G_B_ Posted May 16, 2015 Posted May 16, 2015 @SG do you think its time for a coup in the BSP? or are the cadre very much with Mayawati?
Sachin=GOD Posted May 16, 2015 Posted May 16, 2015 @SG do you think its time for a coup in the BSP? or are the cadre very much with Mayawati? Nah. There are/were second rung leaders but nobody even remotely good enough to lead the party. Not happening at least till 2017 elections - a severe loss in that may have consequences for Mayawati but till then she is safe.
G_B_ Posted May 16, 2015 Posted May 16, 2015 Nah. There are/were second rung leaders but nobody even remotely good enough to lead the party. Not happening at least till 2017 elections - a severe loss in that may have consequences for Mayawati but till then she is safe. if you had to make a guess and i wont hold it against you (god knows my predictions have sucked) say elections happened 4 months from now, how many seats do you reckon for the SP BJP BSP and Congress.
Sachin=GOD Posted May 16, 2015 Posted May 16, 2015 if you had to make a guess and i wont hold it against you (god knows my predictions have sucked) say elections happened 4 months from now, how many seats do you reckon for the SP BJP BSP and Congress. SP - around 170 BJP - around 120 BSP - around 60-70 Cong -same as last time (in the 20s) It's still 18 months for elections - what BJP needs is for MIM to cut votes of SP/BSP and more importantly, to explain central govt's policies and their benefits to the people - they just haven't done that till now. They have made around 2 crore new members in UP (of which I am sure around 40% are fake or already existing workers instead of new members from amongst the public) and have now started a program of contacting these members - this is very important. If they can contact all these members over a period of 3-4 months and explain the govt's policies and how they will benefit the public then BJP will be in a pretty good position with about one year to go for polls. Another thing is that for a while now there have been rumors that state Prez L K Bajpai well be taken into Shah's national team and a new state Prez (and with him a new state team) will be made - this has created uncertainty and lobbying. Whatever decision has to be taken in this regard should be taken fast and a final team, which will remain constant till the state elections, should be decided.
G_B_ Posted May 16, 2015 Posted May 16, 2015 hmm not looking good based on your numbers its either bjp-bsp or congress sp government. This verdict might be good for the BSP to be honest. they might be in power.
Sachin=GOD Posted May 16, 2015 Posted May 16, 2015 hmm not looking good based on your numbers its either bjp-bsp or congress sp government. This verdict might be good for the BSP to be honest. they might be in power. My numbers are mainly based on by poll results and the fact that since sept last year ( when by poll results came out) SP has been doing better than it did earlier. Lot of new projects are being announced and it's constantly in touch with central govt for approval of older projects. Akhilesh seems more in control and apart from Azam Khan there are no controversial ministers making noise. The problem for SP remains law and order - it is still abysmal in UP and they are just not doing enough on that front. And of course there is Janata Parivar - what happens in Bihar may also have some effect in UP. For BJP, having 73 MPs will certainly have benefits but only if the govt's message gets across to the people through these MPs. Areas like electricity generation are ones where central govt can show improvements in the next 18 months and claim credit for it. Then there is LAB - they have to go to the villages to allay the fears of the people otherwise it will cost them heavily. BJP has enough time and resources to win in UP if they get their act together and tell the people the real achievements of the govt instead of whats shown in the media/told by opponents.
someone Posted May 16, 2015 Posted May 16, 2015 UP is very far to tell. First, it is Bihar and that will change many things. A loss for BJP in Bihar, and their chances of UP government will certainly be lost. And Bihar itself is anybody's guess. Recently, two very reputable opinion polls had two very different numbers. It's still Janata Parivar which has more questions to ponder upon than BJP.
someone Posted May 16, 2015 Posted May 16, 2015 By all accounts (insiders and outsiders), she is very tough to work with. Reputation for being very fickle. If you've followed her statements, you'll realize. Did take a bullet for the party, credit for that, but she is out of her depth in the HRD ministry. Congress will literally bribe people to vote for Pappu. A lot has been said about Smriti in one year. Some is true but a lot more has been lies. There is a smear campaign against her by our media sponsored by Congress. Her recent interview with Rajdeep shows it clearly, you can see the hatred filled eyes of Rajdeep for her. On HRD ministry, she is doing a lot more work than she has been credited.
Sachin=GOD Posted May 17, 2015 Posted May 17, 2015 Irani is the next PM of India (after NaMo 3 peat). Unless she changes her arrogant ways she won't even be in the cabinet in some time.
Sachin=GOD Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 BJP Sacrificing Bengal For Rajya Sabha http://swarajyamag.com/politics/bjp-sacrificing-bengal-for-rajya-sabha/ This certainly seems possible and as the article says, it's not good at all. Can even send signals to other regional parties who will promise support in exchange for BJP ignoring it's state units in those states.
diga Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 Irani is the next PM of India (after NaMo 3 peat). Devendra Fadnavis is tipped to be the lambi-race-ka-ghoda ...
Khalpat Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 Devendra Fadnavis is tipped to be the lambi-race-ka-ghoda ... I would bet on Manohar Parikar as the leader in future who can replace Modi.
diga Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 I would bet on Manohar Parikar as the leader in future who can replace Modi. Very much possible.. but he is already 59 years & D.Fadnavis is just 41 yrs
Khalpat Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 Very much possible.. but he is already 59 years & D.Fadnavis is just 41 yrs Oh ok. I would not mind if he replaces Modi in the mid of his next term at the age of 66-67. :winky:. I somehow feel that Modi should win the next election but not in favour of him completing full term as PM.
G_B_ Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 yeah i am not going to bet on Fadnavis. Maharashtra is still not a pure BJP state. They will need the sena in some form. Despite the modi wave they failed to cross the line by 20 odd seats. the resulting civic elections in April show that the BJP infra is very much wanting in many areas of Maharashtra outsider viderbha. They remain the largest party in maharashtra. That is not under dispute. Secondly Fadnavis has 0 political base as of now. The viderbha based MLA's are in the fold of nitin gadkari. Not saying he does not have a chance. He is in the good books of RSS cheif Bhagwat, but i would have money on Shivraj Chauhan. He has the backing of the Advani faction and is in the good books of the RSS as well.
G_B_ Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 BJP Sacrificing Bengal For Rajya Sabha http://swarajyamag.com/politics/bjp-sacrificing-bengal-for-rajya-sabha/ This certainly seems possible and as the article says, it's not good at all. Can even send signals to other regional parties who will promise support in exchange for BJP ignoring it's state units in those states. thats happening in Orissa though you cant blame Namo. That orissa unit of the bjp is useless. You give these guys a gun to fight the enemy and they will shoot themselves in the foot. In WB the BJP fight is with the Communists. So i dont agree with this article. It was never really about winning. It was about becoming leader of opposition.
mishra Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 ^ It took ages for Mamata di and Tata motor plant before she succeded roting Jyoti Basu's CPM. Bengal is tough nut
Sachin=GOD Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 Irani is the next PM of India (after NaMo 3 peat). Devendra Fadnavis is tipped to be the lambi-race-ka-ghoda ... I would bet on Manohar Parikar as the leader in future who can replace Modi. Not saying he does not have a chance. He is in the good books of RSS cheif Bhagwat, but i would have money on Shivraj Chauhan. He has the backing of the Advani faction and is in the good books of the RSS as well. I don't like Amit Shah at all but at the age of 50 he is National Prez and is the closest confidant of Modi. I would think he has as much, if not better, chance as any of the above (except Irani - forget about PM, she first HAS to improve her attitude otherwise she wont stay long in politics even with Modi's backing).
G_B_ Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 ^ It took ages for Mamata di and Tata motor plant before she succeded roting Jyoti Basu's CPM. Bengal is tough nut the bjp vote share has dramatically increased. From about 2-3% to even 12-15% (from the municipal elections) and will probably be more in the assembly. not saying its easy but you need to number 2 to reap the rewards of anti incumbancy
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