Sachin=GOD Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Yeah fair analysis. My guess is they will do well in UP more so than Bihar. Also' date= Karnataka and Delhi will go for BJP, or that is my sense. Orissa there will be alliance. Patnaik is an opportunist, if BJP gets good numbers. WB will spring a surprise. But yeah, come to think of it, 180 will not be so straight forward. However, I predict if we have a hung assembly and BJP emerge comfortably as single largest party, they will win big in re election. Agreed. Thats simply because thee is such a HUGE scope of improvement in UP currently.....although I will say - for the last few months the entire state machinery has only been busy in preparing for one Modi rally after another while the organizational work of setting up booth level committees has been delayed at least 8-10 times for a total of around 6 months tll date and its still nowhere near completion. Amit Shah, as I had predicted earlier, has been utterly ineffective as state incharge and has done nothing to show any of his so called organizational skills till now. But still, increase in seats in UP wil be more than in Bihar. In K'taka they are making a huge mistake by taking Yeddy back - he might win a few seats in K'taka but the overall impact of taking a corrupt guy back while accusing Cong of corruption will be really bad and I expect Cong to take full advantage of this to target BJP on corruption, especially since they don't seem to have anyone else to target in the BJP for corruption. yes....but a post poll alliance, not pre poll - this would mean BJP would still loose out on winning anyhting there in the elections itself. you really can't expect BJP to win more than 1-2 (at the most) in WB. Unless the BJP gets less than 150 seats, I do not expect re-elections. If they win more than 180 then obviously Modi will be PM; if they win in the 150s then there is a very high chance of a consensus candidate form the BJP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 New PR ninjas hired to bolster Rahul Gandhi's image From next month, you will see more of Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi in the print and digital media and on television. In the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections due in April-May, Dentsu India, the Japanese advertising and public relations company, is preparing a massive campaign around the concept of “empowering the common man”, which will focus on portraying Gandhi as a young, vibrant leader who will deliver on the aspirations of the common Indian. And Burson-Marsteller, a public relations firm, has been hired by the Congress to create a buzz around Gandhi on social media. Gandhi, who took the final decision to go ahead with Dentsu India (and JWT) to handle the Congress party’s Rs. 500-crore advertising contract for the elections, is taking a personal interest in the campaign’s design. “A team of select professionals is working on the project and Rahul Gandhi is closely involved with the creation of the short films and print ads based on him,” said a Dentsu executive on condition of anonymity as he is not authorised to speak to the media. “Apart from economic issues such as GDP growth, inflation and job creation, the campaign will speak about the menace of corruption and actively highlight Gandhi’s strong stand on the issue,” the source added. The agency has been told to be careful with the phrase “aam aadmi”, originally coined by the Congress, as it is now closely associated with the Aam Aadmi Party. Officially, Dentsu remained tight-lipped about the contract. “We just cannot comment on this subject,” said Rohit Ohri, executive chairman, Dentsu India. Burson-Marsteller, which has been hired by the Congress to revamp Gandhi’s image, is likely to handle Gandhi’s Twitter account and Facebook page. It will upload pictures of his rallies, update status messages to create interesting debates and tweet on daily developments to ensure greater visibility on social media. “We confirm that Burson-Marsteller has been engaged to provide counsel to senior leaders of the Congress Party as part of an exercise that also involves other communications and research companies,” said Prema Sagar, founder, Genesis Burson-Marsteller, India. When contacted, a senior Congress leader declined to comment. http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/rahulgandhitakingthelead/new-pr-ninjas-hired-to-bolster-rahul-gandhi-s-image/article1-1170098.aspx they really do have a Herculean task on their hands... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 ^ IndiaSpeaks @IndiaSpeaksPR Burson-Marsteller runs Union-Carbide & Rahul Gandhi's PR strategy. One of them is an unqualified disaster & the other is Union Carbide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hhunaeh Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 For whatever reason, this thread seems to have better discussions when compared to the all the spam in the aap thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Narendra Modi makes section of Shiv Sena seek split with BJP MUMBAI: Miffed with Narendra Modi for not having remembered the late Bal Thackeray in his speech in a recent rally in the city, a section in the Shiv Sena is learnt to be keen to sever ties with the BJP. Shiv Sena president Uddhav Thackeray was not invited for the December 23 rally of the Gujarat chief minister and this "added salt to Sena's wounds", a senior partyman said on Monday. The simmering ire in the Shiv Sena came to the fore at a meeting at the Sena Bhavan last Saturday. Several senior party functionaries urged Thackeray to walk out of the saffron alliance ahead of the 2014 election. Ramdas Kadam was cheered by his colleagues when he insisted that the time had come to "teach a lesson" to the BJP. It was learnt that Thackeray was quick to soothe the ruffled feathers of Kadam and others. Thackeray said it would be foolhardy to do away with the alliance on the eve of the general election. As the BJP poll ally in the state since the 1980s, the Shiv Sena is the most senior BJP partner in the NDA. Thackeray instead asked party leaders to organise a large rally in the city to coincide with the Balasaheb's birth anniversary on January 23, said sources. Referring to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Thackeray said the Shiv Sena had been a party of aam aadmi for over four decades and no political outfit could give it hiccups. He said his father, Bal Thackeray, had developed a bond with the aam aadmi. "The Sena story is intertwined with the troubles and tribulations of common citizens," he said. He was holding an informal conversation with mediapersons at Shivaji Park on the sidelines of a party function to commemorate the birth anniversary of his mother. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/Narendra-Modi-makes-section-of-Shiv-Sena-seek-split-with-BJP/india/Narendra-Modi-makes-section-of-Shiv-Sena-seek-split-with-BJP/articleshow/28488241.cms?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=TOIMumbaiNews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 To Mr. Manmohan Singh Soon-to-be-former Prime Minister of India Dear Sir, I am in receipt of information that you recently held a press conference in which you claimed that I would judge you differently from the way the media has treated you. I am touched and amused at the same time you would feel this way. Please treat this letter as a response to your claim. I normally take a lengthy period of time to reach conclusions on an individual’s place in my scheme of things. However I'm happy to say that your case seems pretty cut-and-dried to me. I’ve been watching you keenly for a while. And I’m good to go. Let's do this. You, Sir, will go down in my books as having presided over an era that has marked the biggest loot and pillage of India since the East India Company landed on its shores. You, Sir, will go down in my books as a man who always thought twice before saying nothing. You, Sir, can expect to receive no sympathy from me for having duped a billion people by shielding criminals with your armor of competence and honesty. And I'm afraid to say that you, Sir, were disastrous for the country. If you were to retrieve yourself from the well of self pity into which you have fallen and assess yourself (for once) honestly, I might perhaps be inclined to reconsider. Let me know. You know where to find me. I am the one who’s always watching. Best Regards. History. https://www.facebook.com/LaughingGasIndia/posts/640426692684095 Nice!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Around 42% of the World's population will be having some kind of National Elections this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asterix Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Thanks S=G for all the amusing and informative posts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Number Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Well I don't see the situation where congress would come back to power any time soon. Firstly the bitter anti incumbency will suffice. Secondly the AAP effect most likely will be in the form of a weaker NDA rather than a scope for UPA 3. Also in a sense BJP is busy digging its own grave. For 10 years instead of strengthening themselves as an alternative to the dynastic or one man rules type Congress it instead just waited for the people to get fed up by congress. Their role as an opposition has been appalling. The capability of any political party can be gauged by the performance they show while in opposition. Other than stalling the parliament and making noise the BJP has always showed its back to the people. If not for Modi BJP might as well become history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarke Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 in 1999 BJP won 182 seats. It won 7 in AP, 2 in Assam, 9 in orissa, 4 in TN, 2 in WB, 1 in Andaman & Nicobar, 2 in J&K - total of 27 seats out of which it will win hardly any this time. BJP also won 23 in Bihar and 29 in UP - total of 52 seats. I do not think they can win a total of 52 from these two states this time. They won 29 out of 40 seats in MP - now there are only 29 seats in MP so if BJP performs really well (which I expect them to) even then there will be a loss of 3-4 seats here. They won 20 in Gujarat - I don't expect a gain/loss of more than 1 here. How do you think they will get to more than 180 in such a situation? In the end UP and Bihar matter the most - in BJP does really well there then they have a good chance otherwise not. Let me ask you this: who is winning the seats across the states ? Is the Samajwadi party riding on its successful policies/secular politics in the largest state of India ? Is the Congress going to win 200+ under Rahul baba's leadership with record inflation and economy in the doldrums ? Is the third front really emerging as the single largest group ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedFever Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Congress propping AAP to counter Narendra Modi? Looking at from a conventional political prism, it made no sense for the Congress to back the Aam Aadmi Party form the new government in Delhi. AAP had stormed the Assembly elections on an anti-Congress, anti-corruption plank. Giant killer Kejriwal had thrashed Congress' chief minister Sheila Dikshit by a massive margin and the last thing Kejriwal would have expected in return was unconditional support from the same party he had vanquished at the hustings. Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal So why has the Congress suddenly turned so magnanimous? Is it genuine self-reflection which Rahul Gandhi spoke about or is a far more complex calculation at play? After being hammered by the BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, Congress managers seem to have read the writing on the wall. They realise that a big defeat in the 2014 general elections is almost certain. And their attempt now is to try and limit the victory margin of their principal adversary Narendra Modi. And for this the party seems to be propping up the Aam Aadmi Party in the hope that Kejriwal will chip away at BJP's vote share especially in urban areas, where AAP's anti-corruption plank has struck the deepest chord. Electoral data for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections from the battleground state of Maharashtra illustrates what the Congress is trying to achieve. In the build up to the elections, MNS chief Raj Thackeray was repeatedly threatening north Indians to respect Marathi manoos or leave Mumbai. Despite a massive clamour for his arrest, the Congress-NCP government dragged its feet on acting against Thackeray. MNS workers even went on a rampage across Mumbai and its adjoining areas forcing shops to down shutters and attacking taxis driven by north Indians. The Congress-NCP could have put a swift end to the mindless violence and locked up Thackeray sending a strong message to the MNS to behave. Instead, the government allowed Raj Thackeray to emerge as a larger than life champion of the Marathi manoos. The police did not arrest Thackeray till the time the courts forced the government's hands. By then the MNS strongman had used the oxygen of media publicity to significantly enhance his stature among Marathi voters. In the Lok Sabha elections that followed, the MNS managed to bag a major chunk of the Marathi votes, mostly in Sena strongholds, especially in urban areas around Mumbai. The BJP-Shiv Sena ended up losing on 10 out of the 11 seats on which Raj Thackeray's party put up candidates. The victory margin for the Congress-NCP candidates in the six seats of Mumbai, Thane, Nashik, Bhiwandi and Pune was less than the votes polled by MNS candidates, which means that hypothetically had the MNS not been in the fray, the BJP-Shiv Sena could have won 10 more seats than they eventually did. (See table 1) In these elections, Congress-NCP landed a tally of 25 out of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra while the BJP-Shiv Sena ended up with 20 seats. Had the MNS candidates not done so well, the BJP-Shiv Sena could have ended up with 30 seats and the Cong-NCP tally could have crashed to 15, completely altering the political equations of the state. (See table 2) This strategy of propping up a foe with the aim of cutting the votes of the principal adversary is a devious and dangerous game. One that the Congress has played successfully in the past. The question is can the Congress pull off the same coup riding on the back of the Aam Aadmi Party in the Lok Sabha elections and limit Narendra Modi's gains. The India Today Group asked some of the country's leading pesphologists for their view. C-Voter's Chief Editor Yashwant Deshmukh said, "AAP is a middle class phenomenon and the middle class is no longer only an urban phenomenon. There are 200 seats with a sizable middle class vote share. All these seats are now suddenly up for grabs. If AAP polls 5 per cent of the votes nationally, they will damage BJP on 50 odd seats. If they get 10 per cent of the national vote then they will damage BJP on 100 seats. And these seats will then become a toss up between the Congress and BJP. But if AAP crosses 15 per cent of the vote share the party will become a serious contender to grab a lot of these seats, like was the case in the Delhi elections.' While Professor Sanjay Kumar of CSDS said, "Arvind Kejriwal has emerged as an attractive alternative to Modi, especially in urban centres. AAP will certainly eat into the popularity of Modi but the impact will be more on votes in urban areas and not so much on the BJP's seat share. AAP can make BJP lose 5 to 7 seats in the Lok Sabha elections but not more than that." Economist and psephologist Surjit Bhalla, chairman of Oxus Investment said, "If AAP picks up vote share across the country in the same ratio as in Delhi they will damage the Congress much more than they damage the BJP. My calculation is that in the top 300 urban constituencies AAP is likely to pick up 7 seats which would have otherwise have most probably gone to the BJP." Narendra Modi and the BJP top brass have been quite concerned about the possible damage caused by AAP in urban pockets and senior leaders been discussing the Kejriwal factor at length in internal meetings. However, in public the party tries to downplay the threat posed by AAP. Psephologist and a member of BJP's national election management group GVL Narsimha Rao told the India Today group, "Congress tried this vote-cutting strategy quite successfully in the 2009 elections in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. But after that the strategy flopped miserably in Punjab with Manpreet Badal's PPP and in Gujarat with Keshubhai Patel, both of whom were propped up by the Congress. This time the message has gone out that AAP is firmly with the Congress and therefore AAP cannot hope to take advantage of the anti-Congress wave nationally. They are now a part of the establishment and therefore not much of a threat to the BJP outside Delhi. If they don't do a good job governing Delhi over the next few months and if people get fed up with them, then they will not be a threat to Modi in Delhi either." The Congress, however, dismisses the theory that the party is backing the Aam Aadmi Party in a bid to check mate Narendra Modi. Union Minister of State for Information and Broadcasting Manish Tewari said, "The support the Congress has lent to AAP was to ensure that the people of Delhi did not have to suffer another election. However, to extrapolate and conclude that this tactical decision was to keep out any one individual or party at the national level is an absolutely erroneous conclusion. The Congress has the strength to fight its own battles without having to lean on props." The Aam Aadmi Party too debunks the charge that they are part of a fixed match with the Congress. AAP ideologue and ace psephologist Yogendra Yadav told the India Today Group, "It's a classic, too clever by half theory spun by Congress leaders in their south Delhi drawing rooms. The trouble with this script is that no Congressman and to be fair not even the Aam Aadmi Party has an idea of where, how much and at who's expense will this new force rise. In the absence of any credible evidence all this is entertaining speculation and no more." India's electoral history shows that in most states where the Congress ceded ground to a regional player in the hope of short term gains, the party ended up hemorrhaging its long term prospects. Crippled by corruption charges the Congress has chosen to get into bed with the enemy in Delhi but the party could end up creating a frankenstein that will bite it later. http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/congress-propping-aam-aadmi-party-to-counter-narendra-modi/1/334952.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Let me ask you this: who is winning the seats across the states ? Is the Samajwadi party riding on its successful policies/secular politics in the largest state of India ? Is the Congress going to win 200+ under Rahul baba's leadership with record inflation and economy in the doldrums ? Is the third front really emerging as the single largest group ? SP ain't winning much in UP. I think BSP will be the biggest gainer there. Obviously Cong will not win over 200 this time... Third front also won't emerge as the single largest group. I'm not saying that BJP won't do well - with the kind of work UPA has done (or rather, not done), BJP will most certainly gain from last time but I still can't see them winning over 180. Its the regional parties who will win a lot of seats this time IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Wont be a surprise if AAP wins 10-20 seats from UP. Especially Amethi seat and ghaziabad seat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Add to that 10+ seats from delhi+haryana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bulbul Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 ^ Then Kejri will become PM :two_thumbs_up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 ^ Then Kejri will become PM :two_thumbs_up: that can happen as well. But think abt it, its always been a two way fight between two biggest national parties on delhi seats but aap will trump both rahul runs frm amethi, rajnath expected frm ghaziabad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sachin=GOD Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Suggested image makeover for Rahul Gandhi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarke Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 SP ain't winning much in UP. I think BSP will be the biggest gainer there. Obviously Cong will not win over 200 this time... Third front also won't emerge as the single largest group. I'm not saying that BJP won't do well - with the kind of work UPA has done (or rather, not done), BJP will most certainly gain from last time but I still can't see them winning over 180. Its the regional parties who will win a lot of seats this time IMO. All right, so BSP is the big gainer, likely if the junta has forgotten behenji's corruption and extravagance, but there could be some relative positives of her rule as well which I'm not aware of. But that's mostly one state; you're right in saying the grand old party isn't repeating its 2009 performance. Question is, where does it end up ? I have a feeling sensing from the assembly elections that it could be a repeat of 99 since the INC is as rudderless. If true, that leaves slightly less than a hundred seats in the open and the single biggest beneficiary in my book is the principle opposition party, Modi or otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Outsider Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 ^ Genuine question? What did Kalyan Singh and Gupta do for UP that people should vote for them over Behen Mayawati? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
urbestfriend Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 ^ Genuine question? What did Kalyan Singh and Gupta do for UP that people should vote for them over Behen Mayawati? If both haven't done much , is it not better to vote to BJP for a stable government? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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