Texan Posted February 7, 2015 Author Posted February 7, 2015 Hopefully they'll do better than what BJP has done in delhi MCD & congress in the assembly for more than last 10 years. Okay. But I asked a specific question - is the manifesto realistic? I already know that you think they will do better than BJP and Congress.
G_B_ Posted February 7, 2015 Posted February 7, 2015 And this 31% analysis is not right. The BJP has polled 50% or close in Rajasthan MP and GUj, they polled in the 40%-50% region in places like Chhatisgrah and Jharkhand. The Sena and BJP fought independently in Maharashtra and still ended up with close to 50% of the vote put together (49% actually) in the assembly elections. That 31% lok sabha vote is heavily concentrated in certain regions. Wrong to say BJP were range bound. Clearly in Delhi the SC and OBC communities have come out in favour for AAP. BJP ethnic and caste composition is not the same all over India.
Shivaji bhonsle Posted February 7, 2015 Posted February 7, 2015 so do tell me, why exactly have they won in places like Rajasthan? They have won even before Modi. In the lok sabha and assembly elections the BJP in Rajasthan got 50 plus % of the vote in a straight fight with the congress. I really dont know where this analysis is coming from? Ya. You got that right. That's what I am saying. Bjp will get just 30-32% ain't a valid argument. In Delhi people were fed up with Congress. All the anti incumbency votes got divided between AAP and BJP. Its just that people want reduced electricity and water bills, corruption free government which was promised by AAP and they did reduced the electricity and water bills during their 49 days government. People want that back.
Yoda-esque Posted February 7, 2015 Posted February 7, 2015 Not true. Bjp would have got 60-70% votes if there was no AAP in Delhi. Congress wouldn't have got more than 25% in Delhi. Not talking Congress
cowboysfan Posted February 7, 2015 Posted February 7, 2015 so do tell me, why exactly have they won in places like Rajasthan? They have won even before Modi. In the lok sabha and assembly elections the BJP in Rajasthan got 50 plus % of the vote in a straight fight with the congress. I really dont know where this analysis is coming from? not sure about rajastan but if JD becomes irrelevant in karnataka then BJP will find it much tougher to win the state elections especially in the cities where minority votes will be more crucial in a straight fight.
G_B_ Posted February 7, 2015 Posted February 7, 2015 Ya. You got that right. That's what I am saying. Bjp will get just 30-32% ain't a valid argument. In Delhi people were fed up with Congress. All the anti incumbency votes got divided between AAP and BJP. Its just that people want reduced electricity and water bills' date=' corruption free government which was promised by AAP and they did reduced the electricity and water bills during their 49 days government. People want that back.[/quote'] most exit polls are saying BJP got about 35% of the vote as a minimum. The AAP % ranges from 42% to 50% In the 2014 lok sabha polls BJP got about 42% of the total vote. So clearly there has been a 7% drop in the BJP's vote share. This argument whereby BJP is somehow range bound will not hold water in Delhi. JnK probably you are right. Not Delhi
Shivaji bhonsle Posted February 7, 2015 Posted February 7, 2015 Not talking Congress well, if bjp gets 70% votes, someone else has to get the remaining votes. Congress would have got all the Muslim votes and the traditional voters who voted for Congress would have got still voted for Congress. The point is AAP managed to get 75-80% of Muslim votes . Muslims have completely shifted towards AAP. Also, it was a master stroke by Owaisi not to contest in Delhi elections which could have split the Muslim vote %.
G_B_ Posted February 7, 2015 Posted February 7, 2015 not sure about rajastan but if JD becomes irrelevant in karnataka then BJP will find it much tougher to win the state elections especially in the cities where minority votes will be more crucial in a straight fight. Rajasthan has a higher minority % in Karnataka. Jd(s) vote rests on Vokkaliga's more than minorities. No reason why the BJP cannot attract them. If anything the BJP have actively started to attract them. In assembly elections in 2008 and even lok sabha 2014 the BJP have chalked up 40% plus I would actually welcome a straight fight with the congress.
Raghav_12 Posted February 7, 2015 Posted February 7, 2015 I meant the voters. They deserve a raging Somnath Bharti patrolling the streets and making innocent girls forcibly pee in a cup. still better than killing college girls in name of terrorists.
Shivaji bhonsle Posted February 7, 2015 Posted February 7, 2015 most exit polls are saying BJP got about 35% of the vote as a minimum. The AAP % ranges from 42% to 50% In the 2014 lok sabha polls BJP got about 42% of the total vote. So clearly there has been a 7% drop in the BJP's vote share. This argument whereby BJP is somehow range bound will not hold water in Delhi. JnK probably you are right. Not Delhi There is a drop in bjp vote % because they are voting for the state. If the elections are held tomorrow for loksabha, the 7% will again vote for bjp. Probably more. Take me for example. I voted for bjp in loksabha but voted for AAP now.
Sachin=GOD Posted February 7, 2015 Posted February 7, 2015 You know what would be funny - AAP winning and then Modi making Kiran Bedi the LG of Delhi
seedhi Posted February 7, 2015 Posted February 7, 2015 Don't think AAP will be able to govern Delhi anyway. It is fiscally impossible for them to fulfill their moanifesto (yes, thats what it is). 15 lakh CCTVs? Lol!
Sachin=GOD Posted February 7, 2015 Posted February 7, 2015 @SirZaidHamid Youths of Noida, Ghaziabad are the happiest. Free ka laptop can now be used with free WiFi. LOL
Texan Posted February 7, 2015 Author Posted February 7, 2015 still better than killing college girls in name of terrorists. Better than letting terrorists have a free reign in the name of appeasement politics.
randomGuy Posted February 7, 2015 Posted February 7, 2015 Bjp will lose where ever AAP enters. Rest all states where bjp has decent presence -bjp will win, doesn't matter if its a bipolar contest. AAP has different kind of appeal.
Texan Posted February 7, 2015 Author Posted February 7, 2015 Bjp will lose where ever AAP enters. Rest all states where bjp has decent presence -bjp will win, doesn't matter if its a bipolar contest. AAP has different kind of appeal. They entered LS elections all over India. What happened then?
Yoda-esque Posted February 7, 2015 Posted February 7, 2015 Bjp will lose where ever AAP enters. Rest all states where bjp has decent presence -bjp will win, doesn't matter if its a bipolar contest. AAP has different kind of appeal. Only if it's bipolar not otherwise..
FischerTal Posted February 7, 2015 Posted February 7, 2015 still better than killing college girls in name of terrorists. college girls that are listed on Lashkar e toiba's website of martyrs.
Shivaji bhonsle Posted February 7, 2015 Posted February 7, 2015 Bjp will lose where ever AAP enters. Rest all states where bjp has decent presence -bjp will win, doesn't matter if its a bipolar contest. AAP has different kind of appeal. AAP will lose next time if they don't fulfill their promises. People will get tired of AAP if they continue to do dharnas instead of delivering their promise.
Texan Posted February 7, 2015 Author Posted February 7, 2015 AAP will lose next time if they don't fulfill their promises. People will get tired of AAP if they continue to do dharnas instead of delivering their promise. Do you really believe they can fulfill all items on their manifesto? 500 schools, 15 lakh CCTVs, free water, half electricity, without bankrupting Delhi.
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