2014 Lok Sabha Elections thread |Exit poll results

[G_B_]

who is standing from Pune for AAP? AAP would have been so good had they stayed in Delhi, fulfilled their promised of Sheila and Vadra, andnot hurried for LS but..

In pune congress sitting MP was Suresh Kalmadi (unelectable due to well you know :giggle:) so this time they have promoted an MLA from pune segment called Kadam to take over. Huge infighting from the Kalmadi faction. In 2009 he barely managed to scrape over the line against Shirole of the BJP. It was a tight and close contest and the BJP votes were sucked out by the MNS od raj t. Shirole is contesting again. MNS has put forward a weaker candidate due to a tactical understanding with BJP AAP candidate Subhash Ware is a guy who knows the city inside out. He has some grand ideas with a good economic vision for the city. He is popular. So it is a 3 way contest at the moment. BJP is slightly ahead but nobody should be surprised if Ware or even the Congress win. Its pretty close.

[G_B_]

Looking at maharashtra in general nearly all seats barring 7-8 are quite tight and can flip either way. Among the safe seats are Beed of Gopinath Munde, Baramati of Supriya Sule (Pawar's daughter) Shushilkumar Shinde Solapur and Raju Shetti of SSS (allied to the BJP-Sena combine) + Shard Pawar's old seat now that he has decided to goto Rajya Sabha. So thats nearly 40 seats in play. OF which some 13-15 are extremely close. Pune is one of them.

[Haarkarjeetgaye]

In pune congress sitting MP was Suresh Kalmadi (unelectable due to well you know :giggle:) so this time they have promoted an MLA from pune segment called Kadam to take over. Huge infighting from the Kalmadi faction. In 2009 he barely managed to scrape over the line against Shirole of the BJP. It was a tight and close contest and the BJP votes were sucked out by the MNS od raj t. Shirole is contesting again. MNS has put forward a weaker candidate due to a tactical understanding with BJP AAP candidate Subhash Ware is a guy who knows the city inside out. He has some grand ideas with a good economic vision for the city. He is popular. So it is a 3 way contest at the moment. BJP is slightly ahead but nobody should be surprised if Ware or even the Congress win. Its pretty close.

interesting. My gut was they would go with Arun Bhatia. Dude had been trying to win as an independent from Pune for a long time but always lost. I always thought MNS had an understanding with Congress, because they sucked up SS votes. vote cutting theory ..3 way contest has brought Congress back into contention

[randomGuy]

AAP candidate Subhash Ware is a guy who knows the city inside out. He has some grand ideas with a good economic vision for the city. He is popular.

There are such popular candidates across country. This is why I am hopeful.

[G_B_]

There are such popular candidates across country. This is why I am hopeful.

some are and some are not. AAP candidates in some places in mumbai are nut jobs. I somehow doubt that AAP vetted it candidates well. The only good AAP candidate you can say is that women from south mumbai lok sabha (forgot her name) who fought as an independent but is now under AAP. Had AAP actually selected people like Ware all over Maharashtra then they would be a force. Take Nagpur, they selected Anjali Damania who had no connection to the city of Nagpur and had no idea about local issues till a few weeks back. Both BJP and Congress for example campaigned on better governance for Viderabha via a separate state. Damania basically told her potential voters how poor they were. Nobody like being told they are poor 24/7. The difference in Pune is that Ware eats lives and breathes Pune everyday and actually knows what the aam aadmi in pune goes through better than the local parties. AAP in delhi i feel went for candidates who lived in the city and knew its ins and outs. In maharashtra i get a feeling they basically cobbled together anybody they could find. No planning at all.

[Haarkarjeetgaye]

There are such popular candidates across country. This is why I am hopeful.

all the best :two_thumbs_up:

[Sachin=GOD]

some are and some are not. AAP candidates in some places in mumbai are nut jobs. I somehow doubt that AAP vetted it candidates well. The only good AAP candidate you can say is that women from south mumbai lok sabha (forgot her name) who fought as an independent but is now under AAP. Had AAP actually selected people like Ware all over Maharashtra then they would be a force. Take Nagpur, they selected Anjali Damania who had no connection to the city of Nagpur and had no idea about local issues till a few weeks back. Both BJP and Congress for example campaigned on better governance for Viderabha via a separate state. Damania basically told her potential voters how poor they were. Nobody like being told they are poor 24/7. The difference in Pune is that Ware eats lives and breathes Pune everyday and actually knows what the aam aadmi in pune goes through.

Meera Sanyal. She got around 10,000 votes as an independent last time - I don't think she will win/get a lot of votes just because of the Jhaadu. As for Damania - I think she's there only to troll Gadkari.

[G_B_]

In general though i really never understood why the BJP is displacing local people and implanting them with outsiders. Why is jaitley contesting from Amirtsar where there was a sitting local MP in Sidhu? Why is Jaitley not contesting from Delhi. I can understand Modi and Varanasi for symbolism. Fair enough. But whats with Rajnath and Kanpur? Hema Malini in Mathura? Smiti Irani in Amethi? Even AAP your telling me that you cant find anybody who is AAM and living in Amethi? That is one thing the SS-BJP in maharashtra have done well. Local people are fighting in their lok sabha elections. To be fair is the same case for the NCP-Congress. Local MPs fighting local elections in places they are familiar with.

[G_B_]

Meera Sanyal. She got around 10,000 votes as an independent last time - I don't think she will win/get a lot of votes just because of the Jhaadu. As for Damania - I think she's there only to troll Gadkari.

I think AAP will add about 3000-4000 people to her account. She will get more of the intellectual vote in that constituency. So why even burn that money trolling Gadkari? Its not as if Gadkari is even odds on to win. Last i checked it was pretty even and extremely tight between him and the congress MP in Nagpur. Damania probably gave Gadkari the edge. In the long term its probably good for BJP maharashtra if Gadkari loses so that he does not become a thorn in the side of Gopinath Munde. I am sure there are many in BJP maharashtra who dont mind if Gadkari loses. This is exactly what i am talking about. AAP is burning through their funds they just wont have enough money to contest the assembly elections in maharashtra. Somebody like Ware for eg was 100% guaranteed to win in the assembly. I think AAP could easily have got 20-30 seats in the assembly. Their gas tank is empty now. Volunteers like my cousin are having have already burned through Rs10,000 from their own pockets. That sum is big for a college student. Thats not even including cost of transport etc. Make an impact through the assembly and build. AAP have just planned poorly.

[cowboysfan]

some are and some are not. AAP candidates in some places in mumbai are nut jobs. I somehow doubt that AAP vetted it candidates well. The only good AAP candidate you can say is that women from south mumbai lok sabha (forgot her name) who fought as an independent but is now under AAP. Had AAP actually selected people like Ware all over Maharashtra then they would be a force. Take Nagpur, they selected Anjali Damania who had no connection to the city of Nagpur and had no idea about local issues till a few weeks back. Both BJP and Congress for example campaigned on better governance for Viderabha via a separate state. Damania basically told her potential voters how poor they were. Nobody like being told they are poor 24/7. The difference in Pune is that Ware eats lives and breathes Pune everyday and actually knows what the aam aadmi in pune goes through better than the local parties. AAP in delhi i feel went for candidates who lived in the city and knew its ins and outs. In maharashtra i get a feeling they basically cobbled together anybody they could find. No planning at all.

yep.i said thisd immediately after they quit the govt,sometimes you need to secure your base and show you can run a successful clean govt .they miscalulated that badly but any aap MPs will keep the govt honest in the center.

[Sachin=GOD]

In general though i really never understood why the BJP is displacing local people and implanting them with outsiders. Why is jaitley contesting from Amirtsar where there was a sitting local MP in Sidhu? Why is Jaitley not contesting from Delhi. I can understand Modi and Varanasi for symbolism. Fair enough. But whats with Rajnath and Kanpur? Hema Malini in Mathura? Smiti Irani in Amethi? Even AAP your telling me that you cant find anybody who is AAM and living in Amethi? That is one thing the SS-BJP in maharashtra have done well. Local people are fighting in their lok sabha elections. To be fair is the same case for the NCP-Congress. Local MPs fighting local elections in places they are familiar with.

He has come to Lko not Kanpur. In Kanpur they have given ticket to MM Joshi because he had to leave Varanasi for Modi. Incidentally another senior UP Leader Kalraj Mishra was interested in Kanpur and was all set to get it but his name was cancelled at the last moment because of MM Joshi. Kalraj Mishra also had nothing to do with Kanpur - now he has been moved to Deoria - another constituency where he has no base. In Deoria former State BJP Prez Surya Pratap Shahi had been doing lot of work and campaigning/preparing for more than 1 year and suddenly at the last moment the ticket was given to Kalraj Mishra - Shahi supporters are still very, very angry and it may cost the BJP dearly. Even worse than bringing in outsiders is the case of people from other parties - in UP the BJP has given tickets to 23 people who used to belong to other parties. Local BJP leaders/workers in many parts are very angry and dejected at this.

[G_B_]

yep.i said thisd immediately after they quit the govt' date='sometimes you need to secure your base and show you can run a successful clean govt .they miscalulated that badly but any aap MPs will keep the govt honest in the center.[/quote'] most of the cadre know that. they made a big mistake. My cousin was telling me that AAP was over its head contesting in lok sabha. In lok sabha your talking about million plus voters potentially spread across vast regions. They realized this 3-4 weeks into their campaign. The money was burning up much quicker than anticipated. Its a whole new ball game and you need to traverse large distances within the constituency. See what happens when you run a city for eg, you know the ins and outs. You know where corruption can happen you come across problems which you can put in your manifesto to patch up. I mean forget about elections. I thought i knew everything till i entered my job. Experience of working taught me more than university. Its not just AAP mind you. BJP in karnataka consisted of many people who had never governed before in their lives a big entity like a state. They failed. The second BJP government formed in karnataka will learn but the mistakes. Rahul Gandhi today would be twice the man had he actually picked a congress ruled state and governed for a bit. This is why i am a big fan of cheif ministers becoming PM's. Its the experience of governance. Which is why BJP must goto Chuhan of MP after Modi and not somebody like rajnath singh who basically was a failure in his time as CM of UP

[G_B_]

He has come to Lko not Kanpur. In Kanpur they have given ticket to MM Joshi because he had to leave Varanasi for Modi. Incidentally another senior UP Leader Kalraj Mishra was interested in Kanpur and was all set to get it but his name was cancelled at the last moment because of MM Joshi. Kalraj Mishra also had nothing to do with Kanpur - now he has been moved to Deoria - another constituency where he has no base. In Deoria former State BJP Prez Surya Pratap Shahi had been doing lot of work and campaigning/preparing for more than 1 year and suddenly at the last moment the ticket was given to Kalraj Mishra - Shahi supporters are still very, very angry and it may cost the BJP dearly. Even worse than bringing in outsiders is the case of people from other parties - in UP the BJP has given tickets to 23 people who used to belong to other parties. Local BJP leaders/workers in many parts are very angry and dejected at this.

defections unfortunately are part and parcel of politics in India. Even the NCP has given sena defectors tickets. I dont blame them, they are strong candidates. Over the years for eg Narayan Rane has caused many defections from the sena for eg and it has helped the congress when they fielded them. However outsiders is a big no no. At max they need to be from the state. BJP IMO has made a big mistake there.

[Sachin=GOD]

I think AAP will add about 3000-4000 people to her account. She will get more of the intellectual vote in that constituency. So why even burn that money trolling Gadkari? Its not as if Gadkari is even odds on to win. Last i checked it was pretty even and extremely tight between him and the congress MP in Nagpur. Damania probably gave Gadkari the edge. In the long term its probably good for BJP maharashtra if Gadkari loses so that he does not become a thorn in the side of Gopinath Munde. I am sure there are many in BJP maharashtra who dont mind if Gadkari loses. This is exactly what i am talking about. AAP is burning through their funds they just wont have enough money to contest the assembly elections in maharashtra. Somebody like Ware for eg was 100% guaranteed to win in the assembly. I think AAP could easily have got 20-30 seats in the assembly. Their gas tank is empty now. Volunteers like my cousin are having have already burned through Rs10,000 from their own pockets. That sum is big for a college student. Thats not even including cost of transport etc. Make an impact through the assembly and build. AAP have just planned poorly.

He was always going to be a target because of the corruption issue. I think whether Gadkari wins or loses he will go into National Politics and Munde will most certainly be the CM candidate of NDA in next Assembly Elections so hopefully this will reduce Gakdari's iterference in Maharashtra politics. Yup. Their thinking, or rather Kejriwal's thinking, has been extremely short sighted in targeting the Lok Sabha elections rather than individual Assembly elections in states like Maharashtra, Haryana, Punjab etc and then going for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. He just went for the election that would bring him most amount of publicity without thinking how it would impact AAP's meager financial and human resources.

[Sachin=GOD]

defections unfortunately are part and parcel of politics in India. Even the NCP has given sena defectors tickets. I dont blame them, they are strong candidates. Over the years for eg Narayan Rane has caused many defections from the sena for eg and it has helped the congress when they fielded them. However outsiders is a big no no. At max they need to be from the state. BJP IMO has made a big mistake there.

In many seats in UP the local BJP candidates are equally good (if not better than) as compared to the defectors but the defectors are preferred and then to add insult to injury, the local leaders are ordered to work for them and ensure their victory. In a lot of cases the local leaders won't give a sh!t about whether the party wins or not if their own political future is endangered because of defectors hence they will work against the party from inside.

[bulbul]

Yup. Their thinking, or rather Kejriwal's thinking, has been extremely short sighted in targeting the Lok Sabha elections rather than individual Assembly elections in states like Maharashtra, Haryana, Punjab etc and then going for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. He just went for the election that would bring him most amount of publicity without thinking how it would impact AAP's meager financial and human resources.

They over estimated their own ability due to euphoria, their target was to collect 100 Cr, this again because they are able to collect 20 Cr in a short time for Delhi election.[There are even reports saying they stopped taking funds] But now they only got around 25 Cr even after these many days they are realizing the ground realities.

[G_B_]

does anybody expect Hema malini to win? If she does win then everybody has to admit a Modi wave happened atleast in UP.

[Sachin=GOD]

does anybody expect Hema malini to win? If she does win then everybody has to admit a Modi wave happened atleast in UP.

Very less chances of her winning but she has made the contest tough for Jayant Chowdhary (son of RLD Chief Ajit Singh).

[adi B]

I have to be honest. I dont hate AAP. Just think Kejriwal should have taken his time with Delhi and implemented many policies over a 3-4 year period and then moved on. IMO he should have sat out this lok sabha election in general and concentrate on state assembly elections. A few of my cousins are indeed a part of AAP in mumbai. They tell me that rather than lok sabha in maharashtra they should have targetted the upcoming elections later in the year for the state assembly. For a new party its much easier to flip an assembly seat than a lok sabha seat. They are already out of funds for the assembly elections.A place where they would have a major impact in pune and mumbai. That is just poor strategy. I personally think AAP will make an impact in Pune lok sabha seat and may even win it. But its not going to make an impact elsewhere in maharashtra. Had Kejrial governed and implemented many policies i think many people (including me) would have supported him.

True.I don't think even modi bhakts here hates AAP but when the AAPies collude to post anti modi-bjp articles,pics etc they get rattled (natural tendency)and give some fitting responses to the AAPies to make them realise that AAP is no saint party either neither is.kejri.. Anyway I hope they win a few seats especially shazia ilmi.AAP is an important party for the future in Indian politics

[ravishingravi]

Me want Scandinavia. Me voting for AAP.