G_B_ Posted May 7, 2015 Posted May 7, 2015 Thanks again. So I get that niche players like Pappu Yadav and Manjhi will have a telling say on the outcome. One more question, will the factionalism hurt their prospects in the long run or will Bhagwat be able to bring them in line and prevent any self-sabotage? Unlike Delhi, which was a prestige issue, this election actually matters electorally. Hopefully the vote-share distribution isn't too lopsided. Its hard to say at the moment. Nobody has really revealed their cards. Even the main BJP players are keeping their cards close to their chest. SuMo is the front runner. Followed by Nandkishore Yadav. But knowing Modi if BJP wins he will pick a neutral belonging to no camp and may extract SuMo from state affairs and compensate him with a cabinet post. Delhi i dont think Bhagwat has much of an impact. In Bihar in rural areas he will ultimately make the call in districts which the BJP does not have major presence or infra. But i think he will leave the major calls to Shah. Elections in Kerala and Tamil Nadu the RSS will have the final call with Shah concentrating on WB and Assam. So I guess that is the litmus test of RSS acumen.
jalebi_bhai Posted May 7, 2015 Posted May 7, 2015 Elections in Kerala and Tamil Nadu the RSS will have the final call with Shah concentrating on WB and Assam. So I guess that is the litmus test of RSS acumen. Cool. 4 very important elections then. Are you aware of any strategies that the BJP might employ to counter booth capturing in WB and Kerala? Need some serious RW muscle in these states, especially after the shenanigans that took place in the recently concluded KMC elections.
HIC_NAA Posted May 7, 2015 Posted May 7, 2015 I think you are over estimating Pappu Yadav. He doesnt have power to take away Yadav votes.
G_B_ Posted May 8, 2015 Posted May 8, 2015 he and his wife Ranjeet Rajan managed to weather the Modi wave and hold onto (ranjeet) and regain (pappu) seats. He did defeat Sharad Yadav in the lok sabha. There are about 12 assembly under those lok sabha seats. Has the potential to take away about 20% of the total yadav votes. Especially as his support base is highly concentrated across 4-5 lok sabha seats. (or about 24-30 assembly seats) He goes it alone his outfit can garner about 5% of the total vote.
G_B_ Posted May 8, 2015 Posted May 8, 2015 Cool. 4 very important elections then. Are you aware of any strategies that the BJP might employ to counter booth capturing in WB and Kerala? Need some serious RW muscle in these states, especially after the shenanigans that took place in the recently concluded KMC elections. I think the army should take control to make it a more equitable election. But i doubt the BJP will employ those strategies. They are a national party and cannot afford to be seen to do this. For starters the Trinamool will now once again concentrate on violence against the commies. They concentrated a bit extra on the bjp due to a supposed rising threat. You can see that Mamata has decided to support the GST etc etc cause she does not see the BJP as a threat anymore. As for Kerela i think realistically the BJP top brass want CPM to win in order to topple the congress. While the RSS wants the BJP to get 10-12% of the popular vote. So there are split goals there... I do think Amit Shah wants the RSS to fail in Kerala. They manage to do well and win 2-3 seats and have the 10-12% they will start believing they should be given a much more prominent role in BJP planning.
velu Posted May 8, 2015 Posted May 8, 2015 @GB BJP might ger wiped if they contest alone , but i guess it cant form alliance with DMK. karuna is still obsessed with his secular votes. Best it can do is form alliances with PMK and MDMK. both parties might favor bjp over both dmk and admk. All are overestimating captain. He lost his mojo and he troubled bjp a lot during seat sharing. And there were lots of infighting, usually captain and pmk wont get along well. If i am not wrong bjp got more votes than dmdk by contesting in half the seats. Anyway bjp started ignoring captain already.
jalebi_bhai Posted May 8, 2015 Posted May 8, 2015 I think the army should take control to make it a more equitable election. But i doubt the BJP will employ those strategies. They are a national party and cannot afford to be seen to do this. For starters the Trinamool will now once again concentrate on violence against the commies. They concentrated a bit extra on the bjp due to a supposed rising threat. You can see that Mamata has decided to support the GST etc etc cause she does not see the BJP as a threat anymore. As for Kerela i think realistically the BJP top brass want CPM to win in order to topple the congress. While the RSS wants the BJP to get 10-12% of the popular vote. So there are split goals there... I do think Amit Shah wants the RSS to fail in Kerala. They manage to do well and win 2-3 seats and have the 10-12% they will start believing they should be given a much more prominent role in BJP planning. I've heard that if RSS influence increases even more, than Sanjay Joshi chapter might reopen despite his major differences with Modi. He is still popular among workers and is close to Rajnath. I can buy Modi-Shah not wanting RSS to shine in Kerala. But Joshi still has big backers in the Sangh. Maybe Congress might try to further light that flame.
BeautifulGame Posted May 8, 2015 Posted May 8, 2015 @GB BJP might ger wiped if they contest alone , but i guess it cant form alliance with DMK. karuna is still obsessed with his secular votes. Best it can do is form alliances with PMK and MDMK. both parties might favor bjp over both dmk and admk. All are overestimating captain. He lost his mojo and he troubled bjp a lot during seat sharing. And there were lots of infighting, usually captain and pmk wont get along well. If i am not wrong bjp got more votes than dmdk by contesting in half the seats. Anyway bjp started ignoring captain already. MDMk already broke alliance with BJP.Vaiko is a stupid ideologist to stick with any national party Also problem for BJP is they neither have political infrastructure or local leaders in TN.Last election they were completely depended on PMK and DMDK for local campaigning and Vijayakanth to lead almost every constituency . DMDK is still the 3rd biggest party in TN .It didn't reflect in vote shares last election becoz PMK did a lot of internal sabotage in places where DMDK contested . DMK is trying to bring congress communist DMDK Vaiko all under single alliance .If that happens best option for BJP is align with Amma as GB says . Contesting alone will be waste of time.Only question is whether Amma want to align with BJP.Muslims and Christians voted in larger numbers to ADMK last 2 elections .Doubt she wants to polarize them by aligning with BJP
G_B_ Posted May 8, 2015 Posted May 8, 2015 I've heard that if RSS influence increases even more, than Sanjay Joshi chapter might reopen despite his major differences with Modi. He is still popular among workers and is close to Rajnath. I can buy Modi-Shah not wanting RSS to shine in Kerala. But Joshi still has big backers in the Sangh. Maybe Congress might try to further light that flame. Sanjay Joshi is loved by the grass-root workers. He is a humble down to earth man who is heavily ideologically driven. From a lowly cadre to a chief minister he will meet everybody. The day Sanjay Joshi defects from the BJP is the day BJP is dead as a party or marks the decline. The rise of the BJP in Gujarat (along with Modi), he should be able to take a lot of credit. Selfless man. Its no wonder he has backers. He is respected and should not be seen as a pillar of power to Modi. Bhagwat and Joshi came up together in the RSS. Only thing was that Joshi took upon it himself to spread the BJP in Guj. While Bhagwat stayed in Nagpur and became the head. Who knows he would be RSS head right now had he stayed back. Certainly the more charismatic of the two. (bhagwat and him) One thing Sanjay Joshi does is follow orders. If the Bhagwat tells him step aside he will step aside. The congress are barking up the wrong tree if they thing they can use Sanjay Joshi to cause any issues. Joshi is also more of a shadowy figure. He operates behind the scenes. It is the antithesis of what AAP is.
G_B_ Posted May 8, 2015 Posted May 8, 2015 @velu BJP need to be seen by the masses in public. That can do that in potential alliance with somebody. As BE says DMDK is the third largest party. But i doubt there can be a PMK DMDK front. The best option for the BJP atm appears to be PMK/DMDK + BJP + Tamila manilla congress. But even that may not be possible. I agree with BE atm Amma does not need to ally with anybody. A BJP tie up with the DMK does not make sense at all. Why would you want to piss off Amma who holds 37 + 12 MPs? She can aid is passing major legislation. Secondly DMK wont want to jeopardise their partners like IUML. Its not a good fit in terms of ideology. The BJP needs to reach a situation whereby they can save face in TN. I am afraid the BJP have much lower hanging fruit in the form of Assam in 2016. Tn will have to wait. Considering the national picture the BJP will hope the ADMK win and win big. As long as the congress is shut out in TN, they will know that they can tie up with the ADMK if they are short on seats.
G_B_ Posted May 8, 2015 Posted May 8, 2015 and to certain extent TN WB and Orissa Andhra Pradesh *united for the BJP it is somewhat also about keeping the door shut on the congress. In 2009 congress in alliance with the trinamool picked up 6 in WB (picked up 4 in 2015) and 8 in TN in 2009 (0 in 2014) and 6 in Orissa and 33 in Andhra Pradesh in 2009 as opposed to 3 in 2014. Thats a difference of 45 seats. So long as the congress are not picking up seats its somewhat ok for the BJP. AIADMK BJD and the Andhra PRadesh regional parties are not a roadblock for the BJP to engage in alliance with. The BJP has other strongholds. They need to keep the congress to a sub 100 figure in 2019.
G_B_ Posted May 12, 2015 Posted May 12, 2015 Seems like the BJP AIADMK might be inching closer to a coalition for 2016. "BJP will go for an alliance with AIADMK to improve its vote share in TN. Jayalalithaa will accept it as she needs the Centre by her side get all the help just as DMK benefited when it was part of the UPA," said political commentator Gnani Sankaran. BJP backing the choice of AIADMK's V Thambidurai as the Lok Sabha deputy speaker had set the stage for floor coordination between the erstwhile allies. For passage of key bills, BJP is dependent on AIADMK, which with its 11 members can call the shots in the Rajya Sabha. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/AIADMK-gets-rid-of-corruption-tag-can-inch-closer-to-BJP/articleshow/47242003.cms I am hearing that the BJP is actively targeting BJD and AIADMK . Modi has put BJD MP's on key committees and is in regular touch with Patnaik, Modi does see capital in involving these two neutral parties to bolster his majority in the lok sabha and boost his numbers in the RS Comments from our TN based posters welcome. If BJP can get to contest 35-40 out of 235 seats its a deal worth taking. In return obviously they will have to give her a cabinet position, maybe two. Which may mean Modi having to expand his ministry as even allies like TDP SS Akalis will demand more. If this does happen the BJP need to be selective about what seats they get. No point getting dud seats like contesting directly against Stalin of Karuna
G_B_ Posted May 13, 2015 Posted May 13, 2015 interesting to note. BJP seriously considering launching its pan national news channel. RSS has reservations about the same. Prefers boosting influence within existing news outlets.
Sachin=GOD Posted May 13, 2015 Posted May 13, 2015 interesting to note. BJP seriously considering launching its pan national news channel. RSS has reservations about the same. Prefers boosting influence within existing news outlets. Cant they just rename India TV? :phehehe:
Khalpat Posted May 13, 2015 Posted May 13, 2015 Cant they just rename India TV? :phehehe: More apt would be Zee News. Rajat Sharma is really very shrude and money minded it seems. Looking at the popularity of Rahul Gandhi's speech, yesterday they had a whole half an hour program on how good his speech was. India TV shows only those news which gives them TRP. The day Modi will become unpopular they will dump him. ZEE NEWS is at some different level with its biasness.
Sachin=GOD Posted May 13, 2015 Posted May 13, 2015 More apt would be Zee News. Rajat Sharma is really very shrude and money minded it seems. Looking at the popularity of Rahul Gandhi's speech, yesterday they had a whole half an hour program on how good his speech was. India TV shows only those news which gives them TRP. The day Modi will become unpopular they will dump him. ZEE NEWS is at some different level with its biasness. No. In fact India TV was launched with the aim of being the 1st pro BJP channel - Pramod Mahajan helped a lot in its launch and then BJP lost in 2004 so it went downhill with those ghost stories etc but has again started covering BJP very aggressively in the last 2-3 years and now with Modi, who is close to Rajat Sharma, being in power, India TV almost always has accurate inside news about BJP. When AAP Ki Adalat completed 21 years there was a function in Delhi where every single BJP leader/industrialists/sports persons/Bollywood stars etc and PM, Prez attended. As for Zee - Subhash Chandra is the real businessman, not Rajat Sharma. Anyway, my earlier post was obviously sarcastic - turning an existing channel, however pro BJP it might be, into an official party channel would be foolish. In fact starting its own channel will itself be a stupid move. Better to improve relations with existing media than to start its own channel which will lack credibility since it will just be a 24 hour tv ad for BJP with totally pro BJP views on all subjects.
BeautifulGame Posted May 13, 2015 Posted May 13, 2015 No. In fact India TV was launched with the aim of being the 1st pro BJP channel - Pramod Mahajan helped a lot in its launch and then BJP lost in 2004 so it went downhill with those ghost stories etc but has again started covering BJP very aggressively in the last 2-3 years and now with Modi, who is close to Rajat Sharma, being in power, India TV almost always has accurate inside news about BJP. When AAP Ki Adalat completed 21 years there was a function in Delhi where every single BJP leader/industrialists/sports persons/Bollywood stars etc and PM, Prez attended. As for Zee - Subhash Chandra is the real businessman, not Rajat Sharma. Anyway, my earlier post was obviously sarcastic - turning an existing channel, however pro BJP it might be, into an official party channel would be foolish. In fact starting its own channel will itself be a stupid move. Better to improve relations with existing media than to start its own channel which will lack credibility since it will just be a 24 hour tv ad for BJP with totally pro BJP views on all subjects. Having its own news channel is a very powerful propaganda tool You just need to look at how DMK and ADMK use them .Particularly during elections .
Sachin=GOD Posted May 13, 2015 Posted May 13, 2015 Having its own news channel is a very powerful propaganda tool You just need to look at how DMK and ADMK use them .Particularly during elections . There is a big difference between state and national politics. This, if done, will create far more negative PR than the actual benefits. And as I said earlier, it will not have much credibility because it will basically seen for what it is - a 24/7 BJP ad on tv. If BJP improves its relations with the media and starts giving it a bit more access I can definitely see far better coverage for the Govt in the future. And it seems Modi has decided to engage more with the media - in the last few days he has given interviews to Hindustan Times and Dainik Jagran in Indian press and TIME magazine in international.
Sachin=GOD Posted May 13, 2015 Posted May 13, 2015 Read this - Modi's utilitarian change in media engagement http://wap.business-standard.com/article/opinion/a-k-bhattacharya-a-utilitarian-change-in-approach-115051201520_1.html
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