Will American hegemony ever end ?

[Muloghonto]

Just now, ravishingravi said:

 

If this happens and that's a big if, then it's a big blow to US. No doubt. But on innovation, defence, pharma, AI etc they are head and shoulder above anyone else. If this remains, US will be driving the world. 

When the dollar collapses, so will the innovation. As i said, innovation doesn't chug along when your country is going through the great depression. 

 

[bharathh]

11 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

When the dollar collapses, so will the innovation. As i said, innovation doesn't chug along when your country is going through the great depression. 

 

Then the US will def go to war with someone. Nothing like war to spur innovation. I am sure they will do that if they are looking down the barrel on de-dollarization. Human rights gaya tel lene

 

They did the same to Libya when Ghaddafi threatened to break using the dollar. Wonder who they will go to war with?

[Muloghonto]

Just now, bharathh said:

Then the US will def go to war with someone. Nothing like war to spur innovation. I am sure they will do that if they are looking down the barrel on de-dollarization. Human rights gaya tel lene

 

They did the same to Libya when Ghaddafi threatened to break using the dollar. Wonder who they will go to war with?

That is why they WANT a war with China- you see, US is stuck in Thucydydes trap. It is the hegemon, but losing its edge. The challenger is getting stronger each passing day. This is why USA is the one going 'China is gonna attack ! china is gonna attack' and China is sitting around twiddling its thumbs and sabre rattling. Because China knows that the longer it waits, the stronger it gets, while its exactly the opposite for the US. 

Unfortunately for the US, US shot itself in the foot when they seized the quarter trillion dollars in Russian sovereign assets. Its basically saying '* u, if i dont like you, i will steal your wallet'. It bears mention, that ever since Bretton-Woods came into existence in the 1940s, this is the FIRST TIME EVER USA has seized sovereign wealth of another nation while not at war with them. They didnt do it for USSR's dollar assets, they didnt do it for China during Korean war, its just never happened before. And this is what's shooken up the entire world, because the entire world now sees USD as a millstone around their neck, which the US can use to sink them at any time. 

This is why in the last year and half, the dedollarisation drive has hit critical mass, with several nations talking about ditching the dollar for mutual trade ( this is the first step before de-dollarising the sovereign wealth funds & Forex reserves). There is no take-backsies in this and this de-dollarisation push is coming from aconcerted effort from all quarters - Russia & China are expected in this move, but on board are also India, UAE, Brazil, South Africa, Saudi Arabia etc and that is just one too many for NATO to deal with.

This is kind of a repetition of the fall of the Roman empire, where a major cause of their fall was ' everyone around you hates you and wants you to die' syndrome, something that USA is now finding itself in. 

 

Inorder to understand why this is the critical part of the puzzle, one needs to understand what the USD does for the US economy. In simple terms, countries need to manage their debt, because if they are hugely in debt ( like say Greece over the last 20 years or so or Argentina), no one wants to buy your currency, so your currency loses value ( as its in low demand). But no matter what the US does in terms of debt ( they've gone from 0-5T in national debt between 1790 to 2001 and 5T-35T in national debt in the 20 years since, along with carrying another 40T in household debt), USD always is in demand, due to it being global trade & reserve currency. So again, due to perpetual demand, USD holds value. 

Lose this aspect of the USD and the entire thread unravels for the US - it now has to answer for its nearly 80T in debt, will have to make tough choices in budget cuts, etc, while undergoing severe 'mega-Greece like' depression.

And there isnt much US can do about it, because US itself has undermined the confidence in the USD as global reserve currency due to its actions against Russia. 

Now obviously it will take time and it will be a basket of currencies that will replace the USD than another solo dominant currency, but it is something almost ALL nations are prioritising ( those who arent US vassals that is). 

 

[bharathh]

IMO, the west went crazy with Russophobia when they should have been working with them to take down China. That was their undoing. They should have tried to include Russia into NATO vs China. Not sure why they lose their minds when it comes to Russia. Russia is nowhere the power it was as the Soviet Union - and could never have reached any level to challenge the west. 

[Muloghonto]

1 minute ago, bharathh said:

IMO, the west went crazy with Russophobia when they should have been working with them to take down China. That was their undoing. They should have tried to include Russia into NATO vs China. Not sure why they lose their minds when it comes to Russia. Russia is nowhere the power it was as the Soviet Union - and could never have reached any level to challenge the west. 

Lol Russia wanted to be part of NATO, but USA will never allow it. For a simple reason: NATO is basically an excuse for US MIC to sell arms to its vassal nations- Russia will never cave to US MIL and it has the industrial capacity to compete with Uncle Sam itself in the realm of military - the only thing it lacks, is money- which it will have if it was part of NATO. 

US is also locked in the cold war syndrome and the general Russophobia that infested the entire anglosphere during the 1800s due to the 'great game' and Russian Empire emerging as a dominant power geopolitically.

 

What the west forgot, is that there was a reason why Nixon wooed China and capitalised on the Sino-Soviet split : Because in terms of resources - both natural & human - Russia+China represents an unbeatable combo against the US, because China is a bigger US in terms of manpower, while Russia is a bigger Canada in terms of resources. 

And thanks to woke retardation + letting eastern Euro immigrants like Nuland and Blinken to drive the agenda, USA has put back the 'Bigger Eurasian Canada plus bigger Eurasian USA' back together. 

 

As they say, those who don't learn from history, are bound to repeat its mistakes and yankees never learn.

 

[bharathh]

5 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

Lol Russia wanted to be part of NATO, but USA will never allow it. For a simple reason: NATO is basically an excuse for US MIC to sell arms to its vassal nations- Russia will never cave to US MIL and it has the industrial capacity to compete with Uncle Sam itself in the realm of military - the only thing it lacks, is money- which it will have if it was part of NATO. 

US is also locked in the cold war syndrome and the general Russophobia that infested the entire anglosphere during the 1800s due to the 'great game' and Russian Empire emerging as a dominant power geopolitically.

 

What the west forgot, is that there was a reason why Nixon wooed China and capitalised on the Sino-Soviet split : Because in terms of resources - both natural & human - Russia+China represents an unbeatable combo against the US, because China is a bigger US in terms of manpower, while Russia is a bigger Canada in terms of resources. 

And thanks to woke retardation + letting eastern Euro immigrants like Nuland and Blinken to drive the agenda, USA has put back the 'Bigger Eurasian Canada plus bigger Eurasian USA' back together. 

 

As they say, those who don't learn from history, are bound to repeat its mistakes and yankees never learn.

 

 

True .. but it just doesn't make any sense to do so for the sake of some billion $ in terms of weapons. Guess the "think-tanks" have a strong hold on the politicians of the US. It may be more China that invested in making sure the US doesn't get close to Russia IMO. Their mandarins seem to be better at these kind of long cons. 

[Muloghonto]

3 minutes ago, bharathh said:

 

True .. but it just doesn't make any sense to do so for the sake of some billion $ in terms of weapons. Guess the "think-tanks" have a strong hold on the politicians of the US. It may be more China that invested in making sure the US doesn't get close to Russia IMO. Their mandarins seem to be better at these kind of long cons. 

Its not just a few billions for weapons - though those help the bottomline. Its about exerting operational control and being the boss when push comes to serve. 

For eg, if your A/C has catapults, it means a US navy officer group ( 2-4 of them) are always posted on your warship, 'running the catapult'. This already happens in the British & French navies. What do you think those US naval officers are doing onboard the HMS Elizabeth or Charles deGaulle ? Not reporting back everything they see or hear to the Pentagon ? Can the Brits ever go 'no scroo you usa, we are going to war vs ghana and yuo cant stop us' ? 

As we say, 'jiski laathi, uski bhains'. Well, in the modern world, US wants you to use US's laathi but only the US can do 'marammath' on the laathi and actually know how to make the laathi work- you just get to push a button and pretend its your laathi. 

Thats the endgame of NATO MIL and why Russia will never join/be allowed to join.

 

[bharathh]

12 minutes ago, Muloghonto said:

Its not just a few billions for weapons - though those help the bottomline. Its about exerting operational control and being the boss when push comes to serve. 

For eg, if your A/C has catapults, it means a US navy officer group ( 2-4 of them) are always posted on your warship, 'running the catapult'. This already happens in the British & French navies. What do you think those US naval officers are doing onboard the HMS Elizabeth or Charles deGaulle ? Not reporting back everything they see or hear to the Pentagon ? Can the Brits ever go 'no scroo you usa, we are going to war vs ghana and yuo cant stop us' ? 

As we say, 'jiski laathi, uski bhains'. Well, in the modern world, US wants you to use US's laathi but only the US can do 'marammath' on the laathi and actually know how to make the laathi work- you just get to push a button and pretend its your laathi. 

Thats the endgame of NATO MIL and why Russia will never join/be allowed to join.

 

 

Sure.. but they wouldn't have wanted to force Russia into China's arms and give China the resources and access to Europe through land. They could have named Russia at least a Nato ally which would have got them into their fold even if they couldn't sell them weapons. 

[Muloghonto]

Just now, bharathh said:

 

Sure.. but they wouldn't have wanted to force Russia into China's arms and give China the resources and access to Europe through land. They could have named Russia at least a Nato ally which would have got them into their fold even if they couldn't sell them weapons. 

 

As i said, they dont learn. They thought they'd break Russia up via Yeltsin, when that didn't pan out, they thought they'd break Russia by making it a pariah state under Putin. When that didn't work, they thought they'd hit Russia with the most comprehensive sanctions & sovereign wealth theft in recorded history and that'd get Russia to cave. That doens't seem to be working out either.

USA's State Dept. is basically focussed on the 'old enemy' (Russia) and thought they could finish it off before it could become a resource warehouse for China. Thats not working out either. 

[rangeelaraja]

1) US will be in pole position atleast for another 50 years.  But the world is going to become increasingly multi-polar.

 

2) Reasons for US edge is vast technological superiority over rest of the world -  even today as we speak - 90 % of the cutting edge technologies are coming out of Silicon Valley - something as recent as generative AI - Chatgpt.

 

3) As long as US continues to attract the smartest immigrants in the world -  dominance will never cease in our lifetime.

 

4) One of the most important principals of power projection is - you've got to be the undisputed top dog in your neighbourhood - US has the friendly and submissive Mexico to the South, Canada to the North and vast oceans on either side. No other major world power has this overwhelming advantage.

 

5) US is blessed with extraordinary natural resources and vast fertile land.

 

6) The biggest variable in all of this is , how does US together with its allies in Asia and Europe - tighten the screws on China economically and cause its downfall.

 

 

7 ) There was a time when Japan threatened to over run the US economy in the late 80's to mid 90s - growing at a blistering pace -

so much so that Japanese electronic brands - SONY, Panasonic, Sharp, Casio, Toshiba, Hitachi...etc etc...totally overran the US consumer electronics market

and Toyotas and Hondas, Nissan Mitsubishi...almost put General Motors and Ford out of business. 

Then the Plaza accord happened....and Japanese economy went into a coma from which it has not recovered.

 

8) I suspect the Major powers will execute something similar against China ....

 

9) The biggest advantage that China has is ...American corporate greed,  given China is the world's largest consumer market and middle class...most CEOs bend over backwards to appease China ...nobody wants to upset them and lose such a lucrative market.  Their biggest disadvantage is unfavorable demographics and that their infrastructure and manufacture export based economic model ....is on a decline - China has already built first world infrastructure better than most European countries, even though their per capita income is 1/4  or lesser relative to european countries

 

10) But I think if it comes to a desperate situation as it is coming now with an increasingly rogue and belligerent China - Western companies will start pulling out of China in droves. 

 

The decisive factor now is going to be what China does or does not do against Taiwan.  If Xi ping pong decides to blockade or attack China - China's downfall will accelerate very rapidly

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 5, 2023 by rangeelaraja

[ravishingravi]

China is not getting stronger. It's getting considerably weaker. In fact China is big risk for global economy at this point. Incredible numbers on demography, debt, unemployment coming out of China. That ship has sailed. 

 

What China is doing now is posturing. By the end of this decade the real population would be down by 10% atleast. The current real estate capacity in China is enough to cover 10 times the population. Yup you heard it right. There is a massive fall coming. 

[rangeelaraja]

7 minutes ago, ravishingravi said:

China is not getting stronger. It's getting considerably weaker. In fact China is big risk for global economy at this point. Incredible numbers on demography, debt, unemployment coming out of China. That ship has sailed. 

 

What China is doing now is posturing. By the end of this decade the real population would be down by 10% atleast. The current real estate capacity in China is enough to cover 10 times the population. Yup you heard it right. There is a massive fall coming. 

 

 

China has a predictable operating model. 

 

When their economy is doing well or in a growth cycle -- they go quiet and focus, engage in industrial scale espionage of critical technologies and build multi billion industries.

 

When their economy is suffering or expected to do badly --- they start creating maritime and border nuisance to provoke a war.

 

What they are doing increasingly with regular Taiwan airspace and maritime intrusions is preparing for a blockade - which is an act of war.

 

it is very clear that they are planning a full blockade to make Taiwan surrender without getting into a major kinetic conflict. 

 

I think it is going to misfire big time.

 

Edited October 5, 2023 by rangeelaraja

[bharathh]

Interesting discussion for sure. 

 

IMO China is desperate to use the BRIC and it's OROP programs to move its building and infra building capacity abroad. More profitable as well. See what they did in Indonesia with the bullet train. Will def be something they will want to do with others. 

[bharathh]

Also am sure China has war with India also in the works to fan up nationalism within their country for the CCP. Indians are not liked much and is probably more risk free as the world powers will not get involved unlike with Taiwan. They will probably see how much support India gets before trying anything major with Taiwan. 

[ravishingravi]

1 hour ago, bharathh said:

Also am sure China has war with India also in the works to fan up nationalism within their country for the CCP. Indians are not liked much and is probably more risk free as the world powers will not get involved unlike with Taiwan. They will probably see how much support India gets before trying anything major with Taiwan. 

 

Challenge with China is that it is not a rational actor. Dont think anyone can state the facts to Xi. And he is the only decision maker. Unreal situation. So, he could absolutely do anything he think is right based on the info he has, which is highly filtered. Scary stuff.

[ravishingravi]

XI first took out his adverseries in cleansing exercise. Then took out his supporters who could be potential challengers. Now the third round of cleansing going on. To think that the white folks for a slighly fatter bottomline, gave this country so much leverage. Rules based order.

[rangeelaraja]

2 minutes ago, ravishingravi said:

 

Challenge with China is that it is not a rational actor. Dont think anyone can state the facts to Xi. And he is the only decision maker. Unreal situation. So, he could absolutely do anything he think is right based on the info he has, which is highly filtered. Scary stuff.

 

That is a challenge to China. It can shoot itself in the foot with or without provocation.

[bharathh]

16 minutes ago, ravishingravi said:

XI first took out his adverseries in cleansing exercise. Then took out his supporters who could be potential challengers. Now the third round of cleansing going on. To think that the white folks for a slighly fatter bottomline, gave this country so much leverage. Rules based order.

Tbh. Deng/Hu Jintao etc. were not as despotic as this guy - although Deng must have been to survive the Gang of Five and then keep himself as the numero uno for so long. He always gave benevolent uncle vibes. Probably had a nasty side noone knows. 

[ravishingravi]

32 minutes ago, rangeelaraja said:

 

That is a challenge to China. It can shoot itself in the foot with or without provocation.

 

If $20 Trillion economy with 1.5bn with manufacturing capacity 40% of the world, I think the world will sink wih them. They are risk for themselves as for others. 2008 would be blot next to the damage that will follow here.

Edited October 5, 2023 by ravishingravi

[rangeelaraja]

20 minutes ago, ravishingravi said:

 

If $20 Trillion economy with 1.5bn with manufacturing capacity 40% of the world, I think the world will sink wih them. They are risk for themselves as for others. 2008 would be blot next to the damage that will follow here.

 

 

Nobody believes Chinese GDP numbers - not even their own premier - see the below report of how their own last premier said that China's GDP is fake. 

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-wikileaks/chinas-gdp-is-man-made-unreliable-top-leader-idUSTRE6B527D20101206 .

 

They lie, they deceive, its in the communist DNA.

 

Many internal estimates from China put China's actual GDP at about $ 12 trillion maximum. 

 

The world is not going to sink with China - before China became the factory of the world -  the West manufactured heavily. 

 

China has created an unoccupied housing inventory to house more than China's current population. Thats 1.5 billion unoccupied homes.

 

As Economist Michael Pettis put it - in other countries GDP is an output of goods and services produced by a country. 

In China, GDP is an input....its like we need to achieve 10 % GDP growth...lets plug that into the GDP equation ...to achieve this ..we need to build 100 million homes and 5000 KM of high speed rail this year....ok lets build it. 

 

This is the kind of  debt fueled FAKE GROWTH that China has rolled out - highly exaggerating the quality of their GDP.

 

Manufacturing supply lines are moving back home and to Asian alternatives like India, Vietnam...etc.

 

Those with exposures to China market are gradually weaning themselves of China. 

 

 

 

Edited October 5, 2023 by rangeelaraja