seedhi Posted August 25, 2014 Posted August 25, 2014 Jungle raj may come back in Bihar .. I think the middle class did not come out to vote in these polls unlike the Lok Sabha polls. The turnout was quite low. The fear of jungle raj (which took Bihar back decades) will probably bring people out in bigger numbers to vote against Lalu in the assembly polls. Timely wake up call for BJP in Bihar. People of Bihar have not forgotten the days when extortion was a cottage industry and doctors had castled themselves for fear of getting kidnapped.
seedhi Posted August 25, 2014 Posted August 25, 2014 When Nitish Kumar's term was doing some good, it was in partnership with BJP. As soon as Nitish broke away the govt machinery simply became ineffective. People may remember that Nitish was with Lalu Yadav till 1994, several years into the destructive rule of Lalu Yadav in which he was a full partner. During this time the Bihar economy averaged a growth of around 1% at a time when the rest of India was growing at around 6 to 7 %.
G_B_ Posted August 25, 2014 Posted August 25, 2014 I've heard they'll make shahnawaz hussain CM candidate to get the muslim votes and keep the current bjp votes he could not even retain the assembly seat under contention. I am all for putting the best man forward, but there needs to be some merit no? Sushil Modi is the best the BJP have. Go with him they should. Another thing as adi has mentioned is the BJP need a large turnout 60% or higher to dilute the minority votes.
Sachin=GOD Posted August 25, 2014 Posted August 25, 2014 he could not even retain the assembly seat under contention. I am all for putting the best man forward, but there needs to be some merit no? Sushil Modi is the best the BJP have. Go with him they should. Completely agree. Also, I think this "Shahnawaz Hussain for CM" thing is being done by his own people. There's no way they are going with anyone other than Sushil Modi - in fact, if they didn't want to make him the CM candidate then he would be a Central Minister now (like Dr. Harshvardhan).
G_B_ Posted August 25, 2014 Posted August 25, 2014 Completely agree. Also' date=' I think this "Shahnawaz Hussain for CM" thing is being done by his own people. There's no way they are going with anyone other than Sushil Modi - in fact, if they didn't want to make him the CM candidate then he would be a Central Minister now (like Dr. Harshvardhan).[/quote'] agree. The two Modis should give the BJP a better chance in the assemblies. We also need sangh deployment to ensure the total voting % crosses 60. BJP are on the back foot, but they are not out of the reckoning yet. Its potentially rectifiable.
seedhi Posted August 25, 2014 Posted August 25, 2014 agree. The two Modis should give the BJP a better chance in the assemblies. We also need sangh deployment to ensure the total voting % crosses 60. BJP are on the back foot, but they are not out of the reckoning yet. Its potentially rectifiable.That is the KEY. The assembly elections will definitely have a higher turnout, and the challenge is to make it go as high as possible.
adi B Posted August 25, 2014 Posted August 25, 2014 Jungle raj may come back in Bihar .. I think the middle class did not come out to vote in these polls unlike the Lok Sabha polls. The turnout was quite low. The fear of jungle raj (which took Bihar back decades) will probably bring people out in bigger numbers to vote against Lalu in the assembly polls. Timely wake up call for BJP in Bihar. People of Bihar have not forgotten the days when extortion was a cottage industry and doctors had castled themselves for fear of getting kidnapped. that is what bjp will make their primary agenda along develpment next year in the state elections. bjp will go hammers and tongs at lalu's jungleraj past and nitish's double standards
Marco Polo Posted August 25, 2014 Posted August 25, 2014 Encouraging results. People realizing truth of achche din rather too soon. This is the template which must be followed in other states. I hope some how Mayawati be convinced to come along with Mulayam and Congress. If they come together, they'll be able to defeat politics of "love jehad" You will realize the politics of " love jehad" is relevant when the jehad reaches at your door steps.
G_B_ Posted August 25, 2014 Posted August 25, 2014 Well we have 1 year remaining till the elections in 2015. If there is jungle raj, people will experience it under the Jd(u) for a year before they goto the polls. One good thing about the Bihar election is that it is the only election happening in 2015. So it will be the sole focus of Modi and Shah.
Marco Polo Posted August 25, 2014 Posted August 25, 2014 Its only a matter of time. By elections are never an indicator to judge people 's mood. 90% By elections are always in favor of the ruling party because of the money and it becomes a prestige issues for the ruling party to get the results in their favor. They will go to any extent to win the few seats. Its the same in Madhya Pradesh where bjp have done well despite being in power for so long. Don't go by by polls. Its never an indicator.
Number Posted August 25, 2014 Posted August 25, 2014 Not bad for BJP. Won 4 seats just with Sushil Modi. Very low turnout, youth and middle class voting quite less. Lost 2 seats with less than 1000 margins. Although By elections are never a good indicator. In 2009 LJP+Laaloo-Congress won 11 out of 18. So low turnouts always help Laloo's herd.
Number Posted August 25, 2014 Posted August 25, 2014 but u are supporting lalu' date='mulayams,mayas just to keep bjp out?thats a sad state[/quote'] haha..Laloo and Mayawati will be new anti corruption idols.
sachin34357 Posted August 25, 2014 Posted August 25, 2014 By-poll results: UK:3 Cong-3 BJP-0 Ktaka:3 Cong-2 BJP-1 Bihar:10 Cong-1 RJD-3 JDU-2 BJP-4 MP-3 Cong-1 BJP-2 PB-2 Cong-1 SAD-1 UPA-13 NDA-8
sachin34357 Posted August 25, 2014 Posted August 25, 2014 Sushil Kumar Modi We accept the verdict.LS we won,bye elections they won ,it is 1-1.We will review ,make amends & make all effort to win the final round. 10:03am - 25 Aug 14
G_B_ Posted August 25, 2014 Posted August 25, 2014 right noises coming out of the BJP camp This was a defeat. Low turnout or not. In the lok sabha the turnout was close to 58%. Need a repeat of that. The BJP potentially need to look at other partners in Bihar to boost their numbers. For example the Sena-BJP in Maharashtra have gone down the bigger alliance route and formed a coalition with three small regional players each capable of winning 5-6 assembly seats on their own. These three parties together have added about 6-7% for the NDA in every seat in the lok sabha Are there any other smaller parties remaining? I notice the BJP have lost 2 assembly seats by low margins.
surajmal Posted August 25, 2014 Posted August 25, 2014 Conclusion: Bihar will remain a casteist sh!tter, so screw the development politics and play dirty. (same applies to UP) Haryana and MH will come the BJP way since these states are higher up the social/development totem pole. UP/Bihar may or may not come in the next assembly polls but if BJP gets Harayana and MH then they have entire Western-NorthWestern India - i.e. most productive part of the country. They will have atleast 4 years of free rein to bring double digit growth to these parts. So no worries.
Texan Posted August 25, 2014 Author Posted August 25, 2014 People reading too much into By-election results. Low voter turnout usually works against BJP. Past by-election results have been completely inconsistent with general elections or state elections. Haters can have a field day today based on some minor battles won, some of the results of which are relevant for hardly a year.
Khalpat Posted August 26, 2014 Posted August 26, 2014 With the NDA only winning four seats and the grand coalition picking up six, the results, on the surface at least, suggest the Nitish-Lalu strategy has paid off. The BJP, too, is likely to take some comfort from the fact that it held on to four. But in analyzing what these results portend for Bihar and India, it is important to bear in mind four essential facts. First, the turnout for the by-elections, at around 44 per cent, is considerably less than what the related parliamentary constituencies registered a few months ago. While it is tempting to see the results as a vote of no-confidence in the Modi government and its policies, the low turnout and the local nature of the contests are reasons to be cautious. Second, since the cult-like personality of Narendra Modi did not loom large in the by-elections and voters would have acted on local compulsions, the results reflect a reversion to a more 'normal' performance by the BJP. In other words, four out of 10 seats is what the BJP can hope to win in Bihar without the added impetus of the 'Modi wave'. For the party's state leadership, this is surely not good news. Third, the fact that the actual results in the 10 seats did not reflect the arithmetical advantage that the 2014 elections predicted - the BJP won three seats (Narkatiaganj, Banka and Mohania) where it had polled less than what the RJD/INC/JDU alliance polled individually - tells us that RJD and JD(U) votes do not transfer from one ally to the other that easily. With the state going to the polls in 2015, this reluctance of party supporters to do what their leaders want them to is likely to trouble both Lalu and Nitish. Fourth, it is worth remembering what happened in 2009, when the NDA (which consisted of JD(U) and BJP at the time) was able to win only five out of the 18 Assembly seats which had by-elections, down from a tally of 12. But by the time the 2010 Assembly elections came around, the NDA comprehensively trounced the opposition. What this means is that by-elections, at least in Bihar, are not necessarily a good barometer for gauging underlying political trends across the state. As far as the big picture is concerned, it is worth asking how the by-election results will affect the BJP and its opponents nationally. A clearer sweep by the JDU/RJC/INC combine might have provided a greater incentive for other BJP opponents at loggerheads with each other - especially the Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh - to think about a grand alliance. Such an outcome now seems even less likely, especially given the legendary difficulty the BSP has encountered in the past in getting alliance partner votes. The greatest impact of the Bihar result is likely to be on the BJP as the party realizes that Modi and his message of 'development' do not have the same impact at the state level as they did in the Lok Sabha elections. The seats the party won were with margins much less than those with which it lost. It is possible that pressure will mount within the party and Sangh Parivar for the BJP to go back to the politics of polarization - something which is already evident in Uttar Pradesh. The fact that BJP won both Narkatiaganj and Banka, constituencies where the Congress and RJD, respectively, fielded Muslim candidates suggests a consolidation of Hindu voters, regardless of caste, has taken place in favour of the BJP http://www.ndtv.com/article/opinion/modi-opponents-in-bihar-should-hold-their-euphoria-581441?pfrom=home-topstories
Marco Polo Posted August 26, 2014 Posted August 26, 2014 People reading too much into By-election results. Low voter turnout usually works against BJP. Past by-election results have been completely inconsistent with general elections or state elections. Haters can have a field day today based on some minor battles won' date=' some of the results of which are relevant for hardly a year.[/quote'] Ruling party in the state wins the by elections 90% of the time. Its a prestige issue for the ruling party and they go to any extent to win the 3 ,4 seats.
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