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CPEC has ZERO economic viability, its a massive cost. Is the purpose something else?


narenpande1

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In this world order not even America can threaten China. Even after Trump, focus has been on Indians and IT jobs. Trump did not touch the manufacturing jobs. China keeps grabbing our land but yet Chinese firm has a stake in Indian payment provider Paytm. Saw above a chines firm sponsors the Indian cricket team.  China is set to rule the world. In that it may make some bitches, friends or whatever, but the one who does not tag along will miss out.

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On 1/21/2017 at 1:15 AM, Asim said:

OK, is there ANY indian who feel CPEC has ANY positive for Pak?

I feel CPEC is one giant opportunity for Pak.. If used correctly, in terms of managing and use it to benefit country and people, it could be a major boon to recover from disastrous time that your country is facing.

 

However, Sharif govt is leading it so you never know what's cooking and how it is managed. The perfect timing could have been Imran Khan winning 2013 election and CPEC happening. There are few major factors working against  CPEC benefiting pak but that would be for another day.

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6 hours ago, veer said:

I feel CPEC is one giant opportunity for Pak.. If used correctly, in terms of managing and use it to benefit country and people, it could be a major boon to recover from disastrous time that your country is facing.

 

However, Sharif govt is leading it so you never know what's cooking and how it is managed. The perfect timing could have been Imran Khan winning 2013 election and CPEC happening. There are few major factors working against  CPEC benefiting pak but that would be for another day.

I am not sure how one can even call this as a failure and calling it economically univiable. This is something every country in the world will want to have. 

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8 minutes ago, Haarkarjeetgaye said:

I am not sure how one can even call this as a failure and calling it economically univiable. This is something every country in the world will want to have. 

How? And why?

If it wasnt Chinese muscel, Do you think any country would have accepted it?

Do you understand how consumer based economies work in west and this might suit them. How do you apply the same as need for Asian African, American countries?

Or just because Modi led India is opposing so "It must be wrong".

 

Edited by mishra
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3 minutes ago, mishra said:

How? And why?

If it wasnt Chinese muscel, Do you think any country would have accepted it?

Do you understand how consumer based economies work in west and this might suit them. How do you apply the same as need for Asian African, American countries?

Or just because Modi led India is opposing so "It must be wrong".

 

whole idea of India going into afghanistan was to hurt cpec. It has been rejected before Modi also. But that does not mean it isn't great. Historically trade route benefits places enroute. I do understand. I work in this field. Would you want to know my educational BG too ? Let's discuss in person sometime but before that you explain why CPEC is a failure 

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14 minutes ago, Haarkarjeetgaye said:

whole idea of India going into afghanistan was to hurt cpec. It has been rejected before Modi also. But that does not mean it isn't great. Historically trade route benefits places enroute. I do understand. I work in this field. Would you want to know my educational BG too ? Let's discuss in person sometime but before that you explain why CPEC is a failure 

Because of exceptionally high rate of interest makes it a debt-trap for economies that are not manufacturing or resource-extraction based to generate trade surplus.

History has nothing to do with this- historically, nobody went to foreign counties, loaned them money to build roads and rail to transport your own goods and had sovereign garantee- meaning if you fail to pay back loans, we take over the infrastructure we built. 

 

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1 hour ago, Haarkarjeetgaye said:

whole idea of India going into afghanistan was to hurt cpec. It has been rejected before Modi also. But that does not mean it isn't great. Historically trade route benefits places enroute. I do understand. I work in this field. Would you want to know my educational BG too ? Let's discuss in person sometime but before that you explain why CPEC is a failure 

I do not say CPEC will fail.I think you did not read the objective doc there.  For once we assume that China will finally waiver the CPEC loan. But what will it ask in return. Read the blueprint exposed by dawn.

 

The industrial gap is so wide between the nations is so big and Pakistan can simply not sustain the competition. We all know who wins a production battle between handloom work vs textile industry.

 

No one in India is worried about how much Pakistan or Pakistanis will be effed up 20 years down the line. We are only worried that Pakistan will be so much efffed up, that India will have to deal with adversary right on its eastern border and in its own waters.

 

BTW India joining CPEC, You need to be a Nehuruvian who gave away UN seat to Chinks on grounds of Hindi Chini bhai bhai and then was forced to give up Tibet.

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Over what period are you guys calculating the cost? Look at it over a 50 year period.  Why are we today doing trade with China while they grab our land in arunachal and are helping our enemy and that too over a disputed land. The cost is always notional. The relationship is what matters.

 

is there no import or export we do with Pakistan. Any student exchange programs? If we do,  is that at the cost of our soldiers lives?

Edited by Haarkarjeetgaye
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3 minutes ago, mishra said:

^ There is something called economic war and there are arsenals to that too. They arent gun powder

Does the economic war have a time period to associate a cost? Try answering the question i have asked on our trade and exchange with China and Pakistan

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10 minutes ago, Haarkarjeetgaye said:

Does the economic war have a time period to associate a cost? Try answering the question i have asked on our trade and exchange with China and Pakistan

No, Economic war allways goes on. If you arent carefull enough, you end up being on mercy of your trading partner. Thats what happened with Russia. West came together, Blocked Russia, killed NAM. If we dont get a UN representation and 4 other nations go in bed with China, China will break India.

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1 minute ago, mishra said:

No, Economic war allways goes on. If you arent carefull enough, you end up being on mercy of your trading partner. Thats what happened with Russia. West came together, Blocked Russia, killed NAM. If we dont get a UN representation and 4 other nations go in bed with China, China will break India.

So if it always goes on, how can one put a cost to it. Cost is always over a limited time period. What you have mentioned is motivation enough for Pakistan to be in relationship  with China. The benefit is not always money in real terms, although IMO Pakistan will gain on that front too because of CPEC.

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10 minutes ago, Haarkarjeetgaye said:

So if it always goes on, how can one put a cost to it. Cost is always over a limited time period. What you have mentioned is motivation enough for Pakistan to be in relationship  with China. The benefit is not always money in real terms, although IMO Pakistan will gain on that front too because of CPEC.

Why do you think its Pakistani venture, Its Chines venture which has just made use of Pakistani feeling. And benefit to China is far too much while risk associated to us is India sovereignty. China did not go to UN to verify, Hey, if you can verify if Gilgit is in India or Pakistan. It simply awarded a disputed region to Pakistan and named it Pakistan. Tomorrow, If India doesnt opens a hub in Aruanchal Pradesh to trade with Asian nations, China will simply land its army there and occupy the area which links most countries. And offcourse India can have its nukes.

Edited by mishra
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1 minute ago, mishra said:

Why do you think its Pakistani venture, Its Chines venture which has just made use of Pakistani feeling. And benefit to China is far too much while risk associated to India sovereignty. China did not go to UN to verify, Hey, if you can verify if Gilgit is in India or Pakistan. It simply awarded a disputed region to Pakistan and named it Pakistan. Tomorrow, If India doesnt opens a hub in Aruanchal Pradesh to trade with Asian nations, China will simply land its army there and occupy the area which links most countries. And offcourse India can have its nukes.

It is not a Pakistani venture. It is a Chinese venture but Pakistan stands to gain from it and hence should fully support it. India does stand to lose, hence we are opposing it. Why are we thinking CPEC will be a faliure for Pakistan. That is not embracing the reality. 

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6 minutes ago, Haarkarjeetgaye said:

It is not a Pakistani venture. It is a Chinese venture but Pakistan stands to gain from it and hence should fully support it. India does stand to lose, hence we are opposing it. Why are we thinking CPEC will be a faliure for Pakistan. That is not embracing the reality. 

No Pakistan doesnt stand to gain. Gilgit is part of Pakistan on paper only. China has simply gained access to new market, new land. Only a Chewtiya will think that land leased to Chinese will come back Pakistani after the expiry of lease. Its simply Chinese now till a new world order is created. Which isnt happening anytime soon.

 

Only gain Pakistan has got is, It can still continue disturbance in Kashmir without risk of massive retaliation from India. As far as other economic gains are concerned, China is allready saying, It want the port as priority and access to it via land

 

 

Edited by mishra
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2 minutes ago, mishra said:

No Pakistan doesnt stand to gain. Gilgit is part of Pakistan on paper only. China has simply gained access to new market, new land. Only a Chewtiya will think that land leased to Chinese will come back Pakistani after the expiry of lease. Its simply Chinese now till a new world order is created. Which isnt happening anytime soon.

 

Only gain Pakistan has got is, It can still continue disturbance in Kashmir without risk of massive retaliation from India. As far as other economic gains are concerned, China is allready saying, It want the port as priority and access to it via land

 

 

It was a good discussion till you did the name calling in this post. Nevertheless my last post on this. In my opinion Pakistan stands to gain economically , strategically and even as per you stands to gain by continuation of the Kashmir issue. So there is some gain, which is why they are going for it. We will hope it is a faliure but to assume it will be a faliure, is foolhardy on our part. We can't handle arunachal, it may become even tough for us on gilgit. Any disagreements, we can agree to disagree. 

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