zen Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 (edited) TEAM M W L PT NRR GT 9 6 3 12 0.532 LSG 10 5 4 11 0.639 CSK 10 5 4 11 0.329 RR 9 5 4 10 0.800 RCB 9 5 4 10 -0.030 MI 9 5 4 10 -0.373 PBKS 10 5 5 10 -0.472 KKR 9 3 6 6 -0.147 SRH 8 3 5 6 -0.577 DC 9 3 6 6 -0.768 The CSK-LSG washout game has created an interesting scenario where most teams cannot afford to lose more than 1 game. The performance of CSK & LSG could most likely determine the minimum number of wins needed for a team to get into the playoffs (ideally, teams with a negative NRR should aim for 9 wins). If CSK & LSG lose just 1 of their remaining games, each team would have 8 wins and 17 points, which will shut down other teams with 8 wins. If one of these two loses 2 games, it will end up with 7 wins and 15 points, bringing 8 wins into the equation. Remaining games for each team: GT: RR, LSG, MI, SRH, & RCB LSG: GT, SRH, MI, & KKR CSK: MI, DC, KKR, & DC RR: GT, SRH, KKR, RCB, & PK RCB: DC, MI, RR, SRH, & GT MI: CSK, RCB, GT, LSG, & SRH PK: KKR, DC, DC, & RR KKR: SRH, PK, RR, CSK, & LSG SRH: KKR, RR, LSG, GT, RCB, & MI DC: RCB, CSK, PK, PK, & CSK To roughly visualize where the teams stand at the moment, if we give 0.75 chance to win against teams below in the points table, and 0.25 to win against teams above in the points table: GT: 6+3.75 = 9.75 wins, 19.5 points ... win 50% of remaining games, 17 points CSK: 5+3 = 8 wins, 17 points ... win 50% of remaining games, 15 points RR: 5+3.25 = 8.25 wins, 16.5 points ...win 50% of remaining games, 15 points LSG: 5+2.5 = 7.5 wins, 16 points ... win 50% of remaining games, 15 points RCB: 5+2.75 = 7.75 wins, 15.5 points ... win 50% of remaining games, 15 points PK: 5+2.5 = 7.5, 15 points ... win 50% of remaining games, 14 points MI: 5+1.75 = 6.75 wins, 13.5 points ... win 50% of remaining games, 15 points KKR = 3+1.75 = 4.75 wins, 9.5 points ... win 50% of remaining games, 11 points SRH = 3+1.5, 4.5 wins, 9 points ... win 50% of remaining games, 12 points DC = 3+1.25 = 4.25, 8.5 points ... win 50% of remaining games, 11 points Most teams cannot afford to lose more than 1 game (if most teams lose 2, they could be practically out) ... If 8 wins can get a team in, no team is out yet as theoretically some teams can still get to 8 wins by winning all their games (then it would depend on NRR unless both CSK & LSG end up with 8 wins). Edited May 9, 2023 by zen ipl is fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Majestic Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 MI is ahead of PBKS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Majestic Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 PBKS will never qualify. They last qualified to top4 in 2014. Next time it will be in 2047. Under_Score 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zen Posted May 4, 2023 Author Share Posted May 4, 2023 (edited) I would like to see the 4 teams below: GT - back to back titles theme CSK - Dhoni’s farewell season title theme RR - finally another title theme PK - aise phele baar hua hai itne saalo mein theme Edited May 4, 2023 by zen Under_Score 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowl_out Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 So DC plays CSK twice and PK twice as their last 4 games? What an Effed up schedule!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Majestic Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 On 5/4/2023 at 7:15 AM, zen said: I would like to see the 4 teams below: GT - back to back titles theme CSK - Dhoni’s farewell season title theme RR - finally another title theme PK - aise phele baar hua hai itne saalo mein theme Pk has easy games comparatively to others but do they have clutch players? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zen Posted May 5, 2023 Author Share Posted May 5, 2023 4 hours ago, Majestic said: Pk has easy games comparatively to others but do they have clutch players? You don’t necessarily need clutch players in group games as many times teams can win a few games when they have nothing to lose, when certain things go their way (win an imp toss for e.g, get a crucial run out), benefit from an exceptional individual performance (take a great catch, bowl a great over, hit a few 6s), etc. If PK has to win its remaining group games, Dhawan, Livingston, Curran, Rabada/Ellis, and Arshdeep would need to step up. Under_Score 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zen Posted May 7, 2023 Author Share Posted May 7, 2023 TEAM M W L PT NRR GT 11 8 3 16 0.951 CSK 11 6 4 13 0.409 LSG 11 5 5 11 0.294 RR 10 5 5 10 0.448 RCB 10 5 5 10 -0.209 MI 10 5 5 10 -0.454 PBKS 10 5 5 10 -0.472 KKR 10 4 6 8 -0.103 DC 10 4 6 8 -0.529 SRH 9 3 6 6 -0.540 From now on in the group stage, the current top 4 do not have games against each other ...Therefore, many of the games would be a shootout b/w many of those who want to remain in the top 4 and many of those who want to get into the top 4! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zen Posted May 7, 2023 Author Share Posted May 7, 2023 GT 11 8 3 16 0.951 CSK 11 6 4 13 0.409 LSG 11 5 5 11 0.294 RR 11 5 6 10 0.388 RCB 10 5 5 10 -0.209 MI 10 5 5 10 -0.454 PBKS 10 5 5 10 -0.472 KKR 10 4 6 8 -0.103 SRH 10 4 6 8 -0.472 DC 10 4 6 8 -0.529 For teams currently on 4-5 wins, every remaining group game is a must-win to keep qualification in their hands. However, it is likely that no team that is currently on 4-5 wins would win all its remaining games so an opportunity to get to the playoff at the 4th spot with 7 wins can open up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zen Posted May 8, 2023 Author Share Posted May 8, 2023 In the min 8 wins scenario (unless a scenario opens up where the 4th spot can go to a team with 14 points), the first virtual knockout game (where both teams are in a must-win situation) would be on May 11 b/w KKR and RR at Kol. In this scenario, at the moment, LSG (would not need to worry about NRR if it wins its last 3 games), RR, PK, KKR, SRH, & DC need to win all their remaining games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Majestic Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Barring GT and CSK, rest all are fighting for two spots. CSK may not have qualified fully but knowing their history , they probably will. Punjab have a few things to ponder now as they have lost back to back matches regularly. Today's match is key between RCB and MI as whoever wins jumps to no.3 with 12 points. It will be a batting paradise in Wankhede so runs will flow as well. The team that loses join Punjab, SRH and DC who although still in the reckoning to qualify but doesn't seem that any of these three will really make it to top four. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandz Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 It’s curtains for PK am afraid, not good enough to qualify this season again. DC also out, the two teams I like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zen Posted May 10, 2023 Author Share Posted May 10, 2023 LSG, MI, & SRH play 2 of their 3 games against each other. Therefore, this is an interesting group where these teams can knock each other out of the tournament or the surviving team has an opportunity to advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Majestic Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 GT and CSK are almost certain to qualify to playoffs. This leaves with two spots. Contenders - LSG, MI, KKR, RR, PBKS. MI has got the momentum on their side, their batting has become extremely dangerous with SKY really leading the pack as the best batsman in the world and other FTBs joining them. Their challenge is their match vs LSG as it is in Lucknow. But Lucknow's batting isn't good enough for Lucknow conditions so that game can go either way. I think given the ability to perform in crunch games, most likely it will be MI that will qualify and one of KKR/RR will qualify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zen Posted May 15, 2023 Author Share Posted May 15, 2023 https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/ipl-2023-scenarios-nine-games-left-nine-teams-still-in-contention-who-needs-to-do-what-1375800 ^ most of what is in the above has been discussed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zen Posted May 16, 2023 Author Share Posted May 16, 2023 TEAM M W L PT NRR GT 13 9 4 18 0.835 CSK 13 7 5 15 0.381 LSG 13 7 5 15 0.304 MI 13 7 6 14 -0.128 RCB 12 6 6 12 0.166 RR 13 6 7 12 0.140 KKR 13 6 7 12 -0.256 PBKS 12 6 6 12 -0.268 SRH 12 4 8 8 -0.575 DC 12 4 8 8 -0.686 If the following happens, we could have a number of teams on 14 points: PK and RCB lose one of their remaining two games RR beats PK SRH beats MI KKR beats LSG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zen Posted May 18, 2023 Author Share Posted May 18, 2023 (edited) TEAM M W L PT NRR GT 13 9 4 18 0.835 CSK 13 7 5 15 0.381 LSG 13 7 5 15 0.304 RCB 13 7 6 14 0.180 MI 13 7 6 14 -0.128 RR 13 6 7 12 0.140 KKR 13 6 7 12 -0.256 PBKS 13 6 7 12 -0.308 DC 13 5 8 10 -0.572 SRH 13 4 9 8 -0.558 With 1 game to go for each team, it is basically must win for CSK, LSG, RCB, MI, RR, KKR, & PK to remain in contention (even mathematically) because of the schedule: KKR, PK & RR need to win big to go past RCB's NRR. They also need to hope that MI & RCB do not win. CSK & LSG need to win their games too as MI & RCB play next. If they lose, they have to hope that one of MI & RCB loses its last game. MI needs to win. If CSK & LSG have won their games, it would need an NRR that is above RCB's. RCB needs to win its final game if MI wins its game. Otherwise, it is through unless one of KKR, RR, & PK is on 14 with a higher NRR. Edited May 18, 2023 by zen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Majestic Posted May 18, 2023 Share Posted May 18, 2023 1 hour ago, zen said: TEAM M W L PT NRR GT 13 9 4 18 0.835 CSK 13 7 5 15 0.381 LSG 13 7 5 15 0.304 RCB 13 7 6 14 0.180 MI 13 7 6 14 -0.128 RR 13 6 7 12 0.140 KKR 13 6 7 12 -0.256 PBKS 13 6 7 12 -0.308 DC 13 5 8 10 -0.572 SRH 13 4 9 8 -0.558 With 1 game to go for each team, it is basically must win for CSK, LSG, RCB, MI, RR, KKR, & PK to remain in contention (even mathematically) because of the schedule: KKR, PK & RR need to win big to go past RCB's NRR. They also need to hope that MI & RCB do not win. CSK & LSG need to win their games too as MI & RCB play next. If they lose, they have to hope that one of MI & RCB loses its last game. MI needs to win. If CSK & LSG have won their games, it would need an NRR that is above RCB's. RCB needs to win its final game if MI wins its game. Otherwise, it is through unless one of KKR, RR, & PK is on 14 with a higher NRR. RR can go past RCB NRR even with a decent win if RCB loses the last game vs mighty Pandya's Lions . KKR and PBKS maybe mathematically in contention but realistically knocked out. As it stands now, 1. CSK, LSG, RCB's faith in their hand. 2.MI's faith in MI and RCB's hand both. 3.RR's faith in each of RR, MI and RCB's hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zen Posted May 18, 2023 Author Share Posted May 18, 2023 To make the last day (May 21) of the group stage more engaging (and IPL is interesting), one of RR/PK (they play against each other tomorrow) and KKR would have to win with a margin that takes it past RCB’s NRR. This would mean that if MI loses, RCB (it plays the last group match) cannot go through irrespective of the result of its game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zen Posted May 18, 2023 Author Share Posted May 18, 2023 18 minutes ago, Majestic said: mighty Pandya's Lions Its Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts