coffee_rules Posted June 12, 2021 Share Posted June 12, 2021 4 hours ago, bharathh said: Noone doubted there would be a wave 2. The quantum of cases was the surprise here. At peak in the first wave we saw 50k cases... we jumped to 100k in a few days in wave 2. Who foresaw that? A lot confuse hindsight with foresight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khota Posted June 12, 2021 Share Posted June 12, 2021 9 hours ago, bharathh said: Pls tell me what it means Since you are the smart one please tell me what is it you dont understand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilander Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 (edited) 18 hours ago, bharathh said: Noone doubted there would be a wave 2. The quantum of cases was the surprise here. At peak in the first wave we saw 50k cases... we jumped to 100k in a few days in wave 2. Who foresaw that? If you make dumbass moves like no stress on social distancing, free romp to electioneering, free pass to all and sundry religious festivals lol yeah the peak would be like mount everest ofcourse. Unfathomable human suffering and what more Irreversible damage done to global perception on India. Edited June 13, 2021 by Vilander Khota 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khota Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Vilander said: If you make dumbass moves like no stress on social distancing, free romp to electioneering, free pass to all and sundry religious festivals lol yeah the peak would be like mount everest ofcourse. Unfathomable human suffering and what more Irreversible damage done to global perception on India. The buck never stops here. Vilander 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jf1gp_1 Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 oh lovely. Rather than keeping pressure on govt , congress digvijay decides to talk about 370 to remain relevant. Sometimes i wonder if Aiyar and he are paid by Bjp to open mouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bharathh Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 9 hours ago, Khota said: Since you are the smart one please tell me what is it you dont understand? I don't understand anything. It looks like some graphs from CDC... which is US based. I don't know what those legends mean. What is the sample data. What kind of model has been used to generate the graphs - is it regression, multi-linear or otherwise... How is std dev calculated - what are the parameters to adjust the sensitivity for this.. etc etc... I am impressed you are able to understand a lot from this.. which is why I am asking what this means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bharathh Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 4 hours ago, Vilander said: If you make dumbass moves like no stress on social distancing, free romp to electioneering, free pass to all and sundry religious festivals lol yeah the peak would be like mount everest ofcourse. Unfathomable human suffering and what more Irreversible damage done to global perception on India. When did anyone from either central/state govt say don't keep social distancing? Pls let me know. I am very happy to be corrected here. Where were any statements made about not being careful or saying that let's return to no masks etc? How many infections have been directly linked to Kumbh and electioneering? I am not saying it was right. That was a terrible dumb decision to allow the Kumbh and rallies... but why did Maharashtra, Kerala and Delhi have so many cases? There was 0 electioneering and religious festivals there. In fact they were the worst hit and the earliest hit as well!! Kerala is still reeling. What abt the "farmer" protests? Why were those jackasses not sent back home? Where were the appeals from the hindsight 2020 crowd to ask these dumbasses to go home and stop their squatting and destruction of one of our best highways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilander Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 1 minute ago, bharathh said: When did anyone from either central/state govt say don't keep social distancing? Pls let me know. I am very happy to be corrected here. Where were any statements made about not being careful or saying that let's return to no masks etc? How many infections have been directly linked to Kumbh and electioneering? I am not saying it was right. That was a terrible dumb decision to allow the Kumbh and rallies... but why did Maharashtra, Kerala and Delhi have so many cases? There was 0 electioneering and religious festivals there. In fact they were the worst hit and the earliest hit as well!! Kerala is still reeling. What abt the "farmer" protests? Why were those jackasses not sent back home? Where were the appeals from the hindsight 2020 crowd to ask these dumbasses to go home and stop their squatting and destruction of one of our best highways? So your point.is. Modi is faultless in going ahead with elections, letting religious gatherings flourish and generally claiming that they defeated covid when wave 2 was just getting started? Can't help it if that's your opinion just that it's not the truth unfortunately. Buck stops with Modi and he made mistakes lots of them. Singh bling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilander Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 3 hours ago, Khota said: The buck never stops here. Yup Modi is faultless. Lol its a Cult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bharathh Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Vilander said: So your point.is. Modi is faultless in going ahead with elections, letting religious gatherings flourish and generally claiming that they defeated covid when wave 2 was just getting started? Can't help it if that's your opinion just that it's not the truth unfortunately. Buck stops with Modi and he made mistakes lots of them. I guess you didn't read the part where I said the election rallies and mela were dumb ideas. Noone is saying Modi is faultless... but the common narrative here is that he is responsible for everything bad that happened. The state govts are happy to hang everything on Modi - as if they had nothing to do with anything! If you say no then it goes to the other extreme. He is faultless. Can't help if you can't see this. There is no middle ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khota Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 4 hours ago, bharathh said: I don't understand anything. It looks like some graphs from CDC... which is US based. I don't know what those legends mean. What is the sample data. What kind of model has been used to generate the graphs - is it regression, multi-linear or otherwise... How is std dev calculated - what are the parameters to adjust the sensitivity for this.. etc etc... I am impressed you are able to understand a lot from this.. which is why I am asking what this means. What I am able to understand is that these graph address your question of how would anyone know what is going to happen. These graphs are showing a predicted forecast with some tolerance and a high degree of confidence. The forecast shows the actual deaths are falling within the band of the graph of various projections which validates that if modelling done properly can be very predictive. If you claim you know about modelling then with few inputs you could have come up with a model which projected what was going to happen in India. For example when data available got better one of the source used Delayed Elasticity Model and their error was less than 10%. The other models are SEIR, Dynamic Growth etc. The bottom line is yes it can be predicted. So pick a source, and look at their methods. I can see the curves and understand those but the math behind that is not my cup of tea. There were at least 400 models worldwide with an accuracy of 7 to 13%. So with two Masters dont spout the misinformation of how would anyone know. They all knew what was going too happen. I am sure with two masters and with knowledge of stats, diff equ etc. you should be able to do modelling too. Instead of spending so much time on the forum put your double masters to use and make a model and share the results with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coffee_rules Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Khota said: What I am able to understand is that these graph address your question of how would anyone know what is going to happen. These graphs are showing a predicted forecast with some tolerance and a high degree of confidence. The forecast shows the actual deaths are falling within the band of the graph of various projections which validates that if modelling done properly can be very predictive. If you claim you know about modelling then with few inputs you could have come up with a model which projected what was going to happen in India. For example when data available got better one of the source used Delayed Elasticity Model and their error was less than 10%. The other models are SEIR, Dynamic Growth etc. The bottom line is yes it can be predicted. So pick a source, and look at their methods. I can see the curves and understand those but the math behind that is not my cup of tea. There were at least 400 models worldwide with an accuracy of 7 to 13%. So with two Masters dont spout the misinformation of how would anyone know. They all knew what was going too happen. I am sure with two masters and with knowledge of stats, diff equ etc. you should be able to do modelling too. Instead of spending so much time on the forum put your double masters to use and make a model and share the results with us. These models were for last year, and in US, not for second wave of this year in India Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khota Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 4 hours ago, Vilander said: Yup Modi is faultless. Lol its a Cult. Reminds me of Jones farm with everyone drinking coolaide. One guy with two masters is making a statement how could it be predicted? Vilander 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khota Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 Just now, coffee_rules said: These models were for last year, and in US, not for second wave of this year in India Who stopped the pensionjeevis to make a model for India? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bharathh Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 3 hours ago, Khota said: What I am able to understand is that these graph address your question of how would anyone know what is going to happen. These graphs are showing a predicted forecast with some tolerance and a high degree of confidence. The forecast shows the actual deaths are falling within the band of the graph of various projections which validates that if modelling done properly can be very predictive. If you claim you know about modelling then with few inputs you could have come up with a model which projected what was going to happen in India. For example when data available got better one of the source used Delayed Elasticity Model and their error was less than 10%. The other models are SEIR, Dynamic Growth etc. The bottom line is yes it can be predicted. So pick a source, and look at their methods. I can see the curves and understand those but the math behind that is not my cup of tea. There were at least 400 models worldwide with an accuracy of 7 to 13%. So with two Masters dont spout the misinformation of how would anyone know. They all knew what was going too happen. I am sure with two masters and with knowledge of stats, diff equ etc. you should be able to do modelling too. Instead of spending so much time on the forum put your double masters to use and make a model and share the results with us. Pls show me anywhere - any model that shows what was supposed to happen in India before march. 1 would be nice. You have spouted a bunch of nonsense in your prev post about interpreting graphs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khota Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 31 minutes ago, bharathh said: Pls show me anywhere - any model that shows what was supposed to happen in India before march. 1 would be nice. You have spouted a bunch of nonsense in your prev post about interpreting graphs. Your ignorance is appalling. First you claim it cannot be predicted. I showed you everyone has predicted it within a margin an error of 13%. CDC job is to do it for US. They are not going to do it state by state for India. That is the job of Indian govt. and the pensionjeevis to do. You can take your two masters and I can tell you exactly what to do with those. Never ever make a dumb statement that it could not be be predicted. You have been caught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bharathh Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 44 minutes ago, Khota said: Your ignorance is appalling. First you claim it cannot be predicted. I showed you everyone has predicted it within a margin an error of 13%. CDC job is to do it for US. They are not going to do it state by state for India. That is the job of Indian govt. and the pensionjeevis to do. You can take your two masters and I can tell you exactly what to do with those. Never ever make a dumb statement that it could not be be predicted. You have been caught. I said show me where it was predicted for India. You didn't show it. You made claims saying scientists predicted wave 2 being severe and that this govt did not listen to eminent ppl that predicted wave 2 with accuracy - False You posted some random graphs from the Center for Disease Control and said see- working model to predict. It predicts nothing in India - much less for wave 2. In fact you cannot even make out for what region this is predicting deaths. Then you say someone should have done this for India again coming back to the fact that there were no projections from anyone predicting the severity of wave 2. Basically, you keep reiterating the pt that what happened in wave 2 in India was not predicted by anyone but don't seem to realise this! You keep parroting the same nonsense - like 70% of the country should have been vaccinated. Wave 2 could have been predicted. Blah blah... Could it have been done? No. What happened in wave 2 - esp with the way the numbers spiked up suddenly was unprecedented. Esp for a country that appeared to have done well in Wave 1. This was a black swan event. In fact, despite everyone realising that there will be a wave 3 and perhaps 4 - noone can predict when this will happen and how high the numbers will go to. When the spike for wave 3 begins - based on past information and parameters such as # of vaccinated population, # of vulnerable pop etc. a model for wave 3 can begin to be constructed. This will have a high margin for error initially and close to the peak things will get clearer. However, life doesn't conform neatly to a bell curve. It just looks that way at the end. Data science and modelling is still a very inaccurate science - esp for something as new as Covid. We don't have enough base data to predict waves - esp with the way the virus is mutating. Each mutation requires studies of its own. Mathematical models are highly theoretical. At the moment they are still better at describing something that has already happened - rather than predicting what will happen. Pls have the last word though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coffee_rules Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 (edited) 34 minutes ago, bharathh said: I said show me where it was predicted for India. You didn't show it. You made claims saying scientists predicted wave 2 being severe and that this govt did not listen to eminent ppl that predicted wave 2 with accuracy - False You posted some random graphs from the Center for Disease Control and said see- working model to predict. It predicts nothing in India - much less for wave 2. In fact you cannot even make out for what region this is predicting deaths. Then you say someone should have done this for India again coming back to the fact that there were no projections from anyone predicting the severity of wave 2. Basically, you keep reiterating the pt that what happened in wave 2 in India was not predicted by anyone but don't seem to realise this! You keep parroting the same nonsense - like 70% of the country should have been vaccinated. Wave 2 could have been predicted. Blah blah... Could it have been done? No. What happened in wave 2 - esp with the way the numbers spiked up suddenly was unprecedented. Esp for a country that appeared to have done well in Wave 1. This was a black swan event. In fact, despite everyone realising that there will be a wave 3 and perhaps 4 - noone can predict when this will happen and how high the numbers will go to. When the spike for wave 3 begins - based on past information and parameters such as # of vaccinated population, # of vulnerable pop etc. a model for wave 3 can begin to be constructed. This will have a high margin for error initially and close to the peak things will get clearer. However, life doesn't conform neatly to a bell curve. It just looks that way at the end. Data science and modelling is still a very inaccurate science - esp for something as new as Covid. We don't have enough base data to predict waves - esp with the way the virus is mutating. Each mutation requires studies of its own. Mathematical models are highly theoretical. At the moment they are still better at describing something that has already happened - rather than predicting what will happen. Pls have the last word though Experts predicted 10 million deaths in India last year based in the same modeling, it is not exact science. Plus no amount of modeling can predict exact. It has a best case and worst case scenario. Even if some experts predicted 2nd wave in India, there were grounds to ignore them based on how it turned out in India during wave 1 and not shutdown the country like they did in wave 1. In February of this year., experts were investigating why Indians were not impacted as much as Scandinavians and they were giving free advice to not vaccinate all as it is not needed based on wave 1 experience in India. Edited June 13, 2021 by coffee_rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bharathh Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 According to @Khota that is still a failed model though. According to him at least 1B ppl got Corona... coffee_rules 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilander Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 7 hours ago, bharathh said: Could it have been done? No. What happened in wave 2 - esp with the way the numbers spiked up suddenly was unprecedented. Esp for a country that appeared to have done well in Wave 1. This was a black swan event. What is your point? there were younger people getting sicker at end of wave 1 a good govt should have been worried about it and acted on it. A PM and HM job is to work for the country as PM and HM not work for a party as election campaigners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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