The Outsider Posted June 7, 2015 Posted June 7, 2015 So if what you say is true, it might be best for the BJP to let Manjhi and Pappu contest together as the third front rather than them contesting alone.....7-9% of the vote share between them then it does tilt the battle towards the BJP alliance. I doubt the BJP will go with Pappu due to their plank of law and order which does not fit with pappu. Btw I dont have an indepth knowledge on Bihar politics. So bear with me on the same... I doubt Manjhi and Pappu Yadav can contest on an independent common plank. And obviously the vote share needs to translate into seats. Manjhi's spread across middle Bihar will never make an impact. Pappu Yadav's 6-7% concentrated in central and North-West Bihar has a huge impact. If played correctly, it can lead to a 20 seat swing. BJP will lose marginal votes by aligning with Pappu Yadav - their victory margin will be reduced but they will win more seats.
G_B_ Posted June 7, 2015 Posted June 7, 2015 I doubt Manjhi and Pappu Yadav can contest on an independent common plank. And obviously the vote share needs to translate into seats. Manjhi's spread across middle Bihar will never make an impact. Pappu Yadav's 6-7% concentrated in central and North-West Bihar has a huge impact. If played correctly, it can lead to a 20 seat swing. BJP will lose marginal votes by aligning with Pappu Yadav - their victory margin will be reduced but they will win more seats. I think the problem for the BJP is that have have to concede a good number of seats to Paswan and Kushwaha. Lets assume the BJP do join up with Pappu. How many do you expect them to give him which is fair? The ultimate aim of the BJP is to form government on its own numerical strength. By my reckoning they need to contest a minimum of 150 (even that is a bit on the optimistic side) for that to happen. Currently in the alliance I think it should be a 180 BJP 63 other 2 allies split. There is also an issue of BJP's upper caste voters not liking Pappu at all. I doubt its going to be marginal loss for the BJP there. They are going to bleed on that front. Not to mention Pappu's wife is a member of the congress. Clearly there are trust issues in there as well.
The Outsider Posted June 8, 2015 Posted June 8, 2015 I think the problem for the BJP is that have have to concede a good number of seats to Paswan and Kushwaha. Lets assume the BJP do join up with Pappu. How many do you expect them to give him which is fair? The ultimate aim of the BJP is to form government on its own numerical strength. By my reckoning they need to contest a minimum of 150 (even that is a bit on the optimistic side) for that to happen. Currently in the alliance I think it should be a 180 BJP 63 other 2 allies split. There is also an issue of BJP's upper caste voters not liking Pappu at all. I doubt its going to be marginal loss for the BJP there. They are going to bleed on that front. Not to mention Pappu's wife is a member of the congress. Clearly there are trust issues in there as well. Pappu Yadav would take 15-25 seats in a coalition depending on the quality of seats. Laloo's Yadav vote bank is very fragile at the moment. If he doesn't agree to a tie up with JD-U expect mass defections from RJD to JD-U and BJP. There might also be a split. When BJP withdrew support half of RJD MLAs were willing to break up. There is a growing sense in RJD that they have been out of power for too long. Pappu Yadav is playing the same card. If RJD and JD-U don't get together, he will throw his weight with either BJP or JD-U. Laloo has no doubt been a leader with strong grassroots support, but RJD has a lot of local henchmen with massive command in their 8-10 Vidhan Sabha constituencies. They can carry a lot of popular vote on their own, specially now that Laloo is no where the force he was 15-20 years back. None of them are willing to support his plan of propping up his family at the cost of a genuine chance to be in power. Whether they end up going with JD-U or BJP will depend a lot on the hawa two months prior to elections.
G_B_ Posted June 8, 2015 Posted June 8, 2015 Pappu Yadav would take 15-25 seats in a coalition depending on the quality of seats. Laloo's Yadav vote bank is very fragile at the moment. If he doesn't agree to a tie up with JD-U expect mass defections from RJD to JD-U and BJP. There might also be a split. When BJP withdrew support half of RJD MLAs were willing to break up. There is a growing sense in RJD that they have been out of power for too long. Pappu Yadav is playing the same card. If RJD and JD-U don't get together, he will throw his weight with either BJP or JD-U. Laloo has no doubt been a leader with strong grassroots support, but RJD has a lot of local henchmen with massive command in their 8-10 Vidhan Sabha constituencies. They can carry a lot of popular vote on their own, specially now that Laloo is no where the force he was 15-20 years back. None of them are willing to support his plan of propping up his family at the cost of a genuine chance to be in power. Whether they end up going with JD-U or BJP will depend a lot on the hawa two months prior to elections. I see on the Pappu part... and yes i agree with your view of Lalu and the RJD
G_B_ Posted June 9, 2015 Posted June 9, 2015 BJP decide not to contest the bypoll in which amma is standing wise move... would have only damaged the bjp
mishra Posted June 9, 2015 Posted June 9, 2015 I have a feeling that Amma is going to be saviour on various bills in Rajya Sabha
G_B_ Posted June 9, 2015 Posted June 9, 2015 she is against GST as TN is a producing state. I think she will be more open to the bills post 2016 if she manages to retain power. For now i think she does not want to let the DMK use that as a chance to attack her as they did with the land bill. She might have her people abstain rather than voting with the gov till April 2016 (unless elections are called earlier)
G_B_ Posted June 9, 2015 Posted June 9, 2015 BJP Eyes UT's Lone RS Seat as Kannan's Term Ends in Oct http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/tamil_nadu/BJP-Eyes-UTs-Lone-RS-Seat-as-Kannans-Term-Ends-in-Oct/2015/06/06/article2851816.ece Its a fair call IMO. The reason being the lone NR congress MP has been made part of some pretty big committees. Its only fair BJP ask for the Ranya Sabha seat
Sachin=GOD Posted June 9, 2015 Posted June 9, 2015 BJP should not go with either Manjhi or Pappu Yadav. Instead it should try and see if the both of them (Manjhi and Pappu) can contest together. Then, as Outy said, they can inflict the maximum damage to Janata Parivar. And as I've said again and again, there will be many casualties due to the merger of RJD/JDU - BJP should take maximum advantage of that by encouraging rebels to join Manjhi/Pappu. Right now it looks like BJP will go without an official CM candidate (though I guess they will make Sushil Modi the Campaign Chief) - I think this would be a bad strategy. In states like Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand etc there was no real leader but in Bihar Sushil Modi has been the leader for 10 years so they should make him the CM candidate and any leaders who try to sabotage the campaign should be dealt with severely.
G_B_ Posted June 15, 2015 Posted June 15, 2015 seems DMDK has given BJP an ultimatum. Declare Vijayakanth as CM nominee or he is joining the DMK alliance.... Tough call to make...I do believe the DMK need the DMDK on board in their pan anti AIADMK alliance . If the BJP declare him CM candidate and the BJP contests with DMDK the DMK is going to find it hard to overhaul the AIADMK But at the same time the BJP is limiting itself in the state...
asterix Posted June 15, 2015 Posted June 15, 2015 ^ why can't BJP just leave difficult states like TN and focus on states where it has some genuine opening like Assam etc.
Precambrian Posted June 15, 2015 Posted June 15, 2015 seems DMDK has given BJP an ultimatum. Declare Vijayakanth as CM nominee or he is joining the DMK alliance.... Tough call to make...I do believe the DMK need the DMDK on board in their pan anti AIADMK alliance . If the BJP declare him CM candidate and the BJP contests with DMDK the DMK is going to find it hard to overhaul the AIADMK But at the same time the BJP is limiting itself in the state... It will be good for BJP if it is able to offload this stupid chap.
G_B_ Posted June 15, 2015 Posted June 15, 2015 but you dont want to get swamped in the polls. The BJP on its own is probably not going to win many seats. It demoralises the cadre and your leaders. I am all for going it alone but maybe you need to some political actual gains in terms of seats. Atm the BJP in TN is bit of a rudderless ship. I dont rate the BJP Orissa unit highly but Shah has get given them the task of getting tribal votes from the congress in the state. Ie there is a plan and they are reconstituting their booth level committees. The aim is to overtake the congress in terms of vote share in 2019. Ie there is a goal and they are moving to achieve those goals. I think the Shah Modi combo have decided to put TN and Kerala on the back-burner. The more I am reading and getting feedback from BJP in TN and your talking of the vote share being about 5% +/- 1. Its stuck at that. Remains to be seen if AIADMK allies with the BJP. If the BJP do badly or fail to win in Bihar she will view the BJP as spent capital. If the BJP wins Bihar and can form any sort of government she might be tempted to offer BJP some seats. Again i use the word tempted cause i think she can very well go alone and win. As things stand the BJP IMO should offer to project the DMDK leader as CM candidate. Their battle is probably with the DMK than the AIADMK. If the DMK is out of power for a long time, who knows they might split into factions once Karunanidhi passes away. So a AIADMK win is not exactly bad news provided the DMK withers away as a political party. The BJP are in power now in multiple states like MP Guj etc for more than 15 years now. They have something to fall back on. Not sure these regional outfits can withstand a sustained period of one party rule.
G_B_ Posted June 15, 2015 Posted June 15, 2015 ^ why can't BJP just leave difficult states like TN and focus on states where it has some genuine opening like Assam etc. thats exactly what they will do. WB and Assam in 2016 April.
asterix Posted June 15, 2015 Posted June 15, 2015 thats exactly what they will do. WB and Assam in 2016 April. Assam yes, WB no... I think WB is as screwed up as TN... Would rather try to get Mamta's favor...
G_B_ Posted June 15, 2015 Posted June 15, 2015 Assam yes' date=' WB no... I think WB is as screwed up as TN... Would rather try to get Mamta's favor...[/quote'] their battle in WB is with the CPM....unlike TN where mega alliances might take place. The CPM wont ally with the Congress leaving the BJP a shot to become the main opposition party. Its the same in Orissa, the aim maybe is not to win in 2019, it is to become the main opposition party.
Texan Posted June 15, 2015 Posted June 15, 2015 seems DMDK has given BJP an ultimatum. Declare Vijayakanth as CM nominee or he is joining the DMK alliance.... Tough call to make...I do believe the DMK need the DMDK on board in their pan anti AIADMK alliance . If the BJP declare him CM candidate and the BJP contests with DMDK the DMK is going to find it hard to overhaul the AIADMK But at the same time the BJP is limiting itself in the state... Is Vijaykanth really politically so relevant? Didn't he only win decent number of seats when he was in alliance with Amma?
Shivaji bhonsle Posted June 16, 2015 Posted June 16, 2015 BJP needs to win Assam at all costs. not happening with 35% minority vote share.
BeautifulGame Posted June 16, 2015 Posted June 16, 2015 Is Vijaykanth really politically so relevant? Didn't he only win decent number of seats when he was in alliance with Amma? Won 29 seats last term in alliance with ADMK. Polled 10% votes in 2009 LS election independently. Probably has 5-7% vote share now .Definitely on the decline Problem for BJP is they don't have any known face to canvass . Even last LS election they mostly relied on Vijayakanth for campaigning
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