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BJP pushed to third in Uttar Pradesh bypoll http://www.deccanchronicle.com/150504/nation-politics/article/bjp-pushed-third-uttar-pradesh-bypoll

Lucknow: The Samajwadi Party on Sunday won the Assembly by-elections in Pharendra in Maharajganj district with a margin of 9231 votes. The Samajwadi candidate Vinod Mani polled 64,878 votes while the Congress, which ranked second, polled 55,647 votes. The BJP, which had earlier held the seat, remained at the third position with 41,247 votes. The Pharenda seat had been declared vacant after the BJP MLA Bajrang Bahadur was disqualified for taking government contracts for a firm headed by him. Samajwadi Party spokesman Rajendra Chaudhary said that the party’s success was a clear indication that the people were approving of the development programmes initiated by the Akhilesh government. The most remarkable aspect of the result in Pharendra was the unexpected emergence of the Congress at the second position. “We are consolidating our position. The Congress is on a comeback trail,” said a leader.
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too many BSP folks in the BJP UP unit. That is not a happy shop. Long standing leaders are showing their discontent with central leadership by not supporting the candidate. In this particular seat the sitting candidate really tarnished the entire party.So some local factors are the issue Nows not the time to worry too much about UP. Concentrate realistically on Assam and Bihar. But post April 2016 you need to focus solely on UP. One fact to note is that these bypolls have a low turnout which does not favour the BJP in UP. On average BJP needs 60% in places like Maharashtra UP etc to swing the numbers in its favour. This bypoll had a 53% turnout. But still the BJP in UP needs a firm hand and needs its own leaders. Not imports and rejects of other parties. Its alarming now that the BJP have something like a 0-13/14 win loss ratio since lok sabha elections 2014 when they swept the state. Tells me that the local unit is crippled.

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and on the note of BSP rebels BSP's founder member Deena Nath Bhaskar joins BJP

Bhadohi: A month after resigning from BSP, its founder member and former minister, Deena Nath Bhaskar, on Monday said that he has joined Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and a formal announcement will be made here on May 14 "I had resigned from Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) on April 4 and after detailed deliberation with my supporters I have taken the membership of BJP," Bhaskar told a news agency here. "A formal announcement to this effect will be made in a public meeting at the Shyama Prasad Mukherjee Park here in the presence of state BJP president LK Bajpai and other senior leaders," Bhaskar said. When asked about contesting elections, he said if the party gives him ticket, he will contest the coming 2017 Assembly polls from Auraiya constituency. When asked about contesting elections, he said if the party gives him ticket, he will contest the coming 2017 Assembly polls from Auraiya constituency. Bhaskar was health minister in SP-BSP coalition led Uttar Pradesh government in 1993 and had later quit BSP to join Samajwadi Party in 1996. He returned to his parent party in 2009.
http://zeenews.india.com/news/uttar-pradesh/bsps-founder-member-deena-nath-bhaskar-joins-bjp_1589719.html
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I really do hope Shah knows what he is doing..... Obviously despite the Delhi loss I feel we should trust him. But it does not make for good reading when you are the Bahujan Janata Party in UP. Shah fails in Bihar and Assam then IMO change is needed before UP.

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Focussing too much on membership drive... Worlds biggest party. Modi joining Weibo etc. The focus is too much on PR, External affairs, grand standing etc.... Looks like proper kick in the collective backs coming up...

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I really do hope Shah knows what he is doing..... Obviously despite the Delhi loss I feel we should trust him. But it does not make for good reading when you are the Bahujan Janata Party in UP. Shah fails in Bihar and Assam then IMO change is needed before UP.
He is trying to corner the dalit votes of BSP.But they should be trying to make sure that BSP fights full fledgedly in the assembly elections,a 5 way fight between BJP/SP/Congress/BSP/MIM will benefit BJP the most.
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@sunny the way i see it in a 4 way fight of Congress BSP BJP and SP if the BJP manage to get about 32-35% of the popular vote they will be in government 9.9/10 Other factors include, turnout which needs to be more than 60% Usually in these bypolls the trader and upper castes do not vote in large numbers. Considering that the result does not matter in political terms for an election nearly 2 years away and a state government in full majority. Last time voter turnout was 62% in 2012. So a repeat of that or if it reaches 65% then it should be to BJP liking. This was the popular vote in 2012 which led to the SP forming a majority government.

Vote_share_in_Uttar_Pradesh_elections%2C_2012_partywise.png

So you need a formula to deliver about 35% to be on the safer side to form government. In 2014 lok sabha BJP got about 43% with the Apna Dal. So BJP+smaller parties need to get 35%

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If MIM enters the fray in UP elections which I expect them to, BJP will win easily no matter how much the local organization screws up. But MIM entering national foray is dangerous for India.

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If MIM enters the fray in UP elections which I expect them to' date=' BJP will win easily no matter how much the local organization screws up. But MIM entering national foray is dangerous for India.[/quote'] overrated in the short term. Max 5% of the popular vote and thats being generous
Posted
overrated in the short term. Max 5% of the popular vote and thats being generous
Not even 5% SP and Congis will get major share of the Muslim votes. Anything more than 3% means MIM have done well.
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I think SP will get a major chunk of the Muslim vote. Followed by BSP followed by the Congress. But i can see muslims rallying to the SP to keep the BJP out. I expect them to get 60-70% of the muslims vote. The congress just does not have the cadre network in UP. They will be sub 30/35.

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I know being self-critical is a good habit but come on yaar' date=' troll.in articles?[/quote'] BJP in UP is not doing well. Taking in too many outsiders, ignoring state leaders etc so some of the things in the article are accurate.
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I think SP will get a major chunk of the Muslim vote. Followed by BSP followed by the Congress. But i can see muslims rallying to the SP to keep the BJP out. I expect them to get 60-70% of the muslims vote. The congress just does not have the cadre network in UP. They will be sub 30/35.
After Muzzafarnagar? MIM will milk those riots like anything man, and we know how effective their propaganda machine+hate speech combo is !!
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After Muzzafarnagar? MIM will milk those riots like anything man' date=' and we know how effective their propaganda machine+hate speech combo is !![/quote'] they happened a lot time ago politically....especially for 2017. I dont think the SP are too strong in that belt anyways. The major trend in that region appears to be Jat Ajit Singh + SC BSP. That trend will be the BJP opponent rather than even the SP.
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Seems the bjp in tamil nadu wants to tie up with the Tamil Manilla Congress and DMDK they will dump the PMK.
DMDK will most likely tie up with DMK.First round of talks already over .
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