A brief analysis: 7 batsmen vs 5 bowlers for WC 2011

[zen]

In big tournaments w/ most teams playing their full strength squads, teams that are able to deliver both with the bat and the ball are the ones that usually tend to do well. Packing a side with too many batsmen because the bowlers are not that great or vice versa can turn into a negative sum activity despite the move looking good on paper. The key is to create the right balance, which enables a team to "attack" both with the bat and the ball. With an eye on creating the right balance so that team Ind is able to maximize its potential and able "to attack with both the bat and the ball", let's examine its options: Option 1: 7 batsmen + 4 bowlers I really like this option. In ODIs, a batsman can have a bigger impact than a bowler because, theoretically, a batsman can bat for far more overs than what a bowler can bowl (10 overs). Of the 7 batsmen that Ind can play, one is a WK all-rounder so for this to tick one or more of the 6 batsmen should be able to fill in the 5th bowlers quota. When we play 7 batsmen, we assume that the 4 bowlers playing will do their job well. If one or two of the 4 bowlers that we play don't do a good job, it's difficult for the captain to control the 50 overs of bowling. When we are picking the 7th batsman at the cost of a bowler, the assumption is that all the batsmen are in top form. If the batsman isn't in great form w/ the bat, it could mean that Ind neither has 7 good batmen nor 5 good bowlers. To summarize, for option 1 to work well: 1. Most of the 7 batsmen playing should be in good form 2. All the 4 bowlers playing should be in good form 3. The player(s) playing as the part-time bowler should either be in good form with the bat and/or at least able to contribute with the ball. Option 2: 6 batsmen + 5 bowlers From an Indian PoV w/ fans being used to batsmen mostly winning the games, on paper, this option doesn't look that great compared to the other option. At first glance, the batting could look short, esp. if you don't have a bunch of bowlers who can contribute with the bat. So why should Ind even consider this option? To answer that let's look at this a little closely. By playing 5 bowlers, you are actually creating a bowling unit which has the responsibility to deliver in the 50 overs that Ind bowls. When you create a bowling unit, the bowlers tend to compliment each other well as for example you can have two specialist spinners bowling w/ each other. This option also gives the captain an additional specialist bowling option, in case one of the other bowlers is having an off-day. Theoretically, for the opposition, there are no overs of part-time bowling so it has look to pick on the one bowler who is not bowling well, and usually you find that out on the match day. As captains like Imran Khan will tell you that to turn a game or put pressure on the opposition there is nothing like picking up wkts. By having 60 additional balls from the 5th bowler, a team is giving itself the option of 60 additional balls of which some are more likely to be wicket taking compared to those 60 balls bowled by a part-timer, who is looking to bowl his spell quickly. Even if we assume that the ER of a specialist bowler vs a part timer is equal, the ability to bowl more wkt taking balls and thus potentially turn the game is intangible To summarize, for Option 2 to work well: 1. Most of the 6 batsmen playing should be in good form 2. Some of the 5 bowlers playing should be decent with bat 3. Most of the 5 bowlers playing should be in good form After looking at the two option, the question is which one would work better for Ind. Let's look at team Ind's squad to find that out. Batsmen in good/decent form: 1. Tendulkar 2. Sehwag 3. GG 4. Kohli 5. YP (played some amazing innings against NZ and SA) Q mark: 1. Dhoni (but plays as the WK) 2. Yuvi 3. Raina Bowlers: 1. Zak - good + can bat (swing) 2. Sree - good 3. Munaf - good 4. Nehra - ok on current form 5. Bhajji - good + can bat 6. Ashwin - good + can bat 7. Chawla - good (based on the Ind vs Aus warm up) + can bat In the end, the decision boils down to which one of Yuvi and Raina is in match-winning form. You don't want to play a batsman for his 20-25 odd runs. We are not looking to strengthen our batting on paper but on the field. This also depends upon whether Ind believes that one of them would be able to strike form during the tournament. It's not always possible for a player to be consistent throughout a long tournament like this one so it's imperative for the team management to keep an eye on who is peaking at the right time and who is going down. What's important is that Ind doesn't predetermine its strategy and rule out either option. Team management will have to keep an open mind on its strategy. They should try both to see which players are peaking at the right time and be able to deliver in the knock out games. Based on the above two options, below are the teams: Option 1: Ten, Shewag, GG, Kohli, YP, Dhoni, Yuvi/Raina, Bhajji, Zak, Munaf, Sree Option 2: Ten, Shewag, GG, Kohli, YP, Dhoni, 2 from: Bhajji, Ashwin and Chawla, Zak, Munaf, Sree

[Sooda]

I am not sure you can count YP as a specialist batsman. He is nowhere near accomplished enough yet. Your option two makes our batting a bit weak with a long tail The more pertinent question after today is what the compostion of the attack should be-Yuvraj will play given the 6th bowling option he provides... it is going to be Yusuf and four bowlers almost for sure. So, should the 4 bowlers be 3 pacemen and Bhajji... or -as Morris for one has been campaigning for -two pacers and 2 spinners (Chawla has thrown up an interesting problem with his performane today). That will be a spin heavy attack, and if one pacer is not having a good day (say Sree, and thats not improbable) then we have no one to take the new ball if say theres a bad first few overs from him. Sree, Munaf/Zak (depending on Zaks fitness), Chawla, Bhajj and Pathan, Yuvraj etc or... Sree, Zak, Munaf, Bhajji and Pathan Yuvraj etc ...

[zen]

I am not sure you can count YP as a specialist batsman. He is nowhere near accomplished enough yet. Your option two makes our batting a bit weak with a long tail

Good to know that you read that long post. I think how strong the batting is depends upon what kind of form the batsmen are in than on how the deep the line up bats on paper. In 2003, Pak played an out-of-form Inzamam in the 11 but that didn't make their batting any stronger except on paper. I don't know if by playing struggling batsmen, Ind is making same kind of mistake. Unless ofc they strike form as the tournament progresses but here the question would be for how long Ind should wait for them to strike form. As they say one good inning can turn things but the question is are they shaping up well to give themselves that opportunity to play that inning. To me, if the top 4, i.e. Tendulkar, Sehwag, Gambhir and Kohli deliver than we are in business. YP plays for his recent good performances and perceived better form than Yuvi and Raina currently. If the top 4 don't deliver than I don't think Yuvi and Raina (at the moment) are in the kind of form where they could be consistent enough to make a difference. Therefore, it boils down to playing 7 batsmen vs 5 bowlers. If Yuvi/Raina strikes good form with the bat and YP, along w/ the likes of Sehwag, is able to contribute with the ball then that would settle the issue. What the bowling composition should be in a 7+4 lineup is comparatively easy to decide as that would depend upon the pitch but then we are also playing a lot of part time spinners. On a flat deck, going in with two seamers though could be risky, esp if one of them breaks down in the game or has an off day and/or if the batting PP is taken at death.

[cowboysfan]

I would go with option one(so would the team think tank btw)but i would play only 2 pacers(exception would be a a real patta for a wicket).our 3rd seamer brings nothing to the table but Chawla is bowling well and he can bat a bit.Zak bhajji,chawla,sree/munna should be our bowlig attack.

[Sachin=GOD]

Will ultimately go with option 1. Looking at the spinners performance today, we may see 2 pacers+2 spinners+ any 3 out of Yusuf/Kohli/Yuvraj/Raina.

[asterix]

I think Raina should sit out few matches. He is not in very good form. UV doubles up as a decent left arm option and should play. Bit concerned about Gauti. Not have too much confidence on him. Sach, Viru, Gauti, Kohli, UV, Dhoni, Yusuf, Bhajji, Chawla, Zak, Santh Raina should only get a chance if Gauti fails miserably in first few matches.. And Kohli needs to try his bowling. He used to bowl decently during Youth WC. He could be a decent slow medium bowler like Collingwood or Styris. Should learn all the tricks of the trade, slow bouncers, reverse swing etc.

[Sachin=GOD]

^In the bowling I'd go for Munna over Sreesanth. As for Raina, I don't see him being dropped.

[asterix]

^In the bowling I'd go for Munna over Sreesanth. As for Raina' date=' I don't see him being dropped.[/quote'] Munna over Sreesanth? :nervous: Raina has right connections. He might be even doing the daily grocery shopping of Dhoni's household. So yes, can't see him getting dropped..

[Sid]

Munna over Sreesanth? :nervous: Raina has right connections. He might be even doing the daily grocery shopping of Dhoni's household. So yes, can't see him getting dropped..

:hysterical::hysterical:

[Sachin=GOD]

Munna over Sreesanth? :nervous: Raina has right connections. He might be even doing the daily grocery shopping of Dhoni's household. So yes, can't see him getting dropped..

I don't know why, but Sreesanth as a bowler never gives me confidence - a batsman hits him for 1 or 2 fours or if one or two of his appeals are turned down by the umpire suddenly that guy completely loses his line, length and rhythm - I would'nt want him in the World Cup team.

[zen]

Reading some of the posts makes me feel that some folks pick their 11 based on the player(s) they like, irrespective of whether that "really" helps India :(( I would rather have Ind win w/o any of my fav player(s) playing than see it struggle w/ my fav player(s) playing. I try to look at things from a neutral perspective whether it is team selection or Bradman vs Tendulkar or whatever

[asterix]

I don't know why' date=' but Sreesanth as a bowler never gives me confidence - a batsman hits him for 1 or 2 fours or if one or two of his appeals are turned down by the umpire suddenly that guy completely loses his line, length and rhythm - I would'nt want him in the World Cup team.[/quote'] Come what may, he never bowls half trackers like Munna & Gunmaster bowls every now and then..He always keeps the ball up. That gives me confidence in him. You think Munna and Gunmaster don't lose it by regularly giving atleast 3 4's in an over?

[Sid]

I seriously dont know how some fans can still claim that Sree should not play ahead of that joker Nehra or Munaf,the guy was the only one giving his 100% while others were trundling away

[flamy]

I didn't watch the 2nd half. Chawla was a fluke, a one-off or do u guys see potential?

[Sid]

I didn't watch the 2nd half. Chawla was a fluke' date=' a one-off or do u guys see potential?[/quote'] If he gets the pitch like he got today,he will take wickets and also if he bowls against similar line ups who have no idea ,how to play spin :cantstop:

[zen]

On Sree vs Munaf They are different type of bowlers, Sree would be good w/ the new ball, esp under lights when it could swing, while Munaf focuses on line and length, which makes him a good first change option and someone who could bowl at the death, esp when Ind is bowling first in the heat Since Nehra (who was good at providing breakthroughs and bowl decently at death) is struggling at the moment, I would have both of them in the line up for the different option they provide to the captain. Let's not forget that Zak isn't fully fit either so even if he is playing, I wouldn't bet on him to finish his full quota. We can have Zak leading the attack and bowling in a burst of 3-4 overs spell.

[asterix]

Guys..I need your views. IMO Kohli should try bowling his medium pacers. The team's senior bowlers and coach should help him to get few crucial tricks up his sleeves. He has a good temperament and would be a great 3rd medium pace option, if we are forced to play 2 spinners. He used to bowl during his U19WC campaign and bowls in IPL too.

[cowboysfan]

I didn't watch the 2nd half. Chawla was a fluke' date=' a one-off or do u guys see potential?[/quote'] need to see more,this pitch was really helpful.If we play on similar pitches then the world cup is in the bagB->

[flamy]

need to see more' date='this pitch was really helpful.If we play on similar pitches then the world cup is in the bagB->[/quote'] namma namma

[zen]

I don't know what 'namma namma" means but that seems to be a lucky slogan. May be because it was associated with CSK and it went on to not only win the IPL but also the CL :--D So would "namma namma Ind" work :icflove: