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****Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2014 Thread***

G_B_

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Texan Grand Master

Texan

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I sense something has happened with the BJP allies...some kind of sabotage or something... 1 out of 30 is huge miss....I am sure the BJP are gonna review this...they could have definately won 140+ if they would have fought all 288...
Probably because the allies contested primarily in the Cong-NCP bastions in the sugarcane belt.
G_B_ Grand Master

G_B_

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the result is along expected lines. Sad i missed the count due to a conference Some points (1) Despite winning 63 seats and coming second i will feel a bit uncomfortable as the sena. In mumbai they won 14 while BJP won 15. Yes the dynamics of the BMC are different. But its still its a big warning sign. They need to merge with the MNS to be sure of winning the BMC. Will give them a winning vote %. In fairness to the Sena they finished second in many seats. Most of the seats in mumbai were sena v somebody. However, it is the loss of Thane city their spiritual home which would have hurt them the most. ITs been some odd set of results for the Sena. Got more than most would have expected in Marathwada for eg. BJP need to cling onto Ramdas Athawale. Though his outfit did not win many seats. He gave them some crucial gains in seats in mumbai. Probably added 5 to their count. (2) Narayan Rane is finished in politics in maha. This leaves Konkan open for the Sena. Ashok Chavan will be the new leader for the congress in Maha IMO (3) Raj T is clinging by a thread. He needs to merge with the Sena. Only way he can retain Nashik municipal corporation. The losses in Nashik city and Shivadi in Mumbai were huge blows. (4) The BJP and the sena will have to come together for the next elections. Ajit Pawar has proved his point in terms of number of seats. Congress + NCP got 38% of the vote. The NCP IMO blew it. Had they stuck with the congress they would have crushed everybody. Sena and BJP included. The sena would have practically been wiped out. (5) The BJP has made some crucial inroads in rural maharashtra. Thats where it has probably put the sena behind it. It has emerged as the party which has the trust of the farmers.

surajmal Newbie

surajmal

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If Namo is serious about reforms, I can't see any alliance with SS. They will be a pain of the worst kind. The "unspoken" alliance with NCP is the way to go. And over the next year, try to poach 22 MLAs from the other 3 parties. Again it is extremely important that the reform program be rolled out over the next 1-2 years if BJP wants to reap dividends in 2019. Another thing I have noticed is how sincere the opinion makers are acting in giving advice to Congis to prevent total wipeout: change leadership, change strategy bla bla bla. It is more about the saving the ecosystem and by consequence their asses and less about Congress. That is why you will see that over the coming weeks and months, the sickular crowd will actually become one of the fiercest opponents of dynasty. Nobody more self centered than this "liberal" crowd. I'm gonna enjoy seeing the pot pourri of jhollawalahs and gucci crowd singing bhajans to RSS before the 2019 elections.

G_B_ Grand Master

G_B_

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And on the issue of the NCP They cannot be trusted. If there is a riot etc. They will drop the BJP as quickly as possible and push for elections again. So your barely 1-2 years into governance and back to election. Better to do a deal with the sena. The MNS is the key in all of this. If the sena and Mns merge the sena does not need to bjp in the bmc. They will be more than happy to sit back and let the ncp.So the BJP need to get Raj T on side. Its his 28 seats in the BMC which the sena covets at the moment. From what i know the NCP approached the sena first to form a sena-ncp-congress combo. But was rejected outright by the Sena.

G_B_ Grand Master

G_B_

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and looking purely at numbers BJP have 122 Allies 1 Within the others are Bahujan Aghadi who have 3 and MIM who have 3. They are not going to ally with the BJP come what may. As are commies etc. Ie these extreme left leaning parties. So the way i see it with everybody else without the major parites the BJP are on 135. They need 145. If the BJP cannot form government with the sena, even if they manage to get support from the NCP from the outside. How exactly is the BJP CM going to pass any policy through the house? Fine you have the seat. But you are a lame duck depending on a party not even part of government to aid you in passing laws.

surajmal Newbie

surajmal

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You ensure cooperation via CBI. Like Congress used to do with BSP and SP. If/when the opportunity is there to poach defectors, I'm damn sure Shah and Co. will jump on it without abandon. So whatever is the arrangement, will be temporary in nature. Besides, If you have already gambled big, why pussyfoot now?

G_B_ Grand Master

G_B_

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You ensure cooperation via CBI. Like Congress used to do with BSP and SP. If/when the opportunity is there to poach defectors' date=' I'm damn sure Shah and Co. will jump on it without abandon. So whatever is the arrangement, will be temporary in nature. Besides, If you have already gambled big, why pussyfoot now?[/quote'] The CBI never worked in maha. Thats cause despite being in different parties the politicians are mostly all good friends of each other. Gadkari and Balasaheb shared many joint ventures. Case in point. You open a probe of Uddhav T, the heat will land on the Munde family. The Thakarey Mahajan and Munde families are extremely close to each other. Secondly, the BJP are made up of candidates and winner who defected from the NCP Congress. They might shoot themselves in the foot. So rather than all these. Offer the sena a fair deal. The sena are on page with the BJP on most social issues. You can make use of the NCP for issues like Jataipur etc. Offer the sena some governorship. These posts are big on ceremonial value yet dont really have any real powers. It will massage the ego of the shiv sena. Exactly the sort of thing the bjp needs to offer them.
surajmal Newbie

surajmal

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Meh, all cooperation with SS depends if UT is willing to come off his high perch. Shah has no reason to suffer SS' ways like BJP used to in the old days. We will see what happens. At least, there will be a NDA govt.

G_B_ Grand Master

G_B_

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Meh' date=' all cooperation with SS depends if UT is willing to come off his high perch. Shah has no reason to suffer SS' ways like BJP used to in the old days. We will see what happens. At least, there will be a NDA govt.[/quote'] its a question of, do you suffer uddhav or do you make a deal with the devil (pawar) Shiv Sena will not extend unsolicited support to BJP: Uddhav Thackeray Uddhav says if BJP is okay with NCP’s support, ‘let them go with NCP’ Read more at: http://www.livemint.com/Politics/Jh9PHLCk65NY2YgzLNTCqJ/Shiv-Sena-not-under-pressure-to-join-BJPled-govt-Sanjay-Ra.html?utm_source=copy Looks like the sena have made their stance clear. Sad in a way. Sena will have their own leader of opposition.
G_B_ Grand Master

G_B_

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NCP are a maratha ethnic party with add ons Sena are a pan marathi party in the mumbai region. These two parties have a concentrated vote. As far as BJP goes, Marathwada let the party down. They have done as expected in viderbha. With Gopinath Munde leading the charge i feel the BJP would have won 150-160 on their own. He was the son of marathwada.

G_B_ Grand Master

G_B_

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and speaking of marathwada, the bjp need to ensure they promote Punkaja munde in that region. The congress have Ashok Chavan from there. You dont want a Vilasrao Deshmukh type situation whereby Gopinath Munde was known in Marathwada but Vilasrao Deshmukh was the bigger star. Already with Fadnavis being named as a CM candidate the Munde faction in marathwada is not particularly happy. They need to offer Punkaja a high profile role. Such as minister of industries etc or they need to offer her a big role in central cabinet.

Raghav_12 Newbie

Raghav_12

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Going with BJP now may spell political suicide for Shivsena and that is why they are taking so long in deciding. BJP is established big brother now and have infra to fight in more than 250 seats. By being with BJP if would get further marginalized and lose its identity. They may be trying to find an answer in next election how many seats BJP will throw to them. I am sure many in SS would be think if being main opposition would help it more in maintaining it's identity in state.

G_B_ Grand Master

G_B_

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Going with BJP now may spell political suicide for Shivsena and that is why they are taking so long in deciding. BJP is established big brother now and have infra to fight in more than 250 seats. By being with BJP if would get further marginalized and lose its identity. They may be trying to find an answer in next election how many seats BJP will throw to them. I am sure many in SS would be think if being main opposition would help it more in maintaining it's identity in state.
+1 its the BMC they care about more now. Which is why the MNS is the key with their 28 seats in the BMC. If the sena can merge with the mns then they will have enough to retian control without the bjp. and about the MNS, there is no point just looking at their one seat. MNS went soft on the sena. Thats why they lost. I think both cousins realised that they need to work together. So expact some sort of alliance or sorts. I feel they made a deal pre poll. Its also going to be hard for the bjp to retain all 4 of its allies. Athavale especially is not happy with the performance of his party. So expect him to break from the BJP alliance at some point.
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