Haarkarjeetgaye Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 11 hours ago, velu said: watever , if you say people are really depressed because of demonitzation most certainly they might have voted against BJP in huge numbers considering BJP is responsible.. this is staright forward thing to grasp .. i find everything is back to normal except real estate ( people willing to sell might be in depression ) .. we are doing financing too , for 3/4 months we were not gettign the interest properly , but again they are back to normal or close to november levels .. Are we financing? Isn't the nominal credit rate less than inflation. This has not happened in the recent past. I am not a finance expert but this means businesses are not taking loans. How are they then poised to grow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Singh bling Posted May 20, 2017 Author Share Posted May 20, 2017 this recent election is a barometer for whether people are pro or against demonitization or not .. whatevr bjp did is a big move and i would consider that election results are in favor of them ( anywya u can bring punjab , goa etc ).. this is me view .. you are free to have your view and you claimed that people r really depressed ( compunded by demonitization ) , if that is true people would have strongly voted against BJP.. I said business environment is depressed not people . I have debated with real estate brokers some of them die hard Modi Bhakts who are earning half what they were earning previously but still their enthusiasm is so high that they will vote for Modi for next 10 years, Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Haarkarjeetgaye said: Are we financing? Isn't the nominal credit rate less than inflation. This has not happened in the recent past. I am not a finance expert but this means businesses are not taking loans. How are they then poised to grow? "While the consumer price inflation (CPI) eased to 2.99% in April from 3.89% in March, the WPI inflation fell sharply to 3.85% in April from 5.3%." Inflation is very very low, extremely low, at all time low. Surajmal makes very good point.... Universal basic income is the way forward, I have been saying this for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haarkarjeetgaye Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 35 minutes ago, randomGuy said: "While the consumer price inflation (CPI) eased to 2.99% in April from 3.89% in March, the WPI inflation fell sharply to 3.85% in April from 5.3%." Inflation is very very low, extremely low, at all time low. Surajmal makes very good point.... Universal basic income is the way forward, I have been saying this for years. That is not what I was saying. What you have put may be right but does not impact jobs. Business not taking loans does impact jobs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 20 minutes ago, Haarkarjeetgaye said: That is not what I was saying. What you have put may be right but does not impact jobs. Business not taking loans does impact jobs You are talking about credit/loan growth rates. Divide it into retail loans and corporate loans. Retail loans are growing, corporate loans are not. When you have great efficiencies due to modern technologies, great durable products, great competition between corporates, squeezing margins etc. etc., Corporate won't take more loans, they don't want to default. It's natural in the current world of fast disruptions. These are the trends of current world. It affects jobs. Job security. Which is why universal basic income has been proposed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haarkarjeetgaye Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 (edited) 14 minutes ago, randomGuy said: You are talking about credit/loan growth rates. Divide it into retail loans and corporate loans. Retail loans are growing, corporate loans are not. When you have great efficiencies due to modern technologies, great durable products, great competition between corporates, squeezing margins etc. etc., Corporate won't take more loans, they don't want to default. It's natural in the current world of fast disruptions. These are the trends of current world. It affects jobs. Job security. Which is why universal basic income has been proposed. Right. So corporates not taking loans will affect jobs. That is what I was saying. Also if at all retail loans are growing isn't that a bigger cause for concern with the job market so sluggish and the trend is expected to be downward. How are retails loans growing? Edited May 20, 2017 by Haarkarjeetgaye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Haarkarjeetgaye said: Right. So corporates not taking loans will affect jobs. That is what I was saying. Right. From Govt's end, it is investing into infra. , Trying to create jobs in infra and building infra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haarkarjeetgaye Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, randomGuy said: Right. From Govt's end, it is investing into infra. , Trying to create jobs in infra and building infra. Thank you. Trying to correct the point above that we are financing when we are not. If go for can create crores of sustainable jobs from investment in infra, excellent because corporates will downsize and businesses are likely to shut down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Haarkarjeetgaye said: Right. So corporates not taking loans will affect jobs. That is what I was saying. Also if at all retail loans are growing isn't that a bigger cause for concern with the job market so sluggish and the trend is expected to be downward. How are retails loans growing? Retail loans are growing because the base is extremely small. For ex. , Household debt is 80% of gdp in developed nations. In india it is still 17%. Edited May 20, 2017 by randomGuy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haarkarjeetgaye Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, randomGuy said: Retail loans are growing because the base is extremely small. For ex. , Household debt is 80% of gdp in developed nations. In india it is still 17%. Right. So whatever the number, whether 17 pc as you said. With an excellent job growth rate it reached 17 pc. With a sluggish job great rate and job losses, if it is still growing, isn't that an issue in itself. The default will increase. How will they repay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Haarkarjeetgaye said: Right. So whatever the number, whether 17 pc as you said. With an excellent job growth rate it reached 17 pc. With a sluggish job great rate and job losses, if it is still growing, isn't that an issue in itself. The default will increase. How will they repay. No...17% means underpenetration...Means retail loan market is not developed to its full potential.... Reference point is the retail loans to gdp ratio in usa, europe, china etc. Edited May 20, 2017 by randomGuy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haarkarjeetgaye Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 19 minutes ago, randomGuy said: No...17% means underpenetration...Means retail loan market is not developed to its full potential.... Reference point is the retail loans to gdp ratio in usa, europe, china etc. Fair, but the loans to GDP ratio in other countries does not tie back to the ability of loan repayment by Indians. That is dependant on the job growth rate in India. So if our penetration level was low when we had plethora of jobs, how does it make sense to increase the penetration when the job market is bleak. How will the loan takers pay back the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomGuy Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 (edited) 30 minutes ago, Haarkarjeetgaye said: Fair, but the loans to GDP ratio in other countries does not tie back to the ability of loan repayment by Indians. That is dependant on the job growth rate in India. So if our penetration level was low when we had plethora of jobs, how does it make sense to increase the penetration when the job market is bleak. How will the loan takers pay back the money. Our penetration level was low (LoL) due to 1. people not exposed to or used to banking 2. High interest rates (getting lower now) 3. Loan to value (LTV) %age getting higher. Means if you are buying a house worth 50 lacs, they won't give you loan <35lac if LTVis 70%. Now are they increasing LTV for small loans. 4. Subsidy on small loans. Govt. Is giving subsidy (reducing interest rate from 8.5% to 4 % on economically weaker n Lower income groups). There is a combination of factors at play here. We are comfortably safe. There's no chance of mass default. Edited May 20, 2017 by randomGuy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zen Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 16 hours ago, surajmal said: Automation and by consequence Job losses mean, Universal basic income is a certainty before 2019. Universal / unconditional basic income, if implemented, needs to be supported by measures that control prices / inflation as well Govt will also need to be more efficient in collecting taxes and curbing corruption Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haarkarjeetgaye Posted May 21, 2017 Share Posted May 21, 2017 On 5/20/2017 at 3:58 PM, randomGuy said: Our penetration level was low (LoL) due to 1. people not exposed to or used to banking 2. High interest rates (getting lower now) 3. Loan to value (LTV) %age getting higher. Means if you are buying a house worth 50 lacs, they won't give you loan <35lac if LTVis 70%. Now are they increasing LTV for small loans. 4. Subsidy on small loans. Govt. Is giving subsidy (reducing interest rate from 8.5% to 4 % on economically weaker n Lower income groups). There is a combination of factors at play here. We are comfortably safe. There's no chance of mass default. Mathematically makes sense. But what will these people take loans for. There has to be sustainable small businesses for which these people will take loans. if one is not making money or earning on top of the loans taken, what is the means to return the loan. Also if you have some data on how the retail loans are increasing. Any articles , materials that will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
velu Posted May 21, 2017 Share Posted May 21, 2017 1 hour ago, Haarkarjeetgaye said: Mathematically makes sense. But what will these people take loans for. There has to be sustainable small businesses for which these people will take loans. if one is not making money or earning on top of the loans taken, what is the means to return the loan. Also if you have some data on how the retail loans are increasing. Any articles , materials that will help. you can check the quarterly results of some of the banks about loan growth .. after the demonitization loan growth hit all time low ( still a growth ) , but things are back to normal in q4 .. i checked icici , sbi and axis and they r doing pretty well in this part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Outsider Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 Do these numbers take into account the Gau Rakshaks who've been hired in a blitz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
velu Posted May 28, 2017 Share Posted May 28, 2017 3 hours ago, The Outsider said: Do these numbers take into account the Gau Rakshaks who've been hired in a blitz? this growth rate accounts only hindu males , rest of the population is not included Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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