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Success and achievements of demonetisation


bharathh

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4 minutes ago, Trichromatic said:

 

There is hardly any clarity on intent of DeMo, let alone it's benefits.

 

That can be entirely separate discussion where challenges specific to India can be posted and how it has been tackled around the world. Some may be applicable to Indian scenario with modification.

Well, the stated intent was to bring black money into circulation.  Seems like there was partial success, but was it worth the cost?

 

To me, the question becomes:  Should it even be a priority to bring black money into circulation?  If the answer is Yes, what is the most effective, least disruptive way to accomplish it?    

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11 minutes ago, BacktoCricaddict said:

Well, the stated intent was to bring black money into circulation.  Seems like there was partial success, but was it worth the cost?

 

To me, the question becomes:  Should it even be a priority to bring black money into circulation?  If the answer is Yes, what is the most effective, least disruptive way to accomplish it?    

 

Calling it even partial success would be overestimating the impact? It fell well short of target. It's like collecting pennies by losing fortune.

 

 Cost was huge, gains were miniscule. 

 

Just to compare - total value of scams during 10 years of UPA govt would be around 5 lakhs crore. Someone can correct me if I am wrong, that's just a ballpark figure.

 

 

Quote

He, however, said that cost of demonetisation was 1-2 per cent of the GDP.

"Let's say if there is loss of 1.5% GDP then it is Rs. 2 lakh crore plus amount," former RBI governor said.

 

https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/demonetisation-came-at-a-huge-cost-for-indian-economy-says-raghuram-rajan-117090701569_1.html#:~:text=Demonetisation came at a huge cost for Indian economy%2C says Raghuram Rajan,-ANI | New Delhi&text=He said that demonetisation has,was conveyed to the government.

 

If numbers are anywhere close to what Raghuram Rajan is claiming then it would mean that whatever India lost due to scams during UPA rule, not sure what % of 5 lakhs crore can be considered as loss, even if it is as high as 50%, then Modi govt lost that much in 1 year with single move.

 

Be it corruption of UPA govt or be it incompetence of BJP govt, both are making severe negative impact on Indian public. 

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11 minutes ago, Trichromatic said:

Be it corruption of UPA govt or be it incompetence of BJP govt, both are making severe negative impact on Indian public. 

In UPA's case, the money went to the politicians and their minions. In BJP's case, who benefited when money is lost in both cases. It may not be monetary gain but can be gain in other factors like increase in market share of certain businesses or other things

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1 hour ago, Trichromatic said:

 

And that 7% YoY was lowest rise in total number of taxpayers in 5 years.

 

So far,

 

10k crores flushed out of system at cost of 8k crores in printing new notes. 

 

Taxpayers growth slowed down.

 

Indian economy lost 1-2% of GDP which could be probably 1 lakh crore (disclaimer - all speculation, economy lost, but no official estimate on how much and we won't get that).

 

Harship faced by common people.

 

But lot of mythical benefits which are mostly opinion based as it was just a theorectically good plan with incompetent government. 

 

 

I still stand by the benefits that I mentioned in the OP. The situation of the banks and the money deposited in them is not opinion. Nor is the fact that digital payments have taken off big time and the number of people with bank accounts and those that use them has skyrocketed. All facts and not opinion. Culling the informal sector was a much needed shakeup. Hopefully, as GST and other reforms kick in, our formal economy keeps growing in leaps and bounds.

 

Demo IMO will show benefits in the long term. It is not a short term play. Accepted there have been a lot of short term pains - but those are to be expected in a country that has long been under the influence of an informal economy.

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18 minutes ago, bharathh said:

I still stand by the benefits that I mentioned in the OP. The situation of the banks and the money deposited in them is not opinion. Nor is the fact that digital payments have taken off big time and the number of people with bank accounts and those that use them has skyrocketed. All facts and not opinion. Culling the informal sector was a much needed shakeup. Hopefully, as GST and other reforms kick in, our formal economy keeps growing in leaps and bounds.

 

Demo IMO will show benefits in the long term. It is not a short term play. Accepted there have been a lot of short term pains - but those are to be expected in a country that has long been under the influence of an informal economy.

 

Crediting DeMo for that is like being unfair to actual good steps taken by current Govt. 

 

Increasing bank accounts and usage wasn't even objective of DeMo

 

Number of people with bank accounts and people using them has skyrocketed because of Jan Dhan Yojana and transfer of benefits to bank accounts, not because of DeMo.

 

https://pmjdy.gov.in/files/E-Documents/PMJDY_BROCHURE_ENG.pdf

 

Objectives of Jan Dhan Yojana

 

image.png

 

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