G_B_ Posted April 15, 2015 Posted April 15, 2015 there is also a loss in Uttarakhand. Thats 4 straight bypoll losses to the Congress in that state after sweeping the lok sabha elections. The BJP need a change in strategy. There appears to be too much infighting in the ranks.
FischerTal Posted April 15, 2015 Posted April 15, 2015 and they have lost this one to the SP.... Thats like 11-12 bypoll losses in a row for the BJP in in Uttar Pradesh. Seriously bad signs for the party. Quite a big margin of victory as well. I am starting to think the SP will retain UP in 2017 the 73 number won't be replicated in 2019. realistically, can only hope for around 40-45.
G_B_ Posted April 15, 2015 Posted April 15, 2015 the bad part is that despite inducting so many BSP leaders the BSP vote (BSP stayed out of these elections) is not going to the BJP Change your strategy.
Mariyam Posted April 15, 2015 Posted April 15, 2015 BJP lost in the Bandra East bypoll http://ibnlive.in.com/news/mumbai-shiv-sena-wins-bandra-east-bypoll-narayan-rane-loses-with-a-huge-margin/539937-3-237.html Shiv Sena won with 52,711 votes. Congress (Rane) a distant second with 33,703 votes. And repulsive MIM a third with 15050 votes. The BJP couldn't even manage a podium finish.
G_B_ Posted April 15, 2015 Posted April 15, 2015 ^they were not contesting in maharashtra out of respect to dead MLA's Bala Sawant (sena) and RR Patil (ncp) Ie bjp did not contest the Bandra east seat. They were probably hoping for the a Rane win in order to weaken the sena and cause problems to Ashok Chavan within the congress. So they did not help the sena. But at the same time they did not hinder the sena either. In terms of their actions they were strictly neutral. A polar opposite to NCP local units who actively canvassing for Rane. So this contest was Sena v NCP+Congress v MIM. In terms of the pan maharashtra picture. This win comes as a boost for the Sena-BJP (Sena especially) when the Navi Mumbai and Aurangabad municipal polls are around the corner. The very fact that the MIM has managed to retain a big% of its votes from 2014 is an indication that they are going to cause major problems for the congress and the ncp in years to come.
Malcolm Merlyn Posted April 15, 2015 Posted April 15, 2015 and they have lost this one to the SP.... Thats like 11-12 bypoll losses in a row for the BJP in in Uttar Pradesh. Seriously bad signs for the party. Quite a big margin of victory as well. I am starting to think the SP will retain UP in 2017 In a balanced view this seat was an SP seat to begin with. Seems all the bypolls are going with the ruling party at the state level government. But still BJP needs to target seats like this if it is to form government. The BSP wont sit out the main elections.Lots of votes will be eaten by them.Also BJP isnt putting too much effort either.SP wont retain UP.That much is sure.
Malcolm Merlyn Posted April 15, 2015 Posted April 15, 2015 there is also a loss in Uttarakhand. Thats 4 straight bypoll losses to the Congress in that state after sweeping the lok sabha elections. The BJP need a change in strategy. There appears to be too much infighting in the ranks. This one is worrying.Uttarakhand was rip for taking.Congis had a 1 seat majority.Infighting has cost the BJP here.
Sachin=GOD Posted April 15, 2015 Posted April 15, 2015 The BSP wont sit out the main elections.Lots of votes will be eaten by them.Also BJP isnt putting too much effort either.SP wont retain UP.That much is sure. If BJP keeps bringing in outsiders, especially outsiders with criminal cases, and keeps ignoring the party's own leaders/workers, I don't think it would be in a position to win in 18 months time.
Malcolm Merlyn Posted April 15, 2015 Posted April 15, 2015 the 73 number won't be replicated in 2019. realistically' date=' can only hope for around 40-45.[/quote'] 73 is hard to replicate.But BJP can hope to get around 55-60.It can surely make up the rest from places like Bengal Orissa etc.
G_B_ Posted April 15, 2015 Posted April 15, 2015 lets wait for 2019 when it happens , its too far away. But i dont buy this BSP would have contested it would be different etc. Muslims aside BSP voters and SP voters are different segments of society. Either the BSP segment has stayed home or voted independent. But its not voted for the SP or the BJP.
RedFever Posted April 15, 2015 Posted April 15, 2015 BJP lost in the Bandra East bypoll http://ibnlive.in.com/news/mumbai-shiv-sena-wins-bandra-east-bypoll-narayan-rane-loses-with-a-huge-margin/539937-3-237.html Shiv Sena won with 52,711 votes. Congress (Rane) a distant second with 33,703 votes. And repulsive MIM a third with 15050 votes. The BJP couldn't even manage a podium finish. http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/report-bandra-bypoll-42-turnout-keeps-everyone-guessing-2076761 This constutuency has around 30 % muslim voters of the 2.65 lakhs total voters and that part had a high voter turnout, so from the results looks like most of muslim votes were divided between MIM and congress. This is a worrying sign for the congress and they need to realize that hindus have completely stopped voting for them.
Malcolm Merlyn Posted April 15, 2015 Posted April 15, 2015 lets wait for 2019 when it happens , its too far away. But i dont buy this BSP would have contested it would be different etc. Muslims aside BSP voters and SP voters are different segments of society. Either the BSP segment has stayed home or voted independent. But its not voted for the SP or the BJP. Muslim plus lower caste voters.That will be eaten up by BSP.Plus the MIM will also be fighting elections in UP next time.AAP may also fight elections.Too many variables in a full fledged state election than a BY election.
G_B_ Posted April 15, 2015 Posted April 15, 2015 I somehow doubt SC were voting for the SP in these bypolls. If anything looking at the turnout they stayed at home rather than voting for the BJP.
The Outsider Posted April 17, 2015 Posted April 17, 2015 BJP lost in the Bandra East bypoll http://ibnlive.in.com/news/mumbai-shiv-sena-wins-bandra-east-bypoll-narayan-rane-loses-with-a-huge-margin/539937-3-237.html Shiv Sena won with 52,711 votes. Congress (Rane) a distant second with 33,703 votes. And repulsive MIM a third with 15050 votes. The BJP couldn't even manage a podium finish. Haha! Mariyam's bait always manages to catch some fish.
G_B_ Posted April 18, 2015 Posted April 18, 2015 Does not look good for the BJP in Kolkata Trinamool was expected to win but looks like CPM are easily going to come second. 10-20 seats predicted for the BJP. A poor performance in a campaign which lacked execution and organisation mired in rebellion.
randomGuy Posted April 18, 2015 Posted April 18, 2015 Does not look good for the BJP in Kolkata Trinamool was expected to win but looks like CPM are easily going to come second. 10-20 seats predicted for the BJP. A poor performance in a campaign which lacked execution and organisation mired in rebellion. Bjp needs Ganguly and the Bengalis are chewtiyas to not have even a single strong right wing party like akali dal or shiv sena or the bjp in bangal.
G_B_ Posted April 18, 2015 Posted April 18, 2015 cant blame the public if you run a dud campaign. I initially thought that this was a good campaign when they decided to name candidates early. Been downhill since. Typical of the BJP rebellion, too much rebellion. You really have to wonder where the BJP would be if it was not for Modi. This entire municipal phase in WB was about comfortably placing the BJP as the main opposition party in WB in the run up to the assembly elections in 2016. Instead looks like CPM will still be the leader of opposition and Trinamool will probably sweep the entire state. Another state like Uttarakhand (which was also ripe for the taking) passes through BJP hands. I just hope they dont manage to mess up Assam. In April 2016 elections forget about Tamil Nadu and Kerela. Concentrate on Assam and WB. You have a good chance of winning Assam and a good chance of making real gains in WB.
randomGuy Posted April 18, 2015 Posted April 18, 2015 cant blame the public if you run a dud campaign. I initially thought that this was a good campaign when they decided to name candidates early. Been downhill since. Typical of the BJP rebellion, too much rebellion. You really have to wonder where the BJP would be if it was not for Modi. This entire municipal phase in WB was about comfortably placing the BJP as the main opposition party in WB in the run up to the assembly elections in 2016. Instead looks like CPM will still be the leader of opposition and Trinamool will probably sweep the entire state. Another state like Uttarakhand (which was also ripe for the taking) passes through BJP hands. I just hope they dont manage to mess up Assam. In April 2016 elections forget about Tamil Nadu and Kerela. Concentrate on Assam and WB. You have a good chance of winning Assam and a good chance of making real gains in WB. 1st and 2nd, both parties are left-wing. I think that's something to do with the people of bengal.
G_B_ Posted April 18, 2015 Posted April 18, 2015 i will admit it is a bit odd. Not only West Bengal but even Kerala etc. You need a centre left and a centre right party in the state. You have to keep in mind though, that before the rise of the Shiv sena (in maharashtra) and the BJP (in mostly northern and western india) in the 1980s entire india was like that. There was a time when the congress was a right wing party (or to the right) of most political parties. Guess these states are getting there eventually.
Malcolm Merlyn Posted April 18, 2015 Posted April 18, 2015 Does not look good for the BJP in Kolkata Trinamool was expected to win but looks like CPM are easily going to come second. 10-20 seats predicted for the BJP. A poor performance in a campaign which lacked execution and organisation mired in rebellion. Bengal doesnt vote on basis of religion or caste.It votes on basis of the party which has the best root level organisation. Left for 35 years played the politics of giving everything to its cadres and harassing and terrorising the opposition supporters.Terrorise the candidates,dont let polling agents of opposition come to the booths,fake polling agents of opposition,stop opposition voters from voting. They used the state machinery againist the opposition as the presiding officers were govt. servants who belonged to the left unions plus you had the state police doing their bidding. Then they gave complete power to their local cadres,from building a house to even setting up a small shop or buying or selling property you had to pay the local Left people who would disguise themselves as some local club.This money will then be used to nurture and look after the cadre. That has become the political trend. If BJP needs to win it will need to either break this trend and organisation in Bengal or force a vote divide between the majority and minority.Bengal doesnt have a rigid caste system so if BJP can anyhow polarise the Hindu voters in its support plus the huge non bengali population they can win.
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