have lost this one to the SP.... Thats like 11-12 bypoll losses in a row for the BJP in in Uttar Pradesh. Seriously bad signs for the party. Quite a big margin of victory as well. I am starting to think the SP will retain UP in 2017 In a balanced view this seat was an SP seat to begin with. Seems all the bypolls are going with the ruling party at the state level government. But still BJP needs to target seats like this if it is to form government.
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